How AI is Becoming a Bearish Factor for the Nasdaq 100How AI is Becoming a Bearish Factor for the Nasdaq 100
In 2024, the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) has risen by approximately 20%, with optimism around the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) acting as one of the bullish drivers.
However, yesterday's reports from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) indicated that AI, as a factor influencing stock prices, may be shifting from a bullish to a bearish driver. The issue lies in the rising expenses that these tech giants are incurring in the race for leadership in this area.
Earlier today, we noted that due to increasing expenditures, MSFT shares fell by roughly 4%, despite a strong earnings report.
A similar trend is seen in Meta Platforms' stock: actual earnings per share and gross revenue exceeded analysts’ expectations. However, due to high capital investments, META shares in pre-market trading today are around 3% lower than yesterday's opening.
Meanwhile, technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) index chart indicates several bearish signals:
→ Since mid-September, price fluctuations have formed an ascending channel, constructed using linear regression (shown in blue). However, following the reports from Microsoft and Meta Platforms, the index value has sharply dropped from the upper half of the channel to its lower boundary.
→ The pattern of peaks A-B-C-D shows that bulls find it difficult to maintain momentum: each successive peak only slightly exceeds the previous one, followed by a decline.
Considering this information, it is reasonable to assume that the current ascending channel may be unable to drive the price to the July 11 peak and could be breached by bears. Additionally, the formation of a bearish channel is not out of the question (its preliminary outline is shown in red).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nasdaq100
US100/NASDAQ NEXT MOVEAfter successfully forecasting today's move (white line), this big drawdown was unexpected but it means two things :
- it has to correct before tonight
- it will not go under the green lower uptrend limit, because then it turns into a whole new trend and the 1D/4H/2H RSI is too low for any downtrend to start now.
It will go back up at 3:30 PM fot the big daily punch.
AUDJPY GOING UP SOONEven though we missed it a little as you can see on our blue line, we had the correct idea ;
AUDJPY is still correcting this massive gap and getting a little lower before getting up again and reaching the blue zone.
However the ground is not super strong and it could break and become an interesting short posision.
US100 NEXT STEPAfter a successful long entry for today, US100 will reach a HH, reaching at the same time a KL and an uptrend limit ;
Then it is to plunge back to re establish the RSI which will drop a lot, showing a new HH coming soon after.
Remember : this is a 1D uptrend case, no matter what happens, it is going up after.
Nasdaq 100 Consolidates Ahead of Market Leader Earnings ReportsNasdaq 100 Consolidates Ahead of Major Market Leader Earnings Reports
This week, five companies with market capitalisations exceeding $1 trillion are set to release their quarterly earnings:
→ Alphabet (GOOGL) on October 29
→ Microsoft (MSFT) on October 30
→ Meta Platforms (META) on October 30
→ Apple (AAPL) on October 31
→ Amazon (AMZN) on October 31
These results and profit forecasts from leading tech giants could fuel momentum for the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen).
For now, technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) chart suggests the index is in a state of consolidation. Supporting this view:
→ The blue upward channel, based on key 2024 reversals (marked with bold lines), shows price movement near the channel median, indicating a potential balance between supply and demand.
→ A narrowing triangle formation (highlighted by purple lines, with the upper line aligning with the psychological level of 20,500) reflects a reduction in volatility, signalling consolidation in anticipation of the earnings releases.
→ A decline in the ATR indicator, reaching its lowest in approximately 3.5 months, also suggests subdued market activity.
If these tech earnings surprise to the upside, it’s possible the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) could break out of the purple triangle, setting its sights on a fresh all-time high, surpassing the previous peak from July 11.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
US100 H2 - Short SignalUS100 H2
Here is Nasdaq, a little different as compared to US30, we have price trading as close to ATH's as you could expect, with a couple of trading tops here from last week. We also saw a huge dump on Friday, that single H2 candle demonstrates a move of 180 points, followed by two more bearish candle closes to end the trading day and trading week.
That being said, markets opened and we gapped upside around +130 points, we have sustained this, just like US30. I'm wondering whether we reject this price level we have indicated at 20,500 price and selloff back down to 20,300 price. Seeing how Nasdaq moves, if it breaks or rejects, may give us a better steer on US30 trading opportunity.
US100 H4 - Short Signal US100 H4
A slightly higher timeframe here on US100 as compared to the previous US30 analysis, that being said, we have some very attractive trading zones here, 20,500 certainly in the crosshairs, a good area of confluence, ATH price, H4 supply, H4 resistance and a half number trading at 100 points. Which holds as a psychological price level.
You can see we set our alerts for the price, now we simply wait patiently, there are lots of setups to play and trade from this week. After a struggle last week, getting those first sniper entries banked is really important for us. Starting the week strong and picking the best of the bunch.
US100 H4 - Short Signal US100 H4
A slightly higher timeframe here on US100 as compared to the previous US30 analysis, that being said, we have some very attractive trading zones here, 20,500 certainly in the crosshairs, a good area of confluence, ATH price, H4 supply, H4 resistance and a half number trading at 100 points. Which holds as a psychological price level.
You can see we set our alerts for the price, now we simply wait patiently, there are lots of setups to play and trade from this week. After a struggle last week, getting those first sniper entries banked is really important for us. Starting the week strong and picking the best of the bunch.
Nasdaq going down. Very soon!Yes, the Koncorde is out of control and the structure cannot hold anymore.
Everything seems to be rising but held by threads, it doesn't have the strength to sustain that price.
I wouldn't short it. Instead, just wait for lower buying opportunities. I have sold my Nasdaq participations.
CleanSpark Rockets: All Targets Hit in 15-Minute Long TradeTechnical Analysis: CleanSpark – 15-Minute Timeframe (Long Trade)
CleanSpark showed strong bullish momentum, reaching all profit targets after entering the long trade at 9.06. This trade has concluded successfully with all targets achieved, confirming a solid upward trend.
Key Levels
Entry: 9.06 – The long position was entered following a clear bullish signal.
Stop-Loss (SL): 8.81 – Risk management was placed below the entry point.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 9.37 – First target met, validating the initial bullish trend.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 9.87 – Continued buying interest drove the price to the next target.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 10.37 – The uptrend remained intact, hitting the third profit level.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 10.68 – Final target achieved, confirming the trade's success.
Trend Analysis
The price remained well-supported by the Risological Dotted trendline, indicating strong upward momentum. Each target was hit as the price steadily moved in the long direction, with minimal retracement.
CleanSpark’s long trade demonstrated the power of catching the upward trend early. With all targets hit, this trade stands as an excellent example of precision and market timing.
Nasdaq Breakdown: Today’s Metrics and Analysis 18-OCT-2024Good morning, traders! As a seasoned price action trader, I'll share my Nasdaq insights to help you improve your trading skills.
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"Nasdaq could experience a significant drop in the coming days.""Dear everyone, NASDAQ may decline in the next few days. I'm currently in two trades."So let's see how things unfold."
As always, it's essential to apply proper money management and never trade without placing an appropriate stop-loss. Remember, trading is a game of probabilities, so your success should be measured over a series of trades, not just one.
Guys always read this quote.It will help you mentally."I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime. Even people who lose money in the market say, 'I just lost my money, now I have to do something to make it back.' No, you don't. You should sit there until you find something.” “Jim Rogers:
Thanks!
Nasdaq still unable to hit ATH despite Nvidia reboundFollowing Tuesday's drop, the markets stabilised on Wednesday in a quiet trade and now the S&P has hit a new record high, lifting the Nasdaq 100 with it. This is despite continued weakness in China, where the government’s latest attempt to shore up the property market, failed to lift sentiment overnight. The recovery has been driven by tech sector after results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. helped to soothe investor sentiment hurt by a profit warning from Dutch chip equipment maker ASML on Tuesday, something which hit US chipmakers across the board. There were also reports of the US limiting advanced AI chip sales which had also sparked some concern, after Nvidia stock took a plunge on Tuesday. But judging by today's price action, it looks like dip buyers have once again swooped in as they have done all year, with Nvidia also making back its losses and some. Betting against the market has been costly in 2024, with almost every dip being quickly bought up. But with the US election just three weeks away, it could be a bumpy ride from here.
For now, stock market investors are happy that central banks globally have been easing interest rates, with the European Central Bank cutting rates by another 25 basis points earlier today. While some of this has likely been priced in, the US presidential election looms large, and tight polls may drive some investors to take profits ahead of such a big risk event.
Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis and Trade Ideas
From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq 100 is still looking bullish and regardless of what we think might happen from a macro point of view, you have got to respect the charts and the trend. Until such a time there is a clear bearish reversal pattern on the chart, there is little point in trying to bet against the market. I will set out the scenario that could play out for the bears, though. As traders we have to be prepared for anything that could happen.
If you take a glance at the daily chart, you’ll notice the index has been consistently making higher highs and higher lows since it bottomed out in early August, following the unwind of the yen-funded carry trade. Since then, the Nasdaq has reclaimed the 21-day exponential moving average and broken through a few key resistance levels, which have now flipped to support. All signs point to the path of least resistance being to the upside—for now, anyway.
Key Levels to Watch
The bulls’ first line of defence sits around 20,285. The next key support is around the 19,900-20,025 area (shaded in green), which acted as support in the first week of October. At the moment, the bulls are targeting the next resistance zone between 20,465 and 20,685 (shaded in grey). This area was the point of origin of the breakdown back in July, and has now offered strong resistance on at least two occasions. This area now needs to break if we are to see a run towards the July peak of 20,759 in the coming days.
However, as mentioned, we know that anything can happen at any moment. It's crucial, therefore, to keep an eye on the charts for signs of a reversal. A break of key support levels could signal an opportunity to step aside or even go short if the trend shifts.
When to Get Bearish
If the market reverses today for whatever reason and turns lower, then that could be the first sign of trouble, particularly after Tuesday’s bearish close. This would imply the bulls, who bought the dip on Wednesday, are now getting stuck. But for me, a clearer sign of a reversal would be if that 19,900-20,025 gives way in the coming days, for then we will have formed our first lower low since the markets bottomed in August. A breakdown here could open the door for a deeper correction, possibly sending the index down toward the 200-day moving average.
But let’s not jump the gun. For now, it’s all about watching those key support levels and seeing if the bulls can keep control of the market. If they do, the uptrend remains intact. If not, we now know exactly what to look for.
Final thoughts
While the Nasdaq 100 has had an impressive run, caution is key as we head toward the US election. The bulls are still in control, but a sharp reversal is always possible. Keep an eye on key support levels, manage your risk, and be prepared for a shift in trend. For now, we remain cautiously optimistic, but in trading, anything can happen.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com