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MICROSOFT: On the way to the top of the channel!! We're in!!On Wednesday, January 29, Microsoft presented its results. Its results were better than expected in Sales, EBIT and BNA, however, the growth of Azure (cloud) disappointed and the value began to fall towards the bottom of the LATERAL channel in which it has been moving for months. Main figures compared to the Bloomberg consensus: Sales: 69,632 million dollars (+12%) vs. 68,903 million dollars expected. EBIT: 31,653 million dollars (+17.1%) vs. 30,258M$ expected. BNA: 24,108 million dollars (+10.2%) vs. 23,443M$ expected. Within the three major segments of the company, the cloud business is slightly disappointing (growth of +31% vs. +32% expected by consensus). In addition, the management team at the earnings conference pointed out that Azure (cloud business) growth will be somewhat more moderate than expected (range +31%/+32% vs. +33% in this quarter). --> What do we do with Microsoft? Despite the cloud disappointment, if we have a long-term view, Microsoft is a very attractive stock to have in our portfolio. --> What does it look like technically? The technical aspect is BULLISH/SIDEWAYS, therefore, if we want to enter the stock, we should wait for the price to touch the bottom of the channel and give us a signal of the start of bullish momentum. AND THAT IS JUST WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW!!. In H1 timeframe we already have bullish STRENGTH and MOMENTUM (Bull) and in H4 timeframe the MOMENTUM, therefore, we can now enter LONG in the value. -------------------------------------- Strategy to follow: ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions in the current area of ​​414 POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 446 area (+7.5%) --> Stop Loss at 385 (-7.5%). POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop type position. --> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-7.5%) (coinciding with 385 of position 1). --> We modify the dynamic Stop Loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (446). ------------------------------------------- SET UP EXPLANATIONS *** How do you know which 2 long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, what we do is divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each. *** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a certain distance. That certain distance is the dynamic Stop Loss. -->Example: IF the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price drops by -1%, the position will be closed. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% in the rises, therefore, the risk is increasingly lower until the position becomes profitable. In this way, very strong and stable price trends can be exploited, maximizing profits.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by jmesado
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed lower as Walmart’s earnings report raised concerns about slowing consumer demand. Today marks the weekly close, and since the weekly chart has not yet confirmed a buy signal, any downward movement in the MACD could increase the likelihood of further declines. On the daily chart, the 10-day moving average is acting as support, aligning with the upper boundary of the February range. The MACD remains in a buy signal, but market flows are mixed, suggesting that choppy price action with alternating bullish and bearish candles could persist. Until a strong breakout candle decisively clears previous highs, it is safer to treat the current market as range-bound. While the bullish bias remains, traders should monitor whether the daily MACD generates a sell signal, which could shift momentum in favor of sellers. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is declining sharply, indicating that buying pressure is weak. However, since the signal line is still above the zero line, a rebound attempt could emerge between 21,800 and 21,900. If the gap between the MACD and the signal line continues to widen, traders should avoid chasing long positions, even if a short-term bounce occurs. Crude Oil Crude oil closed higher, finding support near the $71 level. A buy signal has appeared on the daily chart, though it is not yet confirmed. The MACD and signal line have formed a golden cross, but today’s daily close will likely determine whether the buy signal holds. If the buy signal remains valid, oil could be forming a double-bottom pattern, confirming a base before moving higher. However, given weekend geopolitical risks, holding positions over the weekend (overweekend exposure) should be approached with caution. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has pulled back toward the signal line before resuming an upward move, forming a wave 3 buying pattern. Since further upside momentum is possible, traders should focus on buying dips rather than chasing breakouts. Gold Gold closed higher after breaking above its previous high. On the daily chart, the MACD and signal line are closely aligned, meaning that if gold prints a bearish candle and breaks below the 10-day moving average, a bearish crossover (death cross) is likely. Since the MACD and signal line are still at elevated levels above the zero line, any selloff is likely to be met with buying interest, keeping the market range-bound. However, if gold breaks below the lower boundary of the current range, a sharp sell-off could occur, making stop-loss management crucial for long positions. On the 240-minute chart, gold has briefly broken above a triple-top formation before pulling back, forming a whipsaw pattern. This suggests that a further drop is likely. If the MACD on the 240-minute chart crosses below the signal line, it could mark the start of a trend reversal, making this a key technical level to watch. Overall, gold remains in a range-bound environment, but selling at highs is currently more favorable. If buying at support, stop-loss management is essential. As we close out the weekly session, traders should focus on risk management and ensure safe trading strategies. Take the weekend to rest, recharge, and maintain a healthy balance between trading and personal life. Wishing you a successful trading day and a great weekend! If you like my analysis, please follow me and give it a boost! For additional strategies for today, check out my profile. Thank you!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed higher within its range, finding support at the 5-day moving average. While the daily buy signal remains intact, the market showed some corrective movement following yesterday’s doji candle, with selling pressure continuing on the lower time frames. As the index approaches previous highs, profit-taking is occurring, leading to a temporary consolidation phase. Market flows remain mixed, which could make it difficult for the Nasdaq to break through resistance decisively. However, as long as the index continues to hold the 5-day MA, the potential for a continued rally remains. On the 240-minute chart, the sell signal remains active, and the market is consolidating within a range. Since the MACD and signal line remain above the zero line, further upside attempts are likely. For now, a range-trading strategy—buying near support and selling near resistance—remains the most effective approach. Crude Oil Crude oil closed higher, breaking above the $72 level. On the daily chart, the MACD has not yet confirmed a bullish crossover, making it too early to fully confirm an uptrend. Although oil has formed a double-bottom pattern, market flows remain mixed, and since the MACD and signal line are converging near the zero level, a strong breakout or breakdown could occur soon. Given that the weekly MACD remains in an uptrend, buying dips remains the preferred strategy. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD and signal line have both moved above the zero line, confirming strong buying momentum. If oil breaks above the neckline at $73, a strong bullish move could follow. However, if the market fails to hold above $73, it could settle into a range-bound structure. For now, buying on dips remains the most favorable strategy, but traders should be cautious, as today’s crude oil inventory report could introduce significant volatility. Gold Gold failed to break above its previous high, closing lower. The market remains in a range-bound structure, with the MACD initially turning upward but now shifting back toward the signal line. If the MACD forms a bearish crossover, gold is likely to remain in a consolidation phase, and the next key question will be whether gold finds support at the 20-day moving average or moves even lower to test previous breakout levels. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is pulling back toward the signal line, showing signs of weakening momentum. Additionally, the market appears to be forming a triple-top (head-and-shoulders) pattern, meaning that if the neckline breaks, a further decline could follow. Given these conditions, the best approach is to trade within the current range, favoring selling near highs while only considering long positions at key support levels. Stay disciplined, manage risk carefully, and have a successful trading day! 🚀 If you like my analysis, please follow me and give it a boost! For additional strategies for today, check out my profile. Thank you!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Arista Networks Dips 4% Premarket Despite Strong Q4 FinancialsArista Networks (NASDAQ: NYSE:ANET ) saw a 4% dip in premarket trading despite delivering better-than-expected revenue and earnings in its latest quarterly report. The stock's recent movement raises questions about market sentiment and potential buying opportunities. Strong Revenue and Earnings Growth Arista Networks, a leader in cloud networking, reported a fourth-quarter revenue of $1.93 billion, reflecting a 7% year-over-year increase. This beat analyst estimates and demonstrated the company’s ability to sustain growth even amid economic uncertainty. Net earnings surged to $830.1 million (65 cents per share), compared to $664.3 million (52 cents per share) in the prior year. These strong financials reflect Arista’s continued dominance in the cloud networking industry, particularly as it pushes further into AI-driven initiatives. Additionally, Arista Networks provided an optimistic forecast for the first quarter of 2024, expecting revenue between $1.93 billion and $1.97 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations. This suggests that despite short-term price volatility, the company’s long-term growth remains intact. Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings Despite the positive earnings report, NYSE:ANET faced early selling pressure. However, analysts remain bullish on the stock, with an average "Buy" rating from 15 analysts. The 12-month price forecast stands at $108.38, representing a slight downside of -3.12% from the latest price, indicating that the market might already be factoring in Arista’s growth potential. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, NYSE:ANET ’s premarket drop of 4.11% has placed its Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47, signaling that the stock is approaching oversold territory but not yet at extreme levels. Currently, the stock is trading above key moving averages (MA), suggesting that the broader uptrend remains intact. However, the dip brings NYSE:ANET close to its one-month low, a temporary support level that traders should watch closely. If selling pressure continues, a break below this level could lead to further downside. That said, this retracement could also be a strategic move to sweep liquidity and attract demand for a potential rebound. Investors should watch for price stabilization and confirmation of renewed buying interest before making any decisive moves. Conclusion Despite the early sell-off, Arista Networks’ strong fundamentals, growing revenue, and positive long-term outlook position it as a solid investment choice. The recent dip may be an opportunity for traders to capitalize on a short-term pullback before the stock resumes its upward trajectory. As always, monitoring key technical levels and broader market trends will be crucial in assessing NYSE:ANET ’s next move.
NYSE:ANETLong
by DEXWireNews
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed flat with a doji candle, facing resistance at previous highs. As mentioned yesterday, there was a possibility of a pullback to the 5-day moving average, and while the market did not fully correct to that level, it did consolidate and pull the 5-day MA higher, suggesting a preparatory phase for further upside. On the daily chart, the MACD and signal line remain upward-facing, indicating that buying dips remains the preferred strategy. However, since trading volume remains relatively low and market flows appear mixed, it is advisable to take profits quickly when buying dips rather than holding for extended gains. On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has appeared at the highs, meaning that a pullback toward the upper boundary of the previous range is possible. Given the doji candle on the daily chart, traders should be cautious about chasing longs in the pre-market session. If the MACD turns downward, selling pressure could intensify. That said, the MACD and signal line remain well above the zero line, suggesting that rebound attempts are likely. While the sell signal remains active, short positions should be managed with strict stop-loss levels. Tonight, the FOMC meeting minutes will be released, so be mindful of potential volatility during the regular session and after-hours trading. Crude Oil Crude oil closed higher, testing $72 as resistance while forming a potential double-bottom pattern. The MACD on the daily chart is approaching a key decision point, where it will either bullishly cross above the signal line or turn lower again, determining the next directional move. Since the signal line is near the zero level, the next buy or sell signal is likely to trigger a significant price move. Additionally, the ongoing Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations remain a key geopolitical risk factor, as any developments could lead to increased oil price volatility. From a technical perspective, oil remains within a range-bound structure, making buying dips the most effective approach. A break below $70 would be a bearish signal, while sustained movement above $72 could confirm a breakout. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has moved above the zero line, lifting the signal line upward. While a short-term pullback is possible, as long as the MACD does not form a bearish crossover, buying pressure could strengthen further. Gold Gold closed higher, rebounding from previous levels. Yesterday’s price action confirmed that the MACD used the signal line as support and turned higher, reinforcing the bullish trend. Since the MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, the daily chart remains in a buy-biased structure, meaning that until a confirmed bearish crossover occurs, the market should still be approached with a buy-on-dip mindset. However, if gold moves above its previous high but the MACD fails to exceed its previous peak, a bearish divergence could form, increasing the risk of a sharp correction. Traders should remain aware of this scenario and avoid chasing long positions at elevated levels. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has crossed above the signal line near the zero level, generating a strong upward wave. However, the market is approaching key resistance zones, and if another rally occurs, a bearish divergence could develop, reinforcing the need for cautious positioning. Buying at major support levels remains the safest strategy, while avoiding breakout trades is advisable. With the FOMC meeting minutes set for release tonight, overnight positions in gold should be managed carefully due to the potential for increased volatility. Despite high market volatility, trends remain clear across different asset classes, making trading conditions manageable. Instead of attempting countertrend trades, focus on following the prevailing trend and capitalizing on structured setups.Wishing you a successful trading day! If you like my analysis, please follow me and give it a boost! For additional strategies for today, check out my profile. Thank you!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Futureguard
AMAZON: Good results and in the 61.8% Fibonacci zone! Pay attentAmazon presented results on February 7th, beating expectations driven by the cloud business. AWS stands out with a growth of +19%, a pace that it has maintained for 3 consecutive quarters. Revenues on the online platform grow +8%, advertising +18% and third-party services +9%. Efficiency measures and the greater growth of AWS and advertising, with higher margins, boost EBIT +60.5% with a margin improvement of +350 bp to 11.3%. AI will continue to be a growth factor in 2025 after the alliance with Anthropic and new AI applications. But the guidance for 1Q25 is disappointing, indicating that Amazon remains cautious in an environment of uncertainty due to the impact of tariffs on China (25% of its online sales are of Chinese products) and adverse effects due to exchange rates. Despite a weaker than expected 1Q25, we remain positive on the stock. The advertising business is growing at a good pace and Amazon is already the third largest operator after Google and Meta, with a global share of 9%. On the online sales front, the group is reducing delivery times to face growing competition from Walmart and Temu. With a 47% market share in the cloud business in 2023 (55% excluding China), Amazon remains one of the companies that will benefit the most from the adoption of generative AI, ranking among the preferred providers of AI-based services/apps for users, although investment efforts and a moderation in consumption are slowing short-term growth prospects. --> What does it look like technically? So far this year, it has a cumulative revaluation of +4% and its trend is clearly bullish, so we will ONLY look for LONGs. It is currently in a RECOVERY PHASE and has already reached the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci zone, which means it is in a key zone from which it could end the retracement and start a new bullish impulse on the way to new highs. Last Friday the IVO oscillator warned us of overselling, and if we add to that the fact that its trend is clearly bullish and that it has a retracement of almost 61.8% Fibonacci, it is very likely that the MOMENTUM will soon turn bullish (Bull) and we can make a long entry. --------------------------------------- Strategy to follow: ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions if it exceeds the 236 zone POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 245 zone (+4%) --> Stop Loss at 226 (-4%). --> Ratio ( 1:1 ) POSITION 2 ( TP2 ): We open a Trailing Stop type position. --> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-4%) (coinciding with the 226 of position 1 ). --> We modify the dynamic Stop Loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 ( 245 ). ------------------------------------------- SET UP EXPLANATIONS *** How do you know which 2 long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, what we do is divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each. *** What is Trailing Stop ? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a certain distance. That certain distance is the dynamic Stop Loss. -->Example: If the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price drops by -1%, the position will be closed. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% on rises, therefore, the risk is increasingly lower until the position becomes profitable. In this way, very solid and stable price trends can be taken advantage of, maximizing profits.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by jmesado
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq rose within a small range, forming a box consolidation pattern. On the daily chart, buying pressure remains strong, and today’s candlestick will merge with yesterday’s due to the holiday. As mentioned previously, today is a key session where the 5-day moving average may provide support, meaning a pullback to this level is possible. Since yesterday’s high remained in a consolidation phase, the pre-market and regular session today could see some downside movement. The reason is that the market has yet to test a key level, which increases the likelihood of a short-term pullback. On the 240-minute chart, the buy signal remains intact, but low-volume choppy price action persists. If a sell signal emerges on the 240-minute chart, the Nasdaq could correct down to the 5-day MA, making this a key area to consider buying dips. Since today’s candle will be a combined session with yesterday, traders should expect price swings that normally unfold in one day to play out over two sessions. Crude Oil Crude oil closed higher within a neutral range, forming a bullish daily candle. The key focus now is whether oil can sustain its double-bottom structure, leading to further upside. For the MACD and signal line to maintain a sell signal on the daily chart, oil must break decisively below $70 by the daily close. If this does not happen, a double-bottom reversal could trigger a rebound, meaning traders should be cautious with short positions. On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has appeared, following a false breakdown and a potential double-bottom formation. If holding short positions, be aware of the risk of a sudden price surge. With ongoing Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations, oil volatility could increase, so traders should remain cautious. A break above $72 would be a bullish confirmation, while a failure to hold $70 support could lead to another leg down. Risk management is crucial. Gold Gold rebounded on the daily chart, closing higher. The MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, meaning that the market remains in a buy-biased structure, increasing the likelihood of continued upside. While buying dips remains the preferred strategy, gold has already tested the 3-day and 5-day moving averages, meaning traders should now focus on lower time frames for entry confirmation. If gold continues to rise today and breaks above the 3-day and 5-day moving averages, the MACD could turn higher again, confirming that the buy trend remains intact. However, if gold declines and the MACD forms a bearish crossover, traders should prepare for a potential move down toward the 20-day moving average, adjusting their strategy accordingly. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has dropped below the zero line, but the signal line remains above zero, suggesting that rebound attempts are likely. However, since the MACD’s downward slope is steep, a quick bullish crossover is unlikely. Even if gold rises, it may face resistance and pull back again, meaning traders should avoid chasing breakouts. If the signal line falls below zero, this would be a bearish confirmation, making it safer to trade within a range—selling near highs and buying at lower support levels. Given yesterday’s holiday, today could see increased volatility as markets adjust. Additionally, Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes release is expected to introduce further market swings. Risk management is key—stay disciplined, and have a successful trading day! 🚀 If you like my analysis, please follow me and give it a boost! For additional strategies for today, check out my profile. Thank you!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Apple: Ready to see new highs!!The technical aspect of Apple is clearly bullish and everything points to it being on its way to new highs. On Monday, December 30, the DAILY timeframe chart indicated that the MOMENTUM was turning bearish (Bear), and as expected, the price began to fall until it reached the 219 zone, just when the oscillator showed an oversold signal (January 22). Since then, the price began to recover until last Friday, when TREND, STRENGTH and MOMENTUM aligned bullish (Bull), clearly warning us that the price will most likely attack the highs. In addition to the technical aspect, Apple has an accumulated fall of -2.32%, which makes it easier for us to see new highs in the coming days. -------------------------------------- Strategy to follow: ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions if the price exceeds the 247.5 zone POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the maximum zone of 259 (+5%) --> Stop Loss at 234 (-5%). --> Ratio (1:1) POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop type position. --> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-5%) (coinciding with the 234 of position 1). --> We modify the dynamic Stop Loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (259). ------------------------------------------- SET UP EXPLANATIONS *** How do you know which 2 long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, what we do is divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each. *** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a certain distance. That certain distance is the dynamic Stop Loss. -->Example: If the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price drops by -1%, the position will be closed. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% in the rises, therefore, the risk is increasingly lower until the position becomes profitable. In this way, very solid and stable trends in the price can be taken advantage of, maximizing profits.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by jmesado
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed higher, finding support at the 3-day moving average. On the weekly chart, the index formed a strong bullish breakout candle, yet a confirmed buy signal has not yet materialized. This week, the focus will be on whether the index can hold support at the 3-week moving average, allowing for further upside potential. However, if the weekly candle closes as a bearish candle, a new sell signal could emerge, making this week’s closing price critical. On the daily chart, as noted last Friday, the Nasdaq bounced off the 3-day moving average, which means today’s key support level is the 5-day moving average. This suggests that if the market pulls back in the pre-market session or briefly tests the 5-day MA intraday, a rebound could follow. A key factor today is the U.S. market holiday, meaning today’s daily candle will merge with tomorrow’s session. If the market moves up first, it could present a short opportunity at the highs, while a downside move first could offer a dip-buying opportunity. On the 240-minute chart, buying pressure remains strong, making buying on dips the preferred strategy. However, given the gap between price and the 5-day moving average, traders should avoid chasing longs and instead focus on buying at lower levels. Crude Oil Crude oil closed lower following news of Ukraine-Russia peace talks. On the weekly chart, the MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, meaning the buy signal remains intact. However, the gap between the MACD and the signal line is narrowing, suggesting that if a bullish crossover fails, a strong move could follow. After four consecutive weeks of decline and last week’s doji candle, this week’s closing price is critical—if oil closes with a bullish candle, it could signal a potential reversal. On the daily chart, both the MACD and signal line remain below the zero line, keeping the sell signal active. However, strong historical support levels make it difficult to short aggressively. Oil is also attempting to form a double-bottom pattern near $70, making a break above $72 a key bullish confirmation. The short-term price action remains mixed, making lower time frames more relevant for positioning. On the 240-minute chart, the sell signal remains intact, with the key focus on whether oil breaks below $70. If oil fails to break lower, a bullish divergence could form, making chasing shorts a high-risk strategy. Given that U.S. markets are closed today, liquidity will be lower, so expect reduced trading volumes. Gold Gold closed lower, forming a double-top rejection at previous highs. As mentioned last week, the 2950+ zone was an overextended level, and now the price has pulled back sharply. On the weekly chart, gold remains in an uptrend, but a pullback toward the 5-week moving average remains possible. Since it is unclear how deep the correction may go, traders should only buy dips at lower levels to ensure proper risk management. On the daily chart, gold closed below the 10-day moving average, marking a technical shift. Throughout this entire rally, the key rule was to buy as long as gold held the 10-day MA, but now that it has broken, the market has shifted into a range-bound structure. However, since the MACD has not yet formed a bearish crossover, the market still has the potential for another rebound. Gold’s price action will depend on whether it can reclaim the 10-day MA or continue consolidating within a larger range. For now, the 2915–2920 zone (near the 3-day and 5-day moving averages) is a likely resistance area, while downside risk extends toward the 20-day moving average. On the 240-minute chart, a strong sell signal has appeared, but both the MACD and signal line remain above the zero line, meaning that buying attempts could still emerge. Meanwhile, on the 60-minute chart, gold is testing its 240-period moving average, a level that often acts as a major support/resistance pivot. Considering these factors, gold is likely to remain range-bound this week, making box-range trading strategies the most effective. Given that a double-top pattern has formed, further downside could trigger increased volatility, so traders should be cautious. Today, the U.S. market is closed, with key events scheduled for later this week: -Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Minutes -Thursday: Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations Rather than a new trend forming, markets are likely to consolidate within existing trends, leading to range-bound conditions. Risk management remains the top priority—stay disciplined, and have a successful trading week! If you like detailed this analysis and today's strategy, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Futureguard
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed higher, breaking through resistance near 22,000. Although Trump held a press conference on tariffs, the market interpreted the grace period as a bullish signal, driving a breakout from the previous range with a strong bullish candlestick. On the daily chart, the MACD remains in an upward trend, and since the index has broken out of its previous range, today’s strategy should focus on buying at the 3-day moving average, which aligns closely with the previous range high. Today marks the weekly close, making the Retail Sales data release a crucial event. If price action sustains its bullish momentum, it will be important to check whether a weekly buy signal is confirmed on the closing price. On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has emerged, reinforcing the breakout above the range. Buying on dips remains the preferred strategy, but traders should stay mindful of potential volatility spikes around the Retail Sales report. Crude Oil Crude oil closed higher, bouncing off the $70 support level with a long lower wick. Despite this rebound, both the MACD and signal line remain below the zero line on the daily chart, indicating that selling pressure is still dominant. However, this area also represents a strong historical support zone, making buying on dips a favorable strategy. As mentioned earlier this week, oil is forming a potential double-bottom pattern, which could provide further upside potential. The key trigger would be either a bullish MACD crossover near the zero line or a bearish continuation if the crossover fails, leading to a strong directional move. On the 240-minute chart, price action has exhibited a false breakdown, followed by a bullish divergence, suggesting that a bottoming process is underway. Buying on pullbacks remains the most effective approach, but traders should be cautious with weekend risk, as Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations could bring unexpected developments. Gold Gold closed higher, digesting the PPI data while trading near previous highs. The key focus is whether gold is forming a double-top pattern at this level. The recent rally can largely be attributed to global inflation fears stemming from Trump’s tariff policies. On the daily chart, the buy signal remains intact, but traders should be cautious, as a corrective pullback could emerge at any time. The MACD and signal line tend to converge naturally, so chasing momentum at current levels carries increased risk. On the 240-minute chart, gold has bounced off the 2,900 support level, triggering a buy signal. However, there is now a wide divergence between price and MACD, meaning that even if gold breaks above previous highs, the MACD may fail to surpass its previous peak, potentially signaling a bearish divergence. If a divergence forms and price pulls back, the correction could be sharp, as overbought conditions often lead to strong reversals. However, since the MACD and signal line remain well above the zero line, even a pullback is likely to find support, leading to a range-bound structure. The safest approach is to buy only at key support levels. Today’s Retail Sales report could drive significant market volatility, particularly as it will influence the weekly close. Always focus on the larger trend, manage risk effectively, and stay disciplined. Wishing you a successful trading day! 🚀 Today's strategy will only be provided until the end of this week. Thank you. ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 22000 / 21945 / 21900 / 21840 -Sell Levels: 22160 / 22240 / 22300 / 22360 Crude Oil - Range-bound Market(March) -Buy Levels: 71.10 / 70.45 / 69.85 -Sell Levels: 71.85 / 72.55 / 73.00 GOLD - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 2945 / 2936 / 2930 / 2921 -Sell Levels: 2966 / 2974 / 2985 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Futureguard
GOOGLE: Clear pattern of behavior begins to give warnings!!!On February 4th, Alphabet (Google) presented its results. The figures were positive, and show that the company's business continues to grow at a good pace (+13%). However, the slight disappointment of the cloud storage business caused the market to react with significant falls on the day of its publication (-7%) (February 4th). Since then it has not stopped falling, reaching a cumulative fall of almost -12% from its highs. ---> What does it look like technically? If we look at the graph, there is a clear PATTERN of BEHAVIOR that has been repeated on the last 2 occasions in which Google experienced a correction phase. ---> What PATTERN are we talking about? What is clearly observed in the graph is that the following 4 warnings occur (one after the other), before starting a new bullish impulse to attack highs: 1) Oscillator warns of overselling (blue diamond that can be seen in the oscillator at the bottom. I have painted a vertical blue line). 2) Once the oversold signal appears, the price is supported by its bullish trend line, which also always coincides with a Fibonacci retracement of between 50% and 61.8%. 3) The bullish (Bull) signal of MOMENTUM appears. 4) The FORCE also turns bullish (Bull) (the candles turn blue). --> What happened today? The oversold signal has appeared again in the oscillator (point 1), and it has also been supported by its bullish trend line which coincides with a Fibonacci retracement of almost 61.8% (point 2). ---> What do we need now to be sure that it will go for new highs? That both the MOMENTUM and the STRENGTH turn bullish (Bull). At the moment they are still bearish and therefore we have to wait. --- What strategy can we follow? 1) Aggressive profile: Enter long when the MOMENTUM turns bullish (Bull). (at point 3). 2) Conservative profile: Enter long when the MOMENTUM and the STRENGTH turn bullish (Bull). (enter long when point 4 occurs). If everything goes as normal, tomorrow it is VERY LIKELY that we will see the bullish (Bull) MOMENTUM signal and therefore, we will be able to think about whether or not to go long depending on our investor profile. Greetings and good trading!
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by jmesado
TSLA - Filling the gap and then upside?The stock is trading around $337, showing significant volatility after a sharp decline from recent highs near $480. There's a notable gap in the price action around the $260-280 region that hasn't been filled. The overall price action has formed a series of lower highs since the recent peak. The current technical structure suggests potential weakness in the near term. The unfilled gap around $260-280 could act as a magnetic price level. Historical price action shows that gaps tend to get filled eventually, supporting the likelihood of a move down to this region.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by financialflagship
The key is whether there is support at 21698.25 Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- It's the 10th day since the new The Leap season started. The trading items for this season are as follows. CL1! : Light Crude Oil Futures GCL1! : Gold Futures NQ1! : NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures ES1! : S&P 500 E-mini Futures MBT1! : Micro Bitcoin Futures MCL1! : Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures M6E1! : Micro EUR/USD Futures MGC1! : Micro Gold Futures MNQ1! : Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 index Futures MES1! : Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures -------------------------------------- (NQ1! 1D chart) The key is whether it can be supported at 21698.25. - (30m chart) If not, 1st: 2159.23 near the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart 2nd: 21501.75 We need to check whether there is support near the 1st and 2nd above. - (1D chart) If it rises after receiving support at 21698.25, the point to watch is whether it can rise above the StochRSI 50 indicator and the Price Channel indicator (21871.75-21981.50). Since the StochRSI indicator is currently located near the overbought zone, if it rises further, 1st: 21871.75-21981.50 2nd: 22314.50 It seems likely that it will face resistance near the 1st and 2nd levels. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. --------------------------------------------------
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by readCrypto
Your Vote Counts - Help Build the Ultimate Index Watchlist!Hey, I need your help again - this will only take a minute! I’ve said it before, here and to my Substackers: I want to be your reminder to invest . Because let’s be honest, steadily growing your wealth might not be thrilling but it should be your goal! Yes, individual stocks have their place (and I’ll keep sharing ideas on those too), but indexes should be a key part of a solid portfolio. Today’s focus? Maximizing your index purchases. 📊 Proven strategy: A few weeks ago, I ran an experiment comparing QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF), SPY (S&P 500 ETF), and IWM (Russell 2000 ETF). Using technical analysis, I outperformed two of them. The tests showed that blind purchasing could be costly: for instance, regular SPY purchases would have left $100,000 on the table, and IWM even more. But here’s the point: this isn’t about blindly picking an index - it’s about timing, risk optimization, and smart diversification. 💡 Now, it’s YOUR turn! Drop two indexes in the comments that you want me to analyze every single month. You decide the final list (likely 4-5 indexes), and I’ll cover them consistently. Whether it’s S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, DAX, Euro Stoxx 50, Russell 2000, or others - you pick, I deliver. 📈 How this helps YOU? ✔️ No overthinking : "What should I buy this month?" - just wait for my post and see the TOP picks ✔️ Keeps you engaged and active in the market ✔️ Builds consistency in your investing ✔️ Ensures every allocation works harder for you ⬇️ Comment your picks below, and let’s make every move count! 🚀 Cheers, Vaido
SP:SPXLong
by VaidoVeek
17
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed higher despite Trump’s tariff announcement. On the daily chart, the MACD buy signal remains intact, and the index posted a strong bullish candlestick, confirming an upward bias. However, given the lack of volume behind the move, the market remains within a range-bound structure rather than signaling a clear breakout. For meaningful upside continuation, a decisive breakout above 22,000 is required. Until then, the market is likely to remain in a 21,000–22,000 range, as failure to break either side would prevent the MACD from creating a strong divergence from the signal line, leading to further sideways consolidation. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is attempting a bullish crossover, but the price is struggling to hold its gains. If the MACD fails to cross above the signal line and instead turns lower, a failed breakout scenario could trigger a sharp decline. Given the low-volume rally from yesterday, chasing longs at current levels is not ideal. Instead, it is safer to maintain a range-trading strategy, with buying near the lower bound and selling near the upper bound. Additionally, if the index fails to break above the range high, a bearish MACD divergence could develop, increasing the risk of a downside move. Traders should avoid aggressive breakout buying and instead focus on disciplined range-bound positioning. Crude Oil Crude oil closed higher, reaching the 10-day moving average, as MACD attempted to reconnect with the signal line. The $70–71 support zone remains a strong demand area, making dip-buying strategies favorable. As mentioned yesterday, the key question is whether oil will form a double bottom at $70–71 before breaking higher, or if it will continue rallying without a retest. Given the wide gap between the MACD and signal line on the daily chart, a failure to complete a golden cross could lead to another pullback, making chasing longs above $74 risky. On the 240-minute chart, oil has confirmed a bullish divergence, triggering a strong upward move. For the first time in a while, strong buying pressure has returned, reinforcing the buy-on-dip strategy. However, traders should monitor price action carefully as resistance levels approach. Gold Gold closed at a new all-time high, rallying aggressively into overbought territory and even breaking through the upper Bollinger Band. Inflation concerns are intensifying globally, fueled by Trump’s escalating tariff rhetoric, which is driving a strong commodities rally in gold, copper, and other raw materials. Since gold has been in a continuous uptrend since confirming its buy signal on January 16, traders should be mindful that sharp pullbacks can occur at any time. Additionally, with key U.S. economic data releases this week—CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday—gold’s volatility is expected to remain elevated. Given the overbought conditions, the best strategy remains buying on dips, rather than chasing highs. On the daily chart, the MACD would need to form a bearish crossover for a more structured correction to take place. On the 240-minute chart, gold has been in a stair-step rally, with the 2940–2950 zone emerging as a key wave-based resistance level. However, overshooting this level is possible, making it critical to wait for confirmation before assuming a short position. For now, the buy signal remains intact on the 240-minute chart, reinforcing the buy-on-dip approach. However, given yesterday’s strong rally, some short-term consolidation or profit-taking is likely today. With Wednesday’s U.S. CPI release and Trump’s escalating tariff measures, global market volatility is increasing significantly. Risk management remains essential in this environment. Trade smart and stay disciplined! Today's strategy will only be provided until the end of this week. For more detailed strategies, please contact us on Telegram. Thank you. ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 21770 / 21720 / 21670 / 21550 -Sell Levels: 21850 / 21905 / 21960 / 22020 / 22100 Crude Oil - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 72.10 / 71.70 / 71.30 / 71.00 -Sell Levels: 72.95 / 73.35 / 74.50 GOLD - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 2934 / 2928 / 2922 / 2917 -Sell Levels: 2950 / 2955 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Futureguard
TESLA: Why do shares keep falling? TRUMP!! Concerns about overseas sales and tariffs add to the company's disappointing fourth-quarter results reported last Wednesday. Tesla reported earnings of 73 cents per share, below analysts' expectations of 76 cents, and revenue of $25.71 billion versus the $27.26 billion expected. Revenue fell 8% compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, the looming application of tariffs on China and Canada (Mexico has a one-month extension) is spooking investors. In a recent earnings call with analysts, Musk acknowledged that while Tesla has tried to localize its supply chain, it still relies heavily on parts from around the world for all of its operations. “Therefore, the imposition of tariffs, which is very likely, will have an impact on our business and profitability,” he stated. Canada is a key supplier of auto parts, as is China. And Canadian officials are specifically focusing some of their discontent with Trump's tariffs on Musk. On Monday, Premier Doug Ford announced that Ontario would cancel a $100 million contract with Starlink, which is part of Musk's company SpaceX. In other words, MUSK is one of the TARGETS that ARE going to be punished FOR THE US TARGETS. ----------------------------------------------------------- --> How far could the price fall? At the moment the technical aspect is bullish (Bull) in the medium-long term, but in the short term it is bearish (Bear), so WE HAVE TO WAIT to enter long. Today it has reached the first important support zone, we are talking about the 350.63 zone, which also coincides with a Fibonacci retracement of almost 50%. If the zone respects it and the MOMENTUM and STRENGTH in H4 turn bullish (Bull), it will be a good time to enter long positions in TESLA again. --> KEY SUPPORTS 1) 350.63 (Key support in Daily time frame) 2) 355 (50% Fibonacci) 3) 314 (Key support in Weekly time frame) 4) 300 (61.8% Fibonacci) ------------------------------------------------------------ --> When the chart gives us the first bullish warning (Bull) in time frame, I will publish a new analysis indicating the entry SET UP.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by jmesado
Risks are Bubbling in the Nasdaq-100The Nasdaq-100 has led this cycle, driven by U.S. economic resilience and an unprecedented investment surge in artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure. However, risks are emerging from overvaluation, excessive AI spending that has yet to translate into revenue, and geopolitical uncertainties tied to the Trump administration. With the Nasdaq-100 trading below its all-time high and lacking sufficient catalysts for a breakout, a near-term correction could occur if these risks materialize. Investors may consider a short position to capitalize on this potential downturn. AI Spending and Overvaluation Risks The "Magnificent Seven"—Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla—have dominated market sentiment, collectively accounting for approximately 63% of the Nasdaq-100's total market cap. This highlights the rally's extreme concentration. Much of the momentum has been driven by high expectations for rapid growth in artificial intelligence, further amplifying the market's reliance on these key players. The broader backdrop has also been supportive: US economic growth continues to surprise to the upside, with growth expected at 2.3% for the year, while corporate earnings—even more so for tech—are likely to rise 7-14%, as per multiple analyst outlooks. However, recent earnings reports have injected caution into AI enthusiasm. Alphabet missed revenue forecasts, sending its stock down 7.3%, while AMD dropped 6.3% after weak data-center sales. Amazon's AWS posted $28.79B in revenue, just shy of the $28.84B estimate, raising concerns over AI over-spending. Despite this, AI capex remains aggressive. Meta reaffirmed its $60-65B 2025 capex plan, despite $17B in Metaverse losses last year. Microsoft defended its Azure and OpenAI bets, while Alphabet, despite AI competition pressures , is committing $75B to AI infrastructure in 2025. With ambitions and excitement all around, the market’s reaction toward these companies, in light of underwhelming earnings and efficient competition from China, has not been so forgiving. Cracks are forming, and a more cautious approach to Nasdaq-100 exposure may be warranted. Valuations are stretched, with the index’s forward P/E ratio at 34 , up from 28 in 2023. While the AI boom, particularly in consumer adoption, took off in early 2023, the market is now pricing in near-flawless execution—yet investors have yet to fully grapple with the rising costs, intensifying competition, and looming regulatory scrutiny. Risks remain in some of the largest Nasdaq-100 stocks, particularly Nvidia and Tesla. Nvidia’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 50.7 raises concerns about its ability to sustain past explosive growth. Similarly, Tesla, with a P/E ratio of 183.6, faces headwinds from a slowdown in the EV industry, making its valuation increasingly vulnerable. Political and Trade Uncertainty Donald Trump’s return to the White House has generated significant energy and excitement. However, the extremity of his policies could create new trade uncertainties, particularly for companies dependent on Chinese supply chains and international revenue. Since his inauguration, Trump has announced a series of tariffs against major trading partners. The risk of retaliatory measures raises the possibility of a full-blown trade war. His aggressive stance on trade could introduce sudden and unpredictable market volatility. The previous trade war saw tariffs disrupt global tech supply chains and put pressure on corporate margins. For instance, in 2018-2019 Nasdaq-100 volatility spiked and tech earnings growth slowed. If history repeats itself, the overextended valuations of Nasdaq-100 could probably get a reality check, particularly if these firms start guiding for higher costs in upcoming earnings calls. Technicals Point to Upcoming Resistance The moving averages for the Nasdaq-100 reflect a bullish sentiment owing to the strong rally for the past several months. However, the ATH level of 22,100 has proven strong resistance with prices testing this level multiple times over the past few months. A strong catalyst may be required to pass this level. During previous corrections, price has reached between the 50-day and 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Momentum indicators suggest that a short-term downward trend may be imminent. Periodic movements in the index suggest a downturn is imminent and prices may reach as far as the S1 pivot point at 20,700. Options Signal Growing Bearish Sentiment Options positioning on E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures and Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures signals a bearish sentiment. OI and volume put/call ratio for both E-mini NQ and Micro E-mini NQ are greater than 1 suggesting higher put positioning than call. There is a particualrly high concentration of puts at the March expiry. Source: CME QuikStrike Hypothetical Trade Setup Given the frothing risk factors impacting the Nasdaq-100, risk of a sharp decline is high. Elevated valuations, escalating trade tensions, and slowing AI rally, all risk a correction in the index. This decline may materialize in the next 2–3 weeks, aligning with critical macroeconomic events, including Federal Reserve announcements, inflation data releases, and upcoming corporate earnings reports. With a correction likely, investors can express this view using a short position in Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 (MNQ) futures expiring in March (MNQH2025). Each contract requires initial margin of USD 2,303 as of 10/Feb and provides exposure to USD 2 x Nasdaq index (~43,400). Investors can also use the standard E-mini NQ futures to express the same bearish view with larger notional sizes. Entry: 21,700 Target: 21,200 Stop Loss: 22,100 Profit at Target: USD 1000 ((21,700-21,200) x 2) Loss at Stop: USD 800 ((21,700-22,100) x 2) Reward to Risk: 1.25x CME Group lists a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers. Portfolio managers can learn more on how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures. TradingView has launched The Leap trading competition starting today. New and upcoming traders can hone and refine their trading skills, test their trading strategies, and feel the thrill of futures trading with a vibrant global community through this paper trading competition sponsored by CME Group using virtual money and real time prices. Click here to learn more. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. 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CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by mintdotfinance