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2024-11-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Market tested the 50% retracement to the tick and reversed up. It also closed above the daily 20ema, so bulls remain in control but barely. Clear triangle on the daily chart and it has room for 1-2 more days but it could also break out big time tomorrow. current market cycle: Bull trend but also nested triangle on the daily chart key levels : 20500 - 21500 bull case: First target is a break above 2100 and we would likely see giving up by the bears then and no more resistance until 21340. If bulls fail here and the bull trend line from August breaks, market is free to crash down to 18000. Invalidation is below 20500. bear case: Bears need strong follow through selling below 20700 or we won’t see lower prices. 20850 is around the mid point of the triangle and my line in the sand for bears. If they manage to keep it below, we could test down to 20700 and maybe break below. Invalidation is above 21000. short term: Neutral. Either wait for a bigger breakout or play the range. medium-long term: If we stay above 20500, will likely rally more into year end before a bigger correction. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling the US open. Market traded below the 2m 20ema for 240 points down.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
Nasdaq: A -0.9% Decline Amid Mixed Economic DataNasdaq: A -0.9% Decline Amid Mixed Economic Data The Nasdaq index experienced a slight decline of 0.9% today, reflecting a mix of economic signals, investor sentiment, and broader geopolitical concerns. Key data releases from the US provided a nuanced picture of economic performance, contributing to cautious market behavior. US Economic Data Highlights - **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, reflecting tighter supply conditions. - **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion. - **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but signaling a slowdown compared to revised previous data of 0.6%. - **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased marginally by 0.2%, falling short of the forecast of 0.5%, indicating weaker-than-expected demand for long-term goods. - **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Rose to 2.3%, aligning with forecasts but higher than the previous 2.1%, underscoring mild inflationary pressures. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Despite today’s decline, seasonality is currently favorable for the Nasdaq, as historical trends often support equities during this time of year. Additionally, the **Fear & Greed Index** currently sits at **64 points**, indicating moderate optimism among investors and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically supports risk-on behavior in the markets. Rate Cut Expectations Market participants are closely monitoring monetary policy, with a **70% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut** at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on **December 18th**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks While the economic picture and market sentiment provide support, ongoing geopolitical risks continue to weigh on investor confidence. The war in Ukraine remains a significant factor in the global risk landscape, with potential implications for energy prices, supply chains, and broader economic stability. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Correction Could Persist The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact for now, supported by strong economic fundamentals and favorable seasonality. However, the current correction may take some time to resolve as markets digest mixed data and geopolitical risks. Investors should be prepared for potential short-term volatility while keeping an eye on key macroeconomic developments. Broader Context Today’s data reinforced the view of a steady, albeit moderating, US economy. However, forward-looking risks are rising: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast predicts global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with the US slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Anticipated policy changes under the new administration may elevate inflationary pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for Nasdaq The Nasdaq’s modest decline today reflects investor caution as the market digests mixed signals from economic data and weighs the potential for policy shifts. However, supportive seasonality, a "Greed" sentiment on the Fear & Greed Index, and expectations of a December rate cut could help stabilize or even boost the index in the near term. Looking ahead, the interplay between policy developments, global growth dynamics, geopolitical risks, and corporate earnings will remain crucial for the index's direction. What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq? Will the anticipated rate cut and seasonal trends provide a boost, or will geopolitical and economic risks keep the market under pressure? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US100
by InvestMate
1
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 26 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST) Economic news - None News - None Directional bias - BUY Morning analysis: Unfortunately I woke up to my positions from yesterday being taken out at entry :( I did take one third partial profit last night a few minutes before closing as I knew it was a risk to leave it open overnight (especially as the D candle was about to close red below the day 0.618 sell fib level) and I wanted some reward for yesterday's trading. M TF - remains bullish and sets the tone of the overall, big picture, market sentiment. W TF - looking at the line chart and imagining this week's candle would be dominated by bears, one can see a potential weekly DT neckline at the yellow highlight. If candles start closing below this point then the market would turn very bearish. D TF - Yesterday the D candle closed red below the D 0.618 sell fib level. This is a bearish signal and bulls will need strength to break this level upwards. 4H - drawing the sell fib from swing hight at B. to swing low at A., it is evident that the 4H 0.50 sell fib level lines up with the pivot point (an area of confluence for a sell) and the 4H 0.618 sell fib level lines up with the D 0.618 sell fib level (super strong area of confluence). Bulls will need incredible strength and momentum to break these levels upwards. Need to watch out. But the 23:00 4H candle closed with a very long wick down to the higher TF's buy fib levels. This indicates that buyers stepped in at these levels. All Lower TF EMA's are below price at time of writing (4H, 1H and 30min) this might provide dynamic support to help boost price upwards. Note - 4H EMA drawn in by me indicated the position of the EMA at some point in the day, now, many hours after, the EMA has moved. If the 4H candle closes at 7am, creating a DB with the neckline broken upwards, I will enter. As the day progressed: The 4H candle that closes at 7am (in my time zone) did indeed close higher than the neckline and break the neckline upwards Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations: 1. Market pattern - DB on 4H TF formed with the neckline broken upwards (indicated by the blue lines). At the same time there was a kind of DB / H&S on the 1H TF. 2. S&R - At time of market pattern formation, the 4H EMA was acting as dynamic support. We also have a strong 4H resistance turned to support area (refer to yesterday's post about keeping 5x 4H candles down) 3. Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall trend - as a trend trader I always want to trade with the trend. Get in on a retracement (indicated by fib levels) and then ride the trend. 4. Fib - DB forming right above the 4H 0.618 fib level 5. Candlesticks - 2 x long wick 4H candles wicking down to the D 0.50 fib level, indicating a strong bullish reaction at this level. Candles are also closing above the 4H EMA which shows bullish strength. Mental SL placed at the thick pink line roughly half the height of the 4H DB, but below the 4H EMA for extra protection. I always use mental stops because Nas is so wild and volatile that hard stops will often take you out at a loss. For me, what matters is how candles close. Price ultimately went my way and I closed the majority of my positions at the higher hand icon, when a DT formed on the 5min TF. I left a runner open but price wicked me out at C. Starting to wonder if I would make more money taking profit at 1000 pips daily. Market has been very volatile these past days and perhaps that is why I feel this way, because I know for sure that taking profit at 1000 pips would not be a good strategy when Nas truly starts running / seriously trending. I will start taking detailed notes over the next few months and come back to you on my observations. Catch ya tomorrow! :) Abbreviations: TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance H&S = head & shoulders EMA = exponential moving average SL = stop loss
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq - This Is Just The Beginning!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is preparing a major rally going into 2025: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 As mentioned in all of my previous analysis, the Nasdaq is rallying but despite the recent strong move, there is still a lot more room towards the upside. With the channel breakout happening over the past couple of months, it is quite likely that we will see a rally of +50% during 2025. Levels to watch: $26.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:NDQLong
by basictradingtv
6
NQ - Nasdaq struggles. The weekly reveals itSee the support NQ had? Super nice how the the Medianlines and the A/R set reveals it. But now there is some trouble in the Kitchen. After reaching the white Center-Line, price is struggling to punch through the orange U-MLH. If price can't fight ti's way through this resistance, it will turn south - probably very sharp. To me, this is a cheap Short. If I'm wrong, so be it, it's just one of 1000s of trades. But, it's a offer I can't reject §8-)
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Nasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key EventsNasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events. The Nasdaq ended current day on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year. Mixed Economic Data The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments: Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence. S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector. Nvidia Shines Bright Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to Nasdaq's gains. Market Sentiment and Seasonality The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, Nasdaq benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability. Challenges Ahead While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests this week with two major events: FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024. PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative. Lingering Risks In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of: Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth. Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets. Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario Looking at the current data, the Nasdaq appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now. Conclusion The Nasdaq has shown strength, but this week FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening. What are your thoughts on the Nasdaq’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
1
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 25 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST) Economic news - None News - None Directional bias - BUY Morning analysis: M TF - Remains very bullish, only 4 days till close. Green candle body is 9300 pips strong (at time of writing) - indicates overall bullish sentiment. W TF - Last week's candle closed green, indicating that price broke the previous highest weekly close, came down all the way to retest this level and then last week's candle closed green as bulls successfully retested this level and this weekly resistance has now turned to support. D TF - Huge gap up this morning (686 pips). Price finally broke above the 0.50 SELL fib level. Further indication of bullish sentiment. 4H TF - after the gap up for the start of the day, two long green candles closed on the 4H TF. One had a long wick down rejecting the D Sell 0.618 fib level. Buyers are rejecting this zone and pushing up. I identified 2 areas of confluence (highlighted in green): 1. Strong 4H S&R zone that held down 5 x 4H candles + 4H 0.618 fib level (swing low at A. to swing high at B. This fib only became clear later in the day.) + 4H EMA 2. W 0.50 fib level + D EMA + D 0.618 fib level If price comes down to any of these zones I will enter with a full position size and because these are strong areas of confluence (and Nas is so volatile), I would watch the 5min TF for signs that price is ready to reverse. As the day progressed: Price spike up high to B. and I closed a runner that I had open from last week (not at B. exactly but as price was coming down). Price fell quickly after market open. I view this as a retracement and not a change to the very bullish sentiment that is so evident on the higher TF's. Price come to my interest zone 1 and gave a nice little DB on the 5min TF Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations: 1. Market pattern - DB on 5min TF, with neckline broken upwards with a strong green momentum candle (I don't normally enter on this TF unless it is an area of confluence) 2. S&R - as mentioned strong resistance zone holding down 5 4H candles, now clearly turned to support. Also dynamic support provided by the 4H EMA 3. Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall trend. I like to trade with the trend always. 4. Fib - D 0.382 + 4H 0.618 Mental SL placed below green highlight at the thick pink line at half the height of the 5min DB. Price has moved more than 250pips from my entry and I am now secured at entry (so trading risk free). Will leave it over night and hope to wake up tomorrow morning to my positions still being open. Hope you had a good trading day! :) Abbreviations: TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance H&S = head & shoulders EMA = exponential moving average SL = stop loss
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
NASDAQ looking to hold the 4H MA50 in order to sustain the rallyNasdaq (NDX) broke on Friday above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today is looking to re-test it as a Support. The medium-term pattern has been a Channel Up since the September 06 Low and every time the 4H MA50 broke following a bottom, it held and sustained the Bullish Leg until the top. It appears that the most common rally % within this pattern is +6.80%. As a result, assuming the 4H MA50 holds, our Target is 21650. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot
Why This Health and Energy Company Could Be a Good InvestmentThis company (NASDAQ: ATPC) is based in Malaysia and focuses on health and energy solutions. Even though its stock prices have had ups and downs, it offers some promising reasons why you might want to consider investing. 1. Wide Range of Health Products The company provides various health-related items, such as supplements that improve cell health, help detoxify the body, support better blood flow, and reduce aging effects. These products cover many health needs, showing that the company takes a broad approach to wellness. 2. Focus on Innovation and Partnerships It’s not just about what they sell; the company has teamed up with others to create new solutions. For example, it recently introduced an advanced device to improve breathing, which is a timely response to health concerns around the world. This shows they’re not afraid to innovate and work with others to grow. 3. Expanding into Clean Energy The company is also looking beyond health and moving into renewable energy. It’s working with partners to make solar energy systems more accessible in Southeast Asia. By diversifying into this booming sector, the company is setting itself up to ride the wave of global demand for sustainable solutions. 4. Staying on Track with Global Standards The company recently met the stock exchange’s rules to stay listed, which is a sign of good management and stability. Being listed on a major exchange boosts its credibility with investors. Why It Could Be a Smart Buy This company’s mix of health products, clean energy efforts, and commitment to staying competitive on the global stage makes it worth considering. Of course, as with any investment, you’ll want to do your own research and weigh the risks before deciding.
NASDAQ:ATPCLong
by HASHInvests200
NAS100 - Nasdaq will stabilize above 21 anytime?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index rises towards the specified supply zone, you can look for Nasdaq sell positions to target the bottom of the ascending channel. Nasdaq buying positions will be at the bottom of the channel and the demand zone after the continuation of the corrective movement The housing sector was in the spotlight last week. The market has regained attention following an unexpected surge in mortgage rates, which have risen by nearly 75 basis points since the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut during its September meeting. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for 30-year mortgages climbed to 6.8% in the week ending November 21, offsetting much of the reductions seen in August and September. Existing home sales increased by 3.4% in October, breaking a two-month decline. However, it’s important to note that October’s data largely reflects homebuying activity from late September, a period when mortgage rates were trending downward. Despite this rise, the annualized sales rate of 3.96 million units in October remains sluggish. By comparison, the 2021 average was about 6.1 million units, with current declines largely attributed to higher yields on mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Consumers remain relatively resilient, continuing to spend at a strong pace. October’s retail sales data exceeded expectations with a 0.4% increase, supported by upward revisions to previous figures. This trend indicates that households are entering the holiday season under favorable economic conditions. In the upcoming week, durable goods orders data is anticipated. This segment, particularly aircraft orders, has experienced significant volatility in recent months. Challenges in the aviation industry are among the main reasons for this instability. While strikes may have impacted production last month, Boeing data reveals that only 63 new aircraft orders were placed in October, roughly matching the prior month’s figure. As a result, conditions in October are expected to have stabilized somewhat. Overall, demand appears to be leveling out, yet uncertainties regarding corporate investment spending persist. Although borrowing costs and interest rates have been decreasing, the extent and intensity of these declines remain uncertain. Federal Reserve officials have recently acknowledged that, due to strong economic data and sticky inflation, rate cuts in the coming months are likely to proceed gradually and at a slower pace. Additionally, even though U.S. elections have concluded, it is still unclear which policies, particularly tariffs, will be implemented. This week, several regional indicators—such as the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index—will be released. Monitoring these data points could provide a clearer picture of the U.S. economy’s health and serve as leading indicators for assessing upcoming economic releases. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently indicated that both headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indexes are expected to rise from 2.1% to 2.3% and from 2.7% to 2.8%, respectively, in October. If these projections materialize, the Fed may still proceed with a rate cut in December. Should the PCE report fail to offer clear guidance on the Fed’s next move, investors will turn their attention to the minutes from the November monetary policy meeting, which will be released on the same day. Additionally, other critical data, such as personal income and spending, durable goods orders, and the second estimate of Q3 GDP growth, will be published on Wednesday. According to CME data, market participants estimate a 56% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in the upcoming Fed meeting on December 18, while a 44% chance of holding rates steady is also considered. These probabilities could shift with the release of more data ahead of the meeting. Furthermore, the minutes from the November FOMC meeting are also expected this week.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
Nasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next WeekNasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next Week The Nasdaq ended the week on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year. Mixed Economic Data The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments: - Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears. - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence. - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector. Nvidia Shines Bright Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to Nasdaq's gains. Market Sentiment and Seasonality The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, Nasdaq benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability. Challenges Ahead While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests next week with two major events: 1. FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024. 2. PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative. Lingering Risks In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of: - Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth. - Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets. Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario Looking at the current data, the Nasdaq appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now. Conclusion The Nasdaq has shown strength, but next week’s FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening. What are your thoughts on the Nasdaq’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
1
A Groundbreaking Weekly Close: Is a Big Move Loading? 🔥 The market has spoken, and it’s speaking LOUD. 🔥 This past week’s historic close is nothing short of monumental. For the first time, the market confidently surged above the previous All-Time High (ATH) — breaking through with conviction backed by exceptional volume. But what does this mean for the days ahead? Let’s break it down. A Look Back: What History Tells Us 📈 Reversal That Changed the Game: Earlier this year, the market reversed from a minor dip at the ATH with a surge in liquidity. That move ignited a massive 10% rally. And now, we see the same conditions emerging: Liquidity ✔️ Strong volume ✔️ Breakthrough resistance ✔️ 🔎 The Election Week Trap: Sometimes, the market plays tricks. The US Election Week candle gave us a massive move but was immediately retraced the following week. This teaches us an important lesson: ignore the noise and focus on what truly matters — consistent price action backed by volume. Why This Weekly Close Stands Out ✅ Exceptional Volume: Unlike election-driven volatility, this close is supported by sustained buying pressure. ✅ Breaking Major Resistance: The market isn’t just flirting with the ATH; it’s clearing it decisively. ✅ Momentum Reset: We’re now undoing the noise from previous eventful candles and focusing on the real trajectory. What’s Next: Is Another 10% Rally in the Cards? The stars are aligning for a potential repeat of history. With liquidity unlocked and resistance broken, the market could be gearing up for an even bigger move in the coming days. This past week’s candle could be the foundation for a new bullish wave, signaling a continuation to higher highs. 🧠 Key Takeaways for Traders 💡 Ignore the distraction of single-event candles like the election weeks — focus on volume-backed closes. 💡 Watch for sustained momentum — this close is a signal, not just a moment. 💡 Be prepared for potential follow-through that could mirror the prior 10% move or even exceed it. ⚡ Conclusion: The Market Is Ready to Make a Move ⚡ This isn’t just a weekly close; it’s a statement. The market is poised, primed, and ready to go. Are you ready to ride the wave? ➡️ A major move is loading… and you don’t want to miss it. 🔔 Stay sharp, stay focused, and let the market show its hand!
FX:NAS100
by shazfit
3
Nasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next WeekNasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next Week The Nasdaq ended the week on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year. Mixed Economic Data The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments: - Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears. - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence. - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector. Nvidia Shines Bright Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to Nasdaq's gains. Market Sentiment and Seasonality The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, Nasdaq benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability. Challenges Ahead While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests next week with two major events: 1. FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024. 2. PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative. Lingering Risks In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of: - Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth. - Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets. Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario Looking at the current data, the Nasdaq appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now. Conclusion The Nasdaq has shown strength, but next week’s FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening. What are your thoughts on the Nasdaq’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by InvestMate
1
Nasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next Week Nasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next Week The Nasdaq ended the week on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year. Mixed Economic Data The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments: - Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears. - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence. - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector. Nvidia Shines Bright Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to Nasdaq's gains. Market Sentiment and Seasonality The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, Nasdaq benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability. Challenges Ahead While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests next week with two major events: 1. FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024. 2. PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative. Lingering Risks In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of: - Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth. - Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets. Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario Looking at the current data, the Nasdaq appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now. Conclusion The Nasdaq has shown strength, but next week’s FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening. What are your thoughts on the Nasdaq’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
Unlocking the Myth of Price Action: A Strategic PerspectiveThe Market’s Telltale Signs: History shows that when markets experience sharp moves—either a dramatic drop or an explosive rally—pullbacks often follow. These pullbacks are driven by strong follow-through candles that signal renewed interest and participation from market players. Such formations act as the market’s way of hinting at a potential reversal or retracement. The Current Scenario: Right now, the price action is falling short of these historical signals. The market has yet to produce the kind of decisive, bullish candle that would suggest a meaningful reversal. The recent candles lack strength, structure, and conviction, leaving the prevailing trend intact. Why It Matters: In trading, patience is a superpower. Jumping into the market without confirmation from strong signals can be costly. At this point, staying on the bearish side is the smarter move. Let the market speak—wait for that bold, unmistakable bullish candle to confirm the tide is turning before considering a shift in strategy. On the Flip Side: However, if the bulls do take charge, we could witness a substantial upside movement. A strong, decisive bullish move would signal a shift in momentum, potentially leading to a significant rally. This could present an excellent opportunity for those ready to ride the bullish wave when it materializes. The Bottom Line: Stay aligned with the bearish trend for now, but remain vigilant. A strong bullish candle could unlock a major upside, so keep an eye on the market for any signs of a shift. The key is to let the price action confirm the next move before committing to a new direction!
FX:NAS100
by shazfit