US100 Bearish SetupI see a H&S pattern forming on the 4H timeframe, price has broken previous support and broken the neckline, currently waiting for the retest of the neckline (resistance) to enter the trade with short positions down to TP. Please be sure to move your stop loss while you are 50 pips in profits. Hope you like the idea, if you did please comment or put a like.
Nasdaq100
Please God, Just One More Bubble. What Crying 2000's Are CallingChastened by the tech bust, venture capitalists and entrepreneurs have spent the last couple of years taking startups back to basics. No longer could they expect to turn an idea scribbled on a napkin into an instant company and cash out in a couple of years. To get funding and go public, companies had to have solid technology and business models, experienced management, reasonable valuations -- and, above all, profits. This reassuring regime made it easy to laugh at a bumper sticker sighted around the Valley last year: "Please God, just one more bubble."
Now, it looks less like a joke than a warning. Too many tech investors, from Wall Street to Sand Hill Road, seem to be ignoring why they crashed after the 1990s hit a dead end. Venture capitalists are pouring money into look-alike startups in nascent sectors such as social networking. Even after a recent swoon, stocks of some dot-coms, such as eBay Inc. (EBAY ), look pricey. And not only are more money-losing companies going public, initial valuations can be distinctly frothy. Google Inc.'s imminent offering, for instance, could value the search engine phenom at $36 billion. Says Bill Burnham, managing partner of the VC firm Softbank Capital Partners: "Some people expect the good old days will be back and they can party like it's 1999."
Indeed, the rise in shaky initial public offerings may be the most worrisome indicator that not all investors have learned their lesson. Some 44% of the companies going public so far this year were losing money, compared with only 30% last year, according to the investment bank Renaissance Capital. "They've lowered the bar," says Renaissance analyst Paul Bard. Why? "The VCs are pushing their companies to go out," says Jef Graham, CEO of networking startup Peribit Networks Inc., which has held off going public for now. "Bankers are like sharks smelling blood in the water."
That was a part of Bloomberg publication , dated on August 25, 2004.
It's gone 20 years or so..
- Something changed?
- Nope. Nasdaq-100 is near the same 'red lines'.
Nasdaq February Monthly Review – Contin.Refer to the previous post regarding Feb Monthly Analysis for part 1 of this post.
So as promised, here is the detailed analysis of each of the Feb month’s entries, marked with number’s on the chart:
Trade 1:
Entry Point: 17254
Time of entry (GMT): +-8h30
Confirmations:
Market Pattern: DB formed on 1H TF with neckline broken. Also on the 31 Jan, price had travelled down more than the distance equal to the height of the day DT that had formed (marked in blue lines). From profit target (end point of the blue vertical line), probability is high that market will move back to retest the neckline of the market pattern. I like being part of a retest that is in the same direction as the overall trend
Fib: The Day candle on 31 January had closed with a spike down to the Day 0,50 fib level (fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.). Day fib levels are strong and a DB forming in the area of the D 0,50 fib level is a strong entry signal
Candlesticks: 31 Jan Day candle closed with a longish spike down to the D 0,50 fib + D EMA
S&R: Strong dynamic support provided by the D EMA
Trend lines: The trend is your friend - taking a buy in a bullish market will always get you the most pips because rallies can often run for longer than you expect (buy the dip)
Stop loss: Half the height of the DB i.e.. At 17175,9
Draw Down pips: 754 pips
TP points: TP1 = 17963 (fib level -0,27)
TP2 = 18348,8 (fib level -0,618)
Fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.)
Both TPs hit
Close half your position at TP1 and the other half at TP2
Profit in pips: 10’943
Comments: Successful trade
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Trade 2:
Entry Point: 17607
Time of entry (GMT): 21h00
Confirmations:
Market Pattern: Db formed on the 15min TF, with strong momentum candle breaking the neckline.
Fib: DB formed by the Day 0,618 fib level (fib drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D.) 0,618 fib levels are very strong especially on the D TF
Candlesticks: On the 15min TF, there is a long wick hammer candle right by the D 0,618 fib level + strong momentum green candles on the 15min TF to break the neckline of the DB.
S&R: DB formed by a strong Day S&R zone + D EMA right by this zone providing dynamic support
Trend lines: The trend is your friend - taking a buy in a bullish market will always get you the most pips because rallies can often run for longer than you expect
Stop loss: Half the height of the DB i.e. At 17531
Draw Down pips: 137 pips
TP points: TP1 = 18293,2 (fib level -0,27)
TP2 = 18617 (fib level -0,618)
(Fib drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D.)
Plan is to close half your position at TP1 and the other half at TP2
Profit in pips: zero
Comments: This trade did not work out - ultimately price came down and took the trade out at entry - Market moved up 3504 pips from entry
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trade 3:
Entry Point: 17364
Time of entry (GMT): 20h30
Confirmations:
Market Pattern: A huge DT formed on the D TF with a break of the neckline (neckline and profit target (ie same distance as height of market pattern) marked in orange lines). Price travelled the full distance of the profit target. End of profit target (end of the orange vertical line coincides perfectly with Week 0,382 fib level). Market has a high probability of retesting the neckline of the market pattern after reaching the profit target. I like being part of a retest that is in the same direction as the overall trend. DB formed on the 15min TF at this level with a break of the neckline.
Fib: 15min DB formed right at the W 0,382 fib level
Candlesticks: None
S&R: Strong Day support level + 4H 200 EMA
Trend lines: The trend is your friend - taking a buy in a bullish market will always get you the most pips because rallies can often run for longer than you expect
Stop loss: Half the height of the DB ie. At 17333
Draw Down pips: zero
TP points: TP1 = 18542 (fib level -0,27)
TP2 = 19189 (fib level -0,618)
Fib drawn from swing low at E. to swing high at D.
Plan is to close half your position at TP1 and the other half at TP2
Profit in pips: still in progress
Comments: Trade still in progress - market has moved 10'923 pips from entry
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trade 4:
Entry Point: 17834,6
Time of entry (GMT): 13h30
Confirmations:
Market Pattern: DB formed on 30min TF right at the W 0,382 fib level + D 0,382 fib level. Enter at break of the neckline.
Fib: Area of confluence because Week and Day 0,382 fib levels coincide
Candlesticks: Long wick candle close on 30min TF piercing both the Fib levels but closing above
S&R: 4H support level + D EMA providing dynamic support
Trend lines: The trend is your friend - taking a buy in a bullish market will always get you the most pips because rallies can often run for longer than you expect
Stop loss: Half the height of the DB i.e. At 17825
Draw Down pips: 130 pips
TP points: TP1 = 18307,5 (fib level -0,27)
TP2 = 18581 (fib level -0,618)
Fib drawn from swing low at 3. to swing high at F.
Plan is to close half your position at TP1 and the other half at TP2
Profit in pips: TP1 hit + TP2 in progress
Comments: Tp1 hit at 4748 pips above entry
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you had taken these trades, you would have closed out on 15'691 pips of profit.
Always easier to pinpoint entries in hindsight - but the point of this exercise is to understand these entries and understand why you didn’t take them. This will connect the dots in your brain and then in future, you have a higher chance of spotting these high-quality entries and actually taking them.
Looking at the chart above, one can clearly see the trending market i.e. the market runs and pulls back…runs and pulls back. So you want to get in on the trend at the pull back (at retracement levels).
These are not the only high-quality entries - there were some good sells with the break of the DT necklines (marked in black lines).
But these are sells in a bullish market, so your TP's will never run as far as buys in a bullish market.
A note about stop losses on Nasdaq – my advice is not to set actual stop losses on MT4 or MT5 for your trades because Nasdaq is so volatile that it can often spike you out. Unfortunately, you need to use mental stops and use judgement with stop losses and see how candles CLOSE, not how candles spike.
Once price has moved a significant distance away from your position, you can secure at entry and trade risk free.
Screen time with this index will help you get the "feel" of this
I learnt from this analysis and hope you did too 😊
All the best for March month trading!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = Exponential moving average
DT = Double Top
DB = Double Bottom
Rally expansion with a correction to the degree ratioGreetings
Dear analysts and traders,
I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering different scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. It should be noted that I do not like to be surprised in the market, and that's why I have different market prospects. I follow them to be sure and recognize the structure that is forming so that I can 100% recognize it.
I will share my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is completely unbiased, so if the idea analysis meets your standards, you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision.
I have attached my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. However, having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily.
I have been studying the Elliott Wave Principle for almost three years now, and over time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has grown. What I have achieved so far is the legacy of a genius called Ralph Nelson Eliot, and I am really happy with my progress. May peace be upon him.
Thank you for your support so far. I will always remember your kindness. Please share your comments and criticisms with me.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
Sincerely,
Mr. Nobody
UPDATE: Nasdaq target 1 reached next one even higher116,956 target reached easily.
This was based off the W Formation and the price breaking above the neckline.
Then we had the run up which surpassed the first target of 16,956 - Text book.
Now the price is heading to the next target at 18,800. This is purely based off a momentum trending strategy.
The bull run is not over until it's over...
So trade cautiously and trade within the trend.
If you're predicting tops, EGO is taking over.
If you're predicting tops, Gambling mentality is lurking.
If you're trading tops - You feel you have something to prove.
Simple.
Comparative analysis. Fractals. Bitcoin and Nasdaq. Lagging.Logarithm. Assignment in three days. Formations "Bowl". There is a fractal similarity.
The Nasdaq index is "ahead." The price is now at $15,237 after a nearly vertical strong price rise from the last consolidation of +18.21%. Note the price levels and their values on the CME.
Bitcoin lags noticeably if this fractal structure is realized, but the % ratio targets are also an order of magnitude higher due to lower liquidity.
BTC secondary trend (part).
This bitcoin reversal zone was shown here.
BTC/USD Secondary trend. Medium-term work. Pivot zone
Save or increase, if you can trade successfully — your digital gold for “central banks” .
Nasdaq Prepares for Data Impact Amidst Rate Cut SpeculationsAs investors gear up for this week's consumer and producer price data, Nasdaq ended Monday's session with slight declines, fueling anticipation regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate adjustments in the upcoming months.
Technically, Nasdaq exhibited a double top formation around the 18400 level, accompanied by RSI indicator divergence. Analysts are eyeing a potential breakdown of the neckline around 17800, with targets set at 17700 and below.
Expectations are high for U.S. consumer price data for February, projecting a monthly increase of 0.4% and a 3.1% rise on an annual basis. The release of this data is poised to significantly impact the markets and potentially confirm the outlined technical analysis.
Last month, the stock market's rally witnessed a slowdown as robust economic indicators emerged, prompting traders to delay their expectations for the first Fed rate cut from March to June.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 11 Feb 2024 I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am
During analysis noted the following:
Large DT formed on the 4H (marked with black lines)
Sellers fib (drawn from swing high at D. to swing low at E.) indcated that price retraced to Sellers 0,382 fib level + pivot (at C.) and price now moving down
Price consolidating above a very strong D support level (marked in grey zone highlight), with D EMA in the area - would need strong bearish push to break this support zone
2 x long wick candles on 4H TF touching this support zone, indicating that there is buying power at this zone.
Would like to see a nice DB with neckline break before entering a buy
Entered a buy at A. - Confirmations:
Market Patterns: Break of the neckline of a DB formed on the 1H TF
S&R / EMA: DB formed at strong Day support zone with D EMA in the area, providing dynamic support
Fib: DB formed just above the W 0,382 fib level
Trend: Entering a buy means trading in the same direction as the overall bullish trend - The trend is your friend
Candlesticks: 2 x 4H long wick candles rejecting the strong Day support zone
Mental stop place halfway down the height of the market pattern.
Market moved down with momentum and I closed this position at stop loss
Re-entered a buy at B. based on similar confirmations.
The two long wick candles on the 1H TF (one in red and one just at B.) indicated to me that bulls were stepping in at the D support zone.
Ultimately, market came down again and I closed this position also in a loss.
Total pips loss for the day was 1900, because in the second entry I wanted to make sure that bulls would not step in again.
After this loss, I decided to stay out for the rest of the day!
What could I have done differently?
I think that seeing that market retraced to seller's 0,382 fib + moving down, should have been a strong indication to me that a sell was in play, possible till Seller’s TP1.
I should have waited for the extra confirmation of a neckline re-test before entering.
Hope you had a better day than me!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = Exponential moving average
DT = Double Top
DB = Double Bottom
A Weak Dollar Is the Driver of Price Records for NASDAQ-100A Weak Dollar Is the Driver of Price Records for NASDAQ-100, BTC/USD, XAU/USD
Financial market participants expect an easing of the Fed's monetary policy. The prospect of lower rates puts pressure on the value of the dollar, which in turn pushes up dollar-denominated assets. This contributed to the setting of record highs:
→ The price of BTC/USD exceeded 70k dollars per bitcoin
→ The price of XAU/USD exceeded USD 2,200 per ounce of gold
→ The NASDAQ-100 index reached 18,400 points.
But are markets too optimistic? Let's see what the technical analysis of the NASDAQ-100 chart shows today:
→ The price is in an uptrend (shown in blue), which has been in effect since the beginning of the year. The price is in the upper half, which may indicate the strength of demand.
→ Top C only slightly exceeded the level of the previous top A. It is not surprising that a bearish divergence has formed on the oscillators — Awesome Osc among them. Buyers who entered long positions at the breakout of top A found themselves in a trap. Sellers who held stops above A lost their positions.
Pay attention to the nature of the NASDAQ-100 price movement from tops to local lows A→B and C→D. Each time, the bears were able to quickly lower the price as soon as it exceeded the 18.333 level. This indicates that sellers are active — perhaps they are taking profits after the rally since the beginning of the year.
One way or another, the level of 18.333 looks like an important resistance. So far, the price of NASDAQ-100 is at support from the median line of the channel, but it is possible, given the signs of exhaustion of demand and the activity of sellers, that the price may fall to its lower border, forming a correction. This may happen under the influence of news — today, be prepared, at 15:30 GMT+3 data on inflation in the United States will be published.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nasdaq February Monthly ReviewNasdaq - Feb Month Analysis
I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post February review and analysis in case it can help you!
Looking back at February, I want to review if I took the best trades for the month.
The Day TF provides me with the strongest confirmations and the most profitable trades.
This timeframe provides me with my bread and butter each month, so I need to make sure that I am taking these trades and getting the most out of them.
Have a look at what I believe where the best trades for February and see how many you took. If you didn’t take a trade, try to understand why you missed it.
This way you will increase your chances of getting into these trades in the future.
For Feb, there were 4 trades to be taken - trades marked in numbers on the chart.
Of course, there were many other profitable trades in Feb....but these are my "bread and butter" trades.
Tomorrow I will share a very detailed analysis on entry points + confirmations + SL + TP expectations.
See if you can come to your own conclusion on these 4 trades and then tomorrow we compare notes :)
APPLE $AAPL - Feb. 23rd, 2024APPLE NASDAQ:AAPL - Feb. 23rd, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $187.15 - $196.20 (can be extended to 185.00)
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $181.50 - $187.15 (can be shortened to 185.00)
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $175.40 - $181.50
Weekly: DNT
Daily: DNT, Lean Bearish
4H: Bearish
Currently would not enter in Apple, NASDAQ:AAPL , as I believe the current zone is untradeable, but something I would be looking for in the next week or so. Bulls could enter around 187.15, but an earlier entry might be above the current daily candle (also the current 4h structural high) around 185.00 or at the top of the bearish zone at 181.50. I did draw a bearish zone although I personally would not be looking to go short. The daily timeframe is lean bearish because the most recent level break was to the downside, weekly would need to see a new low (lower than the most recent two weeks) or a close below level 181.50 to be switched to bearish. 4H has strong bearish structure despite seeing two green days out of the last three.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 7 Mar 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT
From my previous post you will know that I had a buy position at D. running.
As the morning progressed, market came down and the long wick at E. took out my D. position because I had secured at entry.
Waiting to see price action, I entered a buy at C. - Confirmations:
Fib: DB formed on the 1H TF (not marked on the graph but clear to see on the 1H TF at E.) at the 4H 0,618 fib level + Week 0,382 fib level
Market pattern: DB formed on 1H TF and neckline broken
Candle sticks: Long wick bullish candle on 1H TF (at E.) + strong bullish momentum candle to break the neckline
S&R + EMAs: DB formed at strong Day support level + D EMA providing dynamic support roughly in this area too
Trend line: None specifically but position is in the same direction as the overall trend (bullish in this case) - the trend is your friend
SL: Placed roughly halfway into the height of the market pattern, marked by the thick purple line
Tp's were determine using the fib drawn on the 4H TF (swing low = A. and swing high at the time was B. - se A. and B. on 1H TF and ignore on 4H TF on graph)
TP1 - 18240
TP 2 – 18360
Market moved well in my favor, ultimately creating a DB on the 4H TF (marked in black lines) with a neckline break and so interesting that the profit target (i.e. the same distance as the height of the market pattern) lined up perfectly with TP 1
On the 1H TF, price broke through the temporary down trend blue line at F and then a small red candle to re-test, before moving up again.
Took partial profit at TP1 and Finally closed my full position right up close to TP2 when a double top formed on the 15min TF.
Ultimately market moved 3586 pips from my C. position and I closed out at 3300 pips.
It was a goooooooooooood day! :)
What could I have done differently?
Entered a much MUCH bigger position! Haha!
Hope you caught this buy!
Good luck for NFP trading - think I will stay out today.
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = Exponential moving average
DT = Double Top
DB = Double Bottom
GITLAB: Elliott Waves and Reversals potentialGreetings, fellow investors! In this technical analysis, we explore the Elliott Wave patterns shaping the landscape of GitLab (NASDAQ: GITLAB). As of the current evaluation, the stock is positioned at a critical juncture, poised for the completion of wave 4, with a nuanced focus on the unfolding wave ((c)).
Wave 4 Overview:
Having traversed through waves 1, 2, and 3, GitLab now stands on the verge of concluding wave 4. This corrective phase sees the completion of both wave ((a)) and ((b)), entering the final leg of wave ((c)). Within this intricate phase, wave (i), (ii), (iii), and (iv) have successfully played out, setting the stage for the imminent completion of wave (v) within ((c)).
Key Support Levels:
Equality Extension: After achieving the equality of wave ((a)), GitLab has approached the extremes, reaching 1.618% of wave ((a)) in wave ((c)).
EMA Confluence: Notably, the 55-56 zones present a significant confluence, housing both the EMA 50 on the weekly timeframe, along with the EMA 200 & 100 on the daily timeframe.
Internal Wave Counts: Further reinforcing this critical level, internal wave counts align, adding weight to the potential reversal zone.
Anticipated Reversal and Targets:
With the confluence of technical factors at the 55-56 zones, there's a compelling case for a bullish reversal. A reversal from this level could offer a promising swing buy trade, signaling a northward trajectory to complete wave 5. This anticipated wave 5 has the potential to surpass the high of wave 3, pegged at 78+ levels.
Invalidation and Risk Management:
To safeguard against potential downside risks, a close below 55 is established as the invalidation level. This serves as a prudent measure to reevaluate the analysis in case of unexpected market movements.
Wave 5 Insights:
Wave 5, known for its impulse and directional strength, often exhibits a final burst of buying or selling pressure. Traders should be vigilant for signs of divergence, volume spikes, or other confirmatory signals as wave 5 unfolds, enhancing decision-making precision.
Remember, the market is dynamic, and risk management is paramount. This analysis is not financial advice but aims to provide an educational perspective on GitLab's potential future movements.
Happy Learnings!
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Wednesday 6 March 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am
On 5 March I entered buy positions at C.
Refer to that post for confirmations
Market moved up, breaking the 1H neckline and retesting the neckline at E.
Bulls pushed through all obstacles (i.e. various EMA's and pivot point)
Ultimately though, bears stepped in on sellers 0,618 fib level (at D.) and pushed down heavily
Bulls were unable to close above the 4H EMA - meaning that the 4H EMA will be a strong resistance on 7 March.
A large double top formed with neckline and profit target (height of the market pattern) marked in black lines
Bears broke the neckline down, with a neckline retest at F. and market pushed down further.
Ultimately market moved 2594 pips from my entry and I closed half my position in the region of F. (1344 pips)
Reason for closing at F. = bearish market pattern with neckline break
The remaining half of my position will be left running and hope that NFP will buy tomorrow, otherwise I will be taken out at entry.
I suspect that market may be weird today as we approach NFP tomorrow.
What could I have done differently?
No very happy with the pips I grabbed. I feel I should have closed out more pips since market moved so high.
Looking at the 30min chart, there is a clear DT (at D.) and I should have taken profit at break of this neckline
This would have meant I would have secured 630 pips more
Bulls were so strong throughout the day and I was hoping that buyers would step in again at the 1H EMA.
But a double top on the 30min TF at a seller's 0.618 fib level cannot be ignored!
Happy Trading! :)
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = Exponential moving average
DT = Double Top
DB = Double Bottom
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 5 March 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am
During analysis noted the following:
So following on from Monday's analysis, I had identified the yellow highlighted area as my "Zone 2" area of interest
This was a strong area of confluence because:
It was the 4H 0,618 fib level (drawn from swing low at A to swing high at B)
+ Day 0,382 fib level
+ 4H EMA (position during the morning roughly marked in green)
I entered a pretty big buy at C. and set my stop loss really low at the orange thick line.
Ultimately I watched my position tank and took a big loss.
This scenario has caught me out many times before.
I know that before entering at a fib level, one should wait for price action to confirm the reversal.
If you look at the price action at C. level, there is clearly no price action indicating a reversal.
But if you trade Nasdaq and you know this index well, you will know that Nasdaq very often does not give price action confirmation on the bigger timeframes (15min and above)
You see it all the time how Nasdaq will dip down touch an area and the spike back up, leaving a loooooong wick candle of a hundreds of pips.
Some of my most profitable trades have been entering at these levels without price action confirmation. But like yesterday, it can also bite me in the behind.
I still haven't figured this out yet. Maybe there is confirmation on a lower timeframe?
If you know what I mean and have an antidote, please let me know! ;)
My next area of interest was the green highlighted zone. This represented an area of confluence because:
The D EMA was at this level
This was also the Week 0,50 fib level
This time I did wait for price action confirmation :) And in typical Nasdaq style, it only gave it to me way above my area i.e. 600 pips above where I would've wanted to enter (see what I mean).
So I entered at D. - Confirmations:
Market Pattern - a DB had formed on the 15min TF with a break of the neckline
Candlesticks - neckline break with strong momentum candle
Fib - W 0,50 fib level and market moving up
S&R - Dynamic support from the D EMA
Market moved up and I have secured my positions at entry, so trading risk free today.
I hope market moves well today. Lots of news so could be choppy!
What could I have done differently?
Still trying to figure it out, but on the surface, I don’t think I could have done anything different other than cutting my losses sooner.
As said, this strategy often pays off for me.
All the best!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = Exponential moving average
DT = Double Top
DB = Double Bottom
Nasdaq - Now Is The TimeHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 10 years the Nasdaq has been trading in an obvious rising channel formation and retested the lower support the last time in 2023. This retest was followed by an expected 65% pump. Considering that Nasdaq is now retesting resistance as mentioned in the analysis, I do expect a short term pullback to retest the next support level below current market price.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
NASDAQ Hits Record Highs:A Short-Term Correction on the Horizon?Last week witnessed the Nasdaq soaring to new heights, surging to an all-time high of 18,346 during the European session. However, amidst this bullish fervor, indications of a possible retracement loom on the horizon.
As the Nasdaq index ventures into overbought territory, as evidenced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), investors are cautiously eyeing a potential reversal. With the RSI signaling overbought conditions, market sentiment suggests a corrective move, with the 18,000 level emerging as a plausible target for price adjustment before contemplating further bullish momentum.
In the realm of economic events, this week's agenda is marked by significant announcements. Today, investors eagerly await the release of the Sentix Investor Confidence data for March, which could offer insights into market sentiment and future investment outlooks.
Looking ahead, all eyes turn to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's semi-annual monetary policy report and congressional testimony scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. Powell's remarks are anticipated to provide clarity on the Fed's stance regarding interest rates and monetary policy measures, potentially influencing market sentiment and investor behavior.
Simultaneously, Thursday brings forth the highly anticipated monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB's announcement will shed light on its policy outlook and potential measures to address economic challenges, offering valuable cues for market participants.
In light of these developments, investors are preparing for a short setup, anticipating a temporary correction in the Nasdaq's upward trajectory. While record highs have been achieved, prudent risk management strategies are in place to navigate potential market fluctuations and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 4 March 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am (just before 1am EST)
Looking exclusively for a buy because "the trend is your friend"
During analysis noted the following:
Price consolidating in a triangle on 1H (marked by blue circle)
I feel the market will retrace today
Two interest zones identified
Zone 1:
Area of confluence because -
Pivot point
4H 0,382 fib level (fib drawn from swing low at A to swing high at B)
Market pattern - Just past profit target if a double top forms; market tends to reverse at or near profit target to re-test the neckline. I like being part of a re-test that is the same as the overall trend (bullish in this case)
Zone 2:
Area of confluence because -
4H 0,618 fib level
D 0,382 fib level
4H EMA (was in this region at time of analysis and throughout the day)
I set buy limits at each zone as follows:
A smallish buy position at Zone 1, because for me the confirmations are not soo strong and it really depends on price action so I will judge the market sentiment based on candles to see if I add more
A large buy position at Zone 2, because these are strong confirmations and price should at least bounce from here.
Ultimately a DT did form and break the neckline down. But market was very slow and none of my zones of interest were triggered.
In the evening, I cancelled my buy order in Zone 1 because I felt market was very slow and I wouldn’t get the reaction that I wanted in this area.
Clearly, investors are waiting for the inflationary data this week.
What could I have done differently?
Nothing
Hope you had a good trading day! :)
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = Exponential moving average
DT = Double Top
DB = Double Bottom
NASDAQ ANALYSISChart : 4Hour
Overall Trend : Bullish
Current Market Structure : Downtrend
Scenario 1 :
We are overall very much bullish on Nasdaq , we are looking into getting in on buys at a very discounted price . We can look at a 4Hour demand areas that put in a new all time high on Nasdaq .
Possible buys from that demand area.
So I will be looking for short term selling opportunities in the market for now as price needs to fill imbalance in the market .
( Counter Trend Trade )
Will look for buying opportunities at 18100 area