XAUUSD FAKE BULLSAs Gold started an impressive bearish era, losing more than 200 points against all odds, now seems like a good time for it to calm down ;
Gold going down, as well as VIX in some way, shows that the economy is getting better, Gold only rises when the world falls apart (war, inflation, pandemics).
So with such a great leader it seems obvious that now gold is to come back to normal levels, and should not rise again, at least not so sharp, but for how long ?
NASDAQ 100 CFD
BTC NEXT MOVEMissed a pretty good trade by not so much tonight, this is tough.
Not displayed here but we went with Fibonacci tools for this one, using different colours and methods.
This new HH today puts a big step towards the 100K rally, which will however not be completed right now but at least in 2025.
nas100 - 15 min ( Great Buy Scalping Opportunity )💎 Nas100
Time Frame : 15min Chart
------
🔻 Type :intraday - most important key level's
🚨Bullish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 21150 Area Done
———————————
☑️Great opportunity now
Please check the drawing carefully and all the reasons for entry and exit are shown in the analysis
If the analysis does not agree with you, please do not take it
This is a personal vision that reflects my practical way
good luck for everybody
And we strive to provide the best opportunities and develop your money
Please apply good capital management
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 12 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None, CPI on Wednesday
News - None
Directional bias - I stick with a BUY as I view the red candles on the bigger TF as a retracement rather than a change of market sentiment. I would need a bit more price action evidence to be convinced that we are in a bear market....up until then, I continue to look for buys in what I see as a bull market.
Morning analysis:
M TF - very bullish, candle is 11'000 pips strong at time of writing (Tuesday morning). Still 17 days to go until candle close but definitely indicative of strong bull sentiment overall
W TF - week candle has turned red (at time of writing on Tuesday morning), indicating that price is in an area where bears have stepped into play. Need to be careful and need good confirmation for entering a buy, as bears may still push for a further retracement. Time to whip out sell fibs on the smaller time frames and start analysing those too to understand if price is respecting these sell levels and sell TP points. This does not mean I waiver from my directional bias as a buy, but it helps me set buy TP's (possibly at strong sell fib levels) and understand bearish price action.
D TF - D TF shows price stalling at this zone. We have a doji candle from Friday and a red (colour change) candle from Monday. If bears do push for a lager TF retracement, then it can be expected that price will move down significantly, as the D and W 0.382 fib level is 3'800 pips down.
4H TF - price seems be to struggling to break the 0.50 sell fib level (4H candles are failing to close above this level at C, D, E and F on the chart). Long wick candles are forming with wicks sticking out the top, indicating that bulls are trying to push higher but bears are successfully pushing back down at the 0.50 SELL fib level and the 0.618 SELL fib level. Looking at the line chart, a head and shoulders pattern is forming, with a neckline slanted upwards (indicated in blue lines). If bears break this neckline downwards, the price could move down and test the 4H EMA. The blue vertical line represents the distance that price would most probably move down if the neckline is broken (price usually moves the same distance as the height of the market pattern). Buy fib in the morning was drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.
1H - Monday and Tuesday's pivot points are close to each other. This indicates that price is in a strong area of S&R. It remains to be seen if this zone will act as a support for a push up, or resistance for a push down.
As the morning progressed, a falling wedge started forming on the 1H TF, as marked by the torquoise lines.
Falling wedge pattern usually breaks upward, but can break in either direction.
Due to strong bearish presence, I decided to only enter if the 1H TF gave a signal. 1H TF is pretty strong on Nasdaq and I would manage my risk this way.
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Trend - a buy is in the same direction as the overall trend. I prefer trading with the trend as “the trend is your friend”.
2. S&R - price broke the pivot point + EMA with a good momentum candle.
3. Market pattern - a falling wedge pattern had formed which broke upwards. The temporary downtrend line (the top line of the falling wedge was broken) indicating that the temp downtrend was over.
4. Fib - price was respecting the 4H BUY 0.382 fib level (written in purple) and price finally broke the 0.50 SELL fib level
For me all of this was strong confirmation that buyers had stepped in and that price was ready to move up.
Mental SL placed below the lowest candle wick below the falling wedge, as indicated by the pink line.
Unfortunately for me, price moved straight back down and I closed in my stop loss area when candles started closing below my pink line.
Took a loss of 568 pips. Not too bad pip wise, but because I felt the confirmations were solid, I entered with a full position size.
After that I was out for the day, as I "felt" (intuition that comes with LOTS of screen time) Nas wasn't moving as it normally does.
What could I have done differently?
Some part of me puts this loss to variance i.e. sometimes price will do what it wants and move against you no matter how good confirmations were.
But another part of me recognises that the green candle I entered on (at the hand icon), closed at exactly the same price point as the green candle under B.
From B. you can see that price moved down significantly from this point. So I basically entered a buy at resistance. I should have waited for the next 5min or 15min candle close to be sure that the resistance would not push price back down again (which is exactly what happened).
I won't be trading CPI, I feel that in high impact news, I am not able to stack the odds in my favour.
So hope you did better than me, good luck with CPI and catch you tomorrow! :)
P.S. #NasdaqNerd - don't you think its so cool how price really did move down to the profit target (end of blue vertical line)! It happens so regularly that price respects market pattern profit targets so perfectly :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NAS100 Will Go Lower! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for NAS100.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 21,056.31.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 20,692.20 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Bearish drop off 161.8% Fibonacci extension?NAS100 has reacted off the resistance level at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 21,161.95
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 21,371.18
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 20,692.20
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Nasdaq Insights: 13-NOV-2024Good morning! Join me for today's Nasdaq market analysis. Share your charts, ask questions, and let's discuss trading strategies.
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NAS100 Market Update: Key Levels and ProjectionsThe Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) is continuing its bullish run but is approaching critical resistance areas where a correction may occur. Here's a quick overview of key levels:
Strong Sell Zone: 22,233 - 21,052
Expect potential pullback as the index nears this resistance. This zone is likely to trigger a price correction, offering short-term selling opportunities.
Strong Buy Zone: Below 18,297
This major support level offers a favorable buying opportunity if the market pulls back. Buyers are expected to step in aggressively here, supporting the next bullish move.
Current Price: 20,338.7
NAS100 is approaching resistance after breaking above 19,600 support. Continued upward momentum is likely, but a correction could follow once resistance is tested.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance: 22,233 - 21,052 (Strong Sell Zone), 20,800 - 20,600 (minor).
Support: 19,600 - 19,400, 18,800 - 18,600, 18,297 (Strong Buy Zone).
Outlook
A pullback is expected near 22,233, with support at 18,297 as a key level for the next bullish phase.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to boost this post if you agree with my analysis.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research before making any trading decisions.
NAS100 H1 | Bearish DropBased on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is currently at our sell entry at 21,133.31 an overlap resistance.
Our take profit will be at 20,886.22 which aligns with the 161.8% Fibo extension
The stop loss will be placed at 21,255.69, which is a swing-high resistance."
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Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 11 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None, today is Veterans Day, market may be slow
News - None
Directional bias - BUY. The strong upsurge in the stock markets are a clear indication that the markets view the US election results favourably. Bulls have stepped in with both volume and momentum.
Morning analysis:
M TF - very bullish, candle is 13'000 pips strong at time of writing. Still 18 days to go till candle close but definitely indicative of strong bull sentiment
W TF - Finally the W candle managed to close above the strong weekly resistance at 20'363.
D TF - Friday's candle closed as a doji candle, could be an indication that price is stalling and a bigger price retracement is in the works. D TF and W TF fib levels are aligned, this will make this fib levels very strong. Huge gap up of +- 600 pips noted.
As the morning progressed, the 4H fib moved and finally settles on swing low at A. and swing high at B.
Identified an area of interest / confluence (highlighted in green), where pivot point and 4H 0.618 fib are in the same zone
Price should at least bounce from here, enough for me to secure my position at entry.
As the morning progressed, price moved down rapidly to my interest zone. Once price reached this green highlighted area, I start to keep an eye on the 5min TF because this is an area of high probability of price movement and with Nasdaq being so volatile, this TF can give signals at these high interest zones.
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Trend - a buy is in the same direction as the overall trend. I prefer trading with the trend as “the trend is your friend”.
2. S&R - the daily pivot point represents an objective and strong support & resistance zone which Nasdaq often respects.
3. Market pattern - a DB formed on the 5min and broke the neckline up, indicating that buyers are over-powering the sellers at this zone
4. Fib - 4H 0.618 fib level was in this zone
Mental SL placed below the lowest candle close of the first bottom of the DB on the 5min TF (marked with think pink line).
Market moved up enough for me to secure my trade (I usually secure my trades once price is 250 pips or more from my entry).
But then unfortunately moved back down and took me out at entry!
Today represented a big retracement.
In my trading style I don’t like to trade against the overall trend (I don’t trade retracements), so I would never have taken a sell.
But hope you got the sell, you would have coined it today! ;)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 11th: BUY S&P500, NASDAQ, & DOW!This is the Weekly Forex Forecast for Nov 11th.
The Big 3 Indexes are strong, trading at ATHs. There is no reason to look for anything other than buys this week.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
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All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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NAS100 - WHEN DO WE EXPECT THE DOWN TRENDTeam, I was roughly measuring the trend last week for NAS.
But today, I have carefully measured the position where it would be an excellent short-area
I would consider shorting around 21255-21295, with a TIGHT stop loss at 21335
Target 1 at 21136-21115
Target 2 at 21005-20985
Target 3 at 20925-20905
PLEASE NOTE, take some partial at 1st target ranges and bring stop loss to BE for further Target.
Nasdaq Short: Weak Tech & Key Data AheadTaking advantage of the current bearish momentum in the Nasdaq with a daily short setup. Recent price action reveals a double-top pattern and a significant trendline break, suggesting potential downside. As we approach critical economic data releases, volatility is expected, which could fuel further bearish movement.
Technical Analysis
• Pattern: Double-top formation, a bearish reversal signal, confirmed with a break below the neckline.
• Trendline: The long-standing upward trend has been broken, validating the bearish scenario.
• Key Resistance: $20,200 area is acting as a strong resistance zone.
• Support Levels: Initial support around $18,800 with further downside potential if broken.
Fundamentals:
The short position on Nasdaq is driven by the weak tech performance, with giants like MSFT (-6.05%) and META (-4.09%) showing declines. Rising bond yields have intensified pressure on tech stocks, indicating potential shifts in investor sentiment. Additionally, tomorrow’s key data—Non-Farm Payrolls (forecast: 113K vs. prior 254K), Unemployment Rate (expected steady at 4.1%), and ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast: 47.6)—could further impact market outlook, with any surprises likely to influence Fed expectations and Nasdaq sentiment.
Risk Management
• Entry: Near current levels, aiming for downside momentum.
• Stop Loss: Above recent highs to protect against false breakouts.
• Target: Initial target at $18,800, with potential to extend if bearish momentum persists.
Risk Note: Given the volatility associated with these macroeconomic events, there is potential for increased fluctuations. Managing risk through stop-losses and close monitoring of data releases is essential.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
VIX GOING BACK UPAfter two false routes (the two white lines), we know for sure that VIX is to go up at some point to make up for the gap it made this week.
The only thing is we thought today's opening would be a higher gap compensating the precedent gap, but it kept getting lower and lower.
Now that we're approaching a low KL, there might be a new opportunity for a long entry, stay advised and always put a tight SL on this.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Friday 8 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Been quiet, dealing with a personal issue - but time to get back into trading.
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None today. Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps yesterday.
News - Trump won the US presidential election.
Directional bias - BUY. The strong upsurge in the stock markets are a clear indication that the markets view the US election results favourably. Bulls have stepped in with both volume and momentum.
Morning analysis:
M TF - Very bullish, current candle is 12'500 pips strong
W TF - Very bullish, fib levels moved up and now coincide with D fib levels = TF confluence and strong levels
D TF - Second day of highest D candle close. Bulls are dominating. Strong fib levels as coincide with W.
4H - Difficult to draw fib because price action just moved straight up, but used the line chart to give best estimate (fib drawn from swing low at A to swing high at B) and 4H 0.382 fib level lines up perfectly with pivot point. This is my interest area / area of confluence for today.
During the day:
Price formed a rising wedge on the 1H TF, marked with the blue lines.
Price broke the market pattern downwards and moved down past the market pattern profit target, marked by blue vertical line (i.e. price usually moves down the same distance as the height of the market pattern).
As price neared my area of interest, I noted a double bottom form on the 5min TF and entered.
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Trend - a buy is in the same direction as the overall trend - the trend is your friend
2. Fib - price made a DB above the 4H 0.382 fib level - 4H fib levels are strong levels.
3. Market pattern - DB formed on the 5min TF with neckline broken upwards. I used the 5min TF because price was right at my area of confluence (I don't use this TF if price is not in my area of interest)
4. Candlesticks - doji candle formed on the 15min TF, thereafter, neckline of DB was broken upwards on the 5min. This indicated that sellers were unable to push price down beyond this point and that buyers stepped in.
6. S&R - DB formed above the D pivot.
Mental stop placed below pivot point, at thick red line.
Price moved up and is now re-testing the neckline of the 4H DT. Seems that as of now, bears are giving bulls a hard time.
Once price moved up sufficiently, I secured at entry (moved SL to entry) and am now effectively trading risk free.
My intention is to hold my position in case bulls can re-test and break the 4H neckline upwards.
If I get taken out before that...then I would be ok with a zero profit day for my first day back.
Hope you coined it during this incredible bulls rally the past few days! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NASDSAQ INDEX (US100): Bullish Confirmation After Breakout
US100 Index updated the all-time high, violating a solid daily horizontal resistance.
After a breakout, the market retested the broken structure and started to consolidate
on an hourly time frame.
A violation of the upper boundary of the range is a strong intraday bullish continuation.
It indicates that with a high probability, the price will go up.
Next goal - 20920
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Nasdaq Outlook: 07-NOV-2024Good morning, traders! Welcome to today's Nasdaq market analysis. Compare my price action insights with your own charts and enhance your trading skills.
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