NAS100 Technical Analysis and Trade Idea US100 👉🔍 Looking at this NAS100 chart, we can clearly see that the price has broken a 4-hour downtrend. There is a noticeable break in market structure to the upside, followed by a significant rally with the US100. It has now reached a resistance level, and I'm anticipating a retracement back down into the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci levels, where I'll be looking for a NASDAQ potential buy opportunity if the price action described in the video unfolds.
It's important to note that these observations are speculative and not a definitive forecast. Confirming specific price movements is crucial before making any buying or selling decisions, as explained in the video. The video provides a comprehensive analysis of the current trend, market structure, and price dynamics. Remember, this educational content is designed to enhance understanding and does not guarantee outcomes. Trading inherently involves substantial risks, so employing robust risk management techniques is essential. 📈🔔
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NASDAQ Thoughts 02-AUG-2024Hello all, Kindly see my NASDAQ thoughts for today. These videos are aimed at making you compare charts with mine if you are a price acton trader and use my thoughts to improve your skill. They are not meant as signals even if they seem like they are. I want you to learn and be great
US500, NASDAQ at KEY level The price is currently at a key level, testing both support and the trendline.
1. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown):
- If the price breaks below the support level, it may indicate the beginning of an ABC correction in the Elliott Wave pattern.
- Action: Open a SHORT position with a smaller lot size.
- If the price then retests the broken support (now acting as resistance), you should open another SHORT position with a larger lot size.
- Target Levels: The price could initially drop to 5300 and potentially further to 4930.
2. Bullish Scenario (Support Holds):
- If the support holds and you observe bullish price action (e.g., long needles at the bottom of the candles), open a LONG position.
- Action: If the price forms a higher high and a higher low, or breaks above the resistance at 5560 and retests it, you can add to your LONG position.
Fundamental:
Recently, a technology crisis impacted Microsoft and several other companies' stocks. However, it appears that they have managed the situation effectively, suggesting a potential price increase. Despite this, the Volatility Index (VIX) keeps increasing, indicating persistent fear among investors. As a result, there is an equal 50/50 chance of prices moving either up or down.
NASDAQ SHORT 1500+ pips (UPDATE....FLOATING 700+ PIPS IN PROFIT)Good evening gents so today has been EXCELLENT. My previous analysis that was posted on JULY 29th has gone perfectly. During NEW YORK session today at 16:00pm (south African time), market gave us a beautiful drop out of our POI DAILY SIBI....We are now currently running 700+ pips in profit! If you were one of the viewers to see my previous post, give me a heads up if you got in on this trade. COMMENTS ON THIS POST IS MUCH APPRECIATED.
NASDAQ to find buyers at market?US100 - 24h expiry
Previous resistance level of 19262 broken.
Short term bias is mildly bullish.
A lower correction is expected.
We look to buy dips.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 19200 level.
We look to Buy at 19200 (stop at 18990)
Our profit targets will be 19550 and 19650
Resistance: 19895 / 20790 / 20965
Support: 18890 / 18440 / 17800
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NASDAQ Loong!This index has been forming a falling flag pattern for the past few days, which IMO is a strong indicator for a bullish momentum. As for now, it seems to retest the upper trendline of the channel.
I do anticipate that it might cover the gap it created at 19690. My entry position is at 19150, TP at 19690 and SL at 18900
Nasdaq Thoughts 01-Aug-2024Happy New Month Everyone! Please find my NASDAQ market analysis for today below. As a price action trader, I encourage you to compare my charts with yours and use my insights to enhance your skills. These videos are designed for educational purposes only, not as trading signals. My goal is to help you grow and become a proficient trader.
Nasdaq could test the broken neck line levelLast week, the Nasdaq broke below the neckline of a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern, which took over a month to form. The price quickly accelerated to the downside, dropping almost 800 points.
However, once the price approached the rising trend line of the channel (a channel that has kept the price elevated for the past nine months), buyers entered the market, and now the Nasdaq 100 is trading back above 19,000.
This recovery could continue in the coming days, and a test of the broken support level is likely.
Looking further ahead to the medium term, if the price reverses from that level and drops below 19,000 once more, a break below the support line of the channel becomes probable, potentially leading to a deep correction.
For now though, as long as 18,700 remains intact, the bulls hold the upper hand.
Nasdaq thoughts 30-JUL-2024Hello all, Kindly see my NASDAQ thoughts for today. These videos are aimed at making you compare charts with mine if you are a price acton trader and use my thoughts to improve your skill. They are not meant as signals even if they seem like they are. I want you to learn and be great
NQ Long (NDX, QQQ)NQ is showing the first signs of recovery from its recent decline. The overall decline and first day of recovery is structurally similar to the last pullback in April. Price has pushed through the bottom BB and is starting to bounce back inside. RSI has turned up on the daily after being pushed below the lower threshold which has only happened 3 times this year and price has bounced each time. Given that the latest PCE was on target, rate cuts appear to be within sight. For the period between now and when the first rate cut actually occurs, I think NQ will rally to the previously developing POC around 20,000.
The 20,000 level is also supported by a massive open interest for QQQ 496 calls (image linked below) which roughly works out to the 20k NQ level. The call wall should act as a progressively stronger magnet since MMs will buy the underlying to hedge their exposure. It will also act as a major resistance which is why my final scale out is a range to be adjusted as the trade progresses.
Risks
There is a lot of uncertainty at the moment, so these assumptions are based on macro data meeting forecasts and the remaining MAG7 earnings being neutral to favorable. If the remaining MAGs miss on earnings, then I expect a drop to around 18,500.
QQQ Open Interest
drive.google.com
NAS 100 D TFGood morning, everyone.
Using a combination of the Elliott Wave Principle and the RSI from the Day TF, I believe the price will reverse to the following areas identified on the workspace:
- 1st TP: 19,762
- 2nd TP: 19,526
Typically, when the price reverses or has reversed 3-5 times from the same support or resistance area, it indicates a strong zone. The price has previously reversed at least four times from both the oversold and overbought areas on the RSI.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) Breakdown:
- The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements.
- It ranges from 0 to 100.
- Traditionally, an RSI above 70 is considered overbought, and an RSI below 30 is considered oversold.
- These levels can indicate potential reversal points in the market.
Elliott Wave Theory Breakdown:
- Elliott Wave Theory suggests that market prices move in predictable patterns called waves.
- There are two types of waves: motive waves and corrective waves.
Motive Waves (Waves 1 through 5):
1. Wave 1: This is the initial move in the direction of the main trend. Often, this wave is not very strong and may go unnoticed as the new trend is just beginning.
2. Wave 2: This wave is a corrective wave and moves against the direction of wave 1. It usually retraces a portion of wave 1, often between 38.2% and 61.8% of the first wave's move.
3. Wave 3: This is typically the strongest and longest wave in the five-wave sequence. It moves powerfully in the direction of the main trend and often exceeds the end of wave 1. Wave 3 usually captures the attention of traders and is characterized by increased volume and momentum.
4. Wave 4: This is another corrective wave that moves against the direction of wave 3. It usually retraces a portion of wave 3, often between 38.2% and 50%. Wave 4 is typically less intense than wave 2.
5. Wave 5: This is the final motive wave in the sequence. It moves in the direction of the main trend and often equals the length of wave 1. Wave 5 is usually characterized by lower momentum and may create a divergence between price and technical indicators.
After the completion of waves 1 through 5, the market typically undergoes a three-wave corrective phase labeled A, B, and C, which moves against the overall trend established by waves 1 through 5.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels and Corrective Waves:
- Fibonacci retracement drawn from waves 4 to 5 suggests that corrective wave (a) may fall between the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels.
- When drawn from wave 5 to wave (a), corrective wave (b) may fall between the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels.
- When drawn from wave (a) to wave (b), corrective wave (c) may fall between the 138.2% and 161.8% retracement levels.
However, keep in mind that the price can be unpredictable, so always trade with caution. This is not trading advice; always use your own analysis. Please feel free to comment, provide corrections, advice, or any positive input.
Thank you, and have a great day.
Heading into 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?NAS100 is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 19,518.04
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 19,846.61
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 18,728.93
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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NAS100 H4 Bearish reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 19,513.26, which is a pullback resistance and a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit will be at 18,961.49, an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be at 20,054.61, a pullback resistance level close to 61.8% Fibo retracement
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A Traders’ Weekly Playbook – A week that has it allIt’s a huge week ahead by way of event risk for traders to navigate positions over – traders, therefore, need to be aware of key timings and consider the possibility for volatility and if there is a skew in the directional risk when the market learns of the outcome. That is typically a function of reviewing expectations and the outcome relative to what is ‘priced in’, market positioning and liquidity.
US earnings the marquee risk this week
I would argue that for single stock and equity index traders US earnings will likely prove to be the most influential factor, with 40% of the S&P500 market cap due to report this week, with 4 of the 6 biggest market cap names in the NAS100 reporting.
With some sizeable moves implied by the options market for the individual names on the day of reporting, movement at a stock level could resonate across other plays within their sector and potentially promote wide-index volatility. Nvidia and Apple aside, company earnings don’t come much bigger than Microsoft, where the options market implies a move (higher or lower) of 4.7% - the after-market session on Tuesday (when MSFT report) could get lively, so make sure you’ve got our US 24hr equity offering on your platform to assess (and even trade) the ensuing move.
US nonfarm payrolls will offer meaningful insights for macro heads
US nonfarm payrolls are the next most meaningful event risk for me. From a playbook/risk perspective, if the payrolls print comes out around 200k, with an unchanged unemployment rate then making a call on the USD, NAS100 and gold is a tough exercise as the macro argument doesn’t really evolve.
It is easier clearly to consider the path of the USD if we see a payrolls print below 170k, concurrently with a higher unemployment (U/E) rate, and a further moderation in average earnings. In fact, if we see a U/E rate above 4.1% then one could argue the US swaps pricing may even price a small probability of a 50bp cut in the September FOMC meeting – a factor which should suggest buying USDs because there is little chance that will play out.
A lower U/E rate, and above 200k payrolls would make the macro somewhat messy as it challenges the strong consensus position for a cut in September.
The FOMC meeting to open the door to cuts
The Fed meeting statement and Powell’s presser is really an exercise in assessing what’s priced into the US swaps/rates curve and whether the tone sufficiently meets these expectations for easing. The door needs to be opened for a cut or US 2yr Treasury yield will spike higher, and the USD will rally hard, taking US equity lower. The options market implies a -/+1% move in the S&P500 on FOMC day, which is above the typical -/+0.8% move we’ve seen in recent meetings - so the market is priced for increased movement, and that needs to be accounted for in our risk and position sizing.
The BoJ meeting will get good airtime, and while the JPY has undergone a huge rally of late, let’s not forget that the BoJ also have a strong history of disappointing those calling for hawkish policy action. I am somewhat sceptical that BoJ action will have much of an effect on the JPY anyhow, as the move we’ve seen has been more about a position unwind, with JPY-funded carry positions unwound, with cross-asset volatility and expected Fed policy changes the greater driver. Still, it’s a risk that could promote vol and needs to be considered.
Aus Q2 CPI to make or break an August RBA rate hike
The Aus CPI print will be closely watched by AUD and ASX200 traders, as it could put the 6 August RBA meeting as a truly ‘live’ event, while a weaker-than-expected outcome could take any chance of a rate hike off the table – much to the relief of the local equity market.
We also see increased two-way risks to the GBP with the BoE meeting a lineball call as to whether the BoE cut bank rate. While the EU and Swiss CPI reports could also move the dial on the EUR and CHF.
Elsewhere, I will be watching crude oil and gold in the wake of rising geopolitical news flow between Israel and Hezbollah. While Trump’s weekend speech at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville has cemented Bitcoin (and the miners) as a key election trade.
US Earnings this week – It’s a busy week on the US corporate reporting calendar. 40% of the S&P500 market cap report numbers, but the names that should get the greatest attention from clients include:
AMD (the options market implies a -/+7.7% move on the day of reporting), Boeing (-/+4.2%), Microsoft (-/+4.7%), Meta (-/+8.7%), (QCOM -/+7.6%), Coinbase (-/+9.8%), Apple (-/+3.8%), Amazon (-/+7.2%) and Intel (-/+7.4%).
The ASX200 full-year earnings season commences with Rio Tinto starting proceedings on Wednesday.
Central bank meetings due this week:
BoJ Meeting (Wednesday – no set time) – The majority of economists see the BoJ keeping rates unchanged at 0.1%, although the distribution of these estimates range includes a 10bp, 15bp and even 25bp hike. Japan Swaps market price a 10bp hike at a 50% probability. There will also be a focus on any changes to the monthly pace of BoJ bond buying, where the central view is we see the monthly pace taken from Y6t p/m to Y4.5t. With the trade-weighted JPY rallying 2.6% last week, a number of traders have covered JPY shorts into the meeting, and positioning is far less extreme.
Fed Reserve meeting and Chair Powell Press conference (Thursday 04:00 AEST) – the Fed will leave rates on hold, but the tone of the FOMC statement should evolve to show the Fed has greater confidence in the inflation outlook and to lay the groundwork for a cut in the September FOMC meeting. With a 25bp cut in September now fully priced, and 67bp (or 2.7 25bp cuts) priced by December, the move in the USD, gold and US equity will come in the tone of the FOMC statement and chair Powell’s press conference relative to this pricing. Will the statement meet these expectations sufficiently?
BoE Meeting (Thursday 21:00 AEST / 12:00 UK) – Eyeing UK swaps pricing, a 25bp cut is priced at a 50% probability, so market participants see a cut as finely balanced. Economists, however, see a greater probability of easing, with 24 of 32 polled by Bloomberg calling for a 25bp cut to pull bank rate to 5%. The split in the MPC votes for a hold/cut may also be closely followed.
Marquee economic data & consensus expectations:
US nonfarm payrolls (Friday 22:30 AEST) – the consensus is for payrolls to come in at 178k (economists’ estimates range from 225k to 70k), with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings at 3.7% (from 3.9%). There may be disruptions that impact the nonfarm payrolls print, notably from Hurricane Beryl, so forecasting the jobs report is typically a huge challenge.
An unemployment print that ticks up to 4.2%, with an NFP print below 170k would be a surprise, but it could feasibly bring a 50bp cut onto the table in September, at least in swaps/rates pricing.
Other notable US economic data points this week that could move markets include Consumer confidence (Wed) and ISM Manufacturing (Thursday).
Australia Q2 CPI (Wed 11:30 AEST) – Headline CPI is expected at 1% Q/Q / 3.8% y/y, with trimmed-mean CPI at 1% q/q / 4% y/y (the economist estimates range from 4.1% to 3.8%). For a more detailed preview on Aus CPI, see my preview
EU CPI (Wed 19:00 AEST) – Headline CPI is eyed at 2.5% y/y (unchanged), with core CPI at 2.8% y/y (from 2.9%). The market already sees a cut from the ECB in the September meeting, but
China manufacturing & services PMIs (Wed 11:30 AEST) – Manufacturing PMI is expected to come in a little worse than the prior month at 49.4 (from 49.5), with services PMI expected at 50.2 (50.5).
Switzerland CPI (Friday 16:30 AEST) – Headline CPI expected at 1.3% y/y (unchanged) with core CPI also unchanged at 1.1% y/y.
Good luck to all.
NAS100 US100 NASDAQ - LONGHi guys!
After the crazy political events (Biden resignation, Trump win odds around 60% - Kamala 30-35%) - The NASDAQ has reached my levels of interest for LONGS.
Area I marked on the chart is the first point I started building the long position .
I want a nice swing position for a 2% move up minimum (50% FVG) with a chance to reach All time highs supply area possibly .
Please note:
- Alphabet (GOOGLE) and Tesla (TSLA) earnings report on Tuesday after session,
- Observe the political stage and the odds.
NAS100USD ( INSIDE DEMAND ZONE ) (4H)NAS100USD
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , the price inside demand zone it is a sensitive area between 19,116 & 18,776 .
TURNING LEVEL (1) : the price of this level at 19,116 , so if the price breaking this level reach a resistance level (1) .
TURNING LEVEL (2) : the price of this level at 18,776 , so if the price breaking this level reach a support level (1) .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : this level around 19,526, for reach this resistance level the price need breaking a turning level (1) .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : around 20,112 , for reach this level it will be breaking by open 4h or 1h candle above resistance level (1)
SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : this level around 18,236 , for reach this support level the price need breaking a turning level (2) .
SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : support level at 17,811 , for reach this level will be breaking by open 4h candle below support level (1) .
CORRECTIVE LEVEL : currently price 19,060 , have two scenario , first corrective turning level (1), before dropping to touch a turning level (2) , then breaking this level reach a support level (1), second corrective turning level (2) , to reach a turning level (1) , then breaking this level reach a resistance level (1).
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 19,526 , 20,112 .
SUPPORT LEVEL :18,236 , 17,811 .
US100 Outlook ICT ConceptsUS 100 Analysis
💰 Welcome to Your Channel!
Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US100, dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains.
💡Previous Analysis Review:
In the previous analysis, we anticipated a sell-off from the all-time high (ATH). The price movement extended much lower than expected, surpassing various key levels.
📍Current Market Overview:
Currently, the price is around 19,044.3. The price has swept several key levels, including the previous week low, equal lows, and sell-side liquidity (SSL). There is now a noticeable reaction to the daily fair value gap (FVG).
🔍 Identifying Key Levels:
The chart highlights several significant levels and zones influencing the current market behavior:
• ATH: All-Time High
• PWH: Previous Week High
• PWL: Previous Week Low
• BSL: Buy-Side Liquidity
• SSL: Sell-Side Liquidity
• EQL: Equal Lows
• Daily FVG: Daily Fair Value Gap, highlighting areas of imbalance on the daily timeframe
📊 Key Considerations:
• Current Price Position: The price is trading around 19,044.3, reacting to the daily FVG.
• Key Levels Swept: The price has swept the previous week low, equal lows, and SSL, indicating potential for a bullish reversal.
• Daily FVG Reaction: The price is reacting to the daily FVG, often acting as a support zone.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
Given the current price action and key considerations, a bullish scenario is possible if the following conditions are met:
• Retracement to Premium Level: We can expect a retracement back up into a premium level (above 50%) after sweeping key levels.
• Continuation of Reaction to Daily FVG: The reaction to the daily FVG suggests potential for a move higher.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
A bearish scenario should be considered if the following conditions are met:
• Failure to Hold Above Daily FVG: If the price fails to hold above the daily FVG and starts to decline, further bearish movement is likely.
• Break Below Recent Lows: If the price breaks below the recent lows, it could signal a continuation of the downtrend.
📊 Chart Analysis Summary:
Bullish Expectation: The expectation is for the price to potentially retrace back up into a premium level (above 50%) after sweeping key levels and reacting to the daily FVG.
Bearish Expectation: If the price fails to hold above the daily FVG and breaks below the recent lows, further bearish movement is anticipated.
🙏 Thank you for joining us!
Exploring US100 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning!
⚠️ Disclaimer
The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ THOUGHTS 25-07-2024Please find my NASDAQ market analysis for today below. As a price action trader, I encourage you to compare my charts with yours and use my insights to enhance your skills. These videos are designed for educational purposes only, not as trading signals. My goal is to help you grow and become a proficient trader.