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US NAS 100

NAS100 - EMBARKING ON THE BIGGEST BULLRUN IN HISTORY? Hello Traders, what a week it has been! So I think it is justified to provide you with everything I know and show you how I see things. On the chart you’ll notice an image. The image shows theoretical price action with a parabolic curve step-like formation, representing an idealised pattern in price action trading. The formation begins with Base 1, where the stock starts to show an uptrend, followed by Base 2, indicating continued growth and increased investor interest. Base 3, marked by an "X", signals a critical entry point for traders, as it suggests potential for the stock to double in value rapidly. We are depicted to be at this third phase, which is considered the most opportune moment for entry before the final ascent. Base 4 represents the peak of the trend, culminating in a Sell Point where the stock reaches its maximum and sharply declines, thus completing the pattern. However, as we gear up for the CPI data release on the 13th of February, be aware that it might steer us into a broad consolidation phase. The market's parabolic trend may not be sustainable given the upcoming figures. Prudence is key here—anticipate potential stabilisation or sideways price action as the market digests the CPI results. Additionally, watch out for how price reacts to the BOS level. No structure is definite and it's important to adapt to what price is showing us and not to cling to an idea that no longer is valid. NAS100 Weekly NAS100 Daily To add to this NAS100 analysis, I think it’s important to discuss its main components. The "Magnificent Seven" Big Tech stocks, including Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon, have seen varied performance since the pandemic, challenging the notion of them as a homogenous group. The dispersion in their returns and diverse business models highlight the differences within the sector. While Nvidia thrives as an AI specialist and Apple boasts defensive qualities, Amazon combines retail with cloud computing. The sector's valuation spectrum reflects a mix of growth prospects and market expectations, suggesting a nuanced investment landscape rather than a uniform "bubble." This diversity raises questions about the future performance of growth versus value stocks within these leading tech companies. Apple's revenue grew during the holiday quarter, driven by iPhone sales and a record in services, despite a drop in China sales due to competition and geopolitical issues. The company faces regulatory scrutiny and a patent dispute, but remains optimistic about its product ecosystem and upcoming launches like the Vision Pro headset. Amazon's stock surged 7.9% following a report of strong holiday sales, boosting its market value by approximately $135bn. CEO Andy Jassy highlighted the company's future focus on AI, projecting AI revenues to reach "tens of billions," further driving optimism for its growth potential. Alphabet's shares dropped after advertising revenues missed expectations, despite integrating its Gemini AI into various services. The company plans significant investments in AI infrastructure, raising investor concerns about the balance between growth and expenditure in the generative AI race. Meta's shares soared over 20% after announcing a first-ever dividend and a $50bn increase in share buybacks, signalling recovery from a recent advertising slump. The company plans more investment in AI and the metaverse, despite expecting short-term AI products not to significantly drive 2024 revenue. Full-year expenses are projected to rise notably. Nvidia's dominance in the AI chip market, essential for technologies like OpenAi's ChatGPT, has driven its significant growth, with the stock more than doubling in value over the past year. This surge contrasts with the broader semiconductor industry's struggles with excess inventory and reduced demand in other sectors. Nvidia's success is partly due to partnerships with major tech firms like Microsoft and Meta, with the latter planning to acquire almost 600,000 high-end Nvidia GPUs for AI research. This focused investment in AI has positioned Nvidia at the forefront of the data centre market, overshadowing traditional leaders like Intel. Microsoft's shares fluctuate after announcing strong cloud sales integrated with OpenAI's tech, but ended lower due to concerns over high investments in AI infrastructure. Despite a 20% increase in cloud revenues, investors remain cautious about the costs associated with expanding AI capabilities. Tesla's shares dropped 12% amid warnings of lower sales growth due to reduced demand and increased competition. CEO Elon Musk announced a new lower-cost car for 2025, aiming to regain momentum. Tesla faces challenges from price cuts, higher costs, and a shift in the EV market, impacting its financial performance. Here’s some economic theory for you, to add some more depth to the analysis. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly changes in the federal funds rate, has a significant impact on bond yields and, subsequently, stock prices. When the Fed raises interest rates to combat inflation or cool down an overheating economy, bond yields tend to rise as well. Higher bond yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, which can lead to a decline in stock prices as investors may shift away from equities. Conversely, when the Fed lowers interest rates to stimulate economic growth, bond yields often decrease, making stocks more appealing, which can boost stock prices. So, Fed rate decisions play a crucial role in influencing the relationship between bond yields and stock prices. In economic theory, bond yields and stock prices exhibit a negative correlation. This is why yield charts matter. Have a look: The general outlook is that the US Federal Reserve is cautious about cutting rates despite inflation slowing, due to concerns about potential economic growth and inflation resurgence. Market expectations of rate cuts exceed the Fed's projections, but with inflation drivers easing, the case for reducing rates is growing stronger. However, the US job market added 353,000 jobs in January, surpassing the expected 180,000, leading to reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in March. The strong job growth supports the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, despite political pressures. In my opinion, if the US economy continues to show such resilience and the next CPI release is lower than consensus, we might be witnessing the beginning of the largest bull run in history. In summary, the NAS100's trajectory is at a crossroads with the upcoming CPI data potentially triggering market consolidation, despite the recent parabolic pattern. The diverse performance among Big Tech stocks underscores the need for nuanced analysis. While Federal Reserve policies continue to sway bond yields and stock prices, the strong job market suggests caution in anticipating rate cuts. Keep a close eye on how the NAS100 responds to the interplay of inflation data and tech sector dynamics. Overall, maintain a strategic approach and be ready to adjust to new information as we navigate these complex market conditions. Stay informed, stay agile. As always, I hope you enjoyed this one and have a great weekend!! ;)
FX:NAS100Long
by Lexi_Is_Trading
Next expected volatility period: around February 19thHello traders! If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly. Please also click “Boost”. Have a good day. ------------------------------------- (NAS100USD 1M chart) The NAS100USD chart is updating the new high (ATH). Accordingly, it can be seen that we are in a position where there is no surprise if it falls at any time. However, unless it falls below 16579.4, it is expected to touch the Fibonacci ratio range of 2.0 (left) - 1.0 (right). The section that is likely to turn into a downward trend is 14880.8-15090.3. Therefore, if it falls below 16579.4, I think an important key is whether it will be supported around 14880.8-15090.3. (1D chart) Unless there are major issues, the next period of volatility is expected to be around February 19th. At this time, it is necessary to check whether it falls below the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.618 (left) - 0.618 (right), or rises above 0.707 (right). Currently, it is expected that the reported price (ATH) will be updated. Have a good time. thank you -------------------------------------------------- - The big picture The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K. This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K. #BTCUSD 12M 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting) 4th: 13401.28 151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future. We need to see if we can break through these points upward. Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting area, you should check the movement when this area is touched. If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern. 1st: 43833.05 2nd: 32992.55 -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA. How to display (in order from darkest to darkest) More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA ** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own. ** This chart was created using my know-how. ---------------------------------
OANDA:NAS100USD
by readCrypto
NAS100USD Is Bullish! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for NAS100USD. Time Frame: 6h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 17234.0. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 17498.4. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by SignalProvider
8
NAS100 - MONDAY'S SMALL SHORT FOR BIG LONG! (TARGET 17265)As you might have noticed, the Nasdaq is on fire and I'm more of a reversal trader so times are harder. But, there is an old saying that states: "the trend is your ". I forgot the rest but I'll let you figure out the last word. So in homage of this old saying, we'll tighten our bullish running shoes and propose a setup that satisfies both camps. Here's what I see happening on Monday (29/01/2024): What is on the chart? (follow the steps) 1) We have our liquidity target level which gave place to the continuation of the rally. So far so good for bulls, price is going up and their net worths too. 2) Our first reversal structure, with a low taken out and the high intact. 3) This is our retracement signal, confirming the market structure shift to the downside. This is paired with the fact that price broke the hourly Tenkan and Kijun + the Tenkan and the Kijun crossed over + breaking the Kumo + breaking the latest low. Additionally, the 4H Kijun and Tenkan reside within the 1H Kumo so those too were broken (not shown on the chart to promote clarity). These are reliable reversal signals. I am not trying to be a contrarian against the general trend but, this is how we spot general highs and lows. The daily is simply bullish so it's harder to spot a minor intraday opportunity such as this one. 4) This rejection confirms our reversal idea, and strengthens the probability of sellside liquidity getting taken out. 5) This is our final target, ideally the 1 Hour FVG. Again, on Monday anything can happen of course but this seems the most likely. I want these lows taken out before anything and, therefore we can short in anticipation of these lows getting taken out! Most importantly, take some rest and have a great weekend! ;)
FX:NAS100Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
2
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Monday 29 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. My feeling about today’s price action was that price would just consolidate as we all wait for this action packed week to kick off. No amount of technical analysis will help – bears or bulls will step in depending on the earnings + guidance provided this week and FOMC. My ideal plan would be to get a buy in as low as possible and then hopefully market would start pushing up in anticipation for the earnings on Tuesday. Then I would just hold as I expect earnings + guidance to be good and a further rally to ensue. At time of analysis I noted the following: Formation of a consolidation triangle (marked with turquoise lines) Double top had formed on 1H TF (marked at yellow dot with purple lines), reached profit target (at B.) and now coming back to test neckline Bears stepped in previously at A. (as seen by the red candles at A. on the 1H TF) but support of pivot point and 30min + 4H EMA was holding strong. Turquoise uptrend line confirmed with 3rd touch and close above at B. therefore validating this uptrend line. Green doji candle close on 1H TF at C. I entered a buy at D. – confirmations: S&R – price respecting 30min EMA well (when market is very bullish then this EMA is respected). When price started closing above the 1H EMA and 4H EMA, I knew that these EMA’s would not act as resistance. Candlesticks – 1H green doji right on pivot point Fib – none Trendline – Turquoise uptrend line respected It was an aggressive entry as 1H neckline still had not been broken through, but I felt that if market was going to drop from the neckline, then it would have done so at A. already. Due to aggressive nature of this entry, I entered only 20% of my usual position size. Mental stop was placed at thick pink line. Market moved up, I secured at entry but bulls could not break through the 4H neckline at E. on this attempt. Unfortunately, market came back down to take me out at entry. I decided to stay out as market was choppy. Unfortunately, price eventually took off without me. So I missed out on the move that I was anticipating and hoping for. But Nasdaq is never short of entry opportunities, and I live to trade another day. Hope you caught the buy! What could I have done differently: I should have set a buy limit at B. the night before, because price had not travelled the full distance as the height of the market pattern at the yellow dot. This would have been such a great level to enter and hold for earnings! Next time ;) TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
NAS100 | The continued rip and runNAS100 has been on a beautiful tear to the upside. The question is can it still continue? If so, the best price to continue buying above is 17,300.80. Why this price? This is where the buyers push price back up before continuing the increase of price up to 17,687.20. Price has now pulled back to provide a discount in price once again. For this discount to remain valid buying above 17,300.80 is sensible. What needs to be seen? The evidence buyers can come show themselves, basically, price action candlesticks. We can see price pushed off of structure(green line) before increasing. Now price is back at structure. Again, we will need to see if the buyers can push price back up. And again, price action is going to be the evidence or entering the trade upon open with the belief price can rise. As Van Tharp states in his book Trading Beyond The Matrix , " we don't trade the markets we trade our beliefs." My belief is price can rise if price doesn't strongly fall below the lower price of 17,300.80. If it does, this trade idea will be invalidated. Should you trade this? If you share the belief price will rise? Yes. If you do not believe price will continue to rise? no. Let's keep it that simple. Like and share this trade idea ❤️ Shaquan
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by ShaquanLopez
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Friday 26 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) I'm reading a trade phycology book called the "Mental Game of Trading" by Jared Tendler. In it he explains that each trader has a C-game (where all your worst mistakes are made), a B-game (where you are a little bit profitable but are still making some mistakes) and an A-game (where you are really performing well). Today, I was making every single mistake in my C-game. Trading against the trend, cutting trades too soon, flip-flopping from a sell to a buy and chasing price. Don't know what the hell happened, that I suddenly made all these mistakes. But I am out for the day (at a loss, of course). Not trading when I am clearly in my C-game mentality! Disaster ;( But despite my horrible trading day....January has been my most profitable trading month ever. Bad days happen - one bad trading day does not make you a bad trader (don't let it get you down - just learn from it). Hope you are having a better day....good luck!
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Thursday 25 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. Looking exclusively for a buy – “The trend is your friend” Tesla earnings came in below expectations and Tesla execs advised of lower growth for 2024. Not good. Risk for the day was that Nasdaq might take a dip based on Tesla Earnings release. But what makes trading in ”earnings week/s” hard is that you never how what investors will be sensitive to. At time of analysis I noted the following: A double bottom had formed on the 1H TF (marked by black lines). Market was tracking a temporary uptrend line (marked in purple). 1H and 30min EMA + pivot point was above the candles (so bulls would need some strength to break through and would they have it after Tesla earnings?) Long wick candles had formed on the 1H TF rejecting the 0.50 buy fib level (fib drawn from swing low at B. to swing high at D.) A massive head and shoulders pattern had formed on the 1H TF (indicated by the pink lines) The neckline of this pink pattern was just above the 1H EMA, so a big chance for bears to step in and cause a big push down. I entered a buy at A. (at 60% of my usual position size) – Confirmations: Fib – candles rejecting the 0.50 buy fib level Candlesticks – long wick candles on the 1H TF Market pattern – break of the neckline of the double bottom on the 1H TF Trendline – market respecting the purple uptrend line An aggressive entry, especially based on what bulls had to break through after negative Telsa news. Mental stop loss placed by the thick pink line – if candles started breaking below 0.50 fib level then buy is invalidated. Bears fought hard at the neckline of the 1H head and shoulders, you can see the two red candles after A. Eventually bulls came out victorious and market pushed up. On New York open, market pushed down heavily to retest the pivot point and seems now (at time of writing) to be moving up. I closed 50% of my position when I noted that market open might push down hard. It can often be the case that New York has a totally different sentiment to the earlier traders and I was sensitive again to the bad Tesla earnings. Luckily I still have quite a significant runner open and will judge by price action on when to take profit – but rough plan is to maybe take profit once more today and consider leaving a runner for next week’s (hopefully) good earnings from some of the Magnificent Seven stocks. What could I have done differently: Sounds all good and easy on paper…but the reality is that I chickened out at E. and closed my full position. I re-entered again at about A. when I saw bulls regaining strength. I was super scared that bears would dominate, as the potential move down (the same distance as the height of the pattern) could have been to C. One of my development goals currently is learning to stick to my trade plan. Market was not at my stop loss and I acted out of fear. These small losses eat away unnecessarily at profit. Hope you navigated the market well today…it was a tough one! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 24 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. Looking exclusively for a buy – “The trend is your friend” Netflix earnings came in showing good forecasts Risk for the day was that there may be hesitancy for traders to step into the market, as we wait for Tesla to report. At time of analysis I noted the following: Temporary pink downtrend line had been broken and retested at A. (also retest of pivot). Candles showing strong bull presence in the market (green momentum candles on 1H and 4H candles are all green). Rising wedge formation noted and marked in green lines 1H 20 EMA is tracking the dark blue trend line almost perfectly If market retraces, I would enter a buy with my full position size. Watching price action, I entered a buy at C. (at 20% of my usual position size). Confirmations: Market Pattern – Rising wedge formation formed on the 1H TF. Usually this pattern breaks to the downside but can break either way. Market broke to the upside this time. News – Netflix earning release + forecast were really good This was an aggressive entry – lack of strong confirmations. I usually don’t like buying at the peak, hence my small position size. But market sentiment was extremely bullish. Market pushed up, broke through the top line of the Day ascending wedge (marked in light blue), retested at E. and took off from there. Ultimately market moved up 1800 pips from my position. Logically I would have liked to close half my position size at the peak and leave the rest running in case Tesla earnings came out well and market moved further up. However, candles did not give a clear reversal pattern on the lower TF and by the time it did, the monetary value was not significant enough for me to actually take profit. I decided that because it was such an aggressive entry, that I might as well be aggressive and keep the whole position open and see what Tesla earnings does. Unfortunately for me, market came crashing down and I was out at entry with ZERO pips for the day. What could I have done differently: At the time market reversed, I was no longer in front of my trading screens and was monitoring on my phone. My ability to judge and “feel” a shift in sentiment from the price action is significantly reduced. I think that if I was in front of my screens I would have taken partial profits, but we can’t be in front of the screens 24/7. Ultimately, I will never regret a situation where I decide to be aggressive and then am out at entry. If Telsa had come out differently I would have been smiling all the way to the bank, so, happy to have taken that “go big or go home” risk. Hope you made some good bucks out of this move! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
NAS100 - MY DAILY AND INTRADAY ANALYSES (TARGET 17300)Yes this is contrarian, markets are booming but it's quite overextended and going long at a top is the most monkey trader thing to do. I'll do a reverse analysis where I start with the intraday and follow up with the daily. So here's my take on things: What's on the intraday chart? (Follow the steps) 1) A 4 hour bearish FVG. This will serve as my entry zone. 2) Our 'support line'. You'll notice price keeps on making lower lows. 3) Our liquidity target. This is the price magnet. We know for certain (discretionary) that price will take this out. 4) The entry point. Again, do your own research. Do not follow the analysis from some random stranger on the internet and go all in (you degenerate). 5) The intraday target. The order of things matter. If we hit this before hitting the short entry then you might wanna reverse the idea but I do not like the idea of longing in an overextended market! What's on the daily chart? (Follow the steps) 1) The previous all time high that was violently broken. 2) Our swing extension target area. This is great to know where to take partials or close entire positions in new price territories. Of course price can always go further towards 2 or 2.618 or anything else (it's up to you where you wanna take partials). 3) The bearish candle pattern: kind-of a mix between a gravestone, a spinning top, a shooting star and whatever other label I can muster to justify my bias lol. To me this is the main driver of the bearish bias! 4) Maximum target. I do not see price going any lower and the intraday target is more sane so I don't really expect price to go that low either. 5) The continuation of the rally. People love buying. I do not see that changing anytime soon. As always, have a lovely day and happy trading! ;)
FX:NAS100Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Tuesday 23 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. At time of analysis I noted the following: I still had some buy positions running from yesterday. Noted that the early morning bulls had pushed up and were respecting the orange uptrend line. Unfortunately, bulls could not break through the pivot point and a double top formed close to C. on the 1H TF. When a doji candle closed at C. (bulls again not able to break through pivot point, which was also the 0.382 Fib sell retracement level (fib drawn from swing high at A. to swing low at B.)) – I knew market would sell and I closed all my buys from yesterday at a small loss. In my trading style, I would only want to trade with the trend (the trend is your friend). I felt like Nasdaq would not buy any further today until we have earnings forecasts on the table which justify a further rally. That would not come during the trading day today, because we are all waiting for Netflix tonight and Tesla tomorrow. Until there is a bigger TF confirmation of a sell, I am not interested in taking intraday sells on such a strong bull trend. My view was that market would consolidate and be choppy today. Judging by the price action, I feel it was. I did not enter again today but I do have a buy limit at E. because this is an area of confluence: Market pattern – At this level price would have moved down the same distance as the height of the 4H Head & Shoulders and would most probably retest the neckline. I like being part of a re-test that is in the same direction as the overall trend. S&R: 4H EMA is in this region Fib: this area is close to the 0.618 buy fib level and also in the proximity of the sellers TP2. What could I have done differently: Glad I stayed out today. Hope you managed to squeeze out some pips! Although not for me personally, the sell from D. was nice – 0.618 sell fib + 4H neckline + 1H & 4H market pattern (timeframe confluence). TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Crash Loading - The Black Swan The current state of the NASDAQ indicates an extreme overbought condition, with a rally influenced by speculation surrounding six potential rate cuts in 2024. However, the risk arises from the Federal Reserve's concern about inflation. If the Fed, in response to persistent inflation, opts to raise rates, it could lead to a market decline. Conversely, a decision to cut rates may not be sufficient to buoy the stock market if the number of cuts is lower than expected. Examining current fundamentals, the housing market has stabilized with low prices and mortgage rates. Although there is a rebound, a potential increase in housing speculation and mortgage rates could prompt a reassessment. Improved employee wages contribute to consumer confidence against inflation. President Joe Biden's initiatives, such as pausing student loan payments in November and plans to provide homes for 500,000 Americans, may stimulate housing demand, causing prices to rise. This could prompt a review of interest rates and a tightening of monetary policies. While I maintain a long-term bullish outlook, anticipating a correction of at least 50%, it is prudent to reevaluate macroeconomic indicators at that point to determine whether to take profits or continue holding.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by ttfx098_
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Monday 22 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. At time of analysis I noted the following: Early morning bulls had push up even further. Bullish trend is clear and I will be looking exclusively for a buy – “The trend is your friend” However, on pulling the fib (drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B1.) on the 4H TF and noting the pivot point – I note that the retracement levels are far down from were price currently is. In this instance one must be careful because even a shallow retracement can be more than 1000 pips down and the pivot point is +- 2000 pips down. So if you are like me and only put your daily trading budget into your account, one can easily bust your account by going in too early with a buy and then market retraces further. Also, bulls pushed straight up on Friday with zero retracement, so the chance for a retracement today is high. As the morning progressed, a small double top formed on the 1H TF. Neckline broke and price moved down. The purple support line held seven long wick candles from breaking down (candle 1. and 7. are indicated). So even though sellers were pushing down hard, buyers held the support strong. I entered a small buy at C. (20% of my usual position size) – Confirmations: Candles sticks – long wick candles on the 1H TF indicating sellers were unable to push down S&R – Support zone holding strong Market pushed up 434 pips and as it came down again I closed half of that position at a small loss. I limited my risk because I noted that market had touched the top trend line of the D ascending wedge and then moved bearish from there. I wanted to protect my margin as a bigger retracement might take place and I would rather get in lower. So now I had 10% of my usual position open. I don’t regret this entry and still think it was a valid entry. My plan was to open another small position at the 1H 20 EMA at E. (depending on the 5min price action in this zone and then another bigger % buy position at the 4H 0.382 retracement level (to me this is an area of confluence because there is an uptrend intersecting with this zone). When market opened at 2:30pm GMT, price touched the top trend line at B2, but still closed in the green. I entered another 20% buy as this candle closed (at D.) at 3pm GMT. This was a hasty entry and one that I regret. I only entered because the 4H candle closed green and I felt like the purple support zone was holding strong on the 4H TF. I didnt think about a possible double top forming on the 4H (how silly am I). But I should have stuck with my original plan because market came down almost immediately and a double top formed on the 4H. As market came down, I realized my mistake and closed half of my position at D. to limit my loss in case of a bigger retracement. So I had a small position at C. and at D. still open. I entered as planned another small buy at E. But market didn’t really move much. I suspect investors are waiting for Netflix earnings tomorrow. So I am now in a predicament. The day is nearly done and I have 3 small buy positions open. If I look at how the candles are reacting to the 1H and 30 min EMAs, I don’t like what I see. But there are long wick candles and a strong previous bulls reaction near the 0.382 retracement level. Do I close and take my losses for the day? Or chance it and swing it till tomorrow? It just feels wrong to close a buy on such a strong bull run…but then again, everyone is watching earnings with bated breath to see if the Nadaq highs are validated. What could I have done differently: Not entered at D. But overall, even though the sell was the best move for the day, I don't regret my trading plan for today. I would not have entered a sell on such a bullish trend. Maturity is starting to show in my risk management and my choice of position size in these more aggressive entries. At least I kept it small! Hope you had a great trading day and squeezed out some pips! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84