Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/18/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
Nasdaq
NASDAQ: Bullish until March 2025.Nasdaq is overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 72.532, MACD = 396.420, ADX = 56.355) and is about to do the same on the 1W as well (RSI = 69.424). This is because the Bull Cycle is on full extent. However, in anticipation of Q1 2025, we are entering the final phase of the Cycle. This is a Top sequence that we've seen three time before in the last 10 years. The early signal for this is when the 3W RSI forms overbought (RSI > 70.000) LH. Each time that happened, the index had a sharp drop to at least the 3W MA50. TP = 19,000 could be an early target.
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Tesla (TSLA): Long-Term Breakout Backed by Strong MomentumChart Analysis:
Tesla shares have surged past key resistance at $415, marking a significant breakout with strong bullish momentum.
1️⃣ Key Breakout:
The price broke above the horizontal resistance level at $415, which previously capped gains in 2021. This breakout signals renewed strength and opens the door for potential continuation.
2️⃣ Moving Averages:
50-week SMA (blue): The price is well above the 50-week SMA at $227, highlighting robust upward momentum and a bullish long-term structure.
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: Currently at 80.96, signaling overbought conditions. While this reflects strong buying interest, traders may watch for signs of exhaustion or a pullback.
MACD: Bullish momentum is accelerating, with the MACD line rising sharply and far above the signal line.
What to Watch:
A potential retest of the $415 breakout level as support would be a key technical development to confirm the breakout's strength.
Traders should monitor RSI for signs of divergence or overbought reversals while keeping an eye on continuation patterns.
Tesla has broken free from a multi-year range, driven by strong bullish momentum. The price action and breakout above $415 suggest bulls are firmly in control.
-MW
TSLA Weekly: Bullish BreakoutTesla's weekly chart showcases a bullish breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern. The RSI on the same timeframe remains supportive, adding weight to the potential for price increases. This is a promising technical setup, but a major event looms – earnings on Tuesday after the market closes. The post-earnings price action will be crucial in determining Tesla's next move. Stay tuned!
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/17/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
$AMD Forms Another Double Bottom – Will History Repeat Itself?I wanted to share an interesting setup I’ve noticed on NASDAQ:AMD daily chart. The stock just completed what looks like a classic double bottom pattern—something it’s done before with impressive results.
What I’m Seeing:
Double Bottom Revisited:
We can see that AMD has formed another “W” shaped bottom, where price tested a support zone twice and successfully bounced.
Historical Precedent:
The last time AMD completed a double bottom, the subsequent breakout and follow-through rally were significant. After the neckline breakout, price continued to move higher, rewarding patient traders and confirming the pattern’s bullish nature.
Volume & Confirmation:
It’s worth looking closely at volume to confirm the pattern. In many textbook double bottoms, volume often increases on the breakout, signaling that buyers are stepping in. If we see heavier trading volumes as AMD breaks through the neckline, it could be an indication that a similar move might unfold.
Potential Price Target:
A common way to project a double bottom target is to measure the height of the “W” and add it to the breakout point. If this pattern performs similarly to the last one, we could see a significant upside move. Of course, there are no guarantees, but patterns like these give traders a framework to manage risk and set objectives.
What to Watch For:
Neckline Break: A clean move above the neckline (resistance area) would be a key bullish signal.
Volume Expansion: Higher volume on the breakout adds conviction.
Market Conditions: Broader market health and sentiment can affect whether the pattern plays out as expected.
AMD has shown us before that this pattern can precede major rallies. As always, manage your risk appropriately—no matter how promising a setup looks, it’s wise to confirm with price action and volume before jumping in.
NQ Nasdaq 100 Trade IdeaNQ is currently hovering in midstream and waiting it for it to show what it wants to do next i.e. whether it takes out the buyside or sellside liquidity, and I will be looking for an opportunity to trade in the opposing direction after the liquidity grab.
Generally, prefer for price to take out the Equal Lows below moving into a discount and then buy the price up take out the Previous Day High liquidity.
2024-12-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Another mind boggling rally with a strong break above 22000. Volume is atrocious but that does not matter one bit as long as we continue up. Market has now broken above at least 2 bigger patterns on my charts and every time a market does that, I expect it to fail, rather than to be the start of a new and stronger trend.
current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon
key levels: 20000 - 20500
bull case : I got one more bullish target at 22400 but that’s it. We could reach it but I would be very cautious tomorrow and wait how much interest there is in buying above 22100 when the momentum fades. No more thoughts about this for now from a bullish perspective. It’s beyond overbought.
Invalidation is below 21800.
bear case: Many upper trend lines and breaks above them. Overbought conditions and low volume. All valid arguments but only price matters and that is going higher. 1h close below 21900 is needed for the bears. Before that I would not trust most selling attempts because it’s more likely they will become another bull flag and break to the upside again. I’d be very surprised if bears manage to get down to 21900 and close the gap.
Invalidation is above 22200.
short term: I’d rather look for shorts above 22100 than for more longs. Can go higher but it would do so without me.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 over the weekend.
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Just balls to the walls long from us open or even Global for that matter. Unreal strength.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 16 Dec 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None, FOMC this Wednesday
News - None
Directional bias - BUY, Nasdaq is bullish overall so want to trade with the trend - "The trend is your friend".
Morning analysis:
M TF - Very Bullish, large green candle in formation
W TF - Very Bullish, large green candle in formation
D TF - Friday's candle closed in a rough doji candle formation which could signal that bulls are running out of steam to push price higher. But the candle did close green higher than the previous D highest candle close. So bulls did manage to break the resistance of the previous Day's highest close. I took this to be a bullish signal.
4H TF - Price gapped up as extended hours started trading today. Bulls pushed upwards and when I opened my charts there were a few red candles on the 1H TF.
1H TF - Noted a temporary downtrend line formed (marked in turquoise).
Noted 2 x interest areas / areas of confluence (marked in green highlight):
1. Top green area = 1H + D + 4H fib levels + Day pivot point. This represents time frame confluence and a great area of reversal.
2. Bottom green area = 4h EMA (at some point this morning, it has now moved due to passage of time) + 4H + D 0.618 fib level.
4H fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.
1H fib drawn from swing low at C to swing high at D.
As the day progressed:
Price started reacting to the top highlighted green area, until a DB formed on the 15min TF, signalling that price was ready to move up.
Entered in the green candle close at the hand icon, which represents a nice momentum candle + breaking the temporary downtrend line.
Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - DB on the 15min TF = reversal pattern in the direction I want
2. S&R - DB formed above the pivot point + 1H EMA providing dynamic support
3. Trend - Temporary downtrend line broken and trade is in the overall direction of the market
4. Fib - Price reacting to 1H + 4H + D fib levels representing strong TF confluence
5. Candlesticks - DB neckline broken with a strong momentum candle on the 15min TF
Mental SL placed at half the height of the 15min DB (marked with the think pink line).
Price moved up nicely and I took partial profits at the top hand icon at 1'725 pips, which represented the TP1 of the 4H / D fib extension (as shown).
Holding the rest until candles give the indication to close eg. DT forming on the 15min TF, with neckline broken down.
Easy peasy day at my trading desk - wish every day was this easy! :)
Hope you had a good day!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NASDAQ rally still has lots of upside before is tops.Nasdaq (NDX) is technically respecting the 2-year Channel Up that it's been trading in since the December 26 2022 market bottom. Its most recent Higher Low was on the August 05 2024 1W candle, which initiated the Bullish Leg we're currently in.
As you see, the previous two Bullish Legs had one main pull-back/ correction sequence each and apart from that, the majority of the Leg was technically a straight uptrend. Given that the current Bullish Leg already had a strong pull-back early on (August 26 - September 02 1W candles), it may continue to rise up to its target without another correction, assuming the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) holds.
If however it has another pull-back similar to the previous Bullish Leg (March 04 - April 15 2024), then it should rise some more near the 0.236 Fibonacci level and then pull-back.
In any event, the current level is technically a solid long-term buy entry and since both previous Bullish Legs have been around +48%, we expect to see 25300 before the current one tops.
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Tesla's Electrifying Rally: Stock Zooms to New Peaks● After facing a notable setback at the $415 mark, the stock took a dramatic plunge, dropping around 75% before finding its footing close to the $100 threshold.
● Following this, the stock entered an extended period of consolidation, eventually created a Rounding Bottom pattern.
● Recently, the stock has surpassed its previous resistance and reached all-time high.
● This breakthrough has sparked significant excitement, with optimism soaring about the stock's future growth potential.
NAS100 - Nasdaq, the only green index last week!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zones, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. The valid failure of the previous ATH will provide the conditions for the continuation of the rise of this index.
The Economist predicts that as 2025 approaches, the U.S. economy is in a highly favorable position. It expects a soft economic landing in the upcoming year, meaning the U.S. will successfully reduce inflation to its 2% target without harming economic growth. While analysts previously forecasted a recession for the U.S., Washington now stands out as the only major economy whose output exceeds pre-pandemic trends.
This year, the Nasdaq index has significantly outperformed other major U.S. stock market indices. The primary reason is the heavy weighting of tech stocks in the index. Technology stocks, particularly the “Big Seven” tech giants, have seen remarkable growth due to the AI revolution and market optimism.On the other hand, the Dow Jones index, which is more focused on industrial stocks, has lagged behind Nasdaq despite notable gains.
The United States is preparing new restrictions on AI chips to block China’s indirect access to this technology. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, these restrictions aim to prevent China from using hidden pathways to obtain AI chips. Sources familiar with the plan revealed that the U.S. intends to hold companies like Google and Microsoft accountable for managing access to advanced AI chips.
The most significant economic event this week is the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of 2024, set to be announced on Wednesday. Markets are already anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut, but attention will focus on the Fed’s policy statement and Jerome Powell’s remarks during the press conference. Traders will look for clues about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook for the upcoming year. Additionally, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, which could have a global market impact.
Key economic data on American consumer health will also be released this week. On Tuesday, the November retail sales report will provide fresh insights into consumer behavior during the holiday season. Moreover, on Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—a key inflation metric closely watched by the Fed—will be released, potentially clarifying the direction of future monetary policy.
Other important economic data include the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the S&P Global PMI leading index, both set for release on Monday. On Thursday, critical figures such as the final Q3 GDP growth rate, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, November existing home sales, and weekly jobless claims will also be published.
Analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this week, but the pace of rate cuts in 2025 is expected to be slow. Due to sticky inflation and some inflationary policies from Donald Trump, economists anticipate only three rate cuts in 2025.
The U.S. dollar has performed impressively this year, supported by the country’s economic conditions. However, Morgan Stanley analysts, including David Adams, believe buying the dollar at this point may be a mistake, as there is a downside risk for the currency. Based on their discussions, many investors expect the dollar index to rise further. Morgan Stanley argues that positive news is already fully priced into the dollar and that markets may be overestimating the speed, scope, and impact of economic measures.
GDS Holdings (GDS) AnalysisCompany Overview:
GDS Holdings NASDAQ:GDS , a leading provider of high-performance data center solutions in China and Southeast Asia, is well-positioned to benefit from the exploding demand for data centers driven by cloud adoption, AI proliferation, and digital transformation across the region.
Key Catalysts:
Capital Injection to Fuel Growth:
GDS secured an upsized Series B equity raise of $1.2 billion, led by key backers like SoftBank Vision Fund and Kenneth Griffin, reflecting significant investor confidence.
The capital will enable GDS to develop over 1 GW of new data center capacity, fast-tracking its expansion plans across its key markets.
Strong Regional Demand:
Rising data consumption and the rapid digitalization in China and Southeast Asia position GDS to capitalize on surging regional demand for premium data centers.
GDS’s established expertise and strategic partnerships further solidify its leadership in these high-growth regions.
Long-Term Revenue Growth:
The investment supports GDS’s long-term ambitions to increase scale and market share, enabling sustainable revenue and margin growth.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on GDS above the $17.50-$18.00 range, driven by its strong expansion strategy, favorable market conditions, and robust investor backing.
Upside Potential: Our upside target for GDS is $34.00-$35.00, reflecting substantial growth opportunities in data center infrastructure and the company’s ability to execute its large-scale development plans.
🚀 GDS—Expanding Capacity to Meet Surging Data Center Demand in Asia. #DataCenters #TechInfrastructure #GrowthMarkets
BTCUSD | Trade ideaBTCUSD is trading weak ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, having hit a low of $55,282 and currently hovering around $55,958.
The number of large investors holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC has reached a one-month high of 16,120, indicating that whales are buying BTC at lower levels.
BTC ETFs have experienced an outflow of $211 million, marking the seventh consecutive day of withdrawals.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has dropped to 57% from 70% a week ago.
US Markets:
NASDAQ (negative correlation with BTC): Bearish but neutral for BTC, trading weak ahead of the NFP data. A close above 20,000 could push the index to 20,500.
Technical Analysis:
BTCUSD is trading below the short-term 34-EMA and 55-EMA, as well as the long-term 200-EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating weakness.
On the daily chart, BTC remains below both short- and long-term moving averages, confirming minor weakness.
Support Levels:
Minor support at $54,000. A break below could push BTC to $53,000/$50,000/$46,000.
Bullish Scenario:
Primary supply zone: $57,000. A break above this level could confirm intraday bullish momentum with potential targets of $60,000/$61,800/$63,000/$65,000/$67,000/$70,000.
Secondary barrier: $70,000. A close above could target $75,000/$80,000.
Market Watch Can the NASDAQ Overcome Resistance or Will It Fall?The NASDAQ has been struggling to break above the $20,059.24 resistance level, facing multiple rejections in recent sessions. This repeated failure to push higher suggests a potential shift to bearish momentum, especially with broader market weakness observed this week. If the NASDAQ fails to clear this resistance, we could see it break down from its current channel, which has been intact since September 6, 2024.
If the price moves lower, the next key support levels are at $18,669.99 and $17,975.67. A breakdown below these levels could trigger further declines, and the market might follow suit with a broader selloff. These support levels are critical for any potential reversal. Keep a close eye on the resistance and support levels, as the direction here could influence the broader market sentiment in the coming weeks.