NASDAQ 100 CFD
USNAS100 (2H, Toward Bearish Station)Technical Analysis:
For the NASDAQ, as long as the price trades below 18,820, it is likely to drop to 18,735. To continue the bearish trend towards 18,550, the price must break below 18,735. Conversely, if the price stabilizes above 18,820, a bullish scenario will be activated, supporting a rise towards 19,100.
Pivot Line: 18,820
Resistance Levels: 18980, 19100, 19210
Support Levels: 18735, 18550, 18440
Today's range is expected to be between the support at 18,550 and the resistance at 19,100.
US100 NAS100 Technical Analysis and Trade Idea Taking a comprehensive view of the NAS100 (NASDAQ) , we observe a prevailing bullish trend, particularly evident when analyzing the weekly charts. Notably, we’ve identified bullish price action—a decisive break in market structure on the 4-hour timeframe—which could potentially shift the 4-hour trend to bearish in the short term before it continueds bullish. In our video, we delve into trend analysis, explore price action dynamics, dissect market structure, and introduce key technical analysis concepts. Toward the video’s conclusion, we present a trade idea. It’s essential to emphasize that this information serves educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. 📈🚀📊
NAS100 NASDAQ Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaThe US100 index demonstrates a strong bullish trend on the daily timeframe. Our main goal is to identify a buying opportunity that aligns with this trend. Assuming price action unfolds as described in the video analysis, favorable trading conditions are anticipated. The video covers critical elements, including trend analysis, price action insights, market structure, and a potential trade setup. Always exercise prudent risk management when trading, and keep in mind that this information is purely educational and not financial advice. 🚀📊
The price fell despite strong NVDA earnings. What's the cause?Nasdaq Falls 2.0% Amid Investor Uncertainty and Fed Caution
The Nasdaq fell by 2.0% on a subdued Thursday as investors adjusted their portfolios amid shifting market sentiment. The trading session was marked by an uneasy atmosphere following the release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes, which indicated that central bankers are in no hurry to reduce interest rates .
This cautious stance from the Fed has been a key factor in supporting the recent upward trend in stocks.
Technical Analysis:
The Nasdaq is poised to test the 18,715 level before likely retreating to 18,600. A bearish trend will be confirmed if the price stabilizes below 18,600, potentially driving it down further to 18,435. Conversely, a bullish scenario will emerge if the price breaks above the 18,660 threshold.
pivot line: 18710
Resistance Price: 18790, 18920, 19100
Support price: 18550, 18440, 18250
Its range for Today will be between Support 18250 and Resistance 18790
Bullish bounce off pullback support?NAS100 is falling towards a support level which is a pullback support and could potentially bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 18,427.71
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 18,149.88
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 18,899.05
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
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US30 (DowJones) - 4H a bearish correctionThe Dow Jones has recently captured liquidity above the previous high, as indicated by the sharp move and subsequent rejection from the highlighted resistance zone.
This failure to consolidate above the resistance suggests that the bullish momentum has temporarily exhausted, and we could see a retracement.
The price is likely to pull back to the green support zones marked on the chart before attempting another bullish push.
Traders should watch for potential buy opportunities at these support levels, anticipating a bounce and continuation of the upward trend after this correction.
NAS100 I Potential scalp & intraday long from support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** NAS100 Analysis - Listen to video!
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NAS100 FORECASTThe previous updated analysis on NAS100 indicates that it has successfully reached our full target. Currently, it is expected that the prices will fluctuate within the range of 18,890 to 18,712. However, if the pivot line at 18,712 is breached, the decline is likely to extend to 18,642.
Key Levels:
Bullish Line: 18890, 18970, 19050
Pivot Line: 18712
Bearish Line: 18805, 18642, 18548, 18330
NAS100 FORECASTThe current forecast for OANDA:NAS100USD indicates a likely bullish trend. As long as the 4h candle opens above 18550, the index is expected to trend upwards, initially reaching 18725 and then continuing to the strong bullish target of 18805. Conversely, if the 4h candle opens below 18550, the trend will likely shift downward, first reaching 18415 and then moving to the strong bearish support at 18330.
Key Levels:
Bullish Line: 18675, 18725, 18805
Pivot Line: 18550
Bearish Line: 18475, 18415, 18330
USNAS100 (More Bullish Pressure)USNAS100 New Forecast
The price remains under bullish pressure, aiming for further gains to record a new all-time high.
As long as it trades above 18650, the bullish trend is expected to continue towards 18790, 18950, and 19100. However, if the price reverses and stabilizes below 18600, it indicates a correction down to 18435.
pivot line: 18655
Resistance Price: 18790, 18950, 19100
Support price: 18555, 18435, 18230
Its range for Today will be between Support 18550 and Resistance 18790
USNAS100 (Rally with some Correction)USNAS100 New Forecast
The price maintains bullish pressure due to NVIDIA's strong profits.
Technically, a correction is anticipated down to 18435. Stability below this level would indicate a continuation of the bearish trend towards 18235. Conversely, stability above 18661 would support a bullish trend, with the first target being 18790.
pivot line: 18600
Resistance Price: 18660, 18880, 19100
Support price: 18435, 18250, 17990
Its range for Today will be between Support 18235 and Resistance 18790
On the economic data front, weekly initial jobless claims, S&P global flash PMI readings and durable goods data are due through the week.
Global market participants were also closely watching out for developments around the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, a hardliner seen as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a helicopter crash.
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook • Key event risks for the week ahead.
• Nvidia’s Q125 earnings, a key driver of equity markets this week.
• Fed speakers could move markets – Powell, Waller, and Jefferson in the spotlight.
• US equity markets at all-time highs – fatigued, but well-supported.
• Copper, gold, platinum, and silver are all on fire.
The key event risks for traders this week
We look ahead and eye the key event risk, where I would be paying particular attention to earnings from Nvidia, and speeches from Fed members Waller (he speaks 3 times this week), Jefferson and Chair Powell. We get UK, and Canadian CPI, and will keep a beady eye on the narrative out from the RBNZ meeting, which will keep rates hold but guide on the future direction of rates. We also get manufacturing and services PMIs in the US, UK, Australia, and Europe.
UK CPI (due Wed at 16:00 AEST) could get the GBP moving – in either direction – with UK swaps market pricing a near 60% probability of a 25bp cut in the 20 June BoE meeting, and 55bp of cuts by December, and with core CPI expected to fall to 3.6% y/y (from 4.2%) and headline CPI eyed at 2.1% y/y, a lower-than-forecast CPI print could cement a June cut in the market eyes. For those wanting to trade GBP downside, short GBPNZD was the play last week, although, with the RBNZ meeting due on Wednesday, an extension of this trade has risk.
Nvidia should beat but by how much?
Q125 earnings from Nvidia could get the AI-related semis and the NAS100 firing up (or lower), and even set off moves across other markets too. When the options market prices an 8.6% move on the day of earnings, if this implied move proves to be correct, that’s a staggering $195b in market cap gained or lost in a likely 60-minute window. It would also equate to a -/+0.5% move in S&P500 futures in the after-hours session.
We know Nvidia will likely beat the sell-side (investment banks) consensus estimates for revenue, EPS, and gross margins - they always do - but it’s the extent of the beat that matters. Q125 sales are eyed at $24.61b, with Q225 sales guidance expected to come in around $26.72b – one suspects they’ll need to hit us with sales of GETTEX:26B + for Q125 sales and GETTEX:29B for Q225 sales respectively, with CEO Jensen Huang with inspiring guidance to get this pumping like we saw in February.
Fed speakers to watch out for
The message last week from the Fed was one of patience and this message is likely what we’ll hear from Fed speakers this week as well. Chair Powell, Fed board member Waller and Vice-chair Jefferson will be the central focus here, and their views on inflation and policy could move markets, although broadly, markets feel comfortable with the current pricing of 43bp of cuts priced by December, and we see US 2yr Treasuries holding a range of 4.89% to 4.70%.
Last week’s US CPI was encouraging and while this week’s US PMI data could move the dial, notably, if the services print were to surprise and pull below 50 (consensus is at 51.4) it could lift volatility and promote USD sellers. That said, it feels like the market is looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls print on 7 June as the next big piece of the macro jigsaw.
US data has been missing the mark on a consistent basis since mid-April and that has led some to say the US economy is moving towards a ‘soft landing’ environment and away from a ‘no landing’ dynamic. Add in solid earnings beats and growth, a renewed belief in the ‘Fed put’ and a world with a huge appetite to sell volatility (the VIX now sits at a lowly 11.99%) - and we have the S&P500, Dow and NAS100 at all-time highs.
This is a tough market for those in short positions for more than an intraday day trade, and those positioned for downside would be hoping that Nvidia disappoints in a big way. Nvidia are not a company I would typically bet against, so even though the various US indices look tired, the platform is set for further highs and pullbacks should be shallow.
This is true of the HK50/CHINAH indices too, which have had another incredible week of gains. Data in China is lacking this week, so we are fully at the mercy of liquidity and flows. 20k is the near-term target for the HK50 index, but I would consider switching some of HK50 exposure towards the mainland equity markets and the CN50 index, which has broken out and outperformed HK equity on Friday.
We’ll see if some of the goodwill towards China can spill over into the ASX200, which saw supply above 7850 last week – should the ASX200 kick through 7860 early I would be looking for a re-test of Thursday’s highs (7900) and even new all-time highs above 7910.
Copper on fire
The action continues to be in the metals complex – the space is red hot. Copper closed 4.1% higher on Friday, taking the gains for the week to 8.3%, and for the trend-followers and momentum traders, the daily chart is a thing of beauty. Many know the story on reduced copper supply, and those highly focused on the copper scene would be aware of the massive short covering seen in CME futures positioning since mid-February (-42k contracts to stand at +72k) and the widening premium of CME copper to LME copper to $1041 - but the move in copper is momentum 101 and discretionary and systematic players have had to chase.
For FX traders, this move in copper remains a huge tailwind for the CLP (Chilean peso), where USDCLP has fallen 9.4% since mid-April.
Market players chasing silver, platinum and gold
The chase higher from various market players is also true in silver, which had its best week since August 2020, helped by a monster move of 6.5% on Friday, which took price through to the best levels since Feb 2013. Platinum has participated with an 8.8% weekly gain, while gold closed at a new closing high, and eyes the all-time intraday high of $2431.52 – a weekly close above here this week and the FOMO chase could be real.
The question of exactly what is driving the gold move above $2400 is one we hear frequently. The fact we saw US real rates (i.e. US bonds adjusted for expected inflation) rise 3bp higher on Friday – typically a headwind for gold - yet gold rallied 1.6% details that there are other factors than rates driving gold flows – these include a broad base rally in metals, central bank buying, increasing Chinese gold holdings (relative to its international reserves), a hedge against ballooning government deficits; it’s all there and it seems we always have to pick a reasoning behind a move after the fact.
I have little idea how anyone trades gold short-term from a purely fundamental standpoint. My view is to be a slave to price action, react, align with the short-term trend, and cut quickly when the move goes against you.
Anyhow, another big week of market themes and risk to have on the radar.
Good luck to all.
SPY May Rally Above $540 Before You Know It...My research continues to support more Bullish trending for the SPY and other US major indexes.
I keep seeing others propose a market crash scenario - week after week... after week.
I certainly hope you were not following their suggestions too closely - because the SPY has rallied more than 7% from the recent lows. That's a lot of losses piling up for anyone caught on the short side of the markets right now.
Watch my video. Learn how I read the markets in a different format. And learn how to use my research to help you become a better trader.
I've posted many training videos on TradingView - please spend some time checking them out.
Get ready for a potentially explosive move in the SPY - targeting $545+... possibly rallying above $560 before the end of June 2024.
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