USNAS100 / New All-Time Highs and NFP Implications Technical Analysis: New All-Time Highs and NFP Implications
Today's Outlook:
The price has recently surged past previous high levels, trending towards a new all-time high around 20410. A retest of this level might occur, potentially driving the price down to 20100. However, today's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) announcement is expected to significantly impact market movements.
Bearish Scenario:
For a bearish trend to be confirmed, the price must break below 20100 and stabilize with a 4-hour candle close beneath this level. This could lead to further declines towards 19845 and potentially 19625.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as the price remains above 20100, the bullish trend is likely to continue, targeting 20410 and 20540. There is also a possibility of a retest down to 20100 before resuming the upward movement.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 20220
Resistance Levels: 20400, 20540, 20750
Support Levels: 20100, 19960, 19625
Today's Expected Range:
The price is expected to fluctuate between the support at 19625 and the resistance at 20540.
NFP Scenarios:
- Previous Result: 272K
- Expectation: 191K
If the NFP release is less than 191K, the indices are likely to follow a bullish scenario. Conversely, a result exceeding 191K, particularly around 250K, would likely lead to a bearish scenario.
In summary, today's market direction will be heavily influenced by the NFP results and the key price levels outlined. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for navigating the day's trading volatility.
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NAS100 US100 Trade Idea NASDAQConsidering the NAS100 is currently exhibiting a strong bullish trend, there may be a potential buying opportunity if it retraces into a discount zone near the 61.8% Fibonacci level. US100 NASDAQ
Trading involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct thorough analysis and consider risk management strategies before making any trading decisions.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 9 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
During analysis noted the following:
M TF - current month's candle is 9'300 pips strong, indicative of strong bullish momentum
D TF - is bullish with yesterday's candle closing with a very small upper wick
4H TF - price has moved further than orange profit target, but I suspect that bears might start putting pressure on price.
1H TF - formation of a rising wedge market pattern, marked with dark blue lines. These usually break downwards, but can break in either direction. If the rising wedge does break downwards, the subsequent move down will be significant because the wedge pattern itself is large. Profit target is always the same height as the market pattern.
Noted 2 x areas of interest (areas of interest changed throughout the day because fib levels changed as market kept rising + EMA's moving - but ultimately these were my areas of interest for the day):
Area 1:
Pivot Point + 4H 0.618 fib level
Area 2:
Assuming that wedge market pattern has broken downwards and this area is the wedge profit target + 4H EMA + D 0.50 fib level(ish)
In the morning hours, entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
Market pattern - DB formed on the 15min TF, with a break of the neckline upwards. Entered on the break of the neckline
Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall bullish trend + temporary uptrend formed marked by the bottom pink line of the triangle
Candlesticks - the 1H candle close before this 15min DB entry was a doji candle, indicating that sellers may be losing momentum.
S&R - when the market is very bullish then price will respect the 30min EMA. There was a long wick candle down to the 30min EMA indicating that price was reacting to this dynamic support.
Fib - none
Set a mental SL at half the height of the market pattern as indicated by the think pink line.
Entered only half a position because it seemed unlikely that price would really move up from here with out first retracing.
Price moved up and then back down and price action broke my SL area and I closed at 100 pip loss (losing 100 pips is not a big deal in my books)
So waited patiently for my next set up, but was pretty confident in my Area 2, so set a buy limit for this zone for my full position size.
The area at the mushroom is pretty strong area because it is a strong S&R zone on the 4H TF and the D 0.382 fib level.
Price wicked down to this level and then seemed to reverse.
Watching price action carefully, I entered buys when a DB formed on the 5min TF with a break of the neckline upwards - this DB formed right on the 4H 0.618 fib level and the D pivot point.
I entered further buys when a DB formed on the 15min TF and 30 min TF, meaning that price was giving bullish signals on all the lower TF's i.e. timeframe confluence.
Mental stop was always at half the DB for each entered position.
Now currently, my positions are roughly 300 pips up and secured at entry.
I will leave them running till tomorrow and set TP 1 at a re-test of the ascending wedge pattern.
Sell Fib levels are also shown on the 1H TF, so tomorrow I will be watch for a reversal at these points (seems bulls have already pushed past the 0.382 sell fib level)
Hope you had a good day trading!
Catch ya tomorrow!
What could I have done differently / better?
Pretty happy with my performance today, I was patient and waited for market to give me a signal to buy. I also managed risk well by scaling in my buys as confirmation grew stronger and stronger on the various TF's
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
75: Post-Liquidation Strategy for Nasdaq Mini FuturesAfter liquidating longs at the low, we aim to hold the level of 20,712 in the Nasdaq Mini Futures market.
Recent market movements have shown increased volatility, making it crucial to identify key support and resistance levels. Staying informed about macroeconomic events and earnings reports is essential as these factors can significantly impact market direction.
Bullish Scenario:
If we maintain this level, we will wait for a gain at 20,713 and then look for new highs around 20,752.
Bearish Scenario:
When losing this level (20,712), we will shift our focus to 20,686 and wait for new scenarios to develop.
Staying vigilant and adaptable in this volatile market environment is key to navigating potential trading opportunities and risks.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 8 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None
Directional bias - BUY (because an overall trend is like the current of a fast flowing river, if you go against the fast flowing waters, you will go a shorter distance than you may expect. If you go with the current, you will go further than you may initially expect)
During analysis noted the following:
M TF - Bullish
W TF - price stalled at the 19'737 zone (with a shooting star and doji candle formations) but then price pushed higher
D TF - bullish with Friday Day candle closing with a strong momentum bull candle
Noted an area of interest:
Area of confluence highlighted in green is where D pivot + 4H 0.382 exactly align (as at morning analysis when fib was drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.)
Set a buy limit to enter a full buy position at this level.
As the morning progressed a descending triangle pattern formed, marked in blue lines
Entered a buy at the hand icon on the 30min TF (even though I thought that market may retrace to my area of interest, Nasdaq gave the clear sign that it was ready to move up).
Confirmations:
Market pattern - Descending triangle patterns usually break down but can break in either direction. In this case the pattern was broken upwards as the bullish support level (bottom horizontal line of triangle) held strong. I entered a buy when the 30min candle closed on the 30min TF. I waited for this candle close because I wanted to be sure that price could break the 1H S&R zone marked in the light blue highlight.
Also a DB had formed and neckline broken upwards on the 30min TF and temporary down trend line was broken - marked with orange lines
S&R - 1H S&R level was broken
Trend - buy is in the same direction as the overall trend and the temporary down trend line in blue had been broken too
Fib - none
Mental stop loss was placed at the pink thick line, which is half the height of the DB formation
Price moved 580 pips from my position.
I secured when price had moved 250 pips from my entry.
When market opened (US session) there was a tug of war between bears and bulls.
Price came down to my entry twice at C. - I removed my stop loss both times (the first two candle wicks at C.) because I wanted to see how price would react to the 30min EMA.
On the third wick down at C. I was out at entry because I did not feel confident as to the direction of market on the third bearish push down.
Decided I will enter again if price comes down to the pivot point and my area of interest.
If not, and if price moves up from here, then I will let my runner from Friday take advantage of the upward move.
Ultimately price moved 890 pips from my entry but I did not gain from this move because I was out at entry at C.
At least my runner took advantage of the buy and I live to trade another day.
What could I have done differently / better?
Looking at the price action now, I don't see a re-entry point that I would have been happy and confident with.
So ultimately, I am happy with the risk I took to watch price action at the 30 min EMA twice in a row by removing my stop loss (not something I usually do).
But I have no regrets to being out at entry, because it could have gone the other way today. So I took a risk and then protected my capital.
A good day on Nasdaq is a small loss, being out at entry or a win.
So I guess it was a good day! ;)
Hope you profited from this buy!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NAS100USD ( CORRECTIVE TURNING LEVEL ) ( 4H )NAS100USD
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency the price breakout resistance trendline , indicates the price is under bullish
RESISTANCE LEVEL: there is a blue line around 20,559 , indicates selling have already increase this level .
SUPPORT LEVEL : there is a red line around 20,245 , indicates buying have already increase this level .
PRICE MOVEMNET : the price between support level and resistance level , in my opinion after the price breakout the resistance trendline price stabilizing bullish , so the price corrective a support level around 20,245 , after rising to resistance level at 20,559, then stabilizing this level reach 20,750 , if the breaking support level at 20,245 by open 4h candle below this level reach a 20,088
TARGET LEVE L :
RESISTANCE LEVEL :20,559 , 20,750
SUPPORT LEVEL : 20,245 ,20,088
XAUUSD M30 - Sell Signal (trend)XAUUSD M30
As we can see actively, we are trying to break south of the previous area of M15 and M30 consolidation. Depending on how we trade as we settle in to the EURO/LON session, we may look to trade something on a similar basis to this M30 trend. Something similar to that indicated with the red arrows.
M30 LTF trend entries, or $2390/oz major resistance swing entry. It's obviously very early on in the week, and I'd like to see us settle into the week more, before jumping in to anything.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Friday 5 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 13h00 GMT
Economic news - NFP @ 13H30
Directional bias - BUY (overall trend on Nas is bullish - "The trend is your friend")
During analysis noted the following:
Usually don't like trading in the morning before NFP (because often market is just consolidating) - so did my analysis just before the news came out.
I am still figuring out my personal method of trading NFP, but I lean towards trading with the trend and trying to get in on a spike down.
Price was at about the arrow when I did my analysis.
I noted a DT had formed on the 1H TF - neckline and profit target marked with green lines. Profit target = same height as the market pattern.
Also noted that if price dips from where it was at the arrow, then a DT would be formed on the 4H TF - neckline and profit target marked with purple lines.
At the time of analysis, the 4H EMA was right at the profit target of the purple DT.
I have noticed that even during news, very strong areas of confluence can still cause price to bounce (sometimes enough to be able to secure at entry after price has moved 250 pips from entry).
So because I felt that market is still chasing that orange profit target, from the huge orange consolidation triangle, I felt convinced of my directional bias.
I had two strong areas of interest:
Area 1:
Profit target of purple DT + 4H EMA + Strong S&R (previous swing high on 4H TF) + 4H 0.382 fib zone (Fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.)
So at this area, you would get pattern traders possibly entering, EMA traders possibly entering, fib traders possibly entering and S&R traders
Area 2:
4H 0.50 fib level + D 0.382 fib level + strong support on 4H TF.
So I set buy orders for quite big positions at these areas.
It's risky because NFP can be so incredibly volatile and can just smash so far down that you can bust your account.
Area 1 was 1'400 pips from where price was at the arrow and area 2 was 2'500 pips from where price was.
So be sure your account can handle your buy orders if a large draw down occurs.
Because these 2 area's were so far down, I felt I had to set a buy order somewhere higher.
I identified Area 3:
Profit target of 1H DT + 1H 0.50 fib + 1H EMA + somewhat of a S&R zone on 1H TF.
But because this was so close to where price was, I set a buy order for a much smaller position.
NFP news came out, and my Area 3 buy order triggered.
Had a draw down of about 278 pips and price touched the Daily pivot and reversed (I find it so interesting how price can spike down to a very specific point and then reverse on the spot and fly).
Clearly, many traders had set buy orders at this level.
Price skyrocketed and I feel it is chasing that orange profit target level.
Ultimately price moved 2'200 pips from my position.
My profit target is at the orange profit target line end and I am still in the game (didn't close as yet).
Patience paid off and I am happy to end a relatively quiet week of missed trades (because of work deadlines) with a BANG!!!
Hope you caught this awesome buy and made nice money!
Have a great weekend!
Monday we trade again! :)
AI Bubble grows above resistance for QQQThe gap up and follow through today shows a clear break above the 2010 trading channel that has provide resistance so far. I see a pattern very close to that of July 6, 2020. The is not confirmation yet that price is out of the channel and that resistance has become support, but for the bulls this is a very good start. I would expect the bulls to try and run with it now that price is above the channel. I will also be watching for a pullback to test for support in the near future. If that can hold, the AI bubble may get really pumped. We can never know what will spook the market, but right now it feels like the sky is the limit.
Today
July 6, 2020
NAS100 NASDAQ Technical Analysis and Trade Idea US100👉🔍 In this video, we analyze the NAS100 index. It's evident that the NASDAQ has been showing strong upward momentum in a bullish trend. However, considering today is Friday, I anticipate a potentially sharp retracement with the US100. My strategy involves monitoring the 15-minute chart for signs of sideways movement and a potential reversal, which could present a selling opportunity targeting the previous swing low.
It's important to note that these observations are speculative and not a definitive forecast. Confirming specific price movements is crucial before considering any buying or selling decisions, as elaborated in the video. The video provides a comprehensive analysis of the current trend, market structure, and price dynamics. Remember, this educational content is designed to enhance understanding and does not guarantee outcomes. Trading inherently involves substantial risks, so employing robust risk management techniques is essential. 📈🔔
NAS100 Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for NAS100.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 20,164.1.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 19,774.4 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Nasdaq Reaches New All-Time High with Potential Retest in SightTechnical Analysis: Price Reaches New All-Time High
Today's Outlook:
The price has breached previous high levels and is trending towards a new all-time high of around 20410. A retest of this level might occur, potentially pushing the price towards 2100.
Bearish Scenario:
For a bearish trend to be confirmed, the price must break below 20100 and stabilize with a 4-hour candle close beneath this level. This could lead to a decline towards 19845 and potentially 19625.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as the price remains above 20100, the bullish trend is likely to continue, targeting 20410. There is also a possibility of a retest down to 20100 before resuming the upward movement.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 20250
- Resistance Levels: 20400, 20530, 20650
- Support Levels: 20100, 19960, 19845
Today's Expected Range:
The price is expected to fluctuate between the support at 19845 and the resistance at 20410, with an overall downward trend anticipated for today.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Wednesday 3 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - ADP Non-farm Employment Change + initial jobless claims
Early market close today - volume & volatility may be light today
Directional bias - BUY
During early morning analysis noted the following:
Yesterday the bulls pushed higher, breaking out from the 4H consolidation triangle that had formed. Bulls managed to close the D candle higher than the previous highest D close.
Bulls were flexing muscles yesterday.
Usually the profit target on a break out of a consolidation triangle is the same height as the height of the triangle itself (marked in orange lines). This means that theoretically we can expect a significant move up.
I suspect that price may retrace today - possibly a shallow retracement before moving up because bulls will be pushing for the orange profit target.
Identified two areas of interest (as at 6am GMT) highlighted in green. If price comes to these areas, I will enter a buy at my full position size;
Area 1:
Pivot point + 4H 0.382 fib level (drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.) + 1H 0.618 fib level (drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D)
Area 2:
Top of the consolidation triangle (i.e. assuming market would want to re-test this market pattern) + 4H 0.50 fib level + 4H EMA (EMA was at this area in the morning)
But I think it is unlikely that price will come down this far because the retest of the consolidation triangle already happened on the 1H TF i.e. the red candle close to C. (quite a high time frame thus representing a strong re-test)
Noted another consolidation triangle formed on the 1H TF (as marked by the dark pink lines) during the morning hours.
Entered a buy as price started breaking upwards from the market pattern (indicated by the hand).
I generally don't like to enter on these early morning market patterns because I've seen they are often prone to fake-outs on Nas100.
But I was watching price action carefully on the 5min, 15min and 30min TF's and bulls seemed to hold breakout strong. I entered gradually as my confidence rose that this is not a fake out.
Mental stop was placed below the consolidation triangle (marked with the thick pink line).
Market moved up by more than 250 pips and I secured my trades at entry.
Bears stepped in forcing a retracement and I was out at entry.
Price touched the 1H EMA and this was enough dynamic support to invite bulls back into play.
At this moment I was very distracted with work deadlines an unable to pay the close attention to my charts as I usually do. So I did not re-enter.
But looking back at the candles now, the buy entry at E. was not an easy one. Nas did not give clear confirmation. The bulls momentum candle was right as the US session opened at 14h30.
There was no nice DB on the 5min nor the 15min TF (which are the TF's I use for precision entries).
The bullish momentum candle came up so high that it just didn't feel right (to me).
Perhaps the correct entry would have been at F. which was the re-test of the uptrend pink line and also the 0.618 fib level on the 1H TF (fib drawn from swing low E. at to swing high at G.) But this entry style is not my entry style.
Usually what I do to combat these kinds of situations is to leave a small runner open. So for example if I had a successful trade open yesterday and market moved up +- 2'000 pips let's say...then I would leave a small runner open.
For me, it removes the FOMO I feel when Nas just turns around without much confirmation, because then I still feel like I am "part of" the big move up and dont feel like I am missing out.
Then my runners take advantage of days like today and I re-enter my bigger positions into the uptrend on strong retracement interest areas.
I recently closed all my runner's on the 3 bear day candle closes.
Hope you caught this nice buy!
If you did...tell me how you got in!?
Not trading tomorrow....see ya Friday!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 2 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Directional bias - BUY because for me there has not been a reversal market pattern on a high TF (at least the D TF).
During analysis noted the following:
M - June M candle closed with a massive bullish candle which was 16'886 pips in size. May M candle was 16'453 pips in size - so there is no slow down in bullish momentum on this high TF.
W - Last W candle close also could not break the resistance at 19'740 and closed in a doji candle. So now we have a shooting star candle + a doji candle + a colour change candle on the W TF. So this could indicate that bulls are losing momentum at this point. Price could either be stalling at this point and then push further up or price could be stalling with bears stepping in. So further confirmation is needed.
D - Potential DT forming with the neckline right at the resistance level that can't be broken on the W TF.
4H - Massive consolidation triangle forming (you could see it clearly this morning on the 4H TF if you change chart type to line chart, marked in orange lines ((although now broken upwards at time of writing)) Also a large DB formed with neckline broken up and price retesting neckline.
Entered a buy at 19'755 (as indicated by the hand) - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - DB formed on 30min TF (marked in turquoise lines) with neckline broken upwards. Entered at break of the neckline. This DB formed right at the area of weekly resistance and above the pivot point, indicating that market is rejecting this area and bulls are stepping in to possibly break this zone. Also on the 15 min TF, there is a DB right at the pivot point , with nice long wick candles sticking out below the pivot point, indicating that bears pushed hard to break this support zone down but bulls fought back and held the zone strong (candlestick confirmation). Timeframe confluence also exists because we have a DB formed and completed on 15min TF + DB formed and completed on 30min TF and DB in progress on 1H TF + this zone represents the re-test of the neckline of the 4H DB so clearly price is rejecting this 4H neckline and ready to move up.
2. S&R - market clearly rejecting the daily pivot point
3. Fib - 4H 0.382 is in the same zone as the pivot point
4. Trend - overall Nasdaq is bullish and trade is in the same direction as overall trend - "the trend is your friend". Plus current temporary uptrend line (bottom of consolidation triangle on the 4H TF)
5. Break & re-test - 4H DB break of the neckline and re-test
SL was a mental stop placed at the thick pink line (i.e. half the height of the DB market pattern)
Market moved up the full profit target of the market pattern (i.e. the same distance up as the height of the market pattern)
Then price came back down to re-test the neckline, but bulls couldn't hold strong and price pushed down further.
Usually I would secure my trades at entry after price moves 250 pips from entry. Unfortunately, price only moved up 240 pips and then moved down.
So took a loss of about 300 pips when my SL hit.
Not sad about this entry - it was based on good confirmations on high timeframes.
Then I missed a great entry due to a mistake I made during my morning analysis.
For the D TF, I drew my Day fib from swing low at A to swing high at B.
I should have drawn my Day fib from swing low at C to swing high at D - reason being because market had already retraced at C. so this should have been my most recent swing low.
Such a rookie error! Can't actually believe I made this mistake.
But had I drawn my fib correctly, I would have identified a really strong area of interest (marked in the green highlight on the 30min TF).
This was an area of confluence because it was the intersection between the orange uptrend line, the 4H and the D 0.618 fib.
Under usual circumstances I would have entered at such a strong zone because price would for sure bounce from this zone. Probably bounce enough for me to secure my trade and then if bears persist, market would take me out at entry.
So I missed this trade and market moved up 3'000 pips - OUCH!
But I live to trade another day!
Hope you caught this great buy and made nice profit!! :)
What could I have done differently / better?
My real issue here was that I was using my old charts from last week. Usually I would use fresh charts each week. Essentially being lazy and not creating a new set of charts for this weeks trading, caused me to rely on old fibs.
Laziness will always bite you in the behind!
NAS100 H4 | Falling to pullback supportNAS100 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 19,521.53 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 19,333.00 which is a level that lies underneath the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 19,900.09 which is a pullback resistance level.
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NAS100 Will Fall! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for NAS100.
Time Frame: 7h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 19,717.14.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 19,399.12 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!