Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 16 Dec 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None, FOMC this Wednesday
News - None
Directional bias - BUY, Nasdaq is bullish overall so want to trade with the trend - "The trend is your friend".
Morning analysis:
M TF - Very Bullish, large green candle in formation
W TF - Very Bullish, large green candle in formation
D TF - Friday's candle closed in a rough doji candle formation which could signal that bulls are running out of steam to push price higher. But the candle did close green higher than the previous D highest candle close. So bulls did manage to break the resistance of the previous Day's highest close. I took this to be a bullish signal.
4H TF - Price gapped up as extended hours started trading today. Bulls pushed upwards and when I opened my charts there were a few red candles on the 1H TF.
1H TF - Noted a temporary downtrend line formed (marked in turquoise).
Noted 2 x interest areas / areas of confluence (marked in green highlight):
1. Top green area = 1H + D + 4H fib levels + Day pivot point. This represents time frame confluence and a great area of reversal.
2. Bottom green area = 4h EMA (at some point this morning, it has now moved due to passage of time) + 4H + D 0.618 fib level.
4H fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.
1H fib drawn from swing low at C to swing high at D.
As the day progressed:
Price started reacting to the top highlighted green area, until a DB formed on the 15min TF, signalling that price was ready to move up.
Entered in the green candle close at the hand icon, which represents a nice momentum candle + breaking the temporary downtrend line.
Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - DB on the 15min TF = reversal pattern in the direction I want
2. S&R - DB formed above the pivot point + 1H EMA providing dynamic support
3. Trend - Temporary downtrend line broken and trade is in the overall direction of the market
4. Fib - Price reacting to 1H + 4H + D fib levels representing strong TF confluence
5. Candlesticks - DB neckline broken with a strong momentum candle on the 15min TF
Mental SL placed at half the height of the 15min DB (marked with the think pink line).
Price moved up nicely and I took partial profits at the top hand icon at 1'725 pips, which represented the TP1 of the 4H / D fib extension (as shown).
Holding the rest until candles give the indication to close eg. DT forming on the 15min TF, with neckline broken down.
Easy peasy day at my trading desk - wish every day was this easy! :)
Hope you had a good day!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Nasdaq
NASDAQ rally still has lots of upside before is tops.Nasdaq (NDX) is technically respecting the 2-year Channel Up that it's been trading in since the December 26 2022 market bottom. Its most recent Higher Low was on the August 05 2024 1W candle, which initiated the Bullish Leg we're currently in.
As you see, the previous two Bullish Legs had one main pull-back/ correction sequence each and apart from that, the majority of the Leg was technically a straight uptrend. Given that the current Bullish Leg already had a strong pull-back early on (August 26 - September 02 1W candles), it may continue to rise up to its target without another correction, assuming the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) holds.
If however it has another pull-back similar to the previous Bullish Leg (March 04 - April 15 2024), then it should rise some more near the 0.236 Fibonacci level and then pull-back.
In any event, the current level is technically a solid long-term buy entry and since both previous Bullish Legs have been around +48%, we expect to see 25300 before the current one tops.
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Tesla's Electrifying Rally: Stock Zooms to New Peaks● After facing a notable setback at the $415 mark, the stock took a dramatic plunge, dropping around 75% before finding its footing close to the $100 threshold.
● Following this, the stock entered an extended period of consolidation, eventually created a Rounding Bottom pattern.
● Recently, the stock has surpassed its previous resistance and reached all-time high.
● This breakthrough has sparked significant excitement, with optimism soaring about the stock's future growth potential.
NAS100 - Nasdaq, the only green index last week!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zones, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. The valid failure of the previous ATH will provide the conditions for the continuation of the rise of this index.
The Economist predicts that as 2025 approaches, the U.S. economy is in a highly favorable position. It expects a soft economic landing in the upcoming year, meaning the U.S. will successfully reduce inflation to its 2% target without harming economic growth. While analysts previously forecasted a recession for the U.S., Washington now stands out as the only major economy whose output exceeds pre-pandemic trends.
This year, the Nasdaq index has significantly outperformed other major U.S. stock market indices. The primary reason is the heavy weighting of tech stocks in the index. Technology stocks, particularly the “Big Seven” tech giants, have seen remarkable growth due to the AI revolution and market optimism.On the other hand, the Dow Jones index, which is more focused on industrial stocks, has lagged behind Nasdaq despite notable gains.
The United States is preparing new restrictions on AI chips to block China’s indirect access to this technology. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, these restrictions aim to prevent China from using hidden pathways to obtain AI chips. Sources familiar with the plan revealed that the U.S. intends to hold companies like Google and Microsoft accountable for managing access to advanced AI chips.
The most significant economic event this week is the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of 2024, set to be announced on Wednesday. Markets are already anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut, but attention will focus on the Fed’s policy statement and Jerome Powell’s remarks during the press conference. Traders will look for clues about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook for the upcoming year. Additionally, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, which could have a global market impact.
Key economic data on American consumer health will also be released this week. On Tuesday, the November retail sales report will provide fresh insights into consumer behavior during the holiday season. Moreover, on Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—a key inflation metric closely watched by the Fed—will be released, potentially clarifying the direction of future monetary policy.
Other important economic data include the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the S&P Global PMI leading index, both set for release on Monday. On Thursday, critical figures such as the final Q3 GDP growth rate, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, November existing home sales, and weekly jobless claims will also be published.
Analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this week, but the pace of rate cuts in 2025 is expected to be slow. Due to sticky inflation and some inflationary policies from Donald Trump, economists anticipate only three rate cuts in 2025.
The U.S. dollar has performed impressively this year, supported by the country’s economic conditions. However, Morgan Stanley analysts, including David Adams, believe buying the dollar at this point may be a mistake, as there is a downside risk for the currency. Based on their discussions, many investors expect the dollar index to rise further. Morgan Stanley argues that positive news is already fully priced into the dollar and that markets may be overestimating the speed, scope, and impact of economic measures.
GDS Holdings (GDS) AnalysisCompany Overview:
GDS Holdings NASDAQ:GDS , a leading provider of high-performance data center solutions in China and Southeast Asia, is well-positioned to benefit from the exploding demand for data centers driven by cloud adoption, AI proliferation, and digital transformation across the region.
Key Catalysts:
Capital Injection to Fuel Growth:
GDS secured an upsized Series B equity raise of $1.2 billion, led by key backers like SoftBank Vision Fund and Kenneth Griffin, reflecting significant investor confidence.
The capital will enable GDS to develop over 1 GW of new data center capacity, fast-tracking its expansion plans across its key markets.
Strong Regional Demand:
Rising data consumption and the rapid digitalization in China and Southeast Asia position GDS to capitalize on surging regional demand for premium data centers.
GDS’s established expertise and strategic partnerships further solidify its leadership in these high-growth regions.
Long-Term Revenue Growth:
The investment supports GDS’s long-term ambitions to increase scale and market share, enabling sustainable revenue and margin growth.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on GDS above the $17.50-$18.00 range, driven by its strong expansion strategy, favorable market conditions, and robust investor backing.
Upside Potential: Our upside target for GDS is $34.00-$35.00, reflecting substantial growth opportunities in data center infrastructure and the company’s ability to execute its large-scale development plans.
🚀 GDS—Expanding Capacity to Meet Surging Data Center Demand in Asia. #DataCenters #TechInfrastructure #GrowthMarkets
BTCUSD | Trade ideaBTCUSD is trading weak ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, having hit a low of $55,282 and currently hovering around $55,958.
The number of large investors holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC has reached a one-month high of 16,120, indicating that whales are buying BTC at lower levels.
BTC ETFs have experienced an outflow of $211 million, marking the seventh consecutive day of withdrawals.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has dropped to 57% from 70% a week ago.
US Markets:
NASDAQ (negative correlation with BTC): Bearish but neutral for BTC, trading weak ahead of the NFP data. A close above 20,000 could push the index to 20,500.
Technical Analysis:
BTCUSD is trading below the short-term 34-EMA and 55-EMA, as well as the long-term 200-EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating weakness.
On the daily chart, BTC remains below both short- and long-term moving averages, confirming minor weakness.
Support Levels:
Minor support at $54,000. A break below could push BTC to $53,000/$50,000/$46,000.
Bullish Scenario:
Primary supply zone: $57,000. A break above this level could confirm intraday bullish momentum with potential targets of $60,000/$61,800/$63,000/$65,000/$67,000/$70,000.
Secondary barrier: $70,000. A close above could target $75,000/$80,000.
Market Watch Can the NASDAQ Overcome Resistance or Will It Fall?The NASDAQ has been struggling to break above the $20,059.24 resistance level, facing multiple rejections in recent sessions. This repeated failure to push higher suggests a potential shift to bearish momentum, especially with broader market weakness observed this week. If the NASDAQ fails to clear this resistance, we could see it break down from its current channel, which has been intact since September 6, 2024.
If the price moves lower, the next key support levels are at $18,669.99 and $17,975.67. A breakdown below these levels could trigger further declines, and the market might follow suit with a broader selloff. These support levels are critical for any potential reversal. Keep a close eye on the resistance and support levels, as the direction here could influence the broader market sentiment in the coming weeks.
PLUG Powering Up For A Breakout?!Here I have NASDAQ:PLUG on the Daily Chart!
We can see that Monday, November 4th gave us a Very Bullish break to the Falling Resistance Price has been contained by forming the Wedge Pattern and with the Bullish Volume following the Break, gives this pattern a Bullish Bias after the strong decline since Jan. 2021.
The push for Greener and Cleaner way of Living and Transportation has the world in High Search for Electric Alternative means of fuel and along the pathway of Lithium and Rare Earth Metals is a new theory of Hydrogen powered Fuel Cells!
Currently Price is at $2.52, struggling with a Local Resistance Level after Price reached a new 4-Year Low @ $1.60, close to All Time Low @ .1155 visited in Jan. 2013. With the tight consolidation underneath the Falling Resistance followed with a Break candle and Close candle Above of the Falling Resistance, Confirms a Valid Break of said Falling Resistance and indicates Bullish Sentiment entering the market.
-Now, we must wait to see if Price decides to retest the Break of Falling Resistance around ( $2.25 - $2.20 ) and if Supported successfully, would generate a great Buying Opportunity!
-If Price does found Support here, I suspect Price we will run into Resistance @ ( $3.55 - $ 3.22 ) then will aim for the Fair Value Gap formed @ ( $5.58 - $5.14 )
Indicators:
- RSI Crossing 50
- Large Bullish Volume
GBPUSD CORRECTIONWe mis thought this one, it slipped to the lower KL but still going up ;
it might take a little longer, we can expect the objective by Monday and not tomorrow ;
be careful if it breaks this Lower KL, it s over and going down, there's no going back.
Sorry for this little error, we'll try to avoid it next time.
CHFJPY ON THE MOVECHF/JPY is showing strong bullish momentum, supported by a breakout above a key resistance level, with robust bullish candles and minimal upper wicks indicating sustained buying pressure. Earlier in the session, a liquidity sweep below a prior low triggered sell stops, followed by a swift recovery that suggests accumulation by buyers. The pair is trading above a rising intraday trendline, confirming it as dynamic support, and above the 50- and 200-period moving averages, with a golden cross reinforcing the bullish outlook. Bullish divergences on the RSI and MACD highlight strengthening momentum, while increasing volume on upward moves compared to lighter pullbacks signals strong buyer dominance and the potential for further gains.
+ testing all KL, be advised
USDCHF BULLISHUSD/CHF is showing bearish momentum, driven by a rejection at a key resistance level, with strong bearish candles and extended wicks signaling dominant selling pressure. Earlier in the session, a liquidity grab above a prior high triggered buy stops, but the subsequent sharp reversal suggests sellers are taking control. The pair has broken below an intraday ascending trendline, confirming it as resistance upon retest, while bearish divergences on the RSI and MACD indicate weakening bullish momentum. Trading below the 50- and 200-period moving averages, with a death cross forming, reinforces the bearish bias. Additionally, increased volume on downward moves compared to lighter retracements highlights strong selling interest, supporting the potential for continued downside movement.
+ testing all KL, be careful
GBPJPY BEARISHGBP/JPY is displaying bullish momentum, driven by a breakout above a key resistance level, with strong bullish candles and minimal wicks signaling sustained buying pressure. Earlier in the session, a liquidity sweep below a prior low triggered sell stops, followed by a sharp rebound that indicates buyer accumulation. The pair is respecting an ascending trendline, confirming it as dynamic support, and trading above both the 50- and 200-period moving averages, with a golden cross further reinforcing the uptrend. Bullish divergences on the RSI and MACD highlight recovering momentum, while increasing volume during upward moves compared to lighter pullbacks suggests strong buyer dominance and the potential for further gains.
+ this can go two ways : reaching the first KL or the second one just under, globally the movement will be the same
USDJPY BREAKING KEY LEVELS TOMORROWUSD/JPY is exhibiting bearish momentum after a rejection at a key resistance level, with multiple upper wicks indicating strong selling pressure. Earlier in the session, a liquidity grab above a prior high triggered buy stops, but the sharp reversal suggests sellers used this opportunity to enter short positions. The pair has broken below an intraday trendline, confirming it as new resistance upon retest, while bearish divergences on the RSI and MACD signal weakening bullish momentum. Additionally, the price is trading below both the 50- and 200-period moving averages, with a death cross reinforcing the bearish trend. Increasing volume on downward moves compared to lighter retracements further supports the likelihood of continued downside pressure.
+ if not today, Monday is the day the lower KL breaks
GBPUSD GOING TO THE SKYGBP/USD is showing bullish momentum, supported by a decisive breakout above a key resistance level, accompanied by strong bullish candles and increased volume, signaling robust buying interest. Earlier in the session, a liquidity sweep below a major support level likely triggered sell stops, followed by a sharp reversal, indicating accumulation by smart money. The pair has also respected a rising intraday trendline, bouncing off it and reinforcing the upward trajectory. Technical indicators, such as bullish divergences on the RSI and MACD, further confirm weakening bearish momentum and potential for continuation higher. Additionally, the 50- and 200-period moving averages on lower timeframes are sloping upward, with a golden cross reinforcing the bullish outlook. This setup, combined with low-volume pullbacks, suggests a strong environment for further intraday gains.
+ was going down in response to the previous liquidity levels, is now answering this by reaching the higher K levels
EURUSD GOING DOWNEUR/USD appears poised for a bearish move, supported by key technical indicators and chart structures. Price action has rejected a significant liquidity zone, suggesting strong selling pressure and the inability of buyers to hold higher levels. A confluence of resistance from a descending trendline and the 50-day EMA strengthens the bearish outlook.
On higher timeframes, a recent liquidity sweep at a key high has been followed by a sharp rejection, indicating trapped buyers and the potential for further downside. A break below the recent market structure low could trigger stop orders, accelerating the move toward the next major liquidity cluster. Watch for increasing momentum and volume as confirmation of this potential bearish shift.
+ responding to the liquidity rectangle, pushing down
AUDJPY BULLISHAUD/JPY appears poised for a bullish breakout, supported by key technical indicators and chart structures. Price action has reclaimed a significant liquidity zone, indicating strong buyer interest and the absorption of supply. A confluence of dynamic support from an ascending trendline and the 50-day EMA further reinforces the bullish setup.
On higher timeframes, a recent liquidity sweep at a key low has been followed by a strong rebound, signaling that sellers may be trapped and the market could pivot higher. A break above the recent market structure high could trigger stop orders, driving momentum toward the next major liquidity cluster. Increasing volume and momentum will be key to confirming this potential upward move.
+ testing inferior KL, aiming for higher ones
GOLD BULLISHGold appears poised for a bullish breakout, supported by key technical indicators and chart structures. Price action has reclaimed a significant liquidity zone, suggesting strong buyer interest and absorption of supply. A confluence of dynamic support from an ascending trendline and the 50-day EMA further strengthens the bullish case.
On higher timeframes, a recent liquidity sweep at a key low has been followed by a strong rebound, indicating that sellers may be trapped and the market could pivot higher. A break above the recent market structure high could trigger stop orders, fueling momentum toward the next major liquidity cluster. Watch for increasing volume and momentum as confirmation of this potential upward move.
+ precisely the contrary of NASDAQ with a little more zigzag liquidity