NASDAQ TODAYToday is a calm day for US100 until the 3:30 PM pull ;
today, it seems like it ll be going down after a lot of hesitations, a lot of reticence to get over 21K ;
we managed to get the descent the other day (orange lines), today seems like either a big pull out, going towards 22K, but pretty unlikely to happen, or a big drawdown like that, reinitializing RSI for the next rally.
Nasdaq
NASDAQ testing the MA50 (4h). Buy signal if broken.Nasdaq is on a slow rebound following the test of the long term Buy Zone, right over the MA50 (1d).
Today it hit the MA50 (4h) and so far it is struggling to close above it.
On all prior bottoms, once the MA50 (4h) broke, it issued a bullish confirmation.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy when the price crosses above the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 21450 (the 1.236 Fibonacci extension).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is also rebounding after a 30.00 test. Also consistent with all prior bottoms. This is an additional buy signal.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
Tech on the Edge: SMH vs. QQQ Signals Caution Amid Bull MarketIntroduction:
While we remain enthusiastic about the strength of the current bull market, emerging signs of stress in capital flows warrant a closer look, particularly in the tech sector. One key metric to monitor is the ratio between semiconductors (SMH) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). This ratio acts as a barometer for tech sector health: when SMH outperforms QQQ, it indicates a risk-on environment; conversely, QQQ outperforming SMH raises caution flags.
Analysis:
Tech Sector Barometer: The SMH-to-QQQ ratio has historically been a reliable indicator of momentum in the tech sector. Outperformance by SMH reflects strong demand for semiconductors and broader tech health, while underperformance signals potential concerns.
Emerging Concern: Currently, we’re observing the potential development of a rounding top formation in the SMH-to-QQQ ratio. While this formation isn’t confirmed, a breakdown below key support would validate it, signaling broader weakness in the tech sector.
Critical Inflection Point: For now, chip bulls must take control and push this ratio higher to maintain sector strength and prevent a broader pullback in the market. Failure to do so could signal a shift in sentiment and increased vulnerability in tech stocks.
Conclusion:
The SMH-to-QQQ ratio is at a critical juncture, with the potential to dictate near-term momentum in the tech sector. While the bull market remains intact, any confirmed weakness in this ratio could signal broader vulnerability in tech stocks. Will chip bulls step up to defend the sector, or are we on the cusp of a pullback? Share your thoughts below!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SMH-to-QQQ ratio, the potential rounding top formation, and key support levels)
Tags: #Semiconductors #Nasdaq #TechSector #SMH #QQQ #MarketTrends #TechnicalAnalysis
Short time, target 138Following daily chart.
I am posting a couple of hours before earning.
First, I don't believe the earnings will be good enough to push the price more. Also, I am following 3 different power indicators, which all gave me a short signal.
In this case, I want to use 2 different Fibonacci levels for the target, The first one is a long run from august, the other one is a short run, and both targets are around 137 for me.
TP 138
SL 147 - stop under 147 candle close.
Btw I see the same pattern in Amazon and SPX, so I am short in both 3 of them.
What do DJI, SPX and NDX have in common?Well the obvious answer is that they are Major USA indices and they also share some of the big players as stocks which make up their composite Indices.
My answer the Question...
The beauty of Trading View is the ability to combine all sorts of aspects of trading information together, whether it be writing new scripts, combining indicators or in my case combing major indices together in Logarithmic view to get a new way of future price discovery (for SPX & NDX) by looking backwards or left at price structure on the next highest valued Indice.
As we know A.T.M all 3 Indices are at A.T.H's so at some point in the near future there will be a move higher into new price territory. The question then is where is the price target? Where is the next resistance level when there is no price structure to the left on that Indice?
What I noticed historically about these Indices is that past price structure (major highs and lows) from the higher valued Indice (Mostly DJI) is horizontally plotted forward into the future onto the lesser valued Indice. Like looking left historically at an instrument with a lot of data for support and resistance levels.
Obviously with DJI being the highest dollar value Indice and it also moving higher past its all time high at some point into unknown price territory, we will have to rely on its own price structure for support levels or Fibonacci levels for clues about were price will find resistance levels in the future.
On SPX and NDX though we have a different story. As these 2 Indices move higher into unknown price territory with no price structure of their own to the left looking back, we can use the past price structure of the higher dollar valued Indice (DJI) market highs and lows to assess future levels of resistance or to find future price targets.
With SPX we will be able to use NDX and also DJI to find future higher price targets and resistance.
With NDX we will be able to use DJI to find future higher price targets and resistance.
Some examples,
If you pull up these 3 indices on a line chart yourself you will find that with NDX and SPX the support levels for the Dotcom and GFC crash's were DJI's historical price structure levels from 1961-1981. $731-$965.
If you look at SPX the present high and previous equal high on 01/2022 you will find it is mirrored in price structure on NDX 2015-2016 period and that the 2000 Dotcom peak is acting as a support level $4380 for present SPX price structure. NDX 01/2022
If you go way back in time to the 1930's Great depression market crash you will find the Aug 1929 SPX high $32.50 was in fact a resistance level which became support level for DJI back in 1898 and 1903 respectively.
The major past Cycle Highs on the higher valued Indice prior to recession tend to be the resistance levels for for future highs on the lower valued Indices. Or resistance levels that were broken and became support on DJI became resistance dollar value levels for SPX and NDX.
It is obvious that vertically this 3 indices would show similar reactions to market shocks but I'm not quite sure why horizontally there are so many matching price support and resistance levels.
This is a Monthly Chart over a 130 year period so the levels are harder to see and not precisely dollar accurate but if you use a weekly or daily chart you will see the levels line up very well.
So, obviously in my head I'm wondering what the heck is happening here exactly?
Some of these older levels have played out over 50-60 years into the future on DJI to the SPX and NDX, more recently the time frame is reducing to around 10-20 years.
Fibonacci levels also work on this chart going from lowest value Indice at a recession low to next business cycle high on highest value Indice.
Maybe W.D Gann could explain this accurately for me....Like is there some sort of Fractal playing out here or do the Wall street crew already use this method or is it the madness of the crowd echoing forward through time unwittingly expressing human emotion into charts of financial greed and fear? Who knows? I'd like to hear Traders ideas about this phenomena.
S&P500 INDEX (US500): One More Bullish Confirmation
S&P500 leaves one more bullish clue after a recent test of a daily support.
This time, the price managed to violate a resistance line of a falling
parallel channel.
With a high probability, the index will reach 5954 level soon.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
NVIDIA Q3 earnings exceed expectations, but stock price falls
Nvidia's third-quarter earnings surpassed market expectations. The EPS stood at 81 cents, notably higher than the market consensus of 75 cents. Total sales reached almost $35 billion, exceeding the forecast of $33 billion. This impressive performance was highlighted by a remarkable 94% increase in total sales compared to last year's period, alongside a robust 106% surge in net profit.
Despite delivering a solid third-quarter performance, Nvidia's stock price took a hit. This drop occurred as the company's fourth-quarter sales guidance fell short of Wall Street's elevated expectations. The market had projected Nvidia's fourth-quarter sales to reach $37.5 billion, but the company revealed that it would instead be at $37.1 billion.
NVDA has fallen slightly since the earnings announcement and remains around 146.00. However, the price still remains within the ascending channel, indicating momentum. If NVDA sustains an uptrend within the channel, the price may gain upward momentum toward the 150.00 high. Conversely, if NVDA breaks below the channel’s lower bound, the price may fall further to 138.30.
NVDA Predictive Modeling Outlook : Pre Earnings 11-20-24I thought I would have a little fun with my ADL Predictive Modeling system.
This shows the Daily & Weekly predictive results for NVDA prior to the earnings data release.
Have fun.
This is really just to show you how the ADL system works and to test the outcome related to NVDA's earnings/outcome.
Get some..
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
PAIN REFORM Breakout Trade in Action!PAIN REFORM Trade Details:
A breakout in Pain Reform on the daily timeframe offers a promising long trade setup using the Risological swing trading indicator . Entry levels have been clearly identified, and the stock shows strong bullish momentum as it heads towards its profit targets.
Key Levels:
Entry: 1.32
Stop Loss (SL): 0.88
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.88
TP2: 2.77
TP3: 3.66
TP4: 4.21
PAIN REFORM Analysis:
The chart signals a strong trend reversal, with the breakout confirming bullish sentiment. The risk-to-reward ratio appears favorable for this trade setup, and the stock is poised for further gains as it moves towards higher targets.
Outlook:
Monitor closely for momentum follow-through. With a robust breakout, the targets look achievable given sustained market interest and volume spikes.
Stay disciplined with stops to lock in profits!
Aclaris Rockets 300%, Smashes Targets!ACRIS (1D TF): Targets Smashed with 300% Gains!
Trade Details:
The long trade setup on the daily timeframe has exceeded expectations, blasting past all profit targets using the Risological Trading Indicator . The stock has delivered an impressive 300% gain, outperforming initial forecasts.
Key Levels:
Entry: 1.20
Stop Loss (SL): 1.16
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.25 ✅
TP2: 1.32 ✅
TP3: 1.40 ✅
TP4: 1.45 ✅
Analysis:
This massive rally showcases strong bullish momentum, driven by high market interest. With such a breakout, Aclaris demonstrates its potential as a high-performing asset.
Outlook:
Momentum traders can consider monitoring for retracements or further bullish setups. A stellar move like this reinforces the power of spotting trends early!
The Rally May Run Out of SteamFundamental Background
According to CNBC, analysts at Morgan Stanley have conducted a study on how the tariff plans announced by Donald Trump during his campaign might affect the U.S. economy and the stock market.
Among the initiatives of the president-elect:
Implementing a general tariff of 10% to 20% on all imported goods;
Introducing additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on goods imported from China.
According to Seth Carpenter, the chief global economist at Morgan Stanley, such plans:
May eliminate the possibility of interest rate cuts in 2025 and also limit economic growth;
Threaten to reduce U.S. economic growth by 2026;
Will lead to increased inflation;
Will put pressure on the automotive industry, consumer electronics, machinery, construction, and retail sectors. It is expected that the costs to manufacturers will be passed on to consumers.
Consequently, this implies a negative outlook for the U.S. stock market as there is a high likelihood that the tariffs will reduce investment attractiveness and increase the cost of borrowing for companies, negatively impacting the stock market.
Technical Analysis
In 2024, the price formed a broad ascending channel (shown in blue);
Throughout October, the price was "magnetized" to the median line and formed a narrower channel between the Resistance and Support lines;
Against the backdrop of the presidential elections, the price surged to a peak on November 11th, but then returned to the median line.
The line around 20,941 level briefly acted as support, but the price failed to sustain above it. Could the bears' attempt to break away from the median line's pull be more successful?
Cyclical Analysis
Cyclical Chart Predicts a Decline in the Nasdaq Index
Conclusions
While the chart currently shows no clear signs of bearish activity, the facts presented above suggest that the vigorous bull market observed throughout 2024 may run out of steam.
What's Happening With Nasdaq100So as y'all know nasdaq had a big correction this year and in the same year a new ath (all time high). However, her structures are very chaotic hence the back n' forth compared to previous years.
She’s struggling at the 11th if july previous resistance and if broken then we up if not, the fall to balance things might just be a possibility. There's a trendline channel she's still in and it has been tested a lot. A 20800-850 break is all we need.
new maintained support at: 20316.
What's your take?
Amazon: Riding the E-Commerce and Cloud WaveAmazon is currently showing promising signs as it forms the right side of its base, presenting an excellent setup for long-term investors. With strong revenue streams from e-commerce and Amazon Web Services (AWS), the company remains a dominant force in multiple sectors. This diverse business model positions Amazon for sustained growth, even amid market fluctuations.
Technical Overview:
Recent price action shows Amazon bouncing off a strong support level around $182.38 , with its 21-day EMA acting as a key indicator of momentum. As it approaches the $200 mark, investors should keep a close eye on these critical levels.
Profit Target: Initial target at $201.20 , with further potential upside to $210 if momentum continues.
Stop Loss: Set just below the $182.38 support level to manage risk.
Indicator Insights:
Using tools like the MTF Squeeze Analyzer - and MTF SqzMom , we notice a squeeze firing on multiple lower timeframes, signaling that volatility is likely to increase. The 4Hour and Weekly timeframe shows a build-up in momentum, suggesting that this could propel Amazon toward the $200+ range. Monitoring these momentum shifts provides an edge in timing entry and exit points for the trade.
Momentum and Market Overview:
With the Larry Williams Valuation Index Indicator, we observe steady momentum on both the daily and weekly charts, supporting a positive outlook. The readings show consistent strength in Amazon’s price action. Notably, the stock has not yet reached its overvalued level , signaling a fair entry point for buyers. This provides confidence that Amazon is trading within a favorable range, with the market continuing to support buying interest.
Additionally, the general market is in an uptrend, as confirmed by the IBD Market School , with 100% exposure currently active and the Power Trend ON . This signals a favorable environment for growth stocks like Amazon.
Final Thoughts:
This trade idea leverages both fundamental strength and technical precision, supported by our indicators available in the TradeVizion toolset. By combining a clear understanding of Amazon’s market dominance with insights from these smart tools, this setup offers a well-rounded opportunity for both short-term gains and long-term growth.
Feel free to explore our scripts, designed to enhance your market understanding without overwhelming you with unnecessary complexity. Whether you’re trading breakouts or managing risk, having the right tools in your corner can make all the difference.
USTEC rose after avoiding Lutnick as a Treasury Secretary
The Nasdaq index has surged, fueled by solid expectations surrounding Nvidia's Q3 earnings and the alleviation of uncertainty following the appointment of the new Treasury Secretary.
Investors are breathing a sigh of relief as Howard Lutnick, a staunch supporter of Trump's tariff policies, has been nominated for Commerce Secretary rather than Treasury Secretary. In contrast, Kevin Warsh, who is running for Treasury Secretary, has openly criticized protectionist measures such as tariffs. This shift has heightened expectations that some economic issues stemming from Trump’s tariff policies will be mitigated.
Furthermore, Wall Street consistently raises Nvidia's target stock price. Investors anticipate that Nvidia's Q3 earnings will surpass market consensus, and Wall Street confidently anticipates that the Q4 guidance will also exceed expectations.
USTEC briefly tested the support at 20300 and rebounded to 20770. The index sustains upward momentum, holding above the trend line. If USTEC sustains its upward trend above the resistance at 20700, the index could gain upward momentum toward the 21250 high. Conversely, if USTEC fails to hold above the trend line and 20300, the index may fall further to 19950.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 19 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None. Tomorrow is Nvidia Earnings release
Directional bias - BUY (read yesterday's post entitled "Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 18 Nov 2024" for more insight into today's directional bias and swing trade entry)
Yesterday I opened a swing trade at the B. hand icon.
My mental stop was placed at the thick pink line.
Wow....what a day, what a draw down!
But held throughout and I am now 1'300 pips in the profit with a big position and secured at entry i.e. trading risk free.
Here's the reasoning for holding and also where I would have entered today if I had not had a swing trade going:
Holding swing trade:
As is evident from the 1H chart, a huge red candle closed below my mental stop. In normal trading i.e. day trading I would have closed my trade.
But in this instance I entered a swing trade based on the 4H TF. On normal day trading days, I enter on much lower TF and judge how candles close against my mental SL on much lower TFs.
As a rule, if candles start closing below my mental stop, I would close.
But over the years I have also learnt that the time frame you enter on, is the TF you should judge if you want to close your trade. In other words, if I enter on a 4H TF, then in theory I should only close my trade if 4H candles start closing below my mental stop. This is very hard (especially because Nasdaq that can spike thousands of pips at a time). But over the years, as I have grown my account and gained experience, I have been able to hold fast on this observation.
And so, as can be seen on the 4H TF, a 4H candle did not close at my mental stop.
This draw down had me sweating bullets and if I had my position sizing wrong I could easily have bust my account on a 2'700 pip drawn down (esp because I trade with a 500 leverage). I was also nearly in panic mode because the news is full of stories regarding the Ukraine Russia War escalation. So I am pleased that I held my cool, stuck with my trade plan and didn't panic close my position at a massive loss.
Whether it was luck or truly my past "observation", I thank my lucky stars that price ultimately went my way.
Entry point for today:
I did not add another position today because my exposure was already at the max.
But if I hadn't had my swing trade going, I would have entered on the 1H TF at the smiley icon (because the move down was really strong, so I would have looked for confirmation on a higher TF)
Also the 1H DB formed on the strong Weekly support.
Now we need to see if price can break through the strong sell fib levels and I am hoping Nvidia earnings will help with that.
Hope you had a good trading day! Over and out!
P.S. Note how price exactly respected the market pattern profit target theory market at C. (i.e. that price will move the same distance as the height of the market pattern, once the market pattern in broken). Price formed a rising wedge on the 4H TF and then broke downwards and moved the exact distance down as the height of the market pattern.
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss