GBPJPY NEXT WEEKThe only thing we can be almost sure of for now ;
some zigzag, with a rising RSI and a growing divergence meaning the coming fall.
It could go a little higher before falling, but it is to fall at some point.
Nasdaq
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/17/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/17/25
📈 21588.5 (NEXT LEVELS: 21683, 21778, 21873,21940)
📉 21210 (CLOSER LEVELS: 21560, 21495, 21400)
1/2 way mark 📈 21495 & 📉 21400
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Nas100- Important close for the weekAfter reaching an all-time high in mid-December last year, the NAS100 began a correction characterized by choppy price action.
This Monday, the index formed a local low, aligning closely with the previous all-time high. Since then, NAS100 has rebounded strongly.
Currently, the index is testing the falling trendline originating from the mid-December high.
A breakout above this trendline could indicate that the correction has ended, paving the way for new highs and potentially a fresh all-time high in the first quarter of 2025.
I remain bullish on NASDAQ as long as Monday's low holds as a key support level.
US100 | 1H | Pending Sell Order Hey there, if you want me to keep sharing analysis like this, please don’t forget to hit the like button 🚀
SIGNAL ALERT
SELL US100 | 21,289,5
🟢TP1: 21,228,0
🟢TP2: 21,151,0
🟢TP3: 20,935,0
🔴SL: 21,569,2
Sanmina Corporation (SANM) AnalysisCompany Overview:
Sanmina Corporation NASDAQ:SANM is a global leader in advanced manufacturing solutions, offering end-to-end services from design and engineering to logistics. Serving diverse industries such as healthcare, defense, automotive, and cloud computing, the company has built a reputation for quality and innovation. Sanmina's broad industry reach mitigates dependency on any single market, ensuring stable and resilient financial performance.
Key Growth Drivers
Diverse Industry Exposure:
Sanmina serves a broad spectrum of industries, including:
Healthcare: Demand for high-quality medical devices and diagnostic equipment.
Defense & Aerospace: Focus on mission-critical electronics and systems.
Automotive: Growth in electric vehicles (EVs) and autonomous technology.
Cloud Computing: Rising demand for advanced data center and networking solutions.
This diversification ensures consistent revenue generation and reduces the impact of sector-specific downturns.
Strategic Joint Venture in India:
49.9% Stake in Reliance JV:
Sanmina's partnership with Reliance Strategic Business Ventures provides access to the fast-growing Indian market, which is a hub for electronics manufacturing and technological innovation.
This joint venture positions the company to capture significant market share in India, leveraging Reliance’s local expertise and Sanmina’s manufacturing capabilities.
Focus on High-Growth Sectors:
Sanmina's emphasis on medical, defense, and cloud computing aligns with global trends, including:
Increasing healthcare investments.
Rising defense budgets globally.
The ongoing digital transformation driving demand for cloud and edge computing solutions.
Financial Highlights and Tailwinds
Steady Revenue Growth:
Sanmina's diversified portfolio and global footprint have enabled consistent financial performance, even amid economic fluctuations.
Operational Excellence:
The company’s focus on operational efficiency, including cost optimization and technological innovation, supports profit margin improvements.
Position in Emerging Markets:
With the Indian government promoting domestic manufacturing, Sanmina’s joint venture is poised to benefit from favorable policies and strong regional demand.
Stock Outlook
Bullish Momentum Above $67.00-$68.00:
The company’s strategic positioning and exposure to high-growth sectors support a positive long-term outlook.
Upside Target: $100.00-$102.00, reflecting confidence in its ability to expand revenue and enhance shareholder value.
Institutional Confidence:
Sanmina’s strong financial foundation and growth prospects make it an attractive investment for both institutional and retail investors.
Conclusion
Sanmina is well-positioned to capitalize on its global reach, diverse industry exposure, and strategic presence in high-growth markets like India. Its focus on advanced manufacturing for critical industries ensures long-term relevance and growth potential.
📈 Recommendation: Bullish on SANM above $67.00-$68.00, targeting $100.00-$102.00.
EdTech Unicorn Stride Surges: Strong Financials Fuel Rally!The EdTech revolution is progressing rapidly! As technology advances, internet access grows swiftly, and students seek innovative learning methods, the global EdTech market is flourishing.
North America currently holds a significant 37.3% share, but regions such as the Middle East and Africa, Europe, and Asia-Pacific are gaining ground, fueled by government support, digital literacy, and a burgeoning middle class. It's an exciting time for digital learning, and there's even more to look forward to!
◉ EdTech Market Growth Outlook
➖ Valuation projected to rise from $220.5 million in 2023 to $810.3 million by 2033.
➖ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.9%.
◉ Government Initiatives Supporting EdTech Sector
The US Department of Education has allocated $277 million in new grants through the Education Innovation and Research program to enhance educational equity and innovation, particularly in areas affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, specifically focusing on STEM education and rural regions.
Recognizing the enormous opportunity in EdTech, we're examining a stock that exhibits remarkable growth potential within the sector.
◉ Company Overview
Stride Inc. NYSE:LRN is a tech-driven education service provider offering proprietary and third-party online curricula, software, and services in the U.S. and globally. Their products support personalized learning for K-12 students through virtual and blended public schools, individual online courses, and supplemental materials in subjects like math, English, science, and history. Stride also emphasizes career learning in fields such as IT, healthcare, and business, and operates tuition-based private schools. Additionally, they provide post-secondary programs in software engineering and healthcare under brands like Galvanize and Tech Elevator, along with staffing services. Rebranded from K12 Inc. in December 2020, Stride has been incorporated since 1999 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.
Investent Advice by Naranj Capital
Buy Stride NYSE:LRN
● Buy Range- 77 - 80
● Target- 115 - 120
● Potential Return- 45% - 50%
● Invest Duration- 12-18 Months
◉ Market Capitalization - $3.31 B
◉ Peer Companies
➖ Graham Holdings NYSE:GHC - $3.23 B
➖ Adtalem Global Education NYSE:ATGE - $2.67 B
➖ Grand Canyon Education NASDAQ:LOPE - $4.04 B
➖ Laureate Education NASDAQ:LAUR - $2.25 B
◉ Technical Aspects
● Monthly
➖ The stock price initially faced resistance at $40 in 2011 but later found support at $17.
➖ Despite several attempts to break through resistance, the stock experienced significant declines.
➖ However, after a 12-year period, it finally broke out and rallied to a high of $84.
➖ Currently trading at $77.7, the stock is expected to continue rising in the near future
● Daily
➖ The daily chart indicates a clear uptrend in the price movement.
➖ An ascending triangle pattern has formed, and following the breakout, the price has retraced to the breakout level.
➖ At this moment, the price is attempting to find support at the 50 EMA.
➖ From a technical standpoint, the stock is resting at a support level, making it an attractive option for accumulation with a mid to long-term investment outlook.
◉ Relative Strength
➖ The chart clearly illustrates that Stride Inc. has greatly outperformed the US Smallcap 2000 index, achieving an impressive annual return of 82%, which is a notable achievement.
◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis
● Year-on-year
➖ In FY24, revenue surged by 11.3%, reaching $2,040 million, up from $1,837 million in FY23.
➖ EBITDA saw a substantial boost, climbing to $295.3 million in FY24 compared to $225.2 million the previous year.
➖ The EBITDA margin also experienced growth, rising to 14.47% from 12.26% in FY23.
➖ Additionally, diluted EPS witnessed an impressive increase of 57.91%, jumping to $4.69 in FY24 from $2.97 in FY23.
● Quarter-on-quarter
➖ In the latest June quarter, the company achieved a remarkable milestone with quarterly sales reaching an all-time high of $520.8 million. This marks a 3% increase from the $504.9 million recorded in the March quarter and a significant 10.75% rise compared to $470.3 million in the same quarter last year.
➖ EBITDA declined from $100.2 million to $82.3 million in the latest quarter, representing a 17.8% decrease.
◉ Valuation
◉ PE Ratio
● Current PE Ratio vs. Median PE Ratio
➖ The present price-to-earnings ratio for this stock is 16.2x, which is considerably below its four-year median price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9x times, indicating that the stock is currently undervalued.
● Current PE vs. Peer Average PE
➖ The stock presents a favorable valuation when considering its Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 16.2x, which is lower than the average of its peers at 18.3x.
● Current PE vs. Industry Average PE
➖ Stride appears to be offered at a more competitive price, featuring a Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 16.2x, which is significantly below the average of 19.2x for the US Consumer Services industry.
◉ PB Ratio
● Current PB vs. Peer Average PB
➖ The present PB ratio in relation to the average PB of peers indicates that the stock is somewhat higher, with a ratio of 2.8x in contrast to the peer average of 2.6x.
● Current PB vs. Industry Average PB
➖ When comparing the current PB ratio to the industry average, Stride appears to be considerably overvalued, exhibiting a PB ratio of 2.8x, while the industry average stands at 1.6x.
◉ Cash Flow Analysis
➖ The cash generated from operations has experienced substantial growth in fiscal year 2024, increasing to $278.8 million from $203.2 million in fiscal year 2023.
◉ Debt Analysis
➖ Stride has a total debt of $528.2 million, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44.
➖ The company generates sufficient interest income to exceed its interest expenses, indicating that interest payment coverage is not an issue.
◉ Top Shareholders
➖ BlackRock Inc. holds a significant ownership interest in this company, with a notable stake of 14.9%. This level of investment reflects BlackRock's confidence in the company's potential for growth and profitability.
➖ The Vanguard Group also maintains a considerable presence, owning 10.7% of the company's shares.
➖ Together, these two investment giants represent a substantial portion of the company's equity, indicating strong institutional support and interest in its future performance.
◉ Conclusion
Upon examining Stride Inc.'s financial performance, we focused on essential metrics such as revenue growth, profit margins, and the stability of cash flow. Additionally, we assessed the company's future growth potential by looking into industry trends and the competitive landscape.
As a result, we are confident that Stride Inc. is positioned to capitalize on new opportunities while effectively navigating challenges, making it an attractive option for both investors and stakeholders.
Actionable Nasdaq insights: 17-Jan-2025Rise and shine, traders! End your week trading with actionable Nasdaq insights. Let's grow your skills together, one chart at a time.
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/16/25 MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/16/25
📈 21732.75
📉 21188.25
1/2 way mark 📈 21596.75 & 📉 21324.5
Like and share for more daily NQ levels 🤓
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
NASDAQ closed lower, facing resistance near the 20-day moving average. It struggled at the midpoint of the long bearish candle formed on January 7 (21570), which coincides with the upper trendline resistance originating from the December 16, 2023 high (22450). The market's direction—whether it breaks above the upper trendline resistance around 21500 or reverts to the center of the downtrend—remains to be seen.
On the weekly chart, a sell signal has been triggered. On the daily chart, the significant gap between the MACD and signal line suggests a higher likelihood of continued downside. However, after consolidating around the center of Wednesday's large bullish candle, the market may trade sideways for a few days before determining its next direction.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and signal line are above the zero line. After consolidating in a box range, the market may see a bullish third wave supported by the MACD holding above the signal line. Alternatively, a dead cross could form, signaling a shift to bearish momentum. For today, a range-bound strategy focusing on selling at highs and buying at lows is appropriate. Note that Fridays can often bring choppy price action.
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil closed lower after facing resistance at the upper monthly boundary. On the daily chart, the significant gap between the price and moving averages increases the risk of pursuing long positions at higher levels. If oil breaks below the 5-day moving average, the 10-day moving average or the $74–$75 range could act as support. A pullback to these levels would provide an opportunity for buying on dips.
The recent month-long rally has caused the MACD and signal line to diverge significantly above the zero line, supporting a buy-on-dip strategy during corrections. However, as mentioned previously, a sell signal has appeared on the 240-minute chart, along with MACD divergence, suggesting a higher probability of additional downside. The recent $79 rally could represent the head of a head-and-shoulders pattern, with the right shoulder acting as resistance upon a rebound. Below $76, strong support exists, so box-range trading near critical levels is recommended.
GOLD
Gold closed higher, supported by declining Treasury yields. The daily chart confirms a fully established uptrend, making it advantageous to focus on buying during pullbacks. Treasury yields, which have been inversely correlated with gold, are also showing sell signals, suggesting further downside in yields and strength in gold.
If gold breaks above the 2755 level, it could test the weekly chart resistance at 2788. However, resistance at this level may prevent the weekly MACD from forming a golden cross, leading to a consolidation phase over the next few weeks. On the 240-minute chart, strong buying momentum suggests a bullish third wave that could replicate the prior move from 2625 to 2735. With the clear daily trend and one-way price action, this is a favorable period for swing trading to maximize profits. Traders should consider this an opportunity to grow their accounts.
This week included major events like the CPI report. Next Monday, Donald Trump will officially be inaugurated as U.S. President. Given past market volatility during Trump's presidency, expect heightened price swings ahead. Always adhere to stop-loss levels and manage risks diligently. Wrap up the week well, and best of luck in your trading endeavors.
■Trading Strategies for Today
NASDAQ - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 21150 / 21090 / 21020 / 20940
-Sell: 21330 / 21370 / 21420 / 21490
Crude Oil - Bullish Market (March futures)
-Buy: 77.50 / 77.00 / 76.20 / 75.70 / 74.90
-Sell: 78.55 / 79.00 / 79.35 / 80.30
Gold - Bullish Market
-Buy: 2738 / 2729 / 2722 / 2715 / 2700
-Sell: 2757 / 2765 / 2772 / 2780 / 2788
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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OUR TRADE TODAY ON NASDAQAs I said in the previous post, I didn't share today's trades, since my clients and I focused on recovering the losses silently without sharing the trades to public.
Our entry was after we got a reversal point in which we entered and targeted the PVL inside of the liquidity zone.
Follow for more!
NASDAQ How to trade this Falling Wedge.Nasdaq is trading inside a Falling Wedge for exactly 1 month, since the December 16th 2024 High.
The current bullish wave has been rejected on its top but today is holding the MA50 (4h) so far.
The previous bearish waves that got rejected on the Wedge's top, gave a confirmed sell signal after the MA50 (4h) was crossed.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell below the MA50 (4h) and Channel Up (bullish wave).
2. Buy above the top (Falling Resistance) of the Falling Wedge.
Targets:
1. 20600 (symmetric higher lows trendline like January 2nd).
2. 21700 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is trading above its MA trendline. This favors slightly the bullish trend.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
EUR/USD : Approaching Critical Demand Zones! (READ THE CAPTION)By reviewing the #EURUSD chart in the three-day timeframe, we can see that the price has currently reached a very important demand zone, and the probability of a price reversal from this level is high! However, note that I personally have another scenario in mind, which is that after an initial short-term rise in the current area, the price will decline again to the very important demand zone of 1.005 to 1.007 , and then, with a suitable trigger in this area, we can look for an attractive BUY position !
All key levels and important zones have been marked on the chart! If you have any questions, be sure to ask, and I will try to respond as soon as possible!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
! REALLY NOT SURE ABOUT THIS ONE ! GBPJPY FALLINGSince there are no indicators except for the RSI, it would seem logical with the current drawdown and divergence for the price to keep falling ;
however there's nothing sure about this, it is just an arrow showing the potential direction,
we'll update if we get more info
AUDJPY GOING DOWNWe almost had the first part (you can take a look at the blue arrow on the 3rd of January), and it indeed reached the exact price we wanted it to (red dotted line)
However it has come back up since then, which shows that there's still a high buying volume for this asset.
But at some point, it is to come down and break the first red to reach the second lower red.
We made two possibilities for you to get the scheme.
EURUSD GOING UPLow RSI + two consecutive accumulation areas means EURUSD going up ;
however the question is after this small rally, what s happening ?
That s the 1000$ question, the two yellow lines you see on the chart show that none of these schemes is more likely than the other one, we simply have no idea for now.
We'll have to wait for new elements and KL to determine that.
USDCHF TOWARDS THE SKYThere's not a lot of indications for this one, since there's no accumulation to reach.
However the low and divergent RSI gives us an idea of where the price is globally going, which is up.
Will add more information asap, when a new interesting KL or AA (accumulation area) gets created.
