AI Bubble grows above resistance for QQQThe gap up and follow through today shows a clear break above the 2010 trading channel that has provide resistance so far. I see a pattern very close to that of July 6, 2020. The is not confirmation yet that price is out of the channel and that resistance has become support, but for the bulls this is a very good start. I would expect the bulls to try and run with it now that price is above the channel. I will also be watching for a pullback to test for support in the near future. If that can hold, the AI bubble may get really pumped. We can never know what will spook the market, but right now it feels like the sky is the limit.
Today
July 6, 2020
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NAS100 NASDAQ Technical Analysis and Trade Idea US100👉🔍 In this video, we analyze the NAS100 index. It's evident that the NASDAQ has been showing strong upward momentum in a bullish trend. However, considering today is Friday, I anticipate a potentially sharp retracement with the US100. My strategy involves monitoring the 15-minute chart for signs of sideways movement and a potential reversal, which could present a selling opportunity targeting the previous swing low.
It's important to note that these observations are speculative and not a definitive forecast. Confirming specific price movements is crucial before considering any buying or selling decisions, as elaborated in the video. The video provides a comprehensive analysis of the current trend, market structure, and price dynamics. Remember, this educational content is designed to enhance understanding and does not guarantee outcomes. Trading inherently involves substantial risks, so employing robust risk management techniques is essential. 📈🔔
NAS100 Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for NAS100.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 20,164.1.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 19,774.4 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Nasdaq Reaches New All-Time High with Potential Retest in SightTechnical Analysis: Price Reaches New All-Time High
Today's Outlook:
The price has breached previous high levels and is trending towards a new all-time high of around 20410. A retest of this level might occur, potentially pushing the price towards 2100.
Bearish Scenario:
For a bearish trend to be confirmed, the price must break below 20100 and stabilize with a 4-hour candle close beneath this level. This could lead to a decline towards 19845 and potentially 19625.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as the price remains above 20100, the bullish trend is likely to continue, targeting 20410. There is also a possibility of a retest down to 20100 before resuming the upward movement.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 20250
- Resistance Levels: 20400, 20530, 20650
- Support Levels: 20100, 19960, 19845
Today's Expected Range:
The price is expected to fluctuate between the support at 19845 and the resistance at 20410, with an overall downward trend anticipated for today.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Wednesday 3 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - ADP Non-farm Employment Change + initial jobless claims
Early market close today - volume & volatility may be light today
Directional bias - BUY
During early morning analysis noted the following:
Yesterday the bulls pushed higher, breaking out from the 4H consolidation triangle that had formed. Bulls managed to close the D candle higher than the previous highest D close.
Bulls were flexing muscles yesterday.
Usually the profit target on a break out of a consolidation triangle is the same height as the height of the triangle itself (marked in orange lines). This means that theoretically we can expect a significant move up.
I suspect that price may retrace today - possibly a shallow retracement before moving up because bulls will be pushing for the orange profit target.
Identified two areas of interest (as at 6am GMT) highlighted in green. If price comes to these areas, I will enter a buy at my full position size;
Area 1:
Pivot point + 4H 0.382 fib level (drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.) + 1H 0.618 fib level (drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D)
Area 2:
Top of the consolidation triangle (i.e. assuming market would want to re-test this market pattern) + 4H 0.50 fib level + 4H EMA (EMA was at this area in the morning)
But I think it is unlikely that price will come down this far because the retest of the consolidation triangle already happened on the 1H TF i.e. the red candle close to C. (quite a high time frame thus representing a strong re-test)
Noted another consolidation triangle formed on the 1H TF (as marked by the dark pink lines) during the morning hours.
Entered a buy as price started breaking upwards from the market pattern (indicated by the hand).
I generally don't like to enter on these early morning market patterns because I've seen they are often prone to fake-outs on Nas100.
But I was watching price action carefully on the 5min, 15min and 30min TF's and bulls seemed to hold breakout strong. I entered gradually as my confidence rose that this is not a fake out.
Mental stop was placed below the consolidation triangle (marked with the thick pink line).
Market moved up by more than 250 pips and I secured my trades at entry.
Bears stepped in forcing a retracement and I was out at entry.
Price touched the 1H EMA and this was enough dynamic support to invite bulls back into play.
At this moment I was very distracted with work deadlines an unable to pay the close attention to my charts as I usually do. So I did not re-enter.
But looking back at the candles now, the buy entry at E. was not an easy one. Nas did not give clear confirmation. The bulls momentum candle was right as the US session opened at 14h30.
There was no nice DB on the 5min nor the 15min TF (which are the TF's I use for precision entries).
The bullish momentum candle came up so high that it just didn't feel right (to me).
Perhaps the correct entry would have been at F. which was the re-test of the uptrend pink line and also the 0.618 fib level on the 1H TF (fib drawn from swing low E. at to swing high at G.) But this entry style is not my entry style.
Usually what I do to combat these kinds of situations is to leave a small runner open. So for example if I had a successful trade open yesterday and market moved up +- 2'000 pips let's say...then I would leave a small runner open.
For me, it removes the FOMO I feel when Nas just turns around without much confirmation, because then I still feel like I am "part of" the big move up and dont feel like I am missing out.
Then my runners take advantage of days like today and I re-enter my bigger positions into the uptrend on strong retracement interest areas.
I recently closed all my runner's on the 3 bear day candle closes.
Hope you caught this nice buy!
If you did...tell me how you got in!?
Not trading tomorrow....see ya Friday!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 2 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Directional bias - BUY because for me there has not been a reversal market pattern on a high TF (at least the D TF).
During analysis noted the following:
M - June M candle closed with a massive bullish candle which was 16'886 pips in size. May M candle was 16'453 pips in size - so there is no slow down in bullish momentum on this high TF.
W - Last W candle close also could not break the resistance at 19'740 and closed in a doji candle. So now we have a shooting star candle + a doji candle + a colour change candle on the W TF. So this could indicate that bulls are losing momentum at this point. Price could either be stalling at this point and then push further up or price could be stalling with bears stepping in. So further confirmation is needed.
D - Potential DT forming with the neckline right at the resistance level that can't be broken on the W TF.
4H - Massive consolidation triangle forming (you could see it clearly this morning on the 4H TF if you change chart type to line chart, marked in orange lines ((although now broken upwards at time of writing)) Also a large DB formed with neckline broken up and price retesting neckline.
Entered a buy at 19'755 (as indicated by the hand) - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - DB formed on 30min TF (marked in turquoise lines) with neckline broken upwards. Entered at break of the neckline. This DB formed right at the area of weekly resistance and above the pivot point, indicating that market is rejecting this area and bulls are stepping in to possibly break this zone. Also on the 15 min TF, there is a DB right at the pivot point , with nice long wick candles sticking out below the pivot point, indicating that bears pushed hard to break this support zone down but bulls fought back and held the zone strong (candlestick confirmation). Timeframe confluence also exists because we have a DB formed and completed on 15min TF + DB formed and completed on 30min TF and DB in progress on 1H TF + this zone represents the re-test of the neckline of the 4H DB so clearly price is rejecting this 4H neckline and ready to move up.
2. S&R - market clearly rejecting the daily pivot point
3. Fib - 4H 0.382 is in the same zone as the pivot point
4. Trend - overall Nasdaq is bullish and trade is in the same direction as overall trend - "the trend is your friend". Plus current temporary uptrend line (bottom of consolidation triangle on the 4H TF)
5. Break & re-test - 4H DB break of the neckline and re-test
SL was a mental stop placed at the thick pink line (i.e. half the height of the DB market pattern)
Market moved up the full profit target of the market pattern (i.e. the same distance up as the height of the market pattern)
Then price came back down to re-test the neckline, but bulls couldn't hold strong and price pushed down further.
Usually I would secure my trades at entry after price moves 250 pips from entry. Unfortunately, price only moved up 240 pips and then moved down.
So took a loss of about 300 pips when my SL hit.
Not sad about this entry - it was based on good confirmations on high timeframes.
Then I missed a great entry due to a mistake I made during my morning analysis.
For the D TF, I drew my Day fib from swing low at A to swing high at B.
I should have drawn my Day fib from swing low at C to swing high at D - reason being because market had already retraced at C. so this should have been my most recent swing low.
Such a rookie error! Can't actually believe I made this mistake.
But had I drawn my fib correctly, I would have identified a really strong area of interest (marked in the green highlight on the 30min TF).
This was an area of confluence because it was the intersection between the orange uptrend line, the 4H and the D 0.618 fib.
Under usual circumstances I would have entered at such a strong zone because price would for sure bounce from this zone. Probably bounce enough for me to secure my trade and then if bears persist, market would take me out at entry.
So I missed this trade and market moved up 3'000 pips - OUCH!
But I live to trade another day!
Hope you caught this great buy and made nice profit!! :)
What could I have done differently / better?
My real issue here was that I was using my old charts from last week. Usually I would use fresh charts each week. Essentially being lazy and not creating a new set of charts for this weeks trading, caused me to rely on old fibs.
Laziness will always bite you in the behind!
NAS100 H4 | Falling to pullback supportNAS100 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 19,521.53 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 19,333.00 which is a level that lies underneath the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 19,900.09 which is a pullback resistance level.
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NAS100 Will Fall! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for NAS100.
Time Frame: 7h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 19,717.14.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 19,399.12 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
NAS100: First red dayHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range ✅ day 2 cycle
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day ✅
First Green Day
3 Days Long Breakout
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump ✅
Dump&Pump
Frontside
Backside ✅
4. THESIS:
Long: secondary, not my main setup, however I could scalp long if after 10am, the market will consolidate at the current level (Friday LOD) for at least 30/45 minutes for a reversal trade back to the current HOD
Short: primary, possibility to see down continuation, going to completed during the upcoming days the weekly pump and dump scenario. I will be looking for a pump and dump in my session (NY) after all the news will be release.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
USNAS100 / Price Reversal in FocusTechnical Analysis: Price Reversal in Focus
Today's Outlook:
The price will try to touch 19625 and 19525 from the resistance line which is 19835
there is a sensitive point, stability above 19960 means will touch 20100
Bearish Scenario:
As long as the price trades below 19835, the bearish trend is likely to persist, with targets at 19625 and under that will be 19525, supported by strong bearish volume.
Bullish Scenario:
Reversing to stabilize above 19960 means will push up to get 20100 and closing 4h candle above 20095 means will start a new bullish trend
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 19835
- Resistance Levels: 19960, 20090, 20150
- Support Levels: 19630, 19525, 19230
Today's Expected Range:
The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the support at 19520 and the resistance at 19960, with a downward trend expected for today.
NAS100 Weekly Analysis/Navigating Key Pivot and Resistance LevelTechnical Weekly Analysis: US NASDAQ 100 (NAS100)
A Short Outlook on the Previous Movement:
The US NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) has been trading within a primary ascending channel since the significant drop during the COVID-19 period. The index experienced a strong bullish trend, reaching new highs before facing periodic pullbacks. These pullbacks have been opportunities for the price to gather momentum for further upward movement.
Current Outlook:
The current price of NAS100 is around 19,754.9, positioned near the pivot line at 19,103.5. The index is testing a resistance line near 20,537.0, and the market is awaiting a decisive move. The recent movement suggests potential consolidation before a breakout.
Bullish Scenario:
Key Trigger: Daily closing above 19,525.0 and sustained move above the resistance line at 20,537.0.
Targets: The immediate target would be 20,537.0, with potential further movement towards 21,000.0.
Confirmation: A break above 20,537.0, supported by strong buying volume, would confirm the bullish continuation towards 21,000.0.
Bearish Scenario:
Key Trigger: Daily closing under 19,525.0 and sustained move below 19,103.5.
Targets: If bearish momentum continues, the price could drop towards the support line at 17,898.9, further down to 16,548.0.
Confirmation: A decline below 19,103.5 and 19,525.0, along with increased selling pressure, would confirm the bearish outlook.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 19,103.5
Resistance Levels: 20,537.0, 21,000.0
Support Levels: 19,103.5 (Pivot Line), 17,898.9, 16,548.0, 15,766.2
Expecting Weekly Range Movement:
- The anticipated weekly range is between the support at 17,898.9 and the resistance at 20,537.0. A breakout in either direction would define the next significant move.
Preferred Direction:
- Given the strong historical bullish trend and the current positioning near the resistance line, the preferred direction leans towards bullish if the price can break and sustain above 20,537.0. However, caution is advised as the market could still face significant resistance and potential pullbacks.
Summary:
The NAS100 is currently at a critical juncture. A breakout above 20,537.0 would confirm a bullish continuation towards 21,000.0, while a failure to break this level and a decline below 19,103.5 would signal a bearish move towards 17,898.9 and potentially 16,548.0. Traders should closely monitor the price action around these key levels to determine the next major trend.
PREVIOUS WEEKLY IDEA:
NASDAQ - What do I expect?Hey Guys,
the Quarterly and Yearly Chart are Bullish. The Monthly is showing 5 waves - could mean that some traders are willing to take some profits because they expect an ABC - Wave Correction from here.
However, a Fifth Wave extension is not that unlikely because the third has not been extended.
in simple words: We might see a bit of a correction - or we will see a straight continuation -break above and retest the Highs - but I guess many will be happy taking a bit of profit here, thinking about the upcoming election in the USA - a bit of Consolidation would be expected at least thats what I am thinking…
Either Way - I will be cautious during the next week as it might indicate what Q3 will look like.
Thank you for reading…
NASDAQ based on past data This is the past data of NASDAQ and would like to see how the everything code plays out based on Raoul Paul's idea that everything is correlating to the debt refinancing by the fed.
remember rates will be cut soon and based on past data September gets the end of the stick so lets see how they cut rates and how the market will behave due to that
#fed #nas100 #QQQ
NAS100: First red day, on the backside
Hi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2 ✅ day 2 cycle
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day ✅
First Green Day
3 Days Long Breakout
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump ✅
Dump&Pump
Frontside
Backside ✅
4. THESIS:
Long: secondary, not really interested in it, unless a 3 sessions setup dump and pump is identified after 10am, not really into it today.
Short: primary, potential weekly pump and dump, currently the price placed a lower low into the LOD and started pumping up. If the price will lock the high for a reversal short trade after 10am , I will be willing to take it.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
Plan Your Trade - 6-27-24 : SPY & QQQ ExpectationsThis continuation of my Plan Your Trade video series highlights the potential price rotation we'll see over the next two days, leading to what I believe will be a substantial rally phase throughout the week of July 4th.
The next two days will likely represent some huge price swings - first upward, then downward on Friday.
These types of price swings are fantastic for day traders and intraday swing trading.
Learn how my SPY Cycle Patterns can help you plan and prepare for market direction and trends.
Do you know anyone who can accurately predict price setups/trends 2 to 4 weeks into the future? Well, you are watching me do it right now.
Let me know what you think in the comments.
Go make some money today.
Nasdaq Slapped- Like u saw yesterday, BTC dipped but the main reason for now is just the global economy being worst.
- Nasdaq Companies made big % lost yesterday - here the main list - www.cnbc.com
- The Covid19 caused a fast dip followed by a mega pump based on stimulus (brrrrr), now the real dip is ongoing.
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Trading Part ( Long Term )
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- Buy 1 : 12,000$
- Rebuy : 10,500$ - 11,000$
TP : before 20,000$
----------------------------------
- This Analyze of course can be faked by a strong money printing (Brrrrrrrrrrrr)
Happy Tr4Ding and St4y Safe !
USNAS100 Analysis and Nasdaq's AI Surge Amid Fed UncertaintyUSNAS100 Technical Analysis: Focus on Price Reversal
Today's Outlook:
The price has reversed and stabilized in the bullish zone after surpassing the resistance level at 19800, suggesting a continued upward trajectory towards 19960 and potentially breaching the all-time high.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as the price remains above 19800, the bullish trend is expected to continue, with targets set at 19960 and 20100.
Bearish Scenario:
To trigger a bearish trend, the price needs to close at least a 4-hour candle below 19795, potentially leading to a decline towards 19625. A sustained drop below 19525 would activate a bearish zone, with further downside targets at 19100.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 19800
- Resistance Levels: 19960, 20100, 20250
- Support Levels: 19625, 19525, 19250
Today's Expected Range:
The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the support at 19625 and the resistance at 20100, with a prevailing expectation of a downward trend for today.
In summary, the outlook remains bullish above the pivot line, with potential targets at 19960 and 20100. However, a close below 19795 could signal a shift towards a bearish trend, targeting 19625 and lower levels.
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Nasdaq Surges on AI Stock Rally; Dow Dips Ahead of Key Inflation Data
The Nasdaq surged on Tuesday as Nvidia and other AI-linked stocks rebounded following recent selloffs. Meanwhile, the Dow slipped from its one-month high as investors awaited key inflation data later this week to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory.
"If the economic data continues to weaken, equities might have to take a breather unless and until a September rate cut becomes more likely," said John Velis, Americas macro strategist at BNY Mellon.
Market participants currently see a 61% chance of a 25-basis point interest rate cut in September and are anticipating approximately two cuts by the end of the year, according to LSEG's FedWatch data.
The most anticipated event of the week is the release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
However, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman indicated that she does not foresee any reduction in the U.S. benchmark interest rate this year.