5-3-5 or 3-3-5 corrective? It appears we have a 5-3-5 "zig zag" corrective wave down to the QE-era trendlines .( TLs ) The idea is invalid if it breaks out of the pitchfork trigger line. There are only 3 types of corrective waves, 5-3-5, 3-3-5 & 3-3-3-3-3. Since this correction started with a 5 wave down it should follow the 5-3-5 pattern.
However, there's also a decent chance the 3 wave is the first leg of a 3-3-5 "flat" corrective wave. Still a short here for 3 waves down at least. Plotted some scenarios in yellow. 3-3-5 would obey the inside pitchfork more, which will be watched closely near the fibs and bottom.
Technical Analysis:
We've had 3 weeks of resistance and failed the YTD daily chart bull TL. Volume dropped off sharply near the top indicating reversal. Weekly Stoch is rolling over. Failed the daily linear regression curve shown in orange. Anytime it crosses under the reg curve seems to be a safe short swing for 2+ weeks out. Sometimes it chops sideways for a week or so after first crossing under from a bull run. However, during the bear market it has always continued further down after first break. If it does violate this trend, then it's an indication the bear market really is over.
Fundamental analysis:
-DXY had a healthy bounce off the 50% retrace and broke the bear trend. It's looking to test 110 next. It's been 5 months of selling, mostly exacerbated by $80T in FX swaps that got trapped and capitulated. That's mostly settled now.
-Oil and NG both seem to have made support near trend lows. Oil's 20+yr fork median is around $70 and it's been ranging 70-80. NG is under it's 33yr POC of $2.57 and under the years long VAL. Both look like good investments. near the bottom of the current ranges.
-Some food commodities are still rising in price YTD, such as: eggs and egg products; coffee ; cocoa , & sugar
-Housing prices have dropped over 10% since the Summer and it could snowball into a bigger problem that forces people to finance at higher rates. Mortgage Backed Securities look like they're taking another leg down. Meanwhile personal Savings are near all-time lows and credit card delinquency is nearing ATHs. Along with slowing growth, layoffs and poor guidance; it sure sounds like a recession!
-CPI from the previous month was revised up then both CPI and PPI came in hot. Then Bullard mentioned 50bps rates still being on the table, which would indicate a misstep and panic on the Fed's part if that happens. The market currently has the terminal rate of 5.25% priced in, but that obviously isn't happening anymore. I would expect 6% terminal rate if they keep 25bps hikes extended or 7% if they go back to 50bps.
As the market slowly realizes the light at the end of the tunnel is much further away, they will panic and finally capitulate. It most likely bottoms around Sept Trip Witch if we get 50bps. Maybe late spring early Summer if just a few 25bps extensions.
NAS
NASDAQ Analysis (LONG BIAS)Hello all!
NAS100 is looking INTERESTING!
After a long sideways movement on this pair for the past week or so..
I have marked Liquidity and Imbalances, as well as my POIs of course! ;)
Will monitor LTF, wait for confirmation, and execute a LONG position targeting 13200!
Take care!
NASDAQ can move higher? 🦐NASDAQ price has experienced a bullish impulse, retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level, and has since moved back up to the 0.382 level therefore we can look for a potential long entry.
To do this, we should first identify a key resistance level that has acted as a barrier to price movement in the past. This level should be in close proximity to the current price level, and ideally should be a level that has been tested at least twice before.
Once the resistance level has been identified, we can look for a breakout above this level. If the price breaks above the resistance level and continues to rise, it may indicate that there is significant buying pressure in the market. This could provide a good opportunity to enter a long position according to the CPS Plancton's strategy rules.
NAS100The NAS100 index appears to be bullish, as it has been displaying a consistent upward trend in recent times. This is largely attributed to positive market sentiment and a strong earnings season, which have contributed to the overall bullish outlook. Additionally, technical analysis of the NAS100 chart suggests a potential continuation of the bullish trend, further reinforcing the optimistic outlook for the index
NAS100 OUTLOOK keeping a eye on nas at these levels after coming off a major pull back and making a lower high i want to see what price does around that 12500-12600 level if it holds we can start seeing another lower high which and another push down towards the 12100 level which is higher time frame orderblock area as well do keep in mind my biased is bearish at the moment due to the fact of lower highs and also a change of structure aka "choch" but doesnt mean we cant see a retrace up b4 coming down
now on the other hand if price breaks this 15 min orderblock we can see nas make a push towards 12600-12700 which is around the trend lines and also the pivot high for tomorrow so im watching as this develops just something to keep a eye on
NAS Outlook 1/29First week of February should be interesting as NFP is on friday. Here is what i am seeing in the market from a liquidity perspective. Would like to ultimately see price melt. But it can do a number of things between now and Friday. I am a buyer early as I think another high is likely. Otherwise will be observing as usual.
I post the following on my channel:
- Video style weekly outlooks
- Video style weekly recaps
- Risk management techniques
- Psychological conditioning techniques
Stay tuned
Nassy Longs Re-Entry 1/30/23Will execute this 0.5% & take this to the Gap.
Lets see Kings & Queens.
Lets have a blessed week!
NASSY LongsTook this opening price & stayed on the sidelines until the market tipped it hands to us.
Best entry was the FVG below the pictured entry. Looking to take this to Sundays Gap. Fair Value. Re-price there & should sell off, but will await to see what market wants to tip off
US500 Outlook 1/15Looking for indices to fall early and give a good entry for longs, to then chase the
buyside.
NAS Outlook 1/85 minutes ago Seeing reasons for NAS to go down this week, however, this is at odds with DXY and the two are usually somewhat inversely correlated. Will be seeing what opportunities actually present, but this is what i see at the present moment. Slow news week till thursday so dont be surprised by a mon-wed consolidation/liquidity range building following friday's expansion.
NAS 2023 HTF OutlookHere is what im seeing on indicies for the next year, overall bearish, but can see bullishness early in the year in order to put in a high. I think the market will go for that 2020 low. which sucks from an economic perspective and what that will actually mean for everyday people.
✅NAS100 STRONG DOWNTREND|SHORT🔥
✅NAS100 will now make a pullback
To retest the broken key level
But the index is in the downtrend
So I think it will keep falling
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Microsoft Corp. Goes Bullish? ... The New World Order!You know how you get to see all the headlines when browsing through TradingView's homepage, impossible to avoid.
We love it because it gives me so many ideas...
"Microsoft Better Than Hot Bread".
"Microsoft Develops New Air Conditioner That Will Override The Fed".
"Microsoft Comes Up With Better Than Bacon".
Etc.
It is very misleading, that's our point.
Whenever the market is about to crash, all the news website start publishing bullish headlines.
Whenever the market is about to rise, all the news website start publishing bearish headlines.
Today we have so many bullish headlines for the stock market, the SPX, etc.
See what happens in a few days.
Microsoft Crop. (MSFT) uptrend is ending after 13 years.
This can turn into a simple, normal, classic correction or maybe it can get really bad.
We are looking at the monthly timeframe and MSFT is still trading below EMA10. Bearish.
Clear downtrend since November 2021. Bearish.
Decreasing volume. Bearish.
What an incredible ride... Can't wait to see how it will all develop...
Sam-FTX just got arrested in Bahamas...
Out of crisis comes opportunity.
Once we hit rock bottom, the only place left to go is up.
It is the end of an era.
The birth of a new order.
Order out of chaos.
A New World Order?
Namaste.
Tesla, Inc. | Last 2022 Analysis (Going Below 100!)I keep asking myself... Are these companies really going to crash?
Is everything really going to hell?
If we go by past history then yes...
I've been reading charts for a few years now and when looking at them long-term, especially the traditional financial markets, they read like an open book.
If the signals are pointing down it goes down.
Only cryptocurrency is so tricky that the signals are always fake and mixed up but not TradFi, oh no... Whatever you see on the chart, that is exactly what goes on.
Enough ranting, we are here for the Tesla stock. TSLA.
Right now TSLA is trading right above critical support.
If support breaks, much, much lower it goes.
The critical support is the 0.618 Fib. retracement/Golden ratio, matching MA200 of course.
Maybe we will have nuclear war or Covid 3.0.
The charts predict the future.
Some sort of event needs to happen, needs to take place for this crash that we are reading here to show up.
Maybe it will be political instability as the censorship revelations pile up.
Or maybe some sort of assassination, something we haven't seen in a wild or a revolution... Who knows.
Let's hope Cryptocurrency can save the day.
It was lots of help in 2020 when Covid was installed.
Hopefully it will save us when the next market crash comes.
Previous trade idea | 19-November-2022 | Tesla | Chart Spells Doom!
Sorry for the ranting.
I just want your opinion.
Open your heart.
Show me your soul.
Namaste.
Google | Looking For The Next TargetAlphabet Inc (Google) peaked in November 2021... With one last hurray in January 2022 that wicked higher.
The All Time High came in January this year but only by a wick as the weekly candle closed much lower.
We have a year long downtrend already.
Time does fly by when one is not paying attention.
We opened this chart out of curiosity.
Since the Nasdaq100 (NDX) index is set to crash, all these companies are likely to follow and the charts are matching this statement.
The good thing is that a bottom is getting closer and closer, maybe just another 6/7 months for these stocks but still too early for us to say.
The main support we are looking at is sitting at 72.38.
89.42 is the immediate support.
We see rejection after rejection each time Google closes above EMA10 and tries to move up.
No relief rally here, not even when the SPX and DJI had a relief for several months.
Will there be a relief now for Google?
Not likely, don't think so.
These stocks/companies have been growing for decades, the market moves in cycles.
We are bound to see additional bleeding before a return to sustained growth.
Around 68 is our mid-term target.
For the bottom... We will have another look at this chart in 3 months.
Namaste.