Naked
Continuing to Ride the DowntrendSince mid 2015, USDJPY has seen significant declines--recently hitting the 104 handle. With that said, there is no indication of any kind of slowdown or potential reversals to the upside given the recent impulsive-corrective structure on the daily to intraday charts. As seen on the chart, the red boxes highlight the impulsive moves that consistently create new lows while the green corrective areas are consolidation areas with weak price action before the trend continues to head lower.
We have recently hit another consolidation area between the 103.5 - 105 level aka another correction zone. Price looks like it is consolidating in anticipation for another move to the downside. The upper end of this consolidation zone around 104.5-105 offers an excellent opportunity to join in on this very prevalent downtrend. Conservative traders can target the lower end of this range at just above 103.5 as their target while more aggressive traders can look to continue riding this trend.
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Nazar.
GBP/AUD Potentially a start of a fresh downtrend!Multiple confluences such as; Higher low not being projected, Lower high being projected, the weekly timeframe bearish candle has engulfed the last bullish and almost the previous one before that, weekly price action has bounced and retested off the 618% FIB possibly stating that the previous uptrend has reached its exaustion point.
Weak Corrective Pullback Hints at Continued DownsideSince late January, USDCAD has seen a significant counter-trend move to the downside after a sizable bullish run. On it's way down, price briefly found support at the 1.3390 handle (the first blue box) before breaking through it shortly after. After breaking through to the downside, this level got retested twice (the next 2 blue boxes) and met significant selling pressure which had formed a new low. Since then, we have seen a bullish corrective move slowly drifting back toward that major level.
This recent strong impulsive bearish move and the lack of any real buying pressure hints at another potential bearish continuation. An ideal place to sell weak corrective moves is the 1.3390 handle. However, given the significance of this level, if volatility increases and this level is broken, this would also be a solid level to buy on retests.
And be cautious of spikes in volatility around NFP.
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Impulsive Corrective Series Hints at potential upsideEURUSD has formed a series of impulsive and corrective moves that shows us exactly how much power the bulls currently possess. To clarify, impulsive moves tend to be "strong and fast" while corrective moves tend to be "weak and slow". This directly correlations to the strength of each party's hand. The bulls are in control right now. The push from the bulls are powerful while the pullbacks from the bears only exhibit weakness.
Earlier this week we began a corrective move downwards that looks to be drifting toward the established support at 1.106 - 1.108. This is the same level where the first corrective move met heavy buying interest. This level has proven to be reliable in the past and provides an excellent opportunity to get long for the next impulsive leg.
P.S. Beware of spikes in volatility around NFP this upcoming week.
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Nazar.
Bullish reaction off role reversal levelWithin a steady uptrend, price initially struggled to break above the 38.5 level. However, the immense bullish pressure resulted in a breakout to the upside and a brief intraday pullback shortly after. Price preceded to create a new high and has pulled back to that same role reversal level (now support). It has formed a notable reaction hinting at potential upside.
Conservative traders can seek to get long at current level and more aggressive traders can look to buy into another dip toward the support level.
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EURUSD: SR line at 1.12700.1.12700 is a nice round number for a resistant level. Price has break the support level recently and I'm expecting the price to retrace to 1.12700 resistant area. I'm also expecting the price to be rejected by the level (first touch). I would go for a short position after price has reached the new resistant level.