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Nafta

NAFTA taking centre stage=> The recent downside has unlocked the key support at 1.27xx at the 50% retracement of the current rally. => Below 1.3025 means we will see a test at the more meaningful support zone - the August low => To the upside we don't see much opportunity here as resistance at 1.3110 caps the move immediately. => Trump has given the narrative of NAFA talks "going well" and naturally Canada will be forced to agree, no matter what Trudeau says.... => Here CAD is starting to look very heavy and will be forced to devalue to offset the losses in trade via NAFTA. => GL all
by ridethepig
1
Strong USD Takes its Toll on AUDUSDAlthough the upbeat tone of the RBA gave AUDUSD some respite, this was short lived dollar buying continued in a frenzy. The greenback sustained gains against a basket of major currencies over NAFTA trade talks, strong economic data, and general haven flows. At the time of this writing, AUDUSD was trading at 0.7179, near the low of 2017. We will find resistance from levels from above including the following: 0.7336 from gaps 0.7382 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods 0.7465 from highs and lows over the past 30 periods 0.7678 from highs and lows We will find support from levels from below including: 0.7169 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods Lets look at some technical analysis for AUDUSD. Volatility is higher than usual, but still has room to go. The RSI is 38, indicating that we are in a bear trend, but not yet oversold. The MACD is below the signal line, but not to an extreme. This suggests we are in a bear phase with room to go. AUDUSD is below the 50 period SMA, indicating a bear trend. The ADX indicator shows a bear trend. The Kovach Reversals Indicator suggests that we are oversold. Bull Score: 2 Bear Score: 4 Ranging Score: 0 AUDUSD intraday appears to be ranging at the immediate moment, as the data has been priced in. Some bearish indications suggest that we may see another breakdown soon. We will find resistance from levels from above including the following: 0.7182 from gaps 0.7197 from sma 50 0.7229 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods 0.7291 from gaps 0.7316 from highs and lows over the past 100 periods 0.7346 from gaps 0.7363 from highs and lows Levels from below include: 0.7159 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods Lets look at some technical analysis for AUDUSD intraday. Volatility is slightly higher than usual, but not to an extreme. The RSI is 43, indicating that we are in a bear trend, but not yet oversold. The MACD suggests that we are in a bearish phase, but that we are not oversold, yet. AUDUSD intraday is below the 50 period SMA, which indicates a bear trend, but not oversold yet. Additionally, AUDUSD intraday is under the 100 period SMA, which is currently at 0.7232, indicating bearishness. And further, the longer term 100 period SMA is about even with the 50 period SMA, suggesting AUDUSD intraday is ranging. The ADX does not indicate a trend, i.e. we are ranging. We are below the central moving average of the Kovach Reversals Indicator at 0.7191, and fairly close to it. If we lose momentum, we'll have support from the lower bound of the KRI at 0.7158. Bull Score: 0 Bear Score: 4 Ranging Score: 3
Short
by quantguy
The USD Rallies Against CAD on Good US Data and NAFTAUSDCAD has been extremely bullish lately, on extremely strong manufacturing data today. It has retraced all of its losses which were caused by CAD strength due to hopes for successful NAFTA negotiations. Currently, Trump has made numerous hints that Canada may not even be a part of NAFTA anymore, and the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau has fired back saying that he’d rather not be a part of NAFTA than have a deal that didn’t benefit Canada. The current price of USDCAD is 1.3178, which is dangerously close to the upper bound of the Kovach Reversals indicator at 1.3186. We should definitely see some resistance at this level. Technical analysis for USDCAD is as follows. Volatility is lower than usual, but not to an extreme. The RSI indicates that we are in a bull trend, but not overbought yet. The MACD is above the signal line, but not to an extreme. This suggests we may have more room to appreciate. USDCAD is under the 50 period SMA, which is currently at 1.31, indicating bearishness. The ADX does not indicate a trend, i.e. we are ranging. Bull Score: 2 Bear Score: 1 Ranging Score: 2 The technical analysis for USDCAD intraday is very strong. We see many indications of a strong bull trend. It would be wise to buy on a dip. The technicals for USDCAD intraday are as follows. Volatility is slightly higher than usual, but not to an extreme. The RSI indicates that we are in a bull trend, but not overbought yet. The MACD suggests that we are in a bullish phase but not overbought yet. USDCAD intraday is above the 50 period SMA by quite a bit, suggesting that we are overbought. Also, USDCAD intraday is above the 100 period SMA by quite a bit, suggesting that we are overbought. Finally, the 50 period SMA is even with the 100 period SMA, indicating longer term ranging. The ADX indicator is at 64, which suggests a strong bull trend for USDCAD intraday. Intraday, the Kovach OBV and the Kovach Chande are quite strong, necessitating that one wait for a pullback before entering a trade in this product.
Long
by quantguy
NAFTA remains on the Agenda=> CAD received the bid towards the end of last week on the back of falling political uncertainty as Canadian and US officials came 'closer' to reaching a trade deal. => Here the US is bullying once more on the foreign policy side and Canada are being forced to agree. => The BOC on deck this week will keep rates unchanged as widely expected by markets and will be a muted a event. => Politics is in the drivers seat here and a positive trade narrative was previously being priced into the currency will be a difficult story to continue selling as Canada are being forced to bow down to US demands.(edited) => JPY is the obvious cross the trade this with at present. For similar reasons to those tracking the RUBJPY and ZARJPY trades we will see flows into JPY driven via uncertainty, => GL
Short
by ridethepig
2
Please BEAR with me : Canada's Inflation and NAFTA dealMy trading belief is that when the price hits the certain range (USDCAD Avg Monthly Range = 300+ish pips), by default it should reverse minimum 60% of the recent move (some of you call it "a retracement") if not the entire move. Candle patterns that I look for in a way to confirm a reversal/retracement is on its way is Piercing Candles or Engulfing Candles. One of the rules I set is that the retracement/reversal bias upon hitting the trading range (in this case, Avg Monthly Range) remain true (the original upside target marked by the red 'X' on the chart) UNTIL one of these candles occurred to invalidate the bias (i.e a bullish retracement bias will be invalidated by a bearish engulfing/piercing candle) The bearish engulfing candle occurred due to the Canadian inflation numbers. If the inflation numbers are that high, the expectation for the Bank of Canada to hike interest rate in September might as well be increased. Moreover, I've read news that the NAFTA deal can be sealed sometime this month which adds more reason to set the Canadian Loonie bias from Bearish to Bullish (BEARISH USDCAD)
Short
by sufiansaid
SHORT NZD/CAD NAFTA MS TRADECAD should outperform NZD over the coming weeks. Constructive NAFTA news suggests that the US may be getting closer to an acceptable agreement with its trading partners, which should lead to a continued re-pricing of the trade risk premium. Risks to a more dovish RBNZ continue, with the new Policy Targets Agreement likely to add a second employment mandate and potentially offer specific language on the currency. Data in NZ also remain uncompelling, including the business PMI and GDP. Positioning also favors the trade, with the market remaining long NZD while CAD sentiment is net bearish. A risk to the trade is a dovish shift from the BoC, leading to CAD weakness. - Morgan Stanley
Short
by itzbert
USDMXN Horizontal Consolalidation Channel This week has been highly volatile for the Dolar/Peso testing much higher than the current range as well as lower. The current consolidation is between 18.60-70. Beware of any price action bellow 18.60 as we could make a bearish run to the lower end of 18 or on the opposite end beyond 18.8 to 19. I think there has been a lot of news affecting the dollar recently and NAFTA negotiations will enter the 7th round next week. What we are seeing is a small respite before further volatility.
by GibbsGibbleton
USDMXN Horizontal Channel NAFTA optimism meets resurgance of USD strenght. The price movement seems to have consolidated on a horizontal zone between 18.62 and 18.54, that is still a very widespread but I believe this familiar price range is a welcomed pause for exotic currency traders after much volatility in the MXN market. Is this the calm before the storm? Trump address later today and the beginning of Mexican presidential election will ensure the volatility returns soon.
by GibbsGibbleton
1
#USDCAD: US Dollar 'Short' 1.1950, then 'Long' 1.2510 OANDA:USDCAD Observations 1)During 2017, USDCAD experienced 4-Massive Bearish Candles: January, May, June, July, and December. 2)When you zoom those months' performance, you find that all shorts from 'High to Low' could have banked a max accumulation of (600) pips. 3)January 2018, trades from 1.2590 to 1.2282 which translates only to (290) pips meaning; if TVC:DXY keeps bleeding at least until it lands near 86.85, then USDCAD has all the ingredients to drift lower and hit 1.20s, there I could see a 'TRAP' touching 1.1915-1.1880 region and reversing. 4)Never forget NAFTA 'Gallo Tapao' (Latino quote to describe a strong player that everybody knew was there from day 1) Stand: Short to squeeze extra +-300 pips, then building longs towards 61.8% Fibonacci level 1.2550 or from low calculate +480 pips max, that's it.
Short
by josericaurte.jaen
$USDCAD into Trudeau-Trump$USDCAD likes to do inverted Vs. Ramp, consolidate, fade. So the mirror fractal isn't a bad fit. Also it's in a bullish descending wedge. Trump-Trudeau and the Wilbur Ross confirmation today can only be bad for NAFTA, but as often happens, (GBP & EUR into Brexit), counterintuitive trading occurs before the event. So we have three technicals, and one fundamental reason to support this. The possible spike down is a problem for cash trades (buy 1.2950 would need 200 pips). Suggest an March monthly option, or layer-buy (buy 1.2950, add 1.2900, 100pt SLs ...)
Long
by elroytrader1