Nasdaq
205.05.23 nasdaq analysis
📊 Result of Yesterday’s Trading Strategy
The break of the upward support trendline triggered a sharp drop, delivering solid profits even before the U.S. session opened.
With 1 contract, this setup yielded approximately $2,000 profit, making for an early finish to the day.
📉 Current NASDAQ Situation
The Nasdaq is on the verge of breaking below the ascending trendline.
Even though it pretends to rise, it consistently gets pushed down — suggesting the bullish momentum is close to being exhausted.
Thus, I will not consider long positions today and will continue to approach the market conservatively.
Today's trading strategy:
If 21112 is broken downward, it will likely enter a corrective phase.
If that happens, I plan to continue shorting with targets down to 20827~20667.
🎯 The target range is wide because if a sharp drop does occur, the strength behind it may lead to a deeper correction, making it worth holding for the extended target.
✅ Conclusion
• It's better to focus on short strategies rather than long positions for now.
• To enjoy the weekend, taking the day off from trading might also be a smart move today.
2025-05-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears get nothing going. Everything is bought. This notion slightly changed today. We saw an increase in selling pressure and market made a decent lower high but problem for the bears is, the bull trend line held and so far we have only seen big tails below 21100. We have formed a triangle and we could see a bigger trend day tomorrow. Until the trend line breaks, I don’t think bigger shorts make sense.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21000 - 22000
bull case: Bulls defended the trend line and if bears step aside enough, we could do a new ath over the next 2 weeks. For now they are buying the dips but are too weak to push for new highs. Still most arguments are on their side as long as we are in this clear channel.
Invalidation is below 20800.
bear case: Bears need a weekly close below 20800. What are the odds of that happening? Meh. Betting on a trend line break is almost never a good strategy. It needs to happen and you have to follow. So if bears can get a strong move and consecutive 1h bars below 20900, it would increase the odds greatly of more downside. Bears still have many problems given the daily chart. The gap down is to 20300 and the daily 20ema is around 20600. So even if we break the trend line, I doubt bears will just melt through the daily ema after such a squeeze.
Invalidation is above 21600.
short term: Neutral. For now I expect more chop until one side clearly gives up again and if I had to guess, bears are more likely to step aside since we have big obvious targets above and the trend line is still valid.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year.
trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. 21400 - 21460 was the main range and both sides made money today. Only real bad trade was shorting below 21400 or buying the Globex high.
S&P 500: Consolidating & forming bull flag on support trendlineSo, we all know that the market is taking a breather, and the past week has been mostly flat (kind of). There have been plenty of headlines, some good, some bad. Most notably, the news about the Moody's US credit downgrade. I woke up one morning, took a look at LinkedIn and saw all the CFA-certified investing experts expecting a massive game-changing moment, potentially a market crash.
Except, the market hasn't responded so negatively. In fact, I'd say that while long-term yields have been rising, the market has been doing its own thing .
For instance, taking a look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 paints a different picture of the doom and gloom that I've been hearing ALL weekend and ALL week long. As you can see, the index is currently sitting on the daily support trendline which goes back to the 7th April low.
On that trendline, taking a closer look, it seems the flat price action has been forming a bull flag. It's quite narrow and tight. But it certainly is a fine-looking bull flag. And a break above that would take the S&P 500 even higher.
This would also likely have a positive effect on other indices. Furthermore, it might be worth keeping an eye on the big S&P 500 stocks that are high-beta and like to follow the market.
So, to my point about how the market has been doing its own thing...seems that the Moody's downgrade could have possibly been already priced-in. I could be wrong, of course, as markets are still quite volatile and fragile to any sort of macro and global developments about trade and conflicts around the world.
Thank you for reading.
Note: not financial advice
US30/Dow Jones Trade IdeaThis is what I believe could be cooking up currently on US30... A possible buyers control might be coming up the coming days as it looks like price is possibly heading for HTF FVG.
Remember this is just a trade idea and nothing is completely guaranteed to play out the way I'm anticipating... Following this trade idea will be on your own risk!
#us30 #dowjones #indices #nasdaq #german30 #dax
US100 Tests Uptrend: Bearish Signals Emerge❗️ US100 Bearish Alert ❗️
Technical Breakdown Incoming?
📉 The NASDAQ 100 has hit a new local low and is now testing the uptrend line.
🔴 A bearish block order has formed.
📉 RSI signals clear bearish divergence.
📉 MACD confirms momentum is fading for bulls.
🧲 A gap below is acting like a magnet for price action!
🚨 Trade Idea:
🔽 Sell US100 only on a confirmed break below 21070
🎯 TP1: 20745
🎯 TP2: 20188
📊 All indicators point to potential downside – are you prepared?
Nasdaq-100 H1 | Potential bounce off a pullback supportNasdaq-100 (NAS100) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 20,898.76 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 20,500.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 21,471.38 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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2025.05.22 nasdaq analysis🔸 Daily Chart Perspective
On the daily timeframe, we can see that the recent low was made within the demand zone, but the market began to fall just before the U.S. session closed. The Asian session appears to be in wait-and-see mode for now.
If the trend continues downward, the red box to the left suggests the possibility of a one-way bearish move. In such a case, a drop toward the 20583 area is open.
The daily 20EMA is also near that zone, and since a one-way drop occurred in the red box area before, the possibility is quite realistic.
🔸 1-Hour Chart View
On the 1H chart, the Nasdaq seems to be forming an expanding wedge.
It's hard to say that a trend reversal to the downside is confirmed yet, because price is still inside the expanding pattern.
However, since the market seems to have formed a short-term top, it gives us a sense of direction for short-term trading.
If the price enters the black box area to the left, that could be seen as a complete trend reversal.
🔸 Today’s Trading Plan
At this point, due to yesterday's sharp drop, there’s no clear buy zone visible.
Only short positions are planned for today.
Short Setup #1
Entry: On break below 21112
TP 1: 21075
Short Setup #2
Entry: On break below 21070
TP 1: 20996
Short Setup #3
Entry: On break below 20970 + trendline break
TP Max: 20830 ~ 20770
🔹 Conclusion
It looks like the trend is leaning toward the downside, but it's best to enter positions only after price breaks out of key support zones.
Going short on the Nasdaq 100CAPITALCOM:US100
The Nasdaq 100 has moved up impulsively on a 5-wave move over the past 6 weeks, which is very bullish long term. However, in the short term, it is overextended, with the RSI indicator over the 70 level.
I expect it to decline over the next couple of weeks to the area marked in the green rectangle, between the 50% and the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.
I hope you find this interesting.
Good luck to you
QQQ about to FLUSH?! Let's talk about it!I'm not saying it's over but you have to admit it does feel like we are going to see a decent size pullback...2-6% over the next few weeks on the NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY
- TVC:VIX back over 20
- US20Y hit 52 week high
- USDJPY starting to creep towards April lows
- $491.54 GAP to fill on NASDAQ:QQQ
- $447.58 Bigger GAP to fill on NASDAQ:QQQ
- Credit starting to become and issue
- Banks/ Credit companies tanked today
There is bullish pieces as well but we do look extended here and a healthy 2-6% would be welcomed...A break of $475 level spells trouble on QQQ.
Indexes Daily "Slow" Trend anticipationExpecting a Daily slowliness a.k.a. HRLR (ICT Concepts) due to the Bonds decorrelation which is bearish. Once Bonds has reached Sell Side Liquidity Target, acceleration will be seen on Indexes higher. Meanwhile "give and take" is expected on a Daily and 4h basis.
Nasdaq’s Next Move Revealed This Week – Don’t Miss the Breakout Following a strong surge at the start of the trading week, the Nasdaq reached a new high since March 26th. At this juncture, I anticipate a potential pullback before any sustained upward movement. My analysis suggests monitoring for a retracement to the New Week Opening Gap (NWOG), where price action will likely provide critical insights. I see two probable scenarios:
1. A move to the NWOG, followed by a strong bounce, potentially targeting a new all-time high, as some market commentators have suggested.
2. A weak reaction at the NWOG, leading to a breakdown below this level, with 16,000 as the next key support target.
This week's price action will be pivotal in determining the Nasdaq's near-term direction. I recommend close observation of these levels and disciplined risk management when positioning for either outcome.
A Nasdaq Black Hole - Unprecendented yes, Impossible no Before anyone says anything...yes Elliot Waves are completely subjective BUT IMHO i have drawn these correctly....
The NAS made a violent move from 22100 down 16300 in a very short space of time. So what? It will just make another ATH right?
Well, of course. It almost certainly will, the real question is when. If this pattern plays out, it won't be in 2025.
After every impulse on any timeframe, long or short, you'd naturally expect a pullback.
However, not all pullbacks are the same. Usually, the first significant pullback for a corrective wave is no more than 50%.
However, if you have a pullback that is 61.8% or more, it is usually considered an impulsive wave.
What the difference? Corrective waves have3 waves, ultimately trending in one direction, and impulsive waves have 5 waves trending in one direction.
If the Nasdaq falls beneath 20900, with increasing volume, this will signify confirmation to me at least, that we could be starting one of the most violent impulsive bearish waves in the history of financial markets.
NASDAQ: Channel Up to soon initate the new bullish wave.Nasdaq is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 67.876, MACD = 566.960, ADX = 50.516) as it is still holding the Channel Up of almost 1 month back, whose support is the 1H MA200. Right now the price is consolidating around the 1H MA50, approaching the bottom of the pattern. Once it does, we expect it to initate the new bullish wave. With the shortest one of the Channel Up being +5.90%, we remain bullish here and look towards a TP = 22,250 by early next week.
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EVLV 1WEVLV — a rectangle pattern has formed, and the 100 MA has crossed above the 200 MA, signaling the start of a potential trend reversal. Targets: $8.29 and $12.94.
As of May 2025, the fundamental outlook for Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc. (ticker: EVLV) is as follows:
The company continues to show strong revenue growth and improving key financial metrics, despite remaining unprofitable. Revenue for 2024 reached $103.9 million, up 31% from 2023, while the net loss was halved to $54 million. EBITDA improved to -$21 million from -$51.8 million the year before. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew by 39% to $99.4 million. The company maintains a strong financial position with $51.9 million in cash and zero debt.
The stock is currently trading at $4.44, above its estimated intrinsic value of $2.76 according to AlphaSpread. Analysts remain optimistic, giving EVLV a “Strong Buy” rating and forecasting an average price target of $5.31, suggesting about 19.6% upside potential.
However, investors should keep in mind that the company is still unprofitable, and the current market valuation exceeds its fundamental value.
XAU/USD: More Bullish Move Ahead? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that after our last analysis, the price dropped to $3120, and then faced strong buying pressure, pushing it back up to the $3240 area! Gold is now trading in a critical zone for trend direction. If the price manages to hold above $3233, we can expect further bullish movement. This analysis will be updated with your support!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Nasdaq-100 H1 | Pullback support at 23.6% Fibonacci retracementNasdaq-100 (NAS100) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 20,898.76 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 20,500.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 21,471.38 which is a swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
2025.05.20 nasdaq analysisDuring the European session, NASDAQ maintained a downward trend and broke below the 21187 level, as shown here:
This movement suggested a potential shift toward a bearish direction.
However, after that, NASDAQ started forming an upward trend and moved sideways. Eventually, the resistance trendline was broken in the blue box area, which you can see here:
This breakout indicated a short-term trend reversal.
The moment this trend reversal occurred coincided with the U.S. market open, accompanied by a significant surge in trading volume that led to a strong upward move.
At this point, the U.S. session closed with a new high compared to the previous pattern, suggesting that the trend has turned bullish.
However, based on the corrective action seen during the Asian session, it seems that the Asian market is not fully accepting the upward momentum.
Here is the current NASDAQ pattern:
It shows an expanding pennant pattern, with both the highs and lows widening over time.
As of now, it is highly likely that the market will continue to move with volatility in both directions until a decisive breakout occurs.
You can view the current situation in more detail here:
In terms of the upside, even though the price could theoretically reach 22000, it doesn’t hold much significance without confirmation from historical data.
Therefore, I recommend taking buy positions only if the market shows a strong inflection point similar to yesterday’s move.
Even if the recent low of 21112 is broken, the price is still within the expanding pennant pattern, and a rebound remains possible.
A conservative bearish view would only be valid if the price breaks below the previous consolidation area that formed just before the strong rally—specifically the black box range, which is around 20723–20680.
Summary:
There’s a high probability of stop-hunting in the current range.
Whether buying or selling, it's recommended to enter only when a clear setup is provided.
Don’t rely on hope that the price will return to your average entry. If the market chooses a direction during this phase, it could lead to unrecoverable losses.
This could be a highly profitable zone if handled correctly, but trading without conviction is like a drug.
Today is not the only opportunity.