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Nas100analysis

NAS100 - MY DAILY AND INTRADAY ANALYSES (TARGET 17300)Yes this is contrarian, markets are booming but it's quite overextended and going long at a top is the most monkey trader thing to do. I'll do a reverse analysis where I start with the intraday and follow up with the daily. So here's my take on things: What's on the intraday chart? (Follow the steps) 1) A 4 hour bearish FVG. This will serve as my entry zone. 2) Our 'support line'. You'll notice price keeps on making lower lows. 3) Our liquidity target. This is the price magnet. We know for certain (discretionary) that price will take this out. 4) The entry point. Again, do your own research. Do not follow the analysis from some random stranger on the internet and go all in (you degenerate). 5) The intraday target. The order of things matter. If we hit this before hitting the short entry then you might wanna reverse the idea but I do not like the idea of longing in an overextended market! What's on the daily chart? (Follow the steps) 1) The previous all time high that was violently broken. 2) Our swing extension target area. This is great to know where to take partials or close entire positions in new price territories. Of course price can always go further towards 2 or 2.618 or anything else (it's up to you where you wanna take partials). 3) The bearish candle pattern: kind-of a mix between a gravestone, a spinning top, a shooting star and whatever other label I can muster to justify my bias lol. To me this is the main driver of the bearish bias! 4) Maximum target. I do not see price going any lower and the intraday target is more sane so I don't really expect price to go that low either. 5) The continuation of the rally. People love buying. I do not see that changing anytime soon. As always, have a lovely day and happy trading! ;)
FX:NAS100Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
Nasdaq Crash Loading - The Black Swan The current state of the NASDAQ indicates an extreme overbought condition, with a rally influenced by speculation surrounding six potential rate cuts in 2024. However, the risk arises from the Federal Reserve's concern about inflation. If the Fed, in response to persistent inflation, opts to raise rates, it could lead to a market decline. Conversely, a decision to cut rates may not be sufficient to buoy the stock market if the number of cuts is lower than expected. Examining current fundamentals, the housing market has stabilized with low prices and mortgage rates. Although there is a rebound, a potential increase in housing speculation and mortgage rates could prompt a reassessment. Improved employee wages contribute to consumer confidence against inflation. President Joe Biden's initiatives, such as pausing student loan payments in November and plans to provide homes for 500,000 Americans, may stimulate housing demand, causing prices to rise. This could prompt a review of interest rates and a tightening of monetary policies. While I maintain a long-term bullish outlook, anticipating a correction of at least 50%, it is prudent to reevaluate macroeconomic indicators at that point to determine whether to take profits or continue holding.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by ttfx098_
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Friday 19 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. At time of analysis I noted the following: The early morning bulls had pushed up significantly. This means that my bias would definitely be bullish and that I would look exclusively for a buy. Exclusively bullish because market broke the purple downtrend line and also the previous all-time high level. I had a small runner open from yesterday’s position (runner = 10% of my original position size). I noted the weakness in the price action at C. and the 4H red doji candle close at 7am GMT, I thought market would retrace and maybe test the previous all-time high level (marked in green) before reaching to the top of the Day ascending triangle (at B.) Unfortunately I closed my runner at C. and waited for a nice re-entry. For my trading style, no re-entry signal was given….bulls just pushed straight up. There was a small double bottom on the 15min TF, but I did not feel confident enough to enter a buy based on this alone. Ideally I would have liked to keep my runner open to grab those extra 1000 pips. I closed my runner at about 2600 pips profit, which isn’t bad, but 3600 would have been better! Weekend starts now! Hope you caught the buy! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
NAS100 & SPX500 - WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY? (CONFLICTED)We are at a pivoting point in the markets, everything seems to be bullish and yet I have this bearish itch. Markets seem to be overpriced, notably the NQ. However the S&P500, has had a healthier correction and the continuation of its rally makes more sense. Since both markets are highly correlated, it would be absurd to short the NQ while the S&P500 looks so bullish. Why do I want to short the NQ? Technically it hasn't retraced as sanely as the S&P500 but that may be the nature of both markets. The NQ being more irrational (more speculative) than the rest, especially with the AI craze. So here's my two cents worth on the matter! What is on the charts? (follow the steps) 1) Highs that wicked many times in the daily bearish FVG. 2) Significant high that as I'm writing this has been taken out. 3) The retail sales session that took out lows and this is also what has me question the rally. If it is supposed to be bearish info why isn't price dropping? These are the reasons why I do not trade on certain days because I do not see clearly all the time. 4) Asian session lows, a great target for shorts. 5) A retest (or break of the daily FVG). I am not a breakout trader which is why I am not focusing on the bullish outcome because I couldn't tell you how to trade it optimally. 6) The bearish structure (that may never present itself). This all depends on the S&P500, for me to accept a short I need that double confirmation. So right now I accept everything as bullish unless shown otherwise. 7) Asian session lows taken out. 8) Finally the healthier correction that I'd want for the NQ to accept a more bullish approach. As always, happy trading everyone and have a lovely day! ;)
FX:NAS100
by Lexi_Is_Trading
NAS100 - MY INTRADAY ANALYSIS (TARGET 16630)Here I'm trying to change things up with a smaller timeframe (15min) analysis because the daily is nice but how does one trade that? Well here you have it. What is on the chart? 1) Yesterday's session low, aka sellside liquidity, that hasn't yet been taken out which gives us a juicy target for the day. 2) Yesterday's consolidation that gave the upper hand to bulls in the AM session but now it serves us for our bearish bias of the day. 3) Price wicking once more in the daily FVG and not taking out the high. Great news for bears. 4) Price retraced back into the reload zone (0.702 notably) and furthered its descent into bear territory. 5) Bearish 1 hour order block. Will be used partly for our entry coupled with the fibs. 6) London session lows that will also serve as a target. When there's an accumulation of targets it increases the probability of success when placing a trade aiming in that direction. 7) My ideal entry. To your own discretion, I can afford losing 1%, can you? (affording something isn't just monetary can also be psychological. Can you cope with losing your money once more because of the idea of a stranger on the internet?) 8) The outcome I'm looking for. If we're going for a bearish scenario this is what should (I want to) happen. NOTE: Retail Sales data release 08:30 NY time. Could make it or break it. Happy trading and have a nice day! ;)
FX:NAS100Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
2
NAS100 - MY BEARISH SCENARIO (TARGET 16500)What are we looking at? 1) An all-time-high (ATH) to end 2023 with fireworks and champagne. 2) A sneaky daily bearish FVG that we know is relevant thanks to step 5 and 7. 3) A retracement creating a range that ends on the notorious 0.618 fib level (weekly fib). 4) The continuation of the general trend, price pulls back into the range and creates a daily bullish FVG. It is indeed plausible that price does continue and forms a new ATH but for arguments sake, I prefer the probabilities a short gives me in a premium market with more liquidity to grab on the sellside. 5) Price halts in the bearish FVG mentioned in step 2 and prior to that created a 4H bullish FVG. 6) The CPI release had price wick into the 4H FVG and back into the consolidation we go! 7) Price wicking at multiple occasions in the daily bearish FVG which is to me a primary signal for a short setup despite all the bullish price action around it. Listen, if price breaks buyside aggressively, no short will be taken. We need price to break a low and then a short structure may present itself. 8) Here we have the potential break to the downside, taking out sellside liquidity. We can also call this a break-of-structure. 9) A pullback for a potential short entry and voilà. 10) 2 targets for partials. NFA and happy trading guys! ;)
FX:NAS100Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
Will Nadsaq start a deep correction?The year 2023 proved to be exceptional for PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 , witnessing a 70% increase in the index. However, the onset of 2024 brought about a correction in the index. Notably, the rise observed in December is confined within a rising wedge, suggesting a potential reversal. The index has indeed breached the rising trend line of the wedge, and the recent rebound serves as confirmation of this break. Also NAS100 appears to face challenges surpassing the 17k mark. Confirmation for a new downward move would occur with a break below 16500. In such a scenario, levels to monitor for bearish targets include 16200, 15700, and a significant 14500.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by Mihai_Iacob
10
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Friday 12 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) After yesterday’s volatility, I knew that today’s PPI would be important for investors. As the day progressed a double top formed on the 1H TF and a head and shoulders formed on the 4H TF, both sharing the same neckline. The pivot had been holding as strong support on a few occasions, but the bearish mood in the market/price action was tangible. Usually I am looking for a buy only, but after yesterday’s CPI I decided to go with what the candles were telling me. I took a sell at A. as price started breaking through the pivot point – Confirmations: - Market pattern – 4H head and shoulders, as well as 1H double top had formed and neckline was broken - Candlesticks: Bulls were failing to break through the resistance at the level indicated by the hand. Four failed attempts had been made. - Fib: Candles were failing to move higher roughly at the 0.618 1H fib level - Trend: There was a temporary downtrend line marked in green - S&R: The pivot point was starting to fail as a support. Took a small position as it was before the PPI and this news release could change market bias. Market moved about 520 pips from my position and I secured at entry. Ultimately price moved back up and I was out at entry. Price reversing at B. was due to this area being one of strong confluences: - Fib: 0.05 buy fib level (fib drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D.) - Price had travelled down exactly the same distance as the height of the market pattern - S&R: The 4H 20 EMA was at this level at the time and provided dynamic support. This is exactly why I always keep my bias the same as the overall trend because the biggest moves of the day come in the direction of the trend. The sell I took was 520 pips. The buy that came from B. was 1700 pips. Take profit from this buy would have been easy as it hit TP1, so I would have closed a portion of my position and left the rest running. Its frustrating because if I had kept my bias as a buy I definitely would have taken the buy at B. because I like being part of the retest of the neckline that is in the same direction of the overall trend (still bullish, even after yesterday's CPI). But it was a weird day today for me after CPI, market was choppy - so I guess not too bad if I come out with nothing and live to trade another day. Have a great weekend! What could I have done differently: Kept my bias as a buy. TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 10 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis around 5:20am GMT. At time of analysis, the following was noted: Buy fib was drawn early this morning from swing low at A to swing high at B1…and then later in the day to swing high at B2. Retracement levels written in purple for B2 fib. Fib levels were relatively close together with less than 600 pips separating the 0.383 and 0.618 levels. This means that one can usually go in with your full lot size because the potential draw down can be handled. Market was consolidating into a descending triangle market pattern on both the 1H TF and the 4H TF (with double tops inside). This market pattern usually breaks down. Bears indeed managed to break the neckline of the double top (shown with orange lines) and market moved down the same distance as the height of the pattern. Here, price found dynamic support from 1H 20 EMA and moved back up to test neckline of the 1H / 4H double top. I usually like to be part of the restest of the neckline which is in the same direction as the overall trend (bullish in this case). This morning however, I was expecting market to move down further but when I saw the reaction to the 1H EMA, I entered. I entered half my usual position size as a buy at C. (half because I was really expecting market to move down at least to pivot point). Confirmations: - Market Pattern: Bears had broken the neckline of the double top formed on the 1H & 4H TF. Price had travelled the profit target distance and was about to test the neckline of the market pattern in the same direction as the overall trend. Price was moving up and had closed above the neckline at C. on the 15min TF. Price had also broken back into the descending triangle indicating that the break out down was a fake out. - Fib: None – this is the reason I entered only half a position because the 0.382 retracement level was at the pivot point this morning so this little market pattern break out was a very shallow retracement. - Candle sticks & trend: The candle at C. on the 15min TF closed green forming a higher high after a series of lower highs indicating that the temporary down trend was possibly over (fully confirmed by the next green 15min candle which closed above the temporary orange down trend line). - S&R: 1H 20 EMA providing dynamic support Mental stop was placed at think pink line, because if price did not retrace by the 0.618 fib level and closed below the previous D neckline then a sell would ensue. I would have entered another half position of price moved down. Market moved up 750 pips from my position and I secured at entry. I knew a real fight between bears and bulls would take place at the purple down trend line. This line is draw on the wicks of the D candles from the D Double top. The move I wanted to secure today was the bulls breaking this trend line. So I didn’t take profit at peak B2. Price came down and took me out at entry. After judging price action just before & during market open I re-entered at D. I am now secured at entry and holding in case bulls break through the purple trend line. So I will be out at entry with nothing or if the bulls break through, I suspect there will be a big move up and KA-CHING!! Fingers crossed! Hope you had a good trading day too! What could I have done differently: So I was trying to adjust my stop loss of my C. position and all of a sudden my trade closed and also my swing trade from Sunday evening. My C. trade was close to entry anyway so I wasn’t too worried about that. But my swing trade closing by accident caused serious PANIC IN THE DISCO!!!!! I usually set my profit to show as pips in MT5 (it’s a strategy to help me deal with greed and fear). So the whole time I was seeing my swing trade profit in pips. When it suddenly closed, I saw the massive monetary profit in my equity and it totally threw me off! I was like “should I just keep the profit?? It’s so much money!”….”Maybe this happened for a reason”….”This wasn’t my plan at all but maybe now that I have the money banked I should just keep it”. Eventually, after I calmed down, I re-entered my "swing trade". So now my swing trade will be two trades that I will combine in my trading journal and view ultimately as one trade. It was never my plan to close that swing trade at that moment. I decided to stick to my plan and even if market draws down and I ultimately make a smaller profit from this swing trade, it’s more important that I stick to my plan and close my trades when I want to close them based on price action. So take a moment to think about what you will do if a trade closes by accident….having thought it through before the time will assist you in those critical moments when it happens to you. TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
NAS100 Bullish Scenario: The Only Long I See (Daily/1 Hour)Fundamentally, 2023 was a strong year for stocks notably tech, which has created a strong bullish anticipation for 2024. We are in the midst of a CPI release coming this Thursday on the 11th. It is obviously the most important data release of the year (since we're 9 days in lol). More seriously it is the factor that WILL determine the move to come (no shit). By default I am bullish for speculative and technical reasons so I propose a rational entry for a long position assuming the show will go on. Here is the technical reasoning: 1. Price wicked perfectly on the DAILY 'bullish' 0.618 fib level during the Friday 5th session. This serves as our first bullish signal. 2. Throughout the session an intermediary range was created with a high that will serve as our BOS ('break of structure') line. 3. Throughout that same session and the following session (Monday 6th) price bounced twice, precisely, on its fib 'reload zone' which is the area that ranges between 0.618 and 0.782 (0.702 is extremely effective). These zones tend to render good entries if it's line with the general outlook (fundamentals + daily/weekly trend + general analysis). This serves as our second bullish signal. 4. With our BOS (third bullish signal), an FVG ('fair value gap') was formed. I couldn't explain why it works but with back testing and live testing, it changed the game for me. This FVG serves as another entry point. Why this FVG and not the ones above? We want the one with the highest probability of success so we pair it with the 'reload zone'! 5. By tracing a trend-based fib, which honestly I just learnt how to use today, you'll notice how price reacted perfectly to the 1.702 fib. This is just a way to increase the legitimacy of my analysis and to seem like I know things. But it is a high that we'll use for our potential profit taking (spoiler!). 6. The trade: we have a confluence of factors which giveth the highest success probability (in my opinion) for an entry point (EP) IF we are backed by a strong data release. So EP:16430, MAX SL:16240 / MIN SL: 16330 (based on the low of the FVG) and TP1: 16675 (the high/fib 1.702) / TP2: 17000 (a nice round number which is a good target since it represents a strong psychological bias for all traders). This gives a good RR 1:3 so in the midst of the CPI release which could basically f*** everything up, I wouldn't risk more than 1%. For trade management put the SL in BE when price has taken TP1. Note: if the CPI is very bullish, just leave approx. 20% of the position to flow to new highs (TP3). NFA and happy trading! :)
FX:NAS100Long
by Fondera
US100 NASDAQ Technical Analysis and Trade Idea NAS100Sharp Retracement in NAS100: Opportunity on the Horizon? Eyes are laser-focused on the NAS100 after it slammed into a key resistance level. The current aggressive pullback sets the stage for an intriguing dynamic ahead of the NFP data drop later today. A strong dollar boost (or unexpected weakness) could significantly impact the index, making this data release a potential swing point. With such a sharp retracement already underway, I'm eyeing a potential long entry as the price plunges towards a crucial support zone. In the video, we dissected the trend, price action, market structure, and other technical essentials to build a comprehensive picture. Remember: This analysis is purely for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Do your own due diligence before making any trading decisions.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by fxtraderanthony
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Friday 5 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT Usually, I am looking exclusively for a buy because Nasdaq was bullish overall and trading with the trend is always a good idea. I believe this bearish pushdown is a big buy retracement on the D TF and not a trend reversal. During my analysis, I noted the following: Today was NFP. I usually don’t like trading during the day of a big news event. Often times markets are muted during the day with the true volatility coming with the news event. I entered a buy one minute before NFP came out – Confirmations: Market Pattern – Price had already travelled down the full distance equal to the height of the D double top. In theory, it is at this point that often market will reverse to test the neckline of the pattern. Fib: Price was just above the 0.618 fib level of the D TF (a very high and strong TF) S&R: 4H 200 EMA My NFP buy was at A. As NFP hit I was expecting a big reaction. However, market seemed quite unreactive. For 10min price was sliding down. I was very surprised and thought to myself that if NFP can’t turn this bearish retracement around, then price will fall a long way still. I have been taking small losses in the past few days, attempting to catch the correct reversal point. But these have been quite small losses and overall, I am not too sad about them because my risk management was pretty good. But in this moment, during the 10min after NFP, fear took over and I was not able to think straight. I didn’t want to take further unnecessary losses and I was fearful that market would slip down because even NFP couldn’t introduce bulls into the game. So, I closed at B. (right on the 0.618 D fib level). As I was writing this trade in my trade journal and I was documenting the reasons for entering the trade, I thought to myself that these are such strong confirmations and that I didn’t give my trade enough breathing room. I realized then I had been too quick to react (out of fear) and should have waited to see how the candles would react to the 0.618 fib level. So basically, keeping my trade journal highlighted to me that I had acted in fear and not rationally. I took a minute to think clearly what I wanted to do and knew I was prepared to put some money on the table for those strong confirmations, so I entered a buy at C. Overall, bulls pushed up from B. by 2400 pips – this could be the start of the bullish trend again, especially as we saw the day close with a green doji candle on the D TF. When I saw the weakness on the 15min TF after price had touched the 4H EMA, I closed half my position at D. I secured my remaining half position at entry and was hoping for market to continue pushing up to at least test the neckline of the double top on the D TF. But alas, we did not get there on Friday and candles spiked down to take me out at entry. But felt really good to make some pips (950 pips) for the day! Dealing effectively with emotions is one of the hardest parts of trading. Today, fear came into the game for me, but happy that my good habit of trade journaling helped me recognize this and that I still came out with some pips! What could I have done differently: Controlled my emotions better. Hope you had a good trading day! Catch ya on Monday! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Thursday 4 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT Usually, I am looking exclusively for a buy because Nasdaq was bullish overall and trading with the trend is always a good idea. Bears have totally dominated, with a push down of +- 7000 pips. I believe this is a big buy retracement on the D TF and am waiting for the reversal. During my analysis, I noted the following: A double bottom formed on the 1H TF (marked in purple lines). Market pushed up to break the neckline of the double bottom & temporary down trend line (marked in light blue). I entered a buy at A. – Confirmations: - Market Pattern: This was the 1st time that a double bottom formed on the 1H TF since the bearish retracement, indicating the growing strength of the buyers. Entered at break of the neckline - Fib: There was no buy fib level but there was some distance to travel to the 0.382 sell retracement (drawn at time I entered the buy and not as indicated on the chart now because swing low changed) so I felt there was enough distance for market to travel and secure my position at entry. - Candle sticks: Strong 1H momentum candle + first time we saw 2 green candles in a row close on the 4H TF, again indicating the growing strength of bulls. - S&R: Strong weekly and monthly support and resistance zone It was a risky entry because the pivot + 1H EMA were just above pushing down, so I entered 50% of my usual position size. Mental stop was place at thick pink line. 1H EMA proved too strong, and bulls were unable to break through. Took a 370 pip loss on this entry. Not sad about it because I feel it was a valid entry and worth putting some money on the table for. Bears push down further. Towards market open price was approaching the 4H 200 EMA (a very strong dynamic support zone) + the profit target of the D TF double top (marked by C. in bottom left corner – i.e., market will generally move the same distance as the height of the market pattern). When a double bottom formed on the 15min TF in this zone, I was very interested to enter a buy. However, just yesterday I said in my post “It’s ridiculous of me to think that its enough confirmation to enter a buy on a 15min TF (a very small TF). A 6000 pip bearish move will not come to a screaming halt on a 15min double bottom.” The difference now was that this pattern was forming in an area of confluence as opposed to just a random 15min double bottom anywhere in the charts. I chose to wait for the re-test of the neckline and entered a buy at B. as market was moving up again – Confirmations: - Market pattern: retest of broken neckline of a double bottom of the 15min chart - Fib: in the 0.50 fib zone on a D TF - Candlestick: inverted green hammer candlestick on the 1H (a potential bullish reversal signal) - S&R: in the zone of the 4H 200 EMA (a very strong EMA) - Trendline: none Mental stop was placed at thick pink line. I also placed a buy limit at the thick pink line as I really believed a bullish bounced would occur from this zone. Finally hit a nice buy with market moving up 1000 pips from my entry. Wanting to see a strong move up, I secured my position at entry and am trading risk free. What could I have done differently: I should have taken profit (closed a portion of my position at D.) D. represents the 5th time market tried to break this zone and on seeing weakness on the 15min TF, I should have secured some profit. Good luck if you are still trading! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 3 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT Usually, I am looking exclusively for a buy because Nasdaq was bullish overall and trading with the trend is always a good idea. But bears have totally dominated, with a push down of nearly 6000 pips. This could be a total trend reversal i.e. we move into a bear market. Or it could be a big retracement on the D TF (from swing low at A. to swing high at B.) Retracement levels marked with orange text. I believe it will ultimately be a retracement. A huge double top formed previously on the D TF (marked in pink). Market usually moves the same distance as the height of the pattern after the neckline is broken (marked by the pink vertical line). Yesterday we saw the D candle close below the neckline effectively breaking the neckline. So far today, the D EMA and D 0.382 retracement level has not been enough to stop the bears, and judging by the pink vertical line, market could still fall some way. I entered a small buy (10% of my usual position size) on a double bottom that formed on the 15min TM but closed soon after. What could I have done differently: It’s ridiculous of me to think that it's enough confirmation to enter a buy on a 15min TF (a very small TF). A 6000 pip bearish move will not come to a screaming halt on a 15min double bottom. There will be a double bottom or other market pattern formed on a much larger TF. Other than that, I just observed the market today. We are in a retracement zone….so not changing my bias to bearish until I can rule out a bull retracement. Learnt a lot from these past few days. My biggest lesson was the power and strength of double tops forming on multiple timeframes at the same time - as we saw today again (double top on 1H and 4H). If I had to enter a sell today, it would have been at C. (for an aggressive entry (0.618 sell fib level + respecting the 30 min EMA)) or at D. (break of the neckline of the double top). Good luck if you are still trading! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Tuesday 2 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT Usually, I am looking exclusively for a buy because Nasdaq was bullish overall and trading with the trend is always a good idea. But I was considering just observing the market today as there is a fully formed Double top on a high TF (4H) + two red D candle closes + Nasdaq all-time highs. Bears have just been waiting for the sell at all-time highs, but bulls have proven to be very strong over the last two months. As the morning progressed, two double tops were forming on the 1H and 30min TF. However, when a double bottom formed, I entered a small buy at A. – Confirmations: - Market Pattern: Double bottom on the 1H TF. I entered my buy on the break of the neckline on the 30min TF - Trend line: Break of the temporary down trend line (marked in blue) - Fib: Double bottom formed at D 0.382 retracement level - Candle sticks: Long wick candles on the 4H TF Entered a position which is 20% of my usual position size, as I knew this was a risky entry (all EMA's + pivot point above my buy pushing down). Set a tight mental stop loss, marked by the thick pink line. If candles started closing below this point then neckline of the 1H double bottom was broken and market would sell. Bears pushed down and I took a 250 pips loss. Entered a buy at B. – Confirmations: S&R: Strong D level support and resistance S&R: D 20 EMA was at this level Fib: Bigger picture 0.382 D fib level I knew there should at least be a bounce at this level and I entered a small buy. I secured at entry after the market was +-250 pips up from my position, so I was trading risk free. Ultimately, market moved 850pips up from my position. I was expecting a bigger move up to at least the 30min EMA but market turned around quite unexpectedly (for me at least) and I was out at entry. This is also the time of day that I am not in front of my trading screens and I was monitoring periodically on my phone. What could I have done differently: I could have jumped on the sell train, but generally I don’t like to flip flop between biases. I have lost a lot of money in doing that and trading with the overall trend has become part of my trading rules. This massive bearish move may be a bigger TF retracement or it may be a trend reversal. Let’s see what the market has in store for us today. Hope you caught the sell! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Friday 29 Dec 2023I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT Looking exclusively for a buy, as Nasdaq is bullish overall – “The trend is your friend” Even though we are at all-time highs, I keep my bias bullish. So had my buy position C. open from yesterday. Market moved up 380 pips from my position and I secured my trade once price was +-250 pips from my entry (this means I placed an actual stop loss at entry). As market moved down from 4. - I was out at entry. Bulls were unable to break the 1H double top (pink) neckline at 4. (yesterday there were 3 attempts) and today’s fourth and final failed attempt led to the bears stepping in resulting in a market drop. Although I wasn’t looking for a sell, the sell at E. makes sense because (confirmations for this sell): Market pattern: Double Top market in pink lines with a neckline tested 4 times Double top (marked in orange lines) formed just above the pivot point on the 1H TF. Market broke the neckline and re-tested the neckline (pivot point) at E. and on failing to break, bears dominated. Ascending wedge (marked by grey trend lines) formed on the D TF and broken bearish (at 2.&3.). Once officially broken, price usually moves the same distance as the height of the pattern. The market coming up to test the neckline of the 1H double top for the fourth time can also be seen as a retest of the ascending wedge. Falling wedge (marked with green lines) + head and shoulders (easily seen on the 4H line chart) - as the day progressed a strong head and shoulders formed on the 4H TF. The neckline was sloping down, which makes it a more bearish market pattern. Candle sticks: yesterday closed with a red D candle, warning of a possible retracement on a bigger timeframe. I entered a buy at D - confirmations: Market Pattern: This was the very limit, the tipping point, of a buy. If bulls were going to step in it would be to prevent the neckline of the 4H head and shoulders from breaking bearish. There was also going to be the re-test of the neckline of the orange Double top and I like being part of the re-test in the same direction as the overall trend, bullish in this case. S&R: 4H EMA providing some dynamic support Fib: This level represented yesterday’s 0.618 fib level – a strong fib level Candlesticks: A doji formed on the 1H TF This was a risky setup so I set a super tight mental stop loss, marked with the thick pink line. If candles broke this level Nasdaq would sell with momentum. Bears dominated and I took a 200 pip loss. I’m not sad about this, it was a calculated risk. Ultimately market dropped like a stone, crushing my hopes of a Santa Rally and taking out my other position that I tried to swing till 3 Jan 2024. I hope you caught the sell! It was a stunning ~2000 pip move and you would’ve ended the year with some nice profit. What could I have done differently: I’m happy with my risk management and how disciplined I was at securing my trades at entry. I would never have taken a sell because my bias was bullish, but we will see what happens in 2024! All the best for the new year! Hope all your (and my) trading dreams come true! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Thursday 28 Dec 2023I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT Looking exclusively for a buy, as Nasdaq is bullish overall – “The trend is your friend” Even though we are at all-time highs, I keep my bias bullish. At time of analysis, I noted the following: Early morning market had pushed up and by the time I was doing my analysis, price was consolidating in the blue circle. At 7am GMT, the 4H candle closed a red hanging man candle, warning of a potential bearish push. On the 1H TF, a double top market pattern started to develop. Neckline and potential move down (i.e. the same distance as the height of the pattern) if neckline was broken indicated with pink lines. My morning fib was drawn from swing low at D. to swing high at E. and retracement levels written in blue. I was cautious of a bearish pushdown and so entered half positions to see how price reacted. Also noted that fib levels were relatively close together meaning that potential draw down / loss would be manageable. Entered half a position buy at A. and then a few minutes later half a position at B. – Confirmations: S&R: 1H 20EMA dynamic support. On the 5min TF, a doji candle formed at this level indicating that perhaps the EMA would provide support. But 5min TF is not very strong and this was weak confirmation – hence half a position. Trendline: Market was near the bottom uptrend line of ascending wedge on the D TF. This trend line had been respected multiple times before. Fib: none (kinda close to 0.382 level so these positions represented my aggressive shallow retracement entries) Candle stick: there was a long wick green candlestick rejecting this level that formed on the 30min TF, that closed above the 1H neckline, indicating strength of buyers. Market pattern: Usually market moves the same distance down as the height of the double top. And I like being part of the re-test of the neckline that is in the same direction as the overall trend. Mental stop was placed below the 0.618 fib level where the 4H EMA would also have provided a bullish push up. If candles started closing past this point, then my buy would be invalidated. Ultimately, buyers were unable to break through the 1H double top neckline and bears stepped in to create a big retracement move. I entered a full buy position at C. – Confirmations: S&R: pivot point Trendline: Ascending wedge trendline had been broken bearish, so this could potentially be a breakout from the wedge and could lead to a massive bearish move. So extra risky here. But I had confidence that market would at least re-test this trendline. Fib: C. represented a level between the 0.50 and 0.618 fib level. This was my last position and I would not have entered again at the 0.618 level. I preferred to take a draw down if market continued to move down. What makes trading Nasdaq so hard is the extreme volatility and long candles spikes. We saw just yesterday how market only touched the pivot point and then flew up. Candle stick: Before I entered at C. there was a long wick candle that touched the pivot and closed above the 0.382 fib level, giving me confidence that buyers were rejecting this level. Market pattern: none So now I was in a risky position with 2 buy positions in a market that was temporarily bearish. I knew that I wanted to close my A. and B. positions as soon as market moved up so I set a take profit at entry for both. Going to sleep with 2 buy positions and a red day candle close was stressful. But luckily market has moved up the next day and my positions automatically closed at entry and now I am left with my C. position. In these types of situations you must control greed, because on the 1H TF where the red dots are marked, you can imagine that the 1H candle was fully green at a point in time (where it is now a spike) and you see the momentum with which the candle is moving, so thoughts come into your mind like “imagine market continues to move up and then I have 2 buys open – Cha CHING!!! Let me remove my automatic take profits”. But the bottom line is that it will take a big bullish push to break that neckline and market can easily turn down again (ascending wedge trendline was broken bearish after all). So one has to consider rationally how much risk you are willing to take and not act in greed. My C. position is now secured at entry and I’m hoping for a strong move up! Good luck if you are trading! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84