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NASDAQ 100 CFD

The risk manager – putting the US Treasury’s QRA on the radar While the US500 and NAS100 juggernaut rolls on and the VIX index remains under 13%, we ask what could derail this risk rally. One event which has shown form through 2023 as a market mover is the US Treasury’s QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement). For background the ‘QRA’ – or Quarterly Refinancing Announcement – is where the US Treasury Department announce and quantify its financing needs for the quarter ahead, as well as the composition and breakdown of T-bill and bond issuance. In effect, the QRA could be a complete non-event for markets, or conversely result in a repeat of the powerful moves that we saw in both episodes in August and November - where the US Treasury’s (UST) QRA marked major turning points and trending conditions across bond, equity, and FX markets. In the art of risk management, the QRA is an event worth monitoring. Dates for the risk diary On 29 January the UST announce its financing estimates for the period ahead. 2 days later (31 Jan) we get the breakdown of issuance and USD amount per maturity that they plan to target – this is key. Coincidentally, just to spice things up, the breakdown of the USTs bond issuance falls on the same day as the FOMC meeting. The August 2023 QRA case study In August 2023 the US Treasury detailed they would finance its ballooning fiscal deficit by issuing a greater amount of longer-term US Treasuries than what was expected. With the Fed no longer a buyer of US Treasuries and Japan and China reducing its UST holdings, the highly price-sensitive private sector was asked to take down the increased bond supply. The result was a sharp sell-off in the US 10yr Treasury, with yields rising from 4% to 5%. As US bond yields soared the S&P500 fell from 4600 to 4100, while the USD index (DXY) rallied by over 5%. The November 2023 QRA case study Turn to the following QRA in November 2023 and the US Treasury was keen to curb the sell-off in Treasuries, and a rising interest expense bill - subsequently announcing they would finance its fiscal shortfall away from longer-term bonds and towards US T-bills (debt instruments with maturities of less than 12 months). While we can also attribute some of the move in markets to the Fed ‘pivot’ and rising expectations of a rate-cutting cycle, amid a soft landing – the move towards ultra short-term T-bill issuance saw the US 10yr yield trend to 3.78%, largely driven by term premium falling from +40bp to -45bp. Subsequently, the DXY fell 6% and the S&P500 rallied 16%. Watch RRP balances The RRP facility is an important monetary policy tool for the Fed, as it sets a floor on short-term interest rates (repo, money markets). With money market funds holding a preference to buy US T-bills at govt auctions, over investing in the RRP facility, we’ve seen a consistent drawdown in the level of the RRP facility to $639.56b (search this on TradingView under code – RRPONTSYD). There are growing concerns that should RRP balances fall below $200b it may start to cause real stress in market funding rates, which as we saw in 2019 would have significantly negative implications for broad market sentiment. Many consider SOFR (Secured Overnight Finance rate) to be the most important market rate of all, as it represents the cost of short-term financing. If SOFR rates move higher than the level the Fed pays banks to park their excess reserves on their balance sheet (currently 5.4%) – a tool used to put a ceiling on short-term rates - it would show the Fed’s monetary policy levers are no longer functioning efficiently, and that the funding channels are broken. Traders can monitor this on TradingView by using the code FRED:SOFR-FRED:IORB – should this push above 0bp and certainly above 10bp it will get great attention. Break it down So, the concern is if the UST keep its current funding needs to be skewed towards T-bills, then RRP balances will likely fall to worrying levels, funding costs could blow out and equities will take a bath with the USD rallying on safe-haven flows. Conversely, if the US Treasury move to skew its borrowing needs towards long-term Treasury issuance, then term premium would rise and US 10yr Treasury yields would move higher, again taking the USD higher and equity lower – a re-run of the bearish moves we saw between August and October. This is a very simplistic breakdown of what is a highly technical concept, but the mix of debt funding could cause some short-term gyrations and it potential result in an earlier end to QT. Given the US deficit is a growing market and political issue, how it’s funded matters for markets - One for the radar.
FRED:SOFR
by Pepperstone
NAS100 - MY DAILY AND INTRADAY ANALYSES (TARGET 17300)Yes this is contrarian, markets are booming but it's quite overextended and going long at a top is the most monkey trader thing to do. I'll do a reverse analysis where I start with the intraday and follow up with the daily. So here's my take on things: What's on the intraday chart? (Follow the steps) 1) A 4 hour bearish FVG. This will serve as my entry zone. 2) Our 'support line'. You'll notice price keeps on making lower lows. 3) Our liquidity target. This is the price magnet. We know for certain (discretionary) that price will take this out. 4) The entry point. Again, do your own research. Do not follow the analysis from some random stranger on the internet and go all in (you degenerate). 5) The intraday target. The order of things matter. If we hit this before hitting the short entry then you might wanna reverse the idea but I do not like the idea of longing in an overextended market! What's on the daily chart? (Follow the steps) 1) The previous all time high that was violently broken. 2) Our swing extension target area. This is great to know where to take partials or close entire positions in new price territories. Of course price can always go further towards 2 or 2.618 or anything else (it's up to you where you wanna take partials). 3) The bearish candle pattern: kind-of a mix between a gravestone, a spinning top, a shooting star and whatever other label I can muster to justify my bias lol. To me this is the main driver of the bearish bias! 4) Maximum target. I do not see price going any lower and the intraday target is more sane so I don't really expect price to go that low either. 5) The continuation of the rally. People love buying. I do not see that changing anytime soon. As always, have a lovely day and happy trading! ;)
FX:NAS100Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Tuesday 23 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. At time of analysis I noted the following: I still had some buy positions running from yesterday. Noted that the early morning bulls had pushed up and were respecting the orange uptrend line. Unfortunately, bulls could not break through the pivot point and a double top formed close to C. on the 1H TF. When a doji candle closed at C. (bulls again not able to break through pivot point, which was also the 0.382 Fib sell retracement level (fib drawn from swing high at A. to swing low at B.)) – I knew market would sell and I closed all my buys from yesterday at a small loss. In my trading style, I would only want to trade with the trend (the trend is your friend). I felt like Nasdaq would not buy any further today until we have earnings forecasts on the table which justify a further rally. That would not come during the trading day today, because we are all waiting for Netflix tonight and Tesla tomorrow. Until there is a bigger TF confirmation of a sell, I am not interested in taking intraday sells on such a strong bull trend. My view was that market would consolidate and be choppy today. Judging by the price action, I feel it was. I did not enter again today but I do have a buy limit at E. because this is an area of confluence: Market pattern – At this level price would have moved down the same distance as the height of the 4H Head & Shoulders and would most probably retest the neckline. I like being part of a re-test that is in the same direction as the overall trend. S&R: 4H EMA is in this region Fib: this area is close to the 0.618 buy fib level and also in the proximity of the sellers TP2. What could I have done differently: Glad I stayed out today. Hope you managed to squeeze out some pips! Although not for me personally, the sell from D. was nice – 0.618 sell fib + 4H neckline + 1H & 4H market pattern (timeframe confluence). TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Crash Loading - The Black Swan The current state of the NASDAQ indicates an extreme overbought condition, with a rally influenced by speculation surrounding six potential rate cuts in 2024. However, the risk arises from the Federal Reserve's concern about inflation. If the Fed, in response to persistent inflation, opts to raise rates, it could lead to a market decline. Conversely, a decision to cut rates may not be sufficient to buoy the stock market if the number of cuts is lower than expected. Examining current fundamentals, the housing market has stabilized with low prices and mortgage rates. Although there is a rebound, a potential increase in housing speculation and mortgage rates could prompt a reassessment. Improved employee wages contribute to consumer confidence against inflation. President Joe Biden's initiatives, such as pausing student loan payments in November and plans to provide homes for 500,000 Americans, may stimulate housing demand, causing prices to rise. This could prompt a review of interest rates and a tightening of monetary policies. While I maintain a long-term bullish outlook, anticipating a correction of at least 50%, it is prudent to reevaluate macroeconomic indicators at that point to determine whether to take profits or continue holding.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by ttfx098_
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Monday 22 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. At time of analysis I noted the following: Early morning bulls had push up even further. Bullish trend is clear and I will be looking exclusively for a buy – “The trend is your friend” However, on pulling the fib (drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B1.) on the 4H TF and noting the pivot point – I note that the retracement levels are far down from were price currently is. In this instance one must be careful because even a shallow retracement can be more than 1000 pips down and the pivot point is +- 2000 pips down. So if you are like me and only put your daily trading budget into your account, one can easily bust your account by going in too early with a buy and then market retraces further. Also, bulls pushed straight up on Friday with zero retracement, so the chance for a retracement today is high. As the morning progressed, a small double top formed on the 1H TF. Neckline broke and price moved down. The purple support line held seven long wick candles from breaking down (candle 1. and 7. are indicated). So even though sellers were pushing down hard, buyers held the support strong. I entered a small buy at C. (20% of my usual position size) – Confirmations: Candles sticks – long wick candles on the 1H TF indicating sellers were unable to push down S&R – Support zone holding strong Market pushed up 434 pips and as it came down again I closed half of that position at a small loss. I limited my risk because I noted that market had touched the top trend line of the D ascending wedge and then moved bearish from there. I wanted to protect my margin as a bigger retracement might take place and I would rather get in lower. So now I had 10% of my usual position open. I don’t regret this entry and still think it was a valid entry. My plan was to open another small position at the 1H 20 EMA at E. (depending on the 5min price action in this zone and then another bigger % buy position at the 4H 0.382 retracement level (to me this is an area of confluence because there is an uptrend intersecting with this zone). When market opened at 2:30pm GMT, price touched the top trend line at B2, but still closed in the green. I entered another 20% buy as this candle closed (at D.) at 3pm GMT. This was a hasty entry and one that I regret. I only entered because the 4H candle closed green and I felt like the purple support zone was holding strong on the 4H TF. I didnt think about a possible double top forming on the 4H (how silly am I). But I should have stuck with my original plan because market came down almost immediately and a double top formed on the 4H. As market came down, I realized my mistake and closed half of my position at D. to limit my loss in case of a bigger retracement. So I had a small position at C. and at D. still open. I entered as planned another small buy at E. But market didn’t really move much. I suspect investors are waiting for Netflix earnings tomorrow. So I am now in a predicament. The day is nearly done and I have 3 small buy positions open. If I look at how the candles are reacting to the 1H and 30 min EMAs, I don’t like what I see. But there are long wick candles and a strong previous bulls reaction near the 0.382 retracement level. Do I close and take my losses for the day? Or chance it and swing it till tomorrow? It just feels wrong to close a buy on such a strong bull run…but then again, everyone is watching earnings with bated breath to see if the Nadaq highs are validated. What could I have done differently: Not entered at D. But overall, even though the sell was the best move for the day, I don't regret my trading plan for today. I would not have entered a sell on such a bullish trend. Maturity is starting to show in my risk management and my choice of position size in these more aggressive entries. At least I kept it small! Hope you had a great trading day and squeezed out some pips! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo - The Most Underrated Indicator (e.g. NAS100)Welcome to my first educational post. This is a big one, Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is the most underused, underrated, least understood and yet most powerful trend indicator available to the general public. I'll first briefly describe the 4 components: - Tenkan Sen (turning line): it's like a small period moving average but calculated slightly differently. So if price breaks it, it's a first signal of a trend reversal but always wait for the retest. - Kijun Sen (standard line): it's like a larger period moving average but like the Tenkan it's calculated differently. One interesting note is that when it flatlines it represents the 0.5 fib level of the current range. Together, they are used for crossovers just like classic moving averages. - Kumo (Cloud): which is composed of 2 special moving averages called the Senkou Span A and the Senkou Span B. Generally serves as a support/resistance zone and is also subject to crossovers that can confirm reversals (not signal) since it is too slow to signal them. The thicker the cloud the stronger the trend and vice versa. - Chikou Span (Lagging Span): Mirrors current price action 26 periods in the past. In simple terms, it puts things into perspective and can detect potential blocking points for price. Here is a case study of the NAS100 and monthly Ichimoku: What do we see? (Follow the steps) 1) Price breaking the Tenkan and retesting it twice. This is already a major bearish signal. 2) Following the Tenkan break, price doubled down and broke the Kijun + retested it TWICE! A strong bearish confirmation that the downtrend will continue. 3) The Tenkan/Kijun crossover, this is like a death cross of MAs (look it up). 4) This is a reversal signal. You'll notice how price never touched the cloud again. The monthly Ichimoku really puts things into perspective. It really enables you to see the bigger picture and that it is okay to buy in a bear market. You just have to let it guide you. 5) First confirmation of the reversal: the break of the Tenkan + retest. 6) Second confirmation of the reversal: the break of the Kijun + no retest was even needed. 7) 'Golden cross', the Tenkan/Kijun crossing over which is the third confirmation and that price is simply extremely bullish. 8) The Chikou Span breaking past price. This is similar to price breaking a resistance level, it gives the same kind of signal. This is the final bullish confirmation. This a very summarised explanation of how the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator should be used BUT if you want to learn more about it, I strongly suggest you read the book by Karen Péloille: Trading With Ichimoku, A Practical Guide to Low-Risk Ichimoku Strategies. As always, have a lovely Sunday and happy trading! ;)
FX:NAS100Education
by Lexi_Is_Trading
3
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook: living in interesting times We reflect on the week that was and where the US equity markets stole the show, with new highs in the S&P500, and the NAS100 outperforming all major equity markets. A.I names went on a tear on Friday, where notably Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD felt the love. With 16% of the S&P500 market cap reporting this week, earnings and corporate outlooks will play a greater role in the price action – it is hard to be short these markets given the upbeat flow but it’s hard to chase as well. Tesla and Netflix will be the trader favourites this week, with the options markets implying moves (on the day of reporting) of -/+ 5.4% and 7.5% respectively. Tesla needs to pull something out of the bag to turn sentiment around and we see price having lost 20% in the past 14 days. Netflix comes off the back of a 16.1% rally on the day of reporting Q323 numbers, so longs will be hoping for something similar, to take price above $500. A daily close below the 50-day MA and I’d be exiting longs. Conversely, the HK50 and CHINAH were savaged by over 5% and shorts continue to be the play, although a surprise cut to the 1 & 5-year Prime Rate would cause a decent reversal higher. Pushback from several central bankers on the start point and extent of rate cuts (priced into swaps markets) caused front-end bond yields to move higher last week, with the market reevaluating whether March is indeed the start date for many central banks to start a cutting cycle. In the case of the Fed, the implied probability has fallen to 50%, and this pricing should hold firm until we see core PCE print later in the week – The USD holds a fair relationship with the evolving implied pricing for a March Fed cut, where rate cut probability falls the USD rallies (and vice versa). The USD was the best performing G10 currency last week but with the ECB meeting in play this week, there are reasons to think EURUSD could push back into the 1.0950/70 area. The NZD gets close attention given the Q4 CPI print due and we’re seeing signs of diverging paths between the RBA and RBNZ in market pricing – looking for NZDUSD shorts on a momentum move through 0.6100 and AUDNZD longs at current spot levels, adding on a close through the 200-day MA. The flow and set-up in gold is a little messy and the price is chopping about – no real directional bias in the near term and would look at selling rallies on the week into $2055 and buying dips into $2000. While Nat Gas is getting good attention given price is in freefall, Crude is also on the radar with rallies recently sold into $75.20 and dips bought at $70 – A break on either side of that range could be meaningful. Politics also comes into focus with the New Hampshire REP primary held on Tuesday – it won’t be a market event but could pull Trump one step closer to becoming the REP nominee, a fate most fully expect. Good luck to all. Marquee economic data for traders to navigate: • China 1 & 5-year Loan Prime Rate – After the PBoC surprised and left the Medium-Lending Facility (MLF) rate unchanged last week the market now assumes the PBoC will also leave the 1 & 5-year prime rate unchanged at 4.2% & 3.45% respectively. The CHINAH was the weakest major equity market last week (-6.5% wow) and could revisit the October 2023 lows unless we see something far more definitive from the Chinese authorities. • BoJ meeting (23 Jan no set time) – this should be a low vol affair, where expectations for policy change at this meeting are incredibly low, and one would be highly surprised if the BoJ lift rates out of negative territory. Consider the BoJ will provide new CPI and GDP forecasts at this meeting, and they could be very telling of the future need to move away from a negative rate setting. • NZ Q4 CPI (24 Jan 08:45 AEDT) – the market sees Q4 CPI running at 0.5% QoQ / 4.7% YoY (from 5.6%. This is a clear risk for NZD exposures, where the outcome could see the market questioning if the RBNZ cut before/later than current pricing (in swaps) to start easing in May with 91bp of cuts priced by year-end. I like AUDNZD upside on growing central bank policy divergence. • EU HCOB manufacturing and services PMI (24 Jan 20:00 AEDT) – the market sees both surveys modestly improving at 44.8 (from 44.4) and 49.0 (48.8) respectively. A services PMI read above 50 would likely promote EUR buying. • UK S&P manufacturing and services PMI (24 Jan 20:30 AEDT) – The consensus is that we see the manufacturing diffusion index improving a touch to 46.7 (from 46.2), while services should grow at a slower pace at 53.0 (53.4). GBPUSD is carving out a range of 1.2800 to 1.2600 and I’m happy to lean into these levels for now. • US S&P global manufacturing and services PMI (25 Jan 01:45 AEDT) – the market looks for the manufacturing index to come in at 47.5 (from 47.9) and services at 51.0 (51.4). A services PMI print below 50 could cause some gyrations in the USD and equity. • Norges Bank meeting (25 Jan 20:00 AEDT) – The Norwegian central bank will almost certainly leave interest rates will stay unchanged at 4.5%. The market prices the first cut from the Norges Bank in June, with 107bp of cuts priced this year. • Bank of Canada meeting (25 Jan 01:45 AEDT) – the market prices no chance of action at this meeting. The first cut from the BoC is priced in April with 101bp of cuts priced this year, so USDCAD (and the CAD crosses) tone of the statement. • Japan Tokyo CPI (26 Jan 10:30 AEDT) – the market looks for headlines CPI to come in at 2% (from 2.4%), and super core at 3.4% (3.5%). The JP CPI print would need to miss/beat by some margin to cause a move in the JPY given the print is seen so soon after the BoJ meeting. • ECB meeting (26 Jan 00:15 AEDT) – the market ascribes no chance of a cut at this meeting, but the ECB will provide new growth and inflation forecasts. Recent communication from multiple ECB members suggests a growing consensus for a cut in June, although EU swaps pencil in the first cut in April (priced at 82%), with 136bp of cuts priced by December. • US core PCE inflation (27 Jan 00:30 AEDT) – the median estimate is for headline PCE to come in at 0.2% QoQ / 2.6% (unchanged) and core at 0.2% QoQ / 3% YoY (from 3.2%). US swaps put the probability of a cut in the March FOMC at 50%, so the PCE inflation data could influence that pricing and by extension the USD. New Hampshire (NH) REP Primary (23 Jan) – Donald Trump is leading Nikki Haley in the polls by 15ppt in NH, with Trump picking up votes with Vivek Ramaswamy recently exiting the race, while Nikki Haley is benefiting from Chris Christie’s recent departure. Haley must win here or come very close, or her chances of becoming the REP nominee drop sharply. There is talk that Haley may drop out after NH if she doesn’t come close to gaining the most votes in NH, although she may still run in the South Carolina Primary (24 Feb) given it’s her home state – either way, the race for the REP nominee could essentially be over depending on the outcome of the NH primary. Polls close at 8pm EST, so we should know the outcome shortly after that. US earnings – GE, Procter & Gamble, IBM (24 Jan after-market), Netflix (24 Jan 08:00 AEDT), Tesla (24 Jan after-market), Visa, Amex, Intel
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by Pepperstone
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Friday 19 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. At time of analysis I noted the following: The early morning bulls had pushed up significantly. This means that my bias would definitely be bullish and that I would look exclusively for a buy. Exclusively bullish because market broke the purple downtrend line and also the previous all-time high level. I had a small runner open from yesterday’s position (runner = 10% of my original position size). I noted the weakness in the price action at C. and the 4H red doji candle close at 7am GMT, I thought market would retrace and maybe test the previous all-time high level (marked in green) before reaching to the top of the Day ascending triangle (at B.) Unfortunately I closed my runner at C. and waited for a nice re-entry. For my trading style, no re-entry signal was given….bulls just pushed straight up. There was a small double bottom on the 15min TF, but I did not feel confident enough to enter a buy based on this alone. Ideally I would have liked to keep my runner open to grab those extra 1000 pips. I closed my runner at about 2600 pips profit, which isn’t bad, but 3600 would have been better! Weekend starts now! Hope you caught the buy! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
NASDAQ to continue in the upward move?NAS100USD - Intraday The 261.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 17117 from 16568 to 16773. A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 17184. There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited. Previous resistance, now becomes support at 17000. The medium term bias is neutral. We look to Buy at 17000 (stop at 16900) Our profit targets will be 17250 and 17290 Resistance: 17117 / 17184 / 17200 Support: 17000 / 16902 / 16801 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by OANDA
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Thursday 18 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. At time of analysis I noted the following: A double bottom had formed on the 1H and 4H TF. When market patterns form on both the 1H and 4H TFs, we have multi-timeframe confluence, and this is a very powerful confluence on Nasdaq (so always keep on eye out for these). The 1H double bottom had already broken the neckline by the time I did my analysis and rested the neckline at A. I was waiting for 4H to also break neckline with a candle close above the 4H market pattern neckline and a break through 20 EMA. I noted that the temporary orange down trend line had already been broken by the early morning bulls. The 1H candles were already closing above 1H 20 EMA The 30min 20 EMA was acting as dynamic support Pivot point was already below the candles and had also been retested at B. Fib: market had reached down nearly to 0.50 retracement level on D TF and now moving up All this combined, indicated that bulls were in the market. I entered a full position buy at C. Confirmations – Market Pattern: Double bottom on 1H and 4H TF had the necklines broken. Also on the 15min TF you can see a triangle chart pattern (consolidation pattern) which was broken to the upside. Candlesticks: None specifically but all 4H candles had been green since the early morning, indicating bull momentum Trendline: Temporary orange downtrend was already broken earlier in the morning S&R: candles were above 1H 20 EMA already and break of the 4H market pattern neckline also meant candle closed above 4H 20 EMA, so 4H 20 EMA would not be a resistance. Mental stop was placed below the pivot + 20 EMAs, because if candles started closing below this point then market would sell. You can see the doji’s on the 1H TF where buyers and sellers were fighting it out to determine if yesterday’s neckline would hold again today. Market pushed up and we are now at all-time highs again! :) I took partial profits twice at E. because this was the downtrend line (shown with the purple line) that was respected numerous times before. Also E. was roughly the same distance as the height of the 4H double bottom (indicated by the black line at F.). So chances were great that bears would step in at this point and the fight between bears and bulls can be seen by the candles / price action on the 15min TF. Eventually Nas broke to the upside and market is currently (at time of writing this) +- 2200 pips from my entry. Hope you caught the buy and making some good MONEY! What could I have done differently: It was a perfect day…wish everyday could be like this! Just want to say, that learning to trade was / is the hardest thing I have ever learnt to do (and I say that as a qualified Chartered Accountant). Don't give up on your trading dream. Some days are so good (like today) and other days are so so SOOOOO hard. Keep learning, keep growing, keep working on your mental game....it will all be worth it....just don't stop! :) :) TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
2024-01-17 - a daily price action after hour update - nasdaq Good evening and i hope you are well. We continue the big downs and big ups. Both sides can make money yet bears manage to make lower lows and lower highs. nasdaq e-mini futures Tricky. Bears making new lows but bulls buying it all and closing at the highs. Yet they did not manage to trade above yesterdays open and the globex high. I do think the move from 16689 up was strong enough to get a measured move to around 17000 but bulls first target tomorrow is 1h close above 16900. We clearly broke above of the triangle and the tight new bull channel could get us above 16900. Bears see it as a two legged move inside a broad bear channel. They will try to keep it under 16900 and close the week below 16700 or maybe even touch the lower bull wedge line from early december + early january at around 16600. That beeing said. Bears still can not close below the daily 20ema which is bullish. Bulls want a retest of the december high at 17165 and keep the big bull wedge alive. short term: sideways but can break out both ways again. we currently go up and down almost every day medium-long term: down
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 17 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Back from a bit of a long weekend! Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. At time of analysis I noted the following: Nasdaq had been moving strangely since CPI. Consolidating on the D TF with very long wick candles and doji’s forming. But the top wick’s of the day candles are adhering to a downtrend line. I noted that the bodies of the candles were closing lower on the 4H TF (point A. on 4H TF vs. point B on 4H TF). Market had pushed down heavily in the early hours of the morning. The line chart of the D TF showed a double top (neckline marked in darker blue). The 4H TF showed a double top (neckline marked in green). The 1H TF showed a head and shoulders pattern with an upward slanted neckline (marked in turquoise). All these bearish patterns, together with the D candles (showing loss of momentum of the buyers) indicated a very bearish mood in the market. I entered a sell at C. – Confirmations: Market Pattern: Bearish Patterns on 4H and 1H TF. C. represented a break in the neckline of both these patterns. Candlesticks: Red candles on 1H and 4H TF the whole morning till that point in time. Fib: None Trendline: None specifically. But the 4H TF candles closing with lower highs gave me a very rough trend (point A. vs point B. as motioned earlier) S&R: Candles had moved below pivot point and below the 1H and 4H 20 EMA, so dynamic support was broken. Point F. can be taken as a retest of the pivot and the 1H EMA which broke bearish. Mental stop was placed above the pivot point marked with a thick pink line. Market moved down quite rapidly and I took partial profit at D. because the 4H EMA was at this point and together with the 1H 200 EMA, I thought this might cause the bulls to step in. Took more profit at E. because of the 1H doji candle close and also because price had travelled down the full distance of the height of the market pattern of the 4H double top. So market was bound to retest the neckline from here. I kept a small portion of my position open just in case market turned bearish before the neckline but ultimately I was taken out at entry. After this trade and after having made some good money for the day (market had moved about 780 pips in my favour). I decided to not trade again based on how strangely market has been moving these past few days and that I should be happy to have caught such a good move. But, and here was my lesson for the day, there was a bigger and better move in the works. Price came back to test the neck line of both market patterns and then moved down again. Maintaining my discipline and respecting my decision not to trade again today, I entered a sell at G. on my DEMO account. Confirmations - Market Pattern: Retest of the neckline of both market patterns on 1H and 4H TFs Candlesticks: Red doji candle close on 1H TF Fib: G. was at 0.50 Fib level (fib drawn from swing high at B. to swing low at H.) S&R: Doji closed below 1H 20 EMA and also the 4H EMA Ultimately the move down was +- 2000 pips. So although I am impressed with my discipline of sticking to my decisions…I limited myself and lost out on a massive move. Over trading is one thing. But if Nas throws out 2 great opportunities in a day then be smart enough to recognise that this is not overtrading, but rather just taking advantage of what market has to offer. Don’t limit yourself and decide, like I did today, to take advantage of one opportunity and be done for the day. Nas can put out multiple opportunities in a single day and on other days, market is nothing but choppy. Take a moment to reflect what you define as over-trading and how this is different to taking advantage of multiple opportunities. Hope you caught the second sell! It was an easy trade….wish I had taken it with real money! What could I have done differently: Be discipled enough to avoid over trading but smart enough / flexible enough to go against my decision when such a great opportunity presented itself. Also the gap down on the 15min TF was COOL! :) TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq - Retracement TimeHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: For more than 10 years the Nasdaq has been trading in a very obvious rising channel formation. Considering that we saw a +50% pump in 2024, the Nasdaq is certainly ready for a (short term) correction back to the lower support trendline which I mentioned in my analysis. From there I do expect the longer term bullish continuation though. -------- I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied. Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Keep your long term vision.
TVC:NDQ
by basictradingtv
9
NAS100 - MY BEARISH SCENARIO (TARGET 16500)What are we looking at? 1) An all-time-high (ATH) to end 2023 with fireworks and champagne. 2) A sneaky daily bearish FVG that we know is relevant thanks to step 5 and 7. 3) A retracement creating a range that ends on the notorious 0.618 fib level (weekly fib). 4) The continuation of the general trend, price pulls back into the range and creates a daily bullish FVG. It is indeed plausible that price does continue and forms a new ATH but for arguments sake, I prefer the probabilities a short gives me in a premium market with more liquidity to grab on the sellside. 5) Price halts in the bearish FVG mentioned in step 2 and prior to that created a 4H bullish FVG. 6) The CPI release had price wick into the 4H FVG and back into the consolidation we go! 7) Price wicking at multiple occasions in the daily bearish FVG which is to me a primary signal for a short setup despite all the bullish price action around it. Listen, if price breaks buyside aggressively, no short will be taken. We need price to break a low and then a short structure may present itself. 8) Here we have the potential break to the downside, taking out sellside liquidity. We can also call this a break-of-structure. 9) A pullback for a potential short entry and voilà. 10) 2 targets for partials. NFA and happy trading guys! ;)
FX:NAS100Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
NAS100 H1 | Bullish bounce off 50.0% Fibo supportNAS100 is trading close to a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take profit target. Entry: 16,761.10 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level Stop Loss: 16,700.00 Why we like it: There is a level that sits under a pullback support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level Take Profit: 16,909.50 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:NAS100Long
by VantageMarkets
1
Will Nadsaq start a deep correction?The year 2023 proved to be exceptional for PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 , witnessing a 70% increase in the index. However, the onset of 2024 brought about a correction in the index. Notably, the rise observed in December is confined within a rising wedge, suggesting a potential reversal. The index has indeed breached the rising trend line of the wedge, and the recent rebound serves as confirmation of this break. Also NAS100 appears to face challenges surpassing the 17k mark. Confirmation for a new downward move would occur with a break below 16500. In such a scenario, levels to monitor for bearish targets include 16200, 15700, and a significant 14500.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by Mihai_Iacob
10