NAS
Amazon's Periodic HabitsOn the log scale, there's a clear trend channel. However, the action that occurs within each quarter varies predictably-- after about 40 days into the quarter, any trend that has formed gets broken. Green vertical lines are a day after quarterly reports, white lines are when the trend for that period gets broken. Arrows are overall market events, which cause anomalies in the charting. My prediction at this point is that since we broke out of a longer pattern (light blue line), it will follow the angle of the trend channel until the next overarching trend emerges, as it did starting 9/4/15, where the longer pattern (red line) ended.
IBM's well oiled wheel could be about to drop off. Just read this article on www.marketwatch.com
"IBM
• Sector: technology
• Market value: $160 billion
• 2014 return: -13%
While most large caps have risen from October’s slide, IBM has been left behind. That means a great buying opportunity for long-term investors.
IBM is one of those mega-cap tech stocks that have a place in almost every portfolio. For starters, there’s the 2.7% dividend yield and a history of payouts since 1916. There’s also the stability that comes with a company that does roughly $100 billion in annual sales and sports over $14 billion in cash and investments on its balance sheet."
Source full article : www.marketwatch.com
One could dig real deep and find all sorts of justifiable reasons why such reputable company should continue it's upward price trajectory in to indefinite future.
However, from the price history on this chart, I suspect that we have just completed a 5 wave cycle that could be also a larger 5 wave cycle that began from bottom of 1929-1932 Wall Street crash. See the chart of Dow as surrogate for the sector.
Even ignoring the price history before 1980, having completed 5 wave cycle, EW guidelines suggest price correcting to wave 4 low of one cycle degree lower. That suggest a ball park figure in the region of $70-50 area.
Is it the right time to buy this stock or many others like it. I think not. Rather wait for few more year and pick it up at bargain basement price may be $50 or lower.
Or better still consider long term far out of the money PUT Options and sit back.
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