Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower after facing resistance at the 5-day moving average. As mentioned yesterday, selling at the 5-day moving average was an effective strategy, and since it touched the 5-day line during the pre-market, sell-side trades were easier throughout the day. The daily chart shows continued selling pressure with six consecutive bearish candles. As discussed, it's important to monitor the 120-day moving average support and keep an eye on a potential overshoot down to the 20,300 area.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has crossed above the Signal line (golden cross), but selling pressure persisted. While a death cross has not yet formed, if it does, it could trigger a third wave of selling. Conversely, a failure to form a death cross could lead to a rebound, potentially forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Avoid chasing sell-offs and focus on range-bound trading strategies. Additionally, today’s CPI release could cause a lower wick and a bullish reversal candle, so caution is advised.
Oil
Crude oil closed lower after facing resistance near its recent high. The $79 level remains a strong resistance zone, and the significant divergence from the moving averages makes it difficult to break above easily. Some correction was expected in this area, and while the price has pulled back, it remains far from the 5-day moving average, suggesting the potential for further declines.
The daily chart indicates support in the $75–$76 range, and a drop to this area should not be ruled out. On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal on the MACD has appeared, but there is still divergence from the zero line, making buying at major support levels a preferable strategy. Selling near $79 remains valid. Additionally, oil inventory data is scheduled for release today, which may influence the market.
Gold
Gold ended with a doji candle, forming a small range after digesting the PPI data. Today’s CPI release is expected to provide a clearer direction for the market. Recent declines in expectations for additional rate cuts have been supporting gold prices. As today’s inflation data impacts Treasury yields, gold’s direction will likely hinge on the bond market's response.
If gold forms a bullish candle today, both the MACD and Signal lines may rise above the zero line, continuing the bullish trend. Conversely, if gold closes with a bearish candle, it is likely to remain within the $2,625–$2,725 range for the time being. On the 240-minute chart, support around $2,680 is key, with the MACD potentially attempting to cross above the Signal line. Failure to form a golden cross could result in further declines. Focus on buying during dips before the CPI release, as this is the most favorable approach today.
Wishing you a successful trading day!
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bearish Market
-Buy Levels: 20,840 / 20,780 / 20,745 / 20,570
-Sell Levels: 21,015 / 21,070 / 21,120 / 21,190 / 21,320
Oil - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 77.50 / 76.90 / 76.50 / 75.70
-Sell Levels: 78.60 / 79.10 / 79.65 / 80.10
Gold - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 2,683 / 2,674 / 2,666 / 2,661 / 2,654
-Sell Levels: 2,704 / 2,712 / 2,717 / 2,723 / 2,729
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
