Nasdaq trading insights: 26-May-2025Nasdaq trading insights: Not signals, but informative zones to aid your decision-making. Please note: These zones are not trading advice. Use them as a starting point for your own analysis.
Nasdaq
2025.05.25 nasdaq weekend analysis📊 Friday Market Recap & Analysis
As previously mentioned, the trend had shifted downward, and I advised against taking long positions—short bias only.
Although the uptrend line was broken twice, one break was a fakeout and the price pulled back up.
Eventually, the red box support zone was broken, and the target was hit with a max drop of $363, resulting in a profit of around $7,260 per contract.
A rebound occurred as the US market opened, but a short-term trendline break at the close suggests Monday's market may lean downward—unless strong positive news emerges over the weekend.
🕰 Weekly Chart View (NASDAQ)
The weekly candle closed just slightly above the previous high, but not significantly—likely meaningless.
The 20-week MA is currently at 20,272.
If the NASDAQ breaks the recent low, there’s a high chance it could drop down to the 20-week MA + top of the Ichimoku Cloud.
📅 Daily Chart View (NASDAQ)
Buying pressure hasn’t fully disappeared yet—NASDAQ is still sitting above the 20-day MA, meaning the trend could revive.
However, if the 20-day MA (around 20,647) is broken, the price may fall into the orange box supply zone.
Historically, we’ve seen a box range movement between 20,400–19,300, so a break of the 20-day MA could lead to a repeat.
For long re-entry, the purple box zone (19,300–18,980) is a strong support area to watch.
✅ Conclusion
・Unless major news comes out over the weekend, Monday’s market will likely retest the 20-day MA.
・If that level breaks, the next drop could be around $1,000, which is significant.
・As always—wait patiently and take the trade when the market gives it to you.
Nasdaq and Indexes Week 22 BiasWhile the Indexes maitain a Bullish perspective on Weekly right now, I would not dare to anticipate next week "Flavour" but rather wait for The New Week Opening and if necessary till FOMC Minutes on Wednesday.
I would like to see immediate rejection from where price it's right now (allowing it to reach the IFVG starting at 20,690.00) to maintain a bullish bias rather then a deeper retrace, otherwise Bias may change on a Daily basis and pause that Weekly View for a later time .
#202521 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq futuresGood Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Not as bearish as I am on dax but I think market should not go above 21200 again and continue down. For that to happen, bears need to leave a strong bear gap somewhere. Gap down on Monday or Tuesday will likely do the trick. If the bull trend line holds and the current bear trend line breaks, There is the small possibility of another leg up but for now I can’t see that happening.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels for next week: 19000 - 21000
bull case: Bulls need to stop the selling and reverse to above 21000 fast or bears will push this much lower. If they manage to stay around 21000, more bears could doubt the strength of this selling but it’s a weak argument as of now. If bulls go only sideways around 21000 and close Monday above it, that would change a lot to the better for them. They have support from the daily 20ema until clearly broken.
Invalidation is below 20600.
bear case: Bears see a clear topping pattern with at least 3 decent tries of going above 21350 and now we have the strong selling on Friday with a total escalation of the trade war with the EU. Bears were given a gift and they need follow-through and leave a big gap that has to stay open, like the bulls did with the 3 current open gaps. Targets for the bears in order are the breakout retest 20277, 20000 and then the prior support around 19300/19400 which is around the 50% retracement.
Invalidation is above 21200.
short term: Neutral until we clearly have follow-through selling by the bears. I want to lean max bearish but need more confirmation.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-05-24: Will update this section more after the coming week but in general the thesis is as for dax. Down over the summer and sideways to up into year end. I don’t think the lows for this year are in.
Stock Markets, Gold, Silver: Run With The Bulls!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of May 25 - 31st.
The Stock Markets are bullish, so run with valid buy setups when they form.
Gold and Silver are relatively strong. With tensions in Gaza and Iran, this is expected. Valid buys should be taken.
Crude Oil is a tad bearish due to US inventories, so valid sells are warranted in the short term.
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Intel Breakdown Alert! Bearish Setup with High R:R Opportunity !📉 Intel Corporation (INTC) – Bearish Setup Analysis
Timeframe: 4H | Ticker: NASDAQ:INTC | Exchange: NASDAQ
🔍 Technical Breakdown
We are currently observing a potential bearish reversal on Intel Corp. following a clear breakdown from a rising parallel channel on the 4H chart.
🟦 Pattern Observed
Price was previously moving within a rising channel, forming higher highs and higher lows – a typical short-term bullish structure.
Recently, price broke down below the lower boundary of this channel, signaling a potential shift in momentum from bullish to bearish.
📌 Trade Setup
Entry Zone: Between $20.22 – $20.06
Price is currently trading in this zone, presenting a potential short entry opportunity following the channel breakdown.
Stop Loss: $21.77
Placed above the previous resistance zone and the broken channel. If the price reclaims this level, the bearish thesis is invalidated.
Final Target: $17.70
This level represents a key support zone from previous price action and aligns with potential measured move from the channel breakdown.
✅ Why This Setup?
Channel Breakdown
A break below a well-defined channel often marks a change in trend. This gives a high-probability setup for trend reversal traders.
Bearish Momentum Confirmation
After the breakdown, price failed to reclaim the channel, and is now trading below the prior support, flipping it into resistance.
Risk/Reward Ratio
This setup offers an excellent R:R ratio, with downside potential toward $17.70 and a relatively tight stop just above the failed structure.
Market Structure Alignment
Lower highs and lower lows now appear to be forming post-breakdown, further confirming a potential bearish move ahead.
📉 Bias: Short
📈 Invalidation: Break and close above $21.77
🎯 Target: $17.70
🧠 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk accordingly. Trade safe!
Electronic Arts: Heading LowerElectronic Arts has dropped roughly 13% since our last update, continuing the expected decline within ongoing wave (3). This move is likely to break below support at $114.60 and gradually push the stock downward to the anticipated low. Our alternative scenario suggests the correction may already be done, but that path hinges on a convincing move above $169.82 — a threshold we’re not close to yet. For now, the downtrend remains in control.
📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
$QQQ to $538 then one more leg down?Despite the bearish move in QQQ today, I still think there's another move higher.
I think it's likely that we go and retest the ATHs at $538 (so another 5% or so up) and then we find resistance there and start one last move down to $318-$383.
Only after we see another leg down, do we see new highs. Marked off support levels to the downside.
Invalidation of the idea would be flipping $538 as support.
NASDAQ - Target Zone - Break of channel - ShortNASDAQ - Target Zone - Break of channel - Short
We can have a rebound phase with new short phase
target area 19000
205.05.23 nasdaq analysis
📊 Result of Yesterday’s Trading Strategy
The break of the upward support trendline triggered a sharp drop, delivering solid profits even before the U.S. session opened.
With 1 contract, this setup yielded approximately $2,000 profit, making for an early finish to the day.
📉 Current NASDAQ Situation
The Nasdaq is on the verge of breaking below the ascending trendline.
Even though it pretends to rise, it consistently gets pushed down — suggesting the bullish momentum is close to being exhausted.
Thus, I will not consider long positions today and will continue to approach the market conservatively.
Today's trading strategy:
If 21112 is broken downward, it will likely enter a corrective phase.
If that happens, I plan to continue shorting with targets down to 20827~20667.
🎯 The target range is wide because if a sharp drop does occur, the strength behind it may lead to a deeper correction, making it worth holding for the extended target.
✅ Conclusion
• It's better to focus on short strategies rather than long positions for now.
• To enjoy the weekend, taking the day off from trading might also be a smart move today.
2025-05-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears get nothing going. Everything is bought. This notion slightly changed today. We saw an increase in selling pressure and market made a decent lower high but problem for the bears is, the bull trend line held and so far we have only seen big tails below 21100. We have formed a triangle and we could see a bigger trend day tomorrow. Until the trend line breaks, I don’t think bigger shorts make sense.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21000 - 22000
bull case: Bulls defended the trend line and if bears step aside enough, we could do a new ath over the next 2 weeks. For now they are buying the dips but are too weak to push for new highs. Still most arguments are on their side as long as we are in this clear channel.
Invalidation is below 20800.
bear case: Bears need a weekly close below 20800. What are the odds of that happening? Meh. Betting on a trend line break is almost never a good strategy. It needs to happen and you have to follow. So if bears can get a strong move and consecutive 1h bars below 20900, it would increase the odds greatly of more downside. Bears still have many problems given the daily chart. The gap down is to 20300 and the daily 20ema is around 20600. So even if we break the trend line, I doubt bears will just melt through the daily ema after such a squeeze.
Invalidation is above 21600.
short term: Neutral. For now I expect more chop until one side clearly gives up again and if I had to guess, bears are more likely to step aside since we have big obvious targets above and the trend line is still valid.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year.
trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. 21400 - 21460 was the main range and both sides made money today. Only real bad trade was shorting below 21400 or buying the Globex high.
S&P 500: Consolidating & forming bull flag on support trendlineSo, we all know that the market is taking a breather, and the past week has been mostly flat (kind of). There have been plenty of headlines, some good, some bad. Most notably, the news about the Moody's US credit downgrade. I woke up one morning, took a look at LinkedIn and saw all the CFA-certified investing experts expecting a massive game-changing moment, potentially a market crash.
Except, the market hasn't responded so negatively. In fact, I'd say that while long-term yields have been rising, the market has been doing its own thing .
For instance, taking a look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 paints a different picture of the doom and gloom that I've been hearing ALL weekend and ALL week long. As you can see, the index is currently sitting on the daily support trendline which goes back to the 7th April low.
On that trendline, taking a closer look, it seems the flat price action has been forming a bull flag. It's quite narrow and tight. But it certainly is a fine-looking bull flag. And a break above that would take the S&P 500 even higher.
This would also likely have a positive effect on other indices. Furthermore, it might be worth keeping an eye on the big S&P 500 stocks that are high-beta and like to follow the market.
So, to my point about how the market has been doing its own thing...seems that the Moody's downgrade could have possibly been already priced-in. I could be wrong, of course, as markets are still quite volatile and fragile to any sort of macro and global developments about trade and conflicts around the world.
Thank you for reading.
Note: not financial advice
US30/Dow Jones Trade IdeaThis is what I believe could be cooking up currently on US30... A possible buyers control might be coming up the coming days as it looks like price is possibly heading for HTF FVG.
Remember this is just a trade idea and nothing is completely guaranteed to play out the way I'm anticipating... Following this trade idea will be on your own risk!
#us30 #dowjones #indices #nasdaq #german30 #dax
US100 Tests Uptrend: Bearish Signals Emerge❗️ US100 Bearish Alert ❗️
Technical Breakdown Incoming?
📉 The NASDAQ 100 has hit a new local low and is now testing the uptrend line.
🔴 A bearish block order has formed.
📉 RSI signals clear bearish divergence.
📉 MACD confirms momentum is fading for bulls.
🧲 A gap below is acting like a magnet for price action!
🚨 Trade Idea:
🔽 Sell US100 only on a confirmed break below 21070
🎯 TP1: 20745
🎯 TP2: 20188
📊 All indicators point to potential downside – are you prepared?
Nasdaq-100 H1 | Potential bounce off a pullback supportNasdaq-100 (NAS100) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 20,898.76 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 20,500.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 21,471.38 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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2025.05.22 nasdaq analysis🔸 Daily Chart Perspective
On the daily timeframe, we can see that the recent low was made within the demand zone, but the market began to fall just before the U.S. session closed. The Asian session appears to be in wait-and-see mode for now.
If the trend continues downward, the red box to the left suggests the possibility of a one-way bearish move. In such a case, a drop toward the 20583 area is open.
The daily 20EMA is also near that zone, and since a one-way drop occurred in the red box area before, the possibility is quite realistic.
🔸 1-Hour Chart View
On the 1H chart, the Nasdaq seems to be forming an expanding wedge.
It's hard to say that a trend reversal to the downside is confirmed yet, because price is still inside the expanding pattern.
However, since the market seems to have formed a short-term top, it gives us a sense of direction for short-term trading.
If the price enters the black box area to the left, that could be seen as a complete trend reversal.
🔸 Today’s Trading Plan
At this point, due to yesterday's sharp drop, there’s no clear buy zone visible.
Only short positions are planned for today.
Short Setup #1
Entry: On break below 21112
TP 1: 21075
Short Setup #2
Entry: On break below 21070
TP 1: 20996
Short Setup #3
Entry: On break below 20970 + trendline break
TP Max: 20830 ~ 20770
🔹 Conclusion
It looks like the trend is leaning toward the downside, but it's best to enter positions only after price breaks out of key support zones.
Going short on the Nasdaq 100CAPITALCOM:US100
The Nasdaq 100 has moved up impulsively on a 5-wave move over the past 6 weeks, which is very bullish long term. However, in the short term, it is overextended, with the RSI indicator over the 70 level.
I expect it to decline over the next couple of weeks to the area marked in the green rectangle, between the 50% and the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.
I hope you find this interesting.
Good luck to you
QQQ about to FLUSH?! Let's talk about it!I'm not saying it's over but you have to admit it does feel like we are going to see a decent size pullback...2-6% over the next few weeks on the NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY
- TVC:VIX back over 20
- US20Y hit 52 week high
- USDJPY starting to creep towards April lows
- $491.54 GAP to fill on NASDAQ:QQQ
- $447.58 Bigger GAP to fill on NASDAQ:QQQ
- Credit starting to become and issue
- Banks/ Credit companies tanked today
There is bullish pieces as well but we do look extended here and a healthy 2-6% would be welcomed...A break of $475 level spells trouble on QQQ.
Indexes Daily "Slow" Trend anticipationExpecting a Daily slowliness a.k.a. HRLR (ICT Concepts) due to the Bonds decorrelation which is bearish. Once Bonds has reached Sell Side Liquidity Target, acceleration will be seen on Indexes higher. Meanwhile "give and take" is expected on a Daily and 4h basis.
Bullish Weekly Bias IndexesBullish Indexes Target on Weekly perspective.
Expecting Nasdaq to breach trough the W IFVG and reach 22,5588.00 within the next few weeks.
Expecting S&P500 to use the W IFVG as "Support" and reach 6,235.00
Nasdaq’s Next Move Revealed This Week – Don’t Miss the Breakout Following a strong surge at the start of the trading week, the Nasdaq reached a new high since March 26th. At this juncture, I anticipate a potential pullback before any sustained upward movement. My analysis suggests monitoring for a retracement to the New Week Opening Gap (NWOG), where price action will likely provide critical insights. I see two probable scenarios:
1. A move to the NWOG, followed by a strong bounce, potentially targeting a new all-time high, as some market commentators have suggested.
2. A weak reaction at the NWOG, leading to a breakdown below this level, with 16,000 as the next key support target.
This week's price action will be pivotal in determining the Nasdaq's near-term direction. I recommend close observation of these levels and disciplined risk management when positioning for either outcome.
