Weekly Leading Indicators: BEARISHManaged to streamline down to these couple of charts for a set of leading indicators. Simple trend analysis and techincals are being used here for Weekly charts and so weekly analysis is appropriate to set the stage for a top down view.
First up (on the top right corner) is the Combined US equities chart that shows a strong marubozu the previous week (from elections outcome). However, the following week was not a confirmation, but instead casts doubt on the sustainability of the spike to rally on.
Point being, the massive breakout is met with a Dark Cloud Cover that breaks back into the Decision Box (purple box) which was previously marked out for the consolidation range boundaries. Typically when a breakout is followed by a breakin, it tends to follow through to the other end... a break down from the box support. Yellow circle is where it should go through or bounce at.
What gives on this is that the following Leading indicators are eluding to...
SG10Y Govt Bond Yields
The uncanny correlation of this to the US Equities Indexes is remarkable and have been a hallmark of my recent posts and analyses. Here we have a breakout of the trendline resistance. Means equity markets are going Bear.
RED Flag
High Yield Bonds ETF (JNK)
JNK looks to break the uptrend trailstop line, with a lower high that now has a Dark Cloud Cover as well.
AMBER Flag
TIPS and TLT
Both have broken uptrend trailstops and are downtrending with a recent low. These are well known market leading indicators.
RED Flags
Semiconductor ETF (SOXL)
Noted, and personal favourite, SOXL is clearly bearish from simple candlestick patterns.
RED Flag
So, overall, we have Leads telling us it is BEARISH again.
Heads up!
Nasdaq
QQQ - Breakout or Fakeout?Finally, some action after a very boring month or so of being range bound. The lack of a contested election provided a major boost to tech the last two days :) Now, the question is if this rally is a true breakout above the trading channel that has confined QQQ for most of the last 14 years or so (minus the COVID bubble) or if it is just a fake out.
GBPCAD RE TESTINGThe potential downtrend in the GBP/CAD currency pair may be influenced by several critical factors. The Bank of Canada's relatively hawkish monetary stance, supported by strong economic data, contrasts with the Bank of England's cautious approach due to slowing UK economic growth. Declining global oil prices could limit the downside for the Canadian dollar, as Canada is a major oil exporter. On the technical side, GBP/CAD has recently tested key support levels, and failure to hold these levels may signal further bearish momentum.
EURCAD GONE !The EUR/CAD currency pair has recently shown an upward trend driven by divergent monetary policies, with the European Central Bank maintaining a hawkish stance while the Bank of Canada adopts a more cautious approach, increasing euro demand. Declines in oil prices have weakened the Canadian dollar, given Canada's reliance on oil exports. Technical indicators reveal breaches of key resistance levels, signaling sustained bullish momentum. Traders should monitor economic data, oil price trends, and central bank communications closely to adjust their strategies accordingly.
USDCHF HEAD AND SHOULDERSThe USD/CHF currency pair has recently exhibited a downward trend, driven by several key factors. Macroeconomic uncertainties, including global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions, have increased demand for safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc, putting downward pressure on the pair. Divergent monetary policies, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance while the Swiss National Bank adopts a more neutral approach, further contribute to the pair's decline. Technical indicators also suggest bearish momentum, with breaches of significant support levels and potential moves below key moving averages. Traders should closely monitor economic data and central bank communications to inform their strategies.
+ head and shoulders = going down
GBPUSD FREE FALLThe GBP/USD currency pair has recently exhibited a downward trend, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions and global growth concerns, leading investors to favor the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. Divergent monetary policies, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance and the Bank of England adopting a more cautious approach, have further pressured the pair. Technical indicators show breaches of key support levels like 1.2842, signaling a continuation of the bearish trend. Traders should closely monitor economic data and central bank communications to adapt their strategies.
NEW NASDAQ ROUTEThe potential drop in the NASDAQ in the coming days could be driven by several key factors. First, macroeconomic uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions or the persistence of high interest rates, could increase market volatility. Additionally, recent disappointing quarterly earnings from major tech companies, which are often heavily weighted in the index, add downward pressure. Lastly, technical signals such as the breach of critical support levels or a decline below the 50-day moving average could trigger accelerated sell-offs. Investors should closely monitor these indicators to assess risks and adjust their portfolios accordingly.
EURUSD NEXT MOVEAfter a downtrend, the fundamental lines of this asset tend to show, as BTC, a new bearish position ready to launch ;
however the downtrend might still attract the price down, causing more of a zigzag kinda pattern, only time will tell ;
these arrows show the change of direction the price is taking about now.
NZDJPY RIGHT NOW !!!NZDJPY reached the point of decision ;
according to previous data, it should reverse right now in a huge V pattern, and then correct to return back up then ;
however stay advised, nothing is never sure, but this seems like a great trade to get into right now ;
the SL would be placed just under the yellow trend line, around 90.600.
NASDAQ blowoff top?!!The stock market has been rallying for approximately 758 days, fueled by optimism and liquidity. However, I believe that within a few months or weeks, the current bull run could reach its conclusion, even in the presence of quantitative easing measures.
This expectation stems from signs of diminishing momentum, overextended valuations, and potential macroeconomic headwinds that may outweigh the effects of monetary stimulus.
BTCUSD | Trade idea
BTCUSD Performance: BTCUSD pulled back after reaching a minor top around $65,000, hitting a high of $65,103 and currently trading around $62,500.
Rate Cut Probability: The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September increased to 71.50% from 71% a week ago (CME Fed watch tool).
BTC ETF Inflows: BTC ETF saw an inflow of $202.51 million, with BlackRock attracting $224 million.
US Markets: NASDAQ, which has a negative correlation with BTC, is bearish but neutral for BTC. NASDAQ is trading weak ahead of Nvidia earnings; a close above 20,000 could push it to 20,500.
USNAS100 - Dropped and still Running!Technical Analysis:
The price has declined by approximately 1.75%, as previously indicated.
Currently, it is approaching 20,705. A confirmed 1-hour candle close below this level is required to sustain the bearish trend toward 20,550.
Alternatively, breaking above 20,860 could shift the momentum to bullish, targeting 21,070.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 20780
Resistance Levels: 20860, 20980, 21170
Support Levels: 20670, 20550, 20330
Trend Outlook:
Bearish below 20780 and 20700
previous idea:
MORE ACCURATE ROUTE FOR GOLDour idea is still valid but needs a little bit of clarification : we thought gold would follow some kind of round top pattern ;
now it seems like a 3/4 tops and a HH, then a drawdown to 2500s by next week.
However it will come back up at some point soon, around the beginning of 2025, so stay advised and don't try to sell it under 2500.
USDJPY UPMaybe a little too optimistic on the detail precision, but this should turn out like that at some point tonight and tommorrow ;
USD has been on a big rally lately thanks to Trump and is not done yet, now is still the time for USD products to go high ;
however there could be a massive correction soon with VIX and GOLD going back up, but not for another week or more.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 14 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - PPI and Initial jobless claims
News - None
Directional bias - Not sure, morning analysis should guide
Morning analysis:
M TF - Still very bullish, this months candle is up 10'700 pips but still 15 days till candle close. This shows that on the highest level, Nas is very bullish.
W TF - At time of writing this morning, candle is red. The red body is about 1500 pips. This indicates short term bearish bias. Look at last week's candle close, which closed at an all time high after breaking a very strong W resistance, it is reasonable to expect price to retrace.
D TF - Price action is showing that price is stalling. There are very long wick candles for 4 days, which represent the struggle between bulls and bears. As candle bodies are red, we see that bears are slowing managing to push price lower and lower. The way candles look at time of writing, I view this TF to be bearish.
4H TF - Shows a choppy market. There are no clear higher highs and higher lows or lower high and lower lows. Price is spiking widely in either direction, again representing the intense battle between bulls and bears. Three things are clear though, bulls have been unable to break the 0.618 SELL fib level (fib drawn from swing high at B. to swing low at A.). Bulls have been unable to break the 4H H&S neckline upwards. And lastly, up until yesterday, the 4H EMA was acting as dynamic support with bears being unable to break through downwards. But now this morning we have a clear 4H candle close below the EMA and if the 7am 4H candle closes below the EMA again, it shows that bulls were unable to push sellers back up at this level.
1H - Price is in a very bearish position. The 4H and 1H EMA are now above price and can be expected to act as dynamic resistance. The daily pivot point is also above price. Bulls will have to step in with volume and momentum to be able to break through these stacked resistance levels.
Directional bias - looks very bearish. If 4H candle closes at a lower low beneath the 4H EMA, I would consider a sell. Otherwise if a DB forms on the 1H TF and breaks the neckline and subsequently the 1H and 4H EMA, I will enter a buy.
No set bias today because TF showing bearish bias, while M TF is still bullish. It's also concerning that good CPI news was not enough to break through the sell fib levels.
I will let price action indicate what Nasdaq wants to do today.
As the day progressed:
So indeed the 7am 4H candle closed below the EMA. I did not enter a sell because I noted that the candle closed exactly at the 100 EMA of the 1H TF (marked with the thick blue line). It can be seen that this EMA has provided dynamic support to 3 candle touches before at A, C and D..
So in an effort to avoid repeating yesterday's mistake (of buying at resistance), I didn't want to sell at dynamic support. So moving down to the 5min and 15min TF after this candle closed, it was clear that price could not break this support and I did not enter a sell.
Then....
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - a DB formed on the 1H, with the neckline broken upwards. The break of the neckline was with a huge momentum candle breaking both the EMAs (1H EMA and 4H EMA - at time of entry the 4H EMA was in the position as marked by the purple line)
2. S&R - Pivot point broken
3. Trend - Temporary downtrend (marked in blue broken)
4. Fib - DB formed below the 0.618 fib level
Mental SL placed at half the height of the DB that I entered in on.
Unfortunately, price came back down and I close my position at my stop loss.
Decided to be out for the day.
What could I have done differently?
Losses are inevitable in trading. They will happen, whether you like it or not. The only question is....are you happy with your loss or not.
I am happy with this loss. I entered on good confirmations and I also entered with half my usual position size because my plan was to enter the other half position if price re-tested the neckline of the DB and moved up again.
So by entering small I managed my risk.
I have had this experience before where I enter on a high TF (1H) DB and price still moves down. This happened when Nas was making bigger TF retracements.
Also, at time of writing (tonight) the D candle has a long red body. If it closes with a long red body...it means we are entering a waterfall situation where price is pushing down with bigger and bigger candle bodies, gaining momentum.
Nas turning very bearish. Will need to consider my directional bias carefully tomorrow and only enter buys on 4H DB or 1H DB if the neckline has been re-tested and price then still moves up.
Hope you caught the nice sell!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
USDJPY - 3 Massive Swings Completed. 4th Swing Ready...USDJPY has been providing us with big swing opportunities. Our last public post resulted in a 1200pip take profit!
We are now on the verge of getting our 4th big swing setup.
We are in a 5 wave impulse at the moment, indicating that we are in a Wave A (of wave 2) as opposed to a wave 2. This is why we are anticipating price to create an abc correction for wave 2 in the form of 535 zigzag.
Trade Setup:
- Watch for rejection of the fib level
- Confirmation can be the break of the red trendline or any other reversal signs such as BOS
- Targets: 148 (950pips), Hold position and taper as we move lower
We'll update this setup if we get enough engagement.
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
Trade 1:
Trade 2:
Trade 3:
Trade 3 VIP Setup:
Agape ATP Corporation (NASDAQ: ATPC) Q3 Results AnalysisAgape ATP Corporation (NASDAQ: ATPC) is progressing through a strategic gestation period, investing in key areas to drive long-term growth. While Q3 2024 saw a slightly higher net loss compared with Q3 2023, these numbers reflect ATPC’s commitment to building its foundation for sustainable growth.
Revenue reached $331,289 for the quarter and $962,971 for the nine months, slightly down year-over-year, as the company realigns its product offerings and marketing strategies to capture new market segments.
A significant contributor to ATPC’s current resilience is its complementary health therapies sector, which showed a revenue increase to $227,249 for the quarter and $688,415 for the year-to-date, reflecting demand for health services that align with wellness trends.
To further diversify, ATPC’s new venture in renewable energy—spearheaded by ATPC Green Energy Sdn. Bhd. (AGE)—positions the company within a high-potential sector committed to environmental sustainability.
Despite the current challenges in its network marketing segment, ATPC’s focus on refining this channel and expanding its product range indicates a proactive approach to overcoming temporary setbacks.
As ATPC completes this foundational phase, its broadening scope in wellness and green energy promises a strengthened and more versatile position in the market, setting the stage for a promising trajectory.
Nasdaq 100 Consolidates Near Record High: Is a 22,000 Target NexThe U.S. presidential election has sparked optimism also in the stock market, with the technology index rising by 1,000 points.
Following this new all-time high, the Nasdaq 100 ( PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 ) is now consolidating just below that level.
This consolidation is taking the shape of a flag pattern, which could signal potential for further upward movement.
A breakout to the upside would confirm this pattern and could set the stage for additional gains, with a target of 22,000 points.
BTC BEARISHCorrection from yesterday : BTC is clearly going down for now ;
as it is not a real asset indexed on some real currency (even though it is really strong of course), it does not follow the same logical paths as gold and nasdaq, so it is really tough to know;
bears are starting to take over for BTC, and it might be the beginning of a slow fall for bitcoin.