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Wave exhaustionThe main purpose of analyzing waves is to understand when the current wave is exhausted aka overextended aka overbought aka oversold. What is every1 seem to miss is that exhaustion is not based exclusively on "price gone too far", but also on "too much time passed" and "not much volume was traded" as well. That's one of the main reasons why your comparative analysis, divergences on so called "indicators" do not work properly. It simply can't. These methods do not gain time & volume information from the data. When you analyze order flow on any resolution, be it 1 minute, 5 years or tick chart, you're interested in 2 waves: current wave and *the very last (previous) wave in the same direction . * including the imaginary waves Don't forget to turn in log scale when it's needed! You compare these 2 as the current wave develops and keep updating the answer to the binary question, "which of these two waves is weaker". Strength of a wave = it's ability to continue. Every wave starts strong and goes weaker and weaker, the factors are: 1) Time. Horizontal size of a wave (in bars), more time (more bars) - weaker ; 2) Range. Vertical size of a wave, higher range - weake r; 3) Volume, or inferred volume. You sum up all the volume within a wave, or sum up all the bar sizes within a wave. Less volume - weaker .* * in order not to sum up anything within a wave yourself, here you can turn in volume/range bars and simply count em. And from that moment it's like "Best of 3" comparison. 1) Time. Wave A 10 bars, wave B 5 bars. Wave B is stronger; 2) Range. Wave A 546 points, wave B 890 points. Wave A is stronger; 3) Volume. Wave A 10k, wave wave B 8k. Wave A is stronger; So at that point, wave A was stronger = wave B was weaker. This will be giving you a binary answer which wave is weaker. When the current wave becomes weaker than the last wave in the same direction, current wave is considered exhausted. P.S.: wave start in time (first bar of the wave) is the level origin itself or the first bar that touched a level if we talked about a new wave starting from an already positioned level, or about a wave started after clearing a positioned level. The more you'll think about the more it'll make sense. An example. Remember seeing fast price jumps? After some, the price reverses very fast and goes back, after others prices continues in the direction of the jump. In most of the cases the current wave (the jump) gets exhausted in terms of price, but not exhausted in terms of time (the jump was very fast). So in terrms of time and price both waves are 50/50. What is different is volume. If the current wave (the jump) had a huge volume, overall it's still not exhausted, hence it continues. Sounds familiar? Sounds logical? Just the last simple and obvious thing, in most cases you won't need to calculate sum volumes/ranges, usually at the moment of analysis the current wave is already longer and higher than the previous one in the same direction, hence the current wave is already exhausted. Yessir
SP:SPXEducation
by gorx1
1
Imaginary wavesAgain as with the levels, first ima tell how to locate both real & imaginary waves, then I'll explain the principle itself, what are they, why it works etc, why we need em & how to use em. It's really easier this way. Let's start with imaginary waves. First, pls read the linked "Imaginary levels: fair price aka value", it has an explanation and another common example & about the imaginary levels. As with imaginary levels, imaginary waves are, well, imagined xd, when there's nothing else, but a decision has to be made. Look at the chart as if you're in 2k13 (when ASAP dropped Trap Lord) as in the previous example in the linked study, we have an overridden wave 520-1923.7, we have an imagined fair price level somewhere around 1200. When we have an overridden wave -> we have the imaginary fair price level somewhere ~ in the middle of this wave -> that fair price level divides the real wave into 2 imaginary waves. As with imaginary levels, imaginary waves can be used for further processing.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by gorx1
West Texas Crude(WTI )....Positive Swans, Bats and Wolfves Picking bottoms particularly recently in the oil (WTI) complex, sometimes produces sticky fingers. That said, one could build a technical analysis case for a bottom formation at current levels. A) Longer term we have a completion of a Harmonic Bat. (insert) B) Shorter term turn we have : 1) A completed Wolfe Wave 2) Black Swan harmonic formation 3) An ABCD formation going back to last August. 4) Oct/Nov double top target hit 5) Mildly positive momentum divergence So how do you play this. I would certainly give WTI a chance to find a bottom and advance upward A penetration of 3 of the Wolfe Wave provides an entry point at $73.65(marked) Then a Wolfe Wave Target is set up for late January at the $85 area. Using the Black Swan harmonic we get targets as marked. If this the best way to play bottoming oil ? Probably not but its a signpost to play your favorite horse. Please note... Fed activity next week, year end illiquidity and Eastern European events should magnify WTI's volatility going forward. Good Luck and I will update as needed. Not investment advice, do your own due diligence. S.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by Steve666
Niocorps Developments - the Big One CountThis Eliott Wave Count of Niocoorp Develoopments reflects a bullish longterm Supercycle upward impuls pattern of the marcet. Wave 3 upward impuls pattern should lead the PPS of the shares above 106 Dollar propably higher, after the a-b-c running correction of the past months. If the abc correction should last a little bit longer the 0.84 Dollar are an exiting entry point. Bu this scenario of a wave c extension within the running correction is not necessary. PPS can explode anytime within the start of the Wave 3 upward impuls. Note: This is no advice to buy or to sell a stock. Stock can rise or fall. Each investor is acting on his own risk.
NLong
by Indextrader24
1
GOLD Bearish price action in short term!A strong rejection was evident in gold at the $1810 level; which if you have seen my previous ideas on the longer term elliot wave count on Gold, there is valid argument to suggest a larger B wave top was formed at $1810 whereby a macro C wave down can occur and the waves shown on chart are the beginning of the subwaves this larger C wave move. From the posited B wave top gold was rejected in a 5 wave impulse of which a lower high was then formed suggesting a 3rd wave impulse down can occur and a bear trend formation. This is most likely the 5 wave count of a higher degree Wave 1 to the downside which in previous ideas would take out the $1615 low in a zig zag formation. Some likely targets for this 5 wave count to complete would be the 2.618 at ~$1695 with a 3rd wave possibly finishing at the 1.618 extension at ~$1736. As this idea plays out there will be more information as to assesing where price lies in the wave count and the clarification of sub wave posiioning and degrees. Please like and follow for more Elliot Wave Analysis!
TVC:GOLDShort
by NICKVASS10
Finish the wolfe wave around 1448Target box near term is blue box with point target 1448, solid green trajectory should respect timeline drawn, dashed extensions is just illustrative that it will bounce after the move and subsequent retracement. Has resistance at current level which it will break with explosive upside in coming days - has been re-accumulating for over a week. The pullback from 1400s will likely be a backup/retest of the accumulation range breakout, this is the SoS
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by JerryManders
1
GOLD longer term analysis (Bullish)Gold has had a strong uptrend since puting in a low of $1040 which preceeded to an impulsive wave structure to the upside with a 5 wave structure evident; a clear 3 wave structure can be seen in Micro Wave 2 before a strong Micro Wave 3 occured to the upside which was the largest and most impulsive wave of the Micro degree thus following the elliot wave rules whereby wave 3 cannot be the smallest wave in an impulse. The Miniscule Wave 5 was an extremely extended wave which can explain why a truncated Micro Wave 5 occured. Interestingly, a similar fractal can be observed in the Micro Wave 5; whereby similariliy an ending diagonal structure occured (overlapping waves) with an extended wave 5 occured much like the previous mentioned Sub Micro Wave 5 withing the Micro Wave 3 occurence. The Micro 4th wave appears to be a truncated WXY correction down, before a truncated/ double top at the $2075 region occured. In terms of time since the Micro cycle completed, price has only been correcting for a short period of time relative to the impulse therefore it is unlikely that gold can make a new high without correcting for a substantial time relative to the Micro degree cycle to form a Wave 2 bottom of a larger Minor Degree Wave where much higher prices can be anticipated in a Minor Wave 3. From the Micro Wave 5 top, price has come down in 5 forming an A wave and a likely B wave corrective structure has occured and a C wave down can be expected. There are some key levels to look out for in terms of a C wave bottom using fib retracenment, fib extensions and also general support levels. fib retracement: 0.5 - $1562 0.618 - ~$1450 fib extension of A wave: 0.618 - $1560 0.786 - $1504 1 - $1422 Support levels: $1532-$1555 & extremely key $1450 & 1350 Please like and follow for more Elliot Wave Analysis I will post lower time frame analysis on gold
TVC:GOLD
by NICKVASS10