Breaking: $SAIC Surged 6% In Premarket Amidst Q4 ReportsScience Applications International Corporation (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SAIC ) surged 6% in premarket trading on Monday amidst Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2025 Results.
Fourth Quarter Earnings Highlights
Q4 FY25 revenues of $1.84 billion, 5.8% organic growth(1); FY25 revenues of $7.48 billion, 3.1% organic growth(1); organic growth adjusted for divestitures
Q4 FY25 net income of $98 million, adjusted EBITDA(1) of $177 million or 9.6% of revenue; FY25 net income of $362 million, adjusted EBITDA(1) of $710 million or 9.5% of revenue.
Q4 FY25 diluted earnings per share of $2.00, adjusted diluted earnings per share(1) of $2.57; FY25 diluted earnings per share of $7.17, adjusted diluted earnings per share(1) of $9.13.
Q4 FY25 cash flows provided by operating activities of $115 million, free cash flow(1) and transaction-adjusted free cash flow(1) of $236 million; FY25 cash flows provided by operating activities of $494 million, free cash flow(1) of $499 million, transaction-adjusted free cash flow(1) of $507 million.
Q4 FY25 net bookings of $1.3 billion; book-to-bill ratio of 0.7; trailing twelve months book-to-bill ratio of 0.9
FY26 guidance introduced above prior targets for revenues, adjusted EBITDA(1), adjusted EBITDA margin(1), and adjusted diluted EPS(1).
Technical Outlook
As of the time of writing, NASDAQ:SAIC stock is up 6% in Monday's premarket trading, with the asset closing Friday's session with an RSI of 47 giving the stock more room to capitalize on this medium momentum to surge to new highs and possibly break the 1-month high pivot.
Nasdaq
QQQ Nasdaq 100 Year-End Price Target and Technical Rebound SetupIf you haven`t bought the previous oversold area on QQQ:
Now the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ), which tracks the performance of the largest non-financial companies in the Nasdaq, has recently entered oversold territory, suggesting that a technical rebound may be imminent. Similar to the Russell 2000, QQQ has experienced significant selling pressure, driving key technical indicators into oversold zones and creating favorable conditions for a bounce.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 30, a level that typically signals oversold conditions and the potential for a reversal. Additionally, QQQ is trading near key support levels, with a large portion of its components underperforming their 50-day and 200-day moving averages — a classic setup for a mean reversion rally.
From a historical perspective, QQQ has shown a tendency to rebound strongly after similar oversold conditions, particularly when macroeconomic factors stabilize and buying pressure returns. Given the current technical setup, my price target for QQQ is $550 by the end of the year. This represents a recovery of approximately 8-10% from current levels, aligning with previous post-oversold rallies in the index.
While downside risks remain — including potential volatility around Federal Reserve policy and broader economic data — the technical backdrop suggests that QQQ is well-positioned for a recovery in the coming months.
#202511 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Let’s take this from the weekly chart. Market has not dipped below the 2024-09 low but that was way too much to expect for bears. 14% down in 4 weeks straight selling is beyond unsustainable but it’s also very very unlikely that this was it and we just go up again. My thesis is a new bear trend until proven otherwise. How would bulls do that? Anything above 21100 would be too high for a retracement in a strong bear trend and it would likely fit a trading range narrative. Trading range would mean 2024-04 low at 17900 to 2024-12 ath at 22450. Bear trend is drawn on the chart and would lead to at least the 50% retracement of this bull trend since 2022, down to around 17500. When will we know? If market retraces below or to the 50% around 20400 and strongly reverses down again, I see my theory confirmed so far. For next week I can’t see anything but a big short squeeze to trap late bears. 19140 was such a weird place to reverse and I can only see this already being strong bulls buying the dip and trapping everyone who thought we were going for 19000.
current market cycle: strong bear trend but pullback expected
key levels: 19140 - 20500
bull case: Bulls have only going for them that this selling is beyond overdone and climactic and Friday' was a very strong bullish day on huge volume. My bear target was 19600 and we almost printed 19000. 20000 is the first obvious target for a pullback but I think a 50% retracement to 20700 is doable, since the daily 20ema is also at 20400. I expect the market to fight the real battle for either the new bear trend or a multi-year trading range around 20000.
Invalidation is below 19100.
bear case: Bears showed more strength and got below my measured move target of 19600 but failed above the 2024-09 low at 18867. Last time bears made this much money was 2024-07 where we corrected for 16.91% to then rally 25.59% higher over the next 19 weeks. Hand on heart I do think it’s much more likely we will see that pattern from 2024 repeated than a new bear trend. A trading range 19000 - 22450 is much more likely than going down to 16000. As of now. Can this change if the US really goes into a bigger recession? Of course but for now this is front-running the possible risk because we got up so much the past years that funds really need to secure some profits this time. For next week I have absolutely nothing for the bears. This selling is overdone and market is so much more likely to squeeze late bears, that I won’t look for any short trades until we see 20000 or higher.
Invalidation is above 21100.
short term: Heavy bullish bias for 20000 and likely 20400. Above 20500 air would get real thin again, if this was the start of a bear market. For now I think the pattern from 2024-07 is more likely to repeat than the bear trend as drawn on the chart.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We don’t know if we have printed the W1 of the new bear trend or repeat the pattern from 2024, where we sold of very strong to reverse even more strongly and make new all time highs. Market needs a bounce and around 20000/20500 we will see the real battle for the next weeks.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Updated the possible bear trend and added a bullish alternative to show what we did in 2024. For now the bullish path is more likely.
DIA ETF, just wait a little more to buy!European investors pulled money from U.S. equity ETFs in February for the first time since May 2023, showing a stark contrast with their American counterparts.
U.S. equity ETFs based in Europe recorded $514.7 million in outflows during February, according to Morningstar Direct data. This reversal came despite an increase in overall European ETF inflows to $35.3 billion during the same period.
finance.yahoo.com
Nas100 1. Market Structure & Context
The market has been in a bullish uptrend within a rising channel (trendlines).
A "Diagonal Expecting" zone suggests a potential exhaustion of bullish momentum.
A "Trend Trap" indicates a possible liquidity grab before a major move.
2. ICT Concepts Applied
Liquidity Grab & Manipulation:
The market may have engineered liquidity above the previous highs before the sell-off.
The "Sell Off" label suggests Smart Money could be distributing positions at the premium levels.
Market Structure Shift (MSS):
If the price breaks the trend trap zone with conviction, it signals a shift from bullish to bearish order flow.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) & Price Targets:
The first take-profit level at 16,529.9 aligns with an area where liquidity might rest.
The final target at 14,125.1 suggests price filling an imbalance or mitigating an order block (OB) at a lower timeframe.
3. Expected Move
Potential Short-Term Rebound:
A small retracement could occur before the major drop (blue projection).
Overall Bearish Expectation:
A strong downward move into lower levels where Smart Money may reaccumulate positions.
Conclusion
This chart is anticipating a significant bearish move after a liquidity grab at highs, with take-profit zones aligning with ICT principles like FVG fills and order block mitigation. If the market respects these areas, traders could look for confirmation (e.g., displacement, breaker structures) to enter short positions.
Tesla Stock Analysis: Nearly 50% wiped offTesla Stock Analysis: Navigating Key Support and Resistance Levels.
Tesla (TSLA) has experienced significant volatility, with its stock price retreating nearly 50% from its all-time high (ATH). The last major rally, which began on October 23, 2024, at approximately $211, propelled the stock to an ATH of $487 on December 18, 2024.
However, since reaching this peak, Tesla has been on a downward trajectory, breaching key Fibonacci retracement levels.
Recently, the stock fell below the critical 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, reaching $250 before staging a minor bounce.
Despite this rebound, Tesla is currently struggling beneath a confluence of a descending trendline and a horizontal support-turned-resistance zone, creating a challenging environment for bullish momentum.
Key Technical Factors to Watch:
📉 Bearish Pressure Below Resistance
The confluence of the descending trendline and horizontal resistance is currently capping Tesla’s recovery attempts.
A rejection at this level could reinforce selling pressure and push the stock toward retesting lower support zones.
NASDAQ (1h) Golden Cross broke above the 3 week downtrend.Nasdaq has formed a Golden Cross on the (1h) time frame while also crossing above the Falling Resistance of the last 3 weeks.
This is a bullish reversal break out.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 20370 (the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the last high).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) as already been on a Rising Support, hence bullish divergence since yesterday.
Please like, follow and comment!!
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/14/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/14/2025
📈19570 19660
📉19380 19285
Like and share for more daily NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
corrections continue
The NASDAQ 100, on the 1-hour chart, has shown notable declines in recent weeks, as reflected in the provided image. From the recent high near 19,940.0 (labeled "E"), the index has undergone a significant correction, breaking key levels and approaching critical support zones. The price is currently testing the 18,717.8 level (138% Fibonacci according to the "tag pole"), a level that could act as temporary support.
Context of the Declines
Recent declines have been influenced by factors such as macroeconomic uncertainty, including interest rate expectations and the strength of the dollar (USD), in addition to profit-taking following a previous rally. On the 1-hour chart, this corrective movement has brought the index to a confluence between the descending channel (labeled "D") and important Fibonacci levels, such as the 138% at 18,717.8 and the 100% at 18,466.7.
Possibility of a Further Downside
Given the 1-hour timeframe, the NASDAQ could extend its correction before a rebound. The next relevant support zone is located at 18,466.7 (100% Fibonacci), which coincides with a previous liquidity level (labeled "B"). If this support fails, the price could head towards 18,200, where a stronger support zone is observed (labeled "V"). The corrective structure with waves (I-IV) suggests that we are in wave IV, and a downward wave V could complete in this zone before a trend reversal. Rebound Scenario
Once the price reaches these supports, especially 18,466.7 or 18,200, we are likely to see a technical rebound. This could lead the index to retest resistance at 19,000 or even the 19,726.9 level (labeled IV) if the correction is considered complete. Traders may see reversal signals such as divergences in the RSI or a hammer pattern in these areas.
Conclusion: Keep an eye on 18,466.7 as critical support. A break below could target 18,200, but a rebound from these levels seems imminent after the current correction.
2025-03-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls can’t get anything going that’s not sold heavily. I can’t see this not closing at the lows tomorrow. The target is obvious, 2024-09 low at 18867. The tight bear channel started at 22245. This selling without any meaningful bounce is so weird and overdone, it’s hard to grasp. We went from melting higher on literally any news to not being able to close green on a week where news were all in line or not bad. I can not take this as a W1 of a new bear market where my next target is likely 18000 for W3 and 16000 for W5.
current market cycle: trading range - only daily closes below 20000 mark the end of this bull trend
key levels: 19000 - 21000
bull case: Easy as pie to write. Bulls need anything above 19800. Anything below is much more likely to that we sell hard again, since it’s not stopping. Bulls can not trap any bears and are quick to give up on any selling pressure. Best for bulls would be to stay above today’s low and make another higher low above 19165. Weekly close above 19500 would surprise me big time.
Invalidation is below 19140.
bear case: Bears are really overdoing it. A 5-10% up move is around the corner I think. Next target below is the September 2024 low at 18867, which aligns somewhat with the current bear channel. The channel is the dominant feature right now, so trade it. My base assumption for tomorrow is another try by the bulls and heavy selling into the weekend. Would not be surprised if we close the week below 19000.
Invalidation is above 19600 but bulls need something above 19800 if they want further upside. 19600 is just the break of the bear channel.
short term: Can only be neutral for now. Having a bullish bias but bulls are not doing enough for now. I wait. 20k is my first target. Nothing changed. Selling down here is not for me.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Will update this on the weekend. Bear trend has started.
trade of the day: Yeah. Globex printed the high of the day early and market could not get above it or 19600 for that matter. I thought a trading range day was much more likely and we had decent two-sided trading but bulls are running for the exists and just want out. 6 x 1h bars that struggled to stay above 19550 was the cue that we likely test down again.
Nvidia Just Under Major SupportNvidia seems to have been pulled down by the Dow just like Apple as both are just under major support. I'm sorry for my previous Nvidia chart that drew support near 140, I recognize where I screwed up, but this chart should be good. Fortunately actual 117 support wasn't that far below and my NVDA isn't too in the red.
NVDA has the lowest revenue multiple in years right now. I know it's well off it's long term trend line, but it's growth rate is unlike anything it's ever been so expecting a steeper trend line to appear makes a lot of sense. Eventually I would imagine we'll get back to that trend line, but not anytime soon.
The Dow hitting major support should finally lift NVDA and the others that have been dragged down like AAPL and AMZN.
Good luck!
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/13/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/13/2025
📈19660 19760
📉19470 19380
Like and share for more daily NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/12/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/12/2025
📈19760 19850
📉19570 19475
Like and share for more daily NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Nasdaq Hits Double Top Target – What's Next?Amid declining economic confidence and economic growth forecasts, stimulated by expanding trade wars, the Nasdaq has reached the double top pattern target formed between the December 2024 and February 2025 peaks at 19,100.
This level also aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend from the August 2024 low (17,230) to the February 2025 high (22,245).
The 19,000 barrier holds significant technical weight, as it coincides with:
The golden Fibonacci ratio and the double top pattern target.
Oversold conditions on the daily RSI, previously seen in August 2024 and dating back to similar levels in 2022 on the 3-day time frame.
Key Levels to Watch:
🔻 Downside Risk: If market turbulence intensifies and the Nasdaq drops below 19,000, the next key level is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at 18,300, with potential interim support at 18,700.
🔺 Upside Potential: If markets respond to oversold momentum conditions, a break above the short-term resistance at 19,700 could trigger rallies toward 20,000, 20,300, 20,700, and 21,000. A strong hold above 21,000 could extend bullish momentum back toward record highs.
Key Events to Watch:
US PPI Data (Today)
US-Canada Trade War Developments
US Consumer Sentiment Report (Friday)
- Razan Hilal, CMT
QQQ - Nasdaq has reached it's firstPrice reached the Warning Line 1.
This is a natural support, because it's a standard deviation stretch. From here, price has a high tendency of mean-reversion.
How far?
Most of the time it shoots back to the Lower-Medianline-Parallel.
Beware of the potential resistnace zone.
This level is a good one to take partial profits.
As for a stop, I would put it below the last swing-long. I may play it with Options (for example a Risk-Reversal), giving me more leeway to the downside if it's not playing out immediately.
US Market Reversal Emerged? This Week's Closing is CrucialThe final trading day of February. I always take the opportunity to analyze the monthly chart closely.
We saw an inverted hammer. From the cash chart, clearly, we can see the inverted hammer. Beyond that, it also appears to be a potential double top for the Nasdaq.
E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Ticker: NQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $5.00
Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
Trading the Micro: cmegroup.com/markets/microsuite.html
NASDAQ about to nuke?In my previous ideas and posts i told you about #nasdaq chart structure' s weaknesses. Well, it has already made the extended rally and the time has likely come.
In lower time frame, nasdaq, spx and dji already started dumps and broke the local supports.
In monthly candle stick size, i mean higher time frame, #nasdaq100 chart:
- Formed a huge bearish divergence
- Stoch RSI made bearish triple top
- MACD is warning about the trend reversal (Bullish to bearish)
The strong support zones in HTF are:
Monthly EMA Ribbon at 15000
Monthly İchimoku Cloud bottom at 12000
The stronghold the historical trendline support at 6000.
This strategy is NOT a SHORT TERM strategy and NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Dyor.
Just avoid being over greedy.
Should wait for the Breakout..Bearish Divergence on Weekly & Monthly TF.
However, Hidden Bullish Divergence is appearing
on Weekly TF which is actually a Positive sign.
Immediate Support seems to be around 126 - 130.
But if 140 is Sustained on Weekly basis, we may witness
further Upside around 150ish.
Best Approach would be to wait for the Rectangular Channel
Breakout.
USTEC - Short-Term Pain, but...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈Long-term, USTEC has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in orange.
This month, USTEC has been in a correction phase, retesting the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, the green zone is a strong support zone.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of support and lower orange trendlines acting as non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #USTEC is hovering around the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.