Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 26 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
Morning analysis:
Unfortunately I woke up to my positions from yesterday being taken out at entry :(
I did take one third partial profit last night a few minutes before closing as I knew it was a risk to leave it open overnight (especially as the D candle was about to close red below the day 0.618 sell fib level) and I wanted some reward for yesterday's trading.
M TF - remains bullish and sets the tone of the overall, big picture, market sentiment.
W TF - looking at the line chart and imagining this week's candle would be dominated by bears, one can see a potential weekly DT neckline at the yellow highlight. If candles start closing below this point then the market would turn very bearish.
D TF - Yesterday the D candle closed red below the D 0.618 sell fib level. This is a bearish signal and bulls will need strength to break this level upwards.
4H - drawing the sell fib from swing hight at B. to swing low at A., it is evident that the 4H 0.50 sell fib level lines up with the pivot point (an area of confluence for a sell) and the 4H 0.618 sell fib level lines up with the D 0.618 sell fib level (super strong area of confluence). Bulls will need incredible strength and momentum to break these levels upwards. Need to watch out. But the 23:00 4H candle closed with a very long wick down to the higher TF's buy fib levels. This indicates that buyers stepped in at these levels.
All Lower TF EMA's are below price at time of writing (4H, 1H and 30min) this might provide dynamic support to help boost price upwards. Note - 4H EMA drawn in by me indicated the position of the EMA at some point in the day, now, many hours after, the EMA has moved.
If the 4H candle closes at 7am, creating a DB with the neckline broken upwards, I will enter.
As the day progressed:
The 4H candle that closes at 7am (in my time zone) did indeed close higher than the neckline and break the neckline upwards
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - DB on 4H TF formed with the neckline broken upwards (indicated by the blue lines). At the same time there was a kind of DB / H&S on the 1H TF.
2. S&R - At time of market pattern formation, the 4H EMA was acting as dynamic support. We also have a strong 4H resistance turned to support area (refer to yesterday's post about keeping 5x 4H candles down)
3. Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall trend - as a trend trader I always want to trade with the trend. Get in on a retracement (indicated by fib levels) and then ride the trend.
4. Fib - DB forming right above the 4H 0.618 fib level
5. Candlesticks - 2 x long wick 4H candles wicking down to the D 0.50 fib level, indicating a strong bullish reaction at this level. Candles are also closing above the 4H EMA which shows bullish strength.
Mental SL placed at the thick pink line roughly half the height of the 4H DB, but below the 4H EMA for extra protection. I always use mental stops because Nas is so wild and volatile that hard stops will often take you out at a loss. For me, what matters is how candles close.
Price ultimately went my way and I closed the majority of my positions at the higher hand icon, when a DT formed on the 5min TF. I left a runner open but price wicked me out at C.
Starting to wonder if I would make more money taking profit at 1000 pips daily. Market has been very volatile these past days and perhaps that is why I feel this way, because I know for sure that taking profit at 1000 pips would not be a good strategy when Nas truly starts running / seriously trending. I will start taking detailed notes over the next few months and come back to you on my observations.
Catch ya tomorrow! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Nasdaq100
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 25 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
Morning analysis:
M TF - Remains very bullish, only 4 days till close. Green candle body is 9300 pips strong (at time of writing) - indicates overall bullish sentiment.
W TF - Last week's candle closed green, indicating that price broke the previous highest weekly close, came down all the way to retest this level and then last week's candle closed green as bulls successfully retested this level and this weekly resistance has now turned to support.
D TF - Huge gap up this morning (686 pips). Price finally broke above the 0.50 SELL fib level. Further indication of bullish sentiment.
4H TF - after the gap up for the start of the day, two long green candles closed on the 4H TF. One had a long wick down rejecting the D Sell 0.618 fib level. Buyers are rejecting this zone and pushing up.
I identified 2 areas of confluence (highlighted in green):
1. Strong 4H S&R zone that held down 5 x 4H candles + 4H 0.618 fib level (swing low at A. to swing high at B. This fib only became clear later in the day.) + 4H EMA
2. W 0.50 fib level + D EMA + D 0.618 fib level
If price comes down to any of these zones I will enter with a full position size and because these are strong areas of confluence (and Nas is so volatile), I would watch the 5min TF for signs that price is ready to reverse.
As the day progressed:
Price spike up high to B. and I closed a runner that I had open from last week (not at B. exactly but as price was coming down).
Price fell quickly after market open. I view this as a retracement and not a change to the very bullish sentiment that is so evident on the higher TF's.
Price come to my interest zone 1 and gave a nice little DB on the 5min TF
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - DB on 5min TF, with neckline broken upwards with a strong green momentum candle (I don't normally enter on this TF unless it is an area of confluence)
2. S&R - as mentioned strong resistance zone holding down 5 4H candles, now clearly turned to support. Also dynamic support provided by the 4H EMA
3. Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall trend. I like to trade with the trend always.
4. Fib - D 0.382 + 4H 0.618
Mental SL placed below green highlight at the thick pink line at half the height of the 5min DB.
Price has moved more than 250pips from my entry and I am now secured at entry (so trading risk free).
Will leave it over night and hope to wake up tomorrow morning to my positions still being open.
Hope you had a good trading day! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NQ100 - closing gap The nq100 decided to close the gap that was opened during the weekend. moved down to the 88.6% fibo level, which was in conjunction with the previous top.
As i read it, the bulls yet to say the final word. i think there's going to be another push up, i don't yet if to new high, but it seems the aim is double top, and then real profit taking.
so, let's see..
good luck and stay safe
A Groundbreaking Weekly Close: Is a Big Move Loading?
🔥 The market has spoken, and it’s speaking LOUD. 🔥
This past week’s historic close is nothing short of monumental. For the first time, the market confidently surged above the previous All-Time High (ATH) — breaking through with conviction backed by exceptional volume. But what does this mean for the days ahead? Let’s break it down.
A Look Back: What History Tells Us
📈 Reversal That Changed the Game:
Earlier this year, the market reversed from a minor dip at the ATH with a surge in liquidity. That move ignited a massive 10% rally. And now, we see the same conditions emerging:
Liquidity ✔️
Strong volume ✔️
Breakthrough resistance ✔️
🔎 The Election Week Trap:
Sometimes, the market plays tricks. The US Election Week candle gave us a massive move but was immediately retraced the following week. This teaches us an important lesson: ignore the noise and focus on what truly matters — consistent price action backed by volume.
Why This Weekly Close Stands Out
✅ Exceptional Volume: Unlike election-driven volatility, this close is supported by sustained buying pressure.
✅ Breaking Major Resistance: The market isn’t just flirting with the ATH; it’s clearing it decisively.
✅ Momentum Reset: We’re now undoing the noise from previous eventful candles and focusing on the real trajectory.
What’s Next: Is Another 10% Rally in the Cards?
The stars are aligning for a potential repeat of history. With liquidity unlocked and resistance broken, the market could be gearing up for an even bigger move in the coming days. This past week’s candle could be the foundation for a new bullish wave, signaling a continuation to higher highs.
🧠 Key Takeaways for Traders
💡 Ignore the distraction of single-event candles like the election weeks — focus on volume-backed closes.
💡 Watch for sustained momentum — this close is a signal, not just a moment.
💡 Be prepared for potential follow-through that could mirror the prior 10% move or even exceed it.
⚡ Conclusion: The Market Is Ready to Make a Move ⚡
This isn’t just a weekly close; it’s a statement. The market is poised, primed, and ready to go. Are you ready to ride the wave?
➡️ A major move is loading… and you don’t want to miss it.
🔔 Stay sharp, stay focused, and let the market show its hand!
NASDAQ TODAYToday is a calm day for US100 until the 3:30 PM pull ;
today, it seems like it ll be going down after a lot of hesitations, a lot of reticence to get over 21K ;
we managed to get the descent the other day (orange lines), today seems like either a big pull out, going towards 22K, but pretty unlikely to happen, or a big drawdown like that, reinitializing RSI for the next rally.
Aclaris Rockets 300%, Smashes Targets!ACRIS (1D TF): Targets Smashed with 300% Gains!
Trade Details:
The long trade setup on the daily timeframe has exceeded expectations, blasting past all profit targets using the Risological Trading Indicator . The stock has delivered an impressive 300% gain, outperforming initial forecasts.
Key Levels:
Entry: 1.20
Stop Loss (SL): 1.16
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.25 ✅
TP2: 1.32 ✅
TP3: 1.40 ✅
TP4: 1.45 ✅
Analysis:
This massive rally showcases strong bullish momentum, driven by high market interest. With such a breakout, Aclaris demonstrates its potential as a high-performing asset.
Outlook:
Momentum traders can consider monitoring for retracements or further bullish setups. A stellar move like this reinforces the power of spotting trends early!
USTEC rose after avoiding Lutnick as a Treasury Secretary
The Nasdaq index has surged, fueled by solid expectations surrounding Nvidia's Q3 earnings and the alleviation of uncertainty following the appointment of the new Treasury Secretary.
Investors are breathing a sigh of relief as Howard Lutnick, a staunch supporter of Trump's tariff policies, has been nominated for Commerce Secretary rather than Treasury Secretary. In contrast, Kevin Warsh, who is running for Treasury Secretary, has openly criticized protectionist measures such as tariffs. This shift has heightened expectations that some economic issues stemming from Trump’s tariff policies will be mitigated.
Furthermore, Wall Street consistently raises Nvidia's target stock price. Investors anticipate that Nvidia's Q3 earnings will surpass market consensus, and Wall Street confidently anticipates that the Q4 guidance will also exceed expectations.
USTEC briefly tested the support at 20300 and rebounded to 20770. The index sustains upward momentum, holding above the trend line. If USTEC sustains its upward trend above the resistance at 20700, the index could gain upward momentum toward the 21250 high. Conversely, if USTEC fails to hold above the trend line and 20300, the index may fall further to 19950.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 19 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None. Tomorrow is Nvidia Earnings release
Directional bias - BUY (read yesterday's post entitled "Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 18 Nov 2024" for more insight into today's directional bias and swing trade entry)
Yesterday I opened a swing trade at the B. hand icon.
My mental stop was placed at the thick pink line.
Wow....what a day, what a draw down!
But held throughout and I am now 1'300 pips in the profit with a big position and secured at entry i.e. trading risk free.
Here's the reasoning for holding and also where I would have entered today if I had not had a swing trade going:
Holding swing trade:
As is evident from the 1H chart, a huge red candle closed below my mental stop. In normal trading i.e. day trading I would have closed my trade.
But in this instance I entered a swing trade based on the 4H TF. On normal day trading days, I enter on much lower TF and judge how candles close against my mental SL on much lower TFs.
As a rule, if candles start closing below my mental stop, I would close.
But over the years I have also learnt that the time frame you enter on, is the TF you should judge if you want to close your trade. In other words, if I enter on a 4H TF, then in theory I should only close my trade if 4H candles start closing below my mental stop. This is very hard (especially because Nasdaq that can spike thousands of pips at a time). But over the years, as I have grown my account and gained experience, I have been able to hold fast on this observation.
And so, as can be seen on the 4H TF, a 4H candle did not close at my mental stop.
This draw down had me sweating bullets and if I had my position sizing wrong I could easily have bust my account on a 2'700 pip drawn down (esp because I trade with a 500 leverage). I was also nearly in panic mode because the news is full of stories regarding the Ukraine Russia War escalation. So I am pleased that I held my cool, stuck with my trade plan and didn't panic close my position at a massive loss.
Whether it was luck or truly my past "observation", I thank my lucky stars that price ultimately went my way.
Entry point for today:
I did not add another position today because my exposure was already at the max.
But if I hadn't had my swing trade going, I would have entered on the 1H TF at the smiley icon (because the move down was really strong, so I would have looked for confirmation on a higher TF)
Also the 1H DB formed on the strong Weekly support.
Now we need to see if price can break through the strong sell fib levels and I am hoping Nvidia earnings will help with that.
Hope you had a good trading day! Over and out!
P.S. Note how price exactly respected the market pattern profit target theory market at C. (i.e. that price will move the same distance as the height of the market pattern, once the market pattern in broken). Price formed a rising wedge on the 4H TF and then broke downwards and moved the exact distance down as the height of the market pattern.
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 18 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None
Directional bias - BUY. On the W TF, it can be seen that price finally broke through a resistance level that held strong for 6 weeks (marked by numbers). After price broke through, it is now retesting this level to see if resistance is now turned to support. This zone also represents the W and D 0.618 fib level (drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D.) Because the Day and the Week fib levels are the same, we have a kind of TF confluence, which makes this level very strong. As the overall trend of Nasdaq is bullish, I choose to see last week as a massive retracement but not an overall trend change for Nas.
Morning analysis:
At this level (the W level highlighted in yellow), price is seen to start reacting to this level. There are DB forming on the 15min TF and the 30min TF. This gives me confidence that buyers are stepping in at this zone. Also, on the 4H TF we have not seen price retesting any of the higher level TF's, so a bullish move is expected to at least retest this bearish move.
As the day progressed:
Entered a buy at the hand icon (A.) - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - DB formed on the 15min TF after touching the W+D 0.618 fib level.
2. S&R - DB formed right at the strong Weekly S&R level marked in yellow on the W view
3. Trend - price has finally started making higher highs and higher lows (indicating that price is ready to start moving up) and a buy is in the overall direction of Nasdaq - the trend is your friend
4. Fib - W+D 0.618 fib level touched + DB formed at 1H 0.618 fib level
Mental SL placed below green highlight.
Price moved up 1'200 pips and I secured my position at entry. I wanted to hold for a larger move because ultimately a DB formed on the 1H TF and the neckline was broken with a huge momentum candle. But price came back down and took me out.
I re-entered at the hand icon B. for a more swing trade kind of entry, because we have a DB on the 1H and the 4H TF. Mental stop placed at the thick pink line, which is about half the height of the DB. But it's a risky entry because the stop is soooo far below where price currently is. So a SL hit woud mean a big loss.
Hope you had a good trading day! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
CHANGE OF DIRECTION FOR EURUSDAt first we thought it would keep going up, but it broke an important line on Friday before closing, which tends to show it keeps the bearish position ;
not sure about that tbh, but it seems too early to call a bearish trend for this pair, even though it might happen at some point soon ;
the next KL, LL and key lines will tell us if we're right or no.
BTC LATEWe thought it would go back up right now, but it turns out it made an unexpected line cutting (white cut line) ;
it s going towards the next LL KL, hitting some key points then going back up pretty quick before wednesday ;
it is now a smooth drawdown pattern, where it falls smoothly and calmly before hitting one big red candle.
NEW NASDAQ ROUTEThe potential drop in the NASDAQ in the coming days could be driven by several key factors. First, macroeconomic uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions or the persistence of high interest rates, could increase market volatility. Additionally, recent disappointing quarterly earnings from major tech companies, which are often heavily weighted in the index, add downward pressure. Lastly, technical signals such as the breach of critical support levels or a decline below the 50-day moving average could trigger accelerated sell-offs. Investors should closely monitor these indicators to assess risks and adjust their portfolios accordingly.
Nasdaq-100 H4 | Pullback support at 50% Fibonacci retracementNasdaq-100 (NAS100) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 20,660.10 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 20,480.00 which is a level that lies underneath the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 20,986.01 which is a pullback resistance.
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