Weekly Market Forecast: Wait For BUYS! Stock Indices and GoldIn this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of May12 - 16th.
The Stock Indices were sluggish last week, holding at support. Wait for a market structure shift to the upside to confirm buys.
Gold and Silver may move higher, as India and Pakistan, Gaza and Ukraine are increasingly troublesome.
CPI Data on Tuesday. This could be a strong market mover.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Nasdaq
#202519 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaqGood Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Not much changed last week so I do not change much of what I wrote then. Bulls want at least 20536 now and run all the stops from before the big sell-off. Bears are not doing anything at all, so bulls will likely get it. This could be a breakout-retest and I marked the area for that with the red rectangle. Small chance bears come around next week but for now it’s still too early to short. The bull wedge is about to break out over the next 1-2 days and if bulls stay above 19600, we should expect higher prices.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels for next week: 19000 - 21000
bull case: 20536 and then 21000. Those are the next targets and bulls are in full control of the market. The measured move from the buy spike at the lows is around 22350 and it’s possible that we get there. I think we need to see a pullback and how deep that will be. If we get only another sell spike and immediate buying for higher highs, we can also assume much higher prices. Above 21100 there is no reason not to go for 23000. Nothing of this changed to last week. Bulls preventing the bears from getting any decent pullback, which is uber bullish.
Invalidation is below 19100.
bear case: Problem for the bulls is, that we have not closed above the weekly 20ema for two weeks now and bears defending the prior lower high 20536. That was and will be my line in the sand next week. Gap close to it, we have no reason not to print a new ath but below19600 I think more bulls will give up, depending on the strength of the selling. As of now, nothing about the chart is bearish but one decent down day > -2% could change that.
Invalidation is above 20620ish.
short term: Neutral. Market went nowhere and trading on hope and fairy dust is not my thing. I wait.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-05-11: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish. Now I assume we will be in a trading range 16000 - 23000 for much longer. Same update as for dax, I guess we could go down and sideways over the next weeks/months and then have another squeeze into year end. Stairs up, elevator down.
US100 - Correction Required Before Next Major Rally PhaseThe US Tech 100 index is showing signs of exhaustion after a strong recovery rally from April lows, with price action now facing resistance at the upper blue box around 20,200. The index appears to be forming a short-term top as momentum wanes, evidenced by recent candle patterns displaying indecision and inability to sustain new highs. The downward-pointing red arrow suggests a likely move toward the middle support zone around 19,000, which would represent a healthy correction of about 5-6% from current levels. This pullback would help reset overbought technical indicators and potentially shake out weak hands before establishing a stronger foundation for the next leg higher. Given the sharp rally we've witnessed from the April lows near 16,400, this correction would be technically justified and provide a more sustainable launching pad for continuation of the longer-term uptrend once complete.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NQ Analysis - 11th May 2025Here is my analysis of NQ, a pair I do not trade and only very seldomly do analysis for.
I've been wanting to get into indices futures, so I will be doing more analysis on them in the future. I still have to learn about the contract sizes, average moves, etc.
- R2F Trading
Will gold reach an all-time high?Gold (XAU/USD) Market Analysis
Trend Environment
The 4-hour chart of Gold (XAU/USD) from OANDA illustrates a strong impulsive structure within a broader bullish trend. Following a sharp upward movement that broke through previous structure, gold formed a swing high before entering a corrective phase. The market has since pulled back and appears to be stabilizing near a zone of high confluence, suggesting potential for a renewed move to the upside.
Key Levels
Support Zone 3,280-3,300 region, characterized by a fair value gap and Fibonacci golden pocket zone (0.618-0.65 retracement levels).
Potential Targets Higher lows and break of structure above recent swing highs, with buy-side liquidity levels (BSL) marking areas where buy stops are likely to be clustered.
Technical Confluence
The alignment of the fair value gap and Fibonacci retracement levels in the 3,280-3,300 region increases the likelihood of price reacting positively. Fair value gaps represent inefficiencies in the market caused by strong institutional participation, while the golden pocket is historically known for acting as a magnet for reversals within trending markets.
Bullish Scenario
The chart projects a potential bullish continuation move, with a series of higher lows anticipated to form en route to a break of structure above recent swing highs. A methodical stair-step advance is expected, respecting interim levels before ultimately attempting to reach the prior high near 3,530.
Strategic Framework
This analysis offers a methodical roadmap for bullish continuation, rooted in the smart money framework of liquidity, inefficiency, and institutional order flow. The confluence between the fair value gap and Fibonacci retracement serves as a key validation area for bullish traders. By understanding the technical and institutional drivers of the market, traders can better navigate the complexities of the gold market and identify potential opportunities for growth.
SPY weekly thoughts for May 12th - 16th. Trump Pump?What’s up traders — this is my first idea post here on TradingView, and I’m hyped to finally share something with the community. In this breakdown, I’ll be covering a few key areas I’m watching:
🟩 Support zones
📉 Resistance levels
🕯️ Weekly candle behaviour
🌍 Macro outlook and possible catalysts
📌 Important notes
⚠️ My current bias
Let’s jump in:
🟩 Support Zones:
Buyers are still showing up strong in that $505–$507 range(I highly doubt their orders will get filled lol). it had been a reliable bounce zone — we’ve seen repeated wicks rejecting that level and price snapping back VERY quickly.
Above that, $550 has developed into a new area of support, and right now that’s my main level to watch. If that gives out, I expect we’ll head back down to test the $507 zone again. But for now, bulls are doing their job.
📉 Resistance
SPY keeps getting stuck around $573–$575. That zone’s been tested a few times now, but buyers haven’t been able to push it through. Sellers are stepping in there almost every time.
🕯️ Weekly Candle Context
That’s three straight weekly closes below resistance. Bulls get some momentum mid-week, but by Friday, sellers take over. It’s showing signs of a stall — like the market’s running out of gas near the top.
🌍 Macro Outlook – What Could Move Things
There’s been some talk of softer trade discussions and early negotiations with China. If any of that turns into a real deal, it could be the spark SPY needs to finally break above resistance.
But on the flip side — if Trump starts pushing new tariffs (even smaller ones), those moves tend to hold stocks back, especially in tech.
So the big question is:
Can SPY hit new highs if tech keeps cooling off and there’s pressure from new trade policy?
That’s the tug-of-war right now — possible upside from improving global relations, but real downside risk from political decisions.
📌 Things I’m Watching:
A weekly close above $575 would shift me to a bullish bias.
If we lose $550, I’ll be watching closely to see how price behaves near $507.
⚠️ Current Bias
Right now I’m FAIRLY neutral with a slight bullish lean, but very excited for this next weekly candle.
The macro setup looks like it could support a move higher, but I’m staying decently cautious until we get a clear weekly breakout(+575) and close above resistance.
Let me know what you think — and if you’re watching the same levels.
GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.) – Medium-Term Position Trade SetupNASDAQ:GOOGL is showing strength as it revisits its previous all-time high, now aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the current wave. The price action suggests a bullish flip of resistance into support at the $153 zone, with clear signs of buyer defense—offering a compelling medium-term opportunity.
🔹 Entry Zone:
Around $153 (support zone)
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
🥇 $200
🥈 $230
🛑 Stop Loss:
Weekly close below $130
NQ1! "E-Mini Nasdaq 100" Index Market Bullish Robbery Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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2025-05-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Market closed where it opened, after the early rally from Globex to mid EU session and then another one after the US open bear trap. I could not believe that bulls would do another strong move up after such a rejection above 20250 but meh. Can they really do another tomorrow after yet another strong rejection? Until bears print lower lows, the answer is "probably”. Clear bull wedge and bears need to break below 19970 for more downside. If we stay above 20100 we can do higher highs until we ultimately hit 20536 or higher.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19700 - 20600
bull case: Bulls printed two amazing rallies and they we not enough to make meaningful higher highs and accelerate upwards. Usually that price action would have been enough for more bears to give up but once market began to stall on new highs, bulls vanished and bears overwhelmed them. I don’t have much for the bulls tbh. 5 tries and they are still failing.
Invalidation is below 19100.
bear case: Bears need to break the bull wedge and print below 19970. That’s about it. The rejections from new highs are good but the follow-through is trash. Going below 19600 into the weekend is me next wet dream.
Invalidation is above 20400.
short term: Neutral. Bulls grinding but for how many more tries? If that is bad English, you can do you.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year.
trade of the day: Shorting new highs continues to print money.
NASDAQ 2m Chart PO3 Acc, Manip Dist - Last Hour Party?Even though today has been crazy think a little sanity has setup for a classic ICT AMD play.
As of writing this we are in Accumulation. Watch for what appears to be a run higher, that gets hammered.
The last hour of the trading day on the 2m chart crosses above the 75 SMA, maybe it's pump time?
Check it out, gimmi feedback.
Thanks!
Craig
AAPL – Long Trade Setup (Support-Based Reversal Opportunity)Apple (AAPL) is pulling back toward a key support zone between $197–$198, aligning with both previous structural support and potential demand zone behavior. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward profile for a swing long entry.
🔹 Entry Zone:
$197 – $198
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
🥇 $210 – $215
🥈 $225 – $233
🛑 Stop Loss:
Just below $190
NVIDIA: Breakout above ascending triangle, retest confirmationNVDA has been forming an ascending triangle over the past few weeks, with declining volume. Finally, it broke out yesterday, and today, we had a retest of the resistance line. NVDA was down about 1% earlier today however after a successful retest of the resistance line, it is now up 0.8% at the time of writing.
In terms of support, it seems the price has successfully bounced off the 50-Day SMA line. While an ascending triangle is bullish, the 200-Day SMA is likely going to be a point of resistance (around $125).
This is amid the renewed overall market strength and the news related to the reduced limitations of exporting AI chips - which is contributing to the momentum.
Please note: Not financial advice.
Weekly Forecasts UPDATES! ALL Markets Analyzed! Stocks & FOREXIn this Weekly Forecast UPDATE, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Metals futures, and the FOREX Majors for Thursday, May 8th.
The targets set in last weekend's forecasts are still in play! Trade accordingly.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NASDAQ 100 Elliott Wave Update – Wave (5) in Play?CME_MINI:NQ1!
📊 NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures – Elliott Wave Analysis
🗓️ Weekly Chart – April 2025
The NASDAQ 100 appears to have completed an ABC corrective pattern, marking the end of wave (4). A bullish move toward wave (5) is now projected, with a potential target zone highlighted in yellow:
🎯 Target 1: 32,291 (100% extension)
🎯 Target 2: 38,678 (127% extension)
This zone marks the Fibonacci projection for the fifth wave, based on the Elliott Wave principle. The bullish structure remains valid as long as the key support at 16,551 holds.
🔎 Key things to watch:
Confirmation of a reversal at wave (C) low
Increasing volume on upward moves
Momentum indicators like RSI / MACD
NASDAQ (NDX) Market OutlookCurrently, the NASDAQ is trading around 19,723. We're anticipating a short-term pullback toward the 19,462 level, where a significant pool of liquidity awaits. This zone could act as a magnet for price in the near term. Once price reaches this area, we’ll closely monitor the lower timeframes for a potential bullish reaction or accumulation, which could signal the next leg higher.
Stay patient and let price confirm at key levels.
Nasdaq - Printing The Obvious Bottom!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) already finished the correction:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After we witnessed a minor "crash" of about -25% over the past couple of weeks, the bottom might be in on the Nasdaq. We simply saw another very bullish all time high break and retest and depite the possibility of a second retest, I am (still) extremely bullish at these levels.
Levels to watch: $17.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ: Rebounding on the 4H MA50. New High for the Channel Up.Nasdaq is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.883, MACD = 127.320, ADX = 37.197) and is rebounding today on the 4H MA50, right before the HL of the Channel Up. This is a technical bottom that calls for a buy. We aim for a new +6% bullish wave (TP = 20,800).
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MNQ1!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 05/06/2025MNQ1!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 05/06/2025
📈 19840 19900 19965
📉 19779 19717 19655
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
Please like and share for more ES/NQ levels Tues & Thurs 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Will NASDAQ Continue Its Climb? Here's my Trade Plan.📈 NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) Technical & Price Action Outlook 💡🚀
The NASDAQ has been in a strong bullish trend, driven by optimism around interest rates, tech earnings, and positive momentum. 📰💻 While price has pushed up aggressively, it’s now trading near key highs and buy-side liquidity zones—a spot where I’m anticipating a possible pullback. 🔁💰
I’m watching closely for a retracement into the 50% Fibonacci zone—my point of interest for a potential long setup. 🎯📐 However, I’ll only consider entering if price breaks structure bullish (BoS) after the pullback. 📊🧠
The index is still recovering from earlier 2025 losses, and resistance lies just ahead—so risk management is key. 🧘♂️⚠️
Not financial advice.
MELI at Risk from Momentum Shift and High ValuationMELI has gained over 35% since the April dip, but momentum has been fading since September. The slowdown has become increasingly visible, and last week's high may remain the top for some time unless Wednesday’s earnings report surprises the market on the upside.
The consensus estimate for MELI’s revenue is $5,497.05 million, representing a 26.86% year-over-year increase but a 9.27% decline quarter-over-quarter. MELI is currently trading at a forward P/E of 41.9x, which is significantly higher than the 19.8x average of comparable companies. Its geographic advantage over U.S.-based peers gave MELI an edge in April, but without strong earnings to support the high valuation, the stock could become vulnerable.
Over the past five years, MELI averaged 56.2% annual sales growth. That figure is expected to fall to an average of 22.1% over the next three years, which remains solid but signals a clear deceleration.
MELI could move more than 7% on earnings day, depending on the report. If the stock falls below 2,000, it may present a buying opportunity. However, the loss of momentum is usually a negative signal for sustaining trends, so the risk of buying the dip is higher than before.
Nasdaq: The Rally Continues!The Nasdaq ended last week with strong upward momentum, moving swiftly toward the resistance at 20,694 points. Now it's getting interesting: once the index breaks above this mark, it should quickly enter our upper turquoise Target Zone (coordinates: 21,751 – 22,425 points), where we expect the peak of wave X in turquoise. Afterward, we anticipate a pullback during wave Y, which should aim for our lower turquoise Target Zone (coordinates: 17,074 – 15,867 points). The corrective magenta wave (4) should be completed there. However, if the Nasdaq directly surpasses the significant resistance at 23,229 points, our alternative scenario will take effect. In this 35% likely case, we would consider wave alt.(4) as already complete and locate the index in the impulsive wave alt.(5) .