Copper futures. Disinflation is almost there to comeCopper futures fell further to around $3.8 per pound, marking a weekly loss driven by concerns over demand from China and heightened US interest rates.
China's manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month in January, contributing to the negative sentiment.
With a robust US jobs report, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March have diminished.
Weaker Q1 industrial activity is expected to dampen demand, although Glencore's projected 5% production decline in 2023, along with an anticipated additional drop in 2024, could offset this.
Despite these challenges, there is still hope that China will implement measures to stabilize its economy.
Technical graph illustrates also, 5-years SMA is a massive long term support in this time for Copper futures COMEX:HG1! , as it breakthrough can deliver solid further losses for Copper futures prices, like in 2020 (30% off), in 2014-16 (40% off) and in 2008-09 (50% off).
Nasdaq100
NASDAQ ANALYSIS💸NASDAQ💸
Chart : 4Hour
Overall Trend : Bullish
Current Market Structure : Consolidation
Scenario 1 :
Market has been respecting our supply area at 17690 , As you can see price is failing to break above this area .
we can look for short term selling set ups if the market gives us one . We trade on confirmation only .
If we do get a break to the downside , we will be targeting the following demand area at 17200.
Wolfe Research thinks NAS100 moves higherWolfe Research thinks NAS100 moves higher
Several mega-cap entities, including Meta and Nvidia, are propping up the Nasdaq 100, following Jerome Powell's 60 Minutes interview on Sunday, which has further diminished the likelihood of a March rate cut (currently below 20%, according to the Financial Times).
Potential support zones might materialize around the 17,450 and 17,100 levels, with the latter representing the bottom of last week's significant wick. Positioned just above this level is the 20-day moving average.
Short-term declines could be possible entry opportunities into the market, with a particular focus on the support levels. Wolfe Research anticipates the market's upward grind to persist until U.S. economic growth expectations diverge from current projections, with smaller-cap stocks overperforming as they play catch-up to their mega-cap counterparts. The first resistance worth monitoring appears near 17,600, roughly aligning with the all-time highs for the index.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 07/02/2024We are looking at wave (3) in the higher time frame. Wave 1 of wave (3) could be finished or we had a relatively short wave (3). This is unclear for now. We reached the limits of the bearish scenario, we need to see downside from the current level.
Nasdaq-100 H4 | Falling to pullback supportThe Nasdaq-100 (NAS100) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 17,539.30
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 17,380.05
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 17,784.29
Why we like it:
There is a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level
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NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 05/02/2024 (+ HTF)We are looking at wave (3) in the higher time frame. Wave 1 of wave (3) could be finished or we had a relatively short wave (3). This is unclear for now. We reached the limits of the bearish scenario, we need to see downside from the current level.
NDX / 4H / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NASDAQ:NDX The support level at 16019 indicates the formation of a bearish wedge pattern and an AB=CD pattern. I have identified my targets on the chart based on these formations.
Like and comment if you find value in our analysis.
Feel free to post your ideas and questions at the comments section.
Good luck
NASDAQ100 Slows Down For An Intraday CorrectionNasdaq100 is in strong bullish trend and there can be room for more upside within a projected intraday five-wave bullish cycle. Nasdaq100 futures recently slide as Alphabet shares drop on disappointing Google ad revenue. However, that's pretty nice textbook 17300 - 17200 support area within an (a)-(b)-(c) correction for wave "iv", so ahead of today's FED meeting, be aware of a bullish continuation for wave "v". Invalidation level is at 17050.
Nasdaq-100 H1 | Potential bearish reversalThe Nasdaq-100 (NAS100) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 17,336.83 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 17,550.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 17060.59 which is an overlap support that lies above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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NASDAQ Falls by 1.5% after Tech Giants ReportsNASDAQ Falls by 1.5% after Tech Giants Reports
NASDAQ E-Mini futures fell 1.5% in early trading after the publication of quarterly earnings reports from technology giants Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD):
→ The parent company of Google, Alphabet Inc., reported revenue of 86.3 billion dollars (forecast = 85.2), however, the slowdown in advertising revenue – the most important article in the company's revenue – caused the price of GOOG shares to drop by 2.7% after publication report
→ Microsoft's revenue amounted to 62.0 billion US dollars, increasing by 10% (forecast = 61.2%). Despite the high performance of the cloud segment Azure, the price of Microsoft shares decreased by 3.2% after the publication. Perhaps the MSFT stock market is overbought due to the extreme optimism associated with AI implementation.
→ AMD, the leading semiconductor manufacturing company, also exceeded expectations. Its income was 6.16 billion US dollars (forecast = 6.12). However, the company made a cautious forecast for the next quarter. The price of AMD shares fell by 4.5%.
The cumulative effect of these messages strongly influenced the price of the NASDAQ E-Mini index. Perhaps the market is “letting off steam” after the impressive growth that began in 2023. MarketWatch conveys the opinions of JPMorgan analysts — they believe that today's stock market, which is dominated by large technology companies, has signs of a dotcom bubble.
The NASDAQ 100 chart shows that:
→ price forms a bear pattern head-and-shoulders;
→ the price is located near the support block, which forms the median line of the ascending channel (shown in blue) and the support level is 17333.
If bearish sentiments intensify at the opening of the main trading session, the bears can break through the specified support block and direct the price to the block that forms the psychological level of 17,000 and the lower border of the channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 31/01/2024We are looking at wave (3) in the higher time frame. Wave 1 of wave (3) could be finished or we had a relatively short wave (3). This is unclear for now. We reached the limits of the bearish scenario, we need to see downside from the current level.
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Monday 29 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am.
My feeling about today’s price action was that price would just consolidate as we all wait for this action packed week to kick off.
No amount of technical analysis will help – bears or bulls will step in depending on the earnings + guidance provided this week and FOMC.
My ideal plan would be to get a buy in as low as possible and then hopefully market would start pushing up in anticipation for the earnings on Tuesday. Then I would just hold as I expect earnings + guidance to be good and a further rally to ensue.
At time of analysis I noted the following:
Formation of a consolidation triangle (marked with turquoise lines)
Double top had formed on 1H TF (marked at yellow dot with purple lines), reached profit target (at B.) and now coming back to test neckline
Bears stepped in previously at A. (as seen by the red candles at A. on the 1H TF) but support of pivot point and 30min + 4H EMA was holding strong.
Turquoise uptrend line confirmed with 3rd touch and close above at B. therefore validating this uptrend line.
Green doji candle close on 1H TF at C.
I entered a buy at D. – confirmations:
S&R – price respecting 30min EMA well (when market is very bullish then this EMA is respected). When price started closing above the 1H EMA and 4H EMA, I knew that these EMA’s would not act as resistance.
Candlesticks – 1H green doji right on pivot point
Fib – none
Trendline – Turquoise uptrend line respected
It was an aggressive entry as 1H neckline still had not been broken through, but I felt that if market was going to drop from the neckline, then it would have done so at A. already.
Due to aggressive nature of this entry, I entered only 20% of my usual position size.
Mental stop was placed at thick pink line.
Market moved up, I secured at entry but bulls could not break through the 4H neckline at E. on this attempt.
Unfortunately, market came back down to take me out at entry.
I decided to stay out as market was choppy.
Unfortunately, price eventually took off without me. So I missed out on the move that I was anticipating and hoping for.
But Nasdaq is never short of entry opportunities, and I live to trade another day.
Hope you caught the buy!
What could I have done differently:
I should have set a buy limit at B. the night before, because price had not travelled the full distance as the height of the market pattern at the yellow dot.
This would have been such a great level to enter and hold for earnings!
Next time ;)
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
BTC VS NDX. FOLLOWING THE BEARISH SCENARIOPreviously in the Series..
👉 Launch of BTC futures on December 18, 2017
Bitcoin is down more than 10 percent in a week and crashed 80+ percent in a year.
👉 Launch of trading on Coinbase IPO NASDAQ:COIN on April 14, 2021
Bitcoin is down more than 10 percent for the week and crashed 50+ percent for the quarter.
👉 Launch of AMEX:BITO - the first fund based on BTC futures, on October 19, 2021
Bitcoin is down more than 10 percent in a week and crashed 80+ percent in a year.
👉 Launch of ̶G̶i̶p̶s̶y̶ ̶C̶a̶m̶p̶ 11 ETFs on BTC, incl. on BTC spot, on January 11, 2024.
Bitcoin has slumped by more than 10 percent in a week and further losing its shores.
The main technical graph is a ratio between Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD and NASDAQ:NDX Nasdaq-100 Index.
Indeed, BTC underperforms against NDX, almost for a 3 years in a row..
But blind faith is ineradicable..
Who knows, what BTC halving has to say..
The truth is One and Only - just trend is your real friend ! 😄
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Friday 26 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
I'm reading a trade phycology book called the "Mental Game of Trading" by Jared Tendler.
In it he explains that each trader has a C-game (where all your worst mistakes are made), a B-game (where you are a little bit profitable but are still making some mistakes) and an A-game (where you are really performing well).
Today, I was making every single mistake in my C-game.
Trading against the trend, cutting trades too soon, flip-flopping from a sell to a buy and chasing price.
Don't know what the hell happened, that I suddenly made all these mistakes.
But I am out for the day (at a loss, of course).
Not trading when I am clearly in my C-game mentality!
Disaster ;(
But despite my horrible trading day....January has been my most profitable trading month ever.
Bad days happen - one bad trading day does not make you a bad trader (don't let it get you down - just learn from it).
Hope you are having a better day....good luck!
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Thursday 25 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am.
Looking exclusively for a buy – “The trend is your friend”
Tesla earnings came in below expectations and Tesla execs advised of lower growth for 2024. Not good.
Risk for the day was that Nasdaq might take a dip based on Tesla Earnings release.
But what makes trading in ”earnings week/s” hard is that you never how what investors will be sensitive to.
At time of analysis I noted the following:
A double bottom had formed on the 1H TF (marked by black lines).
Market was tracking a temporary uptrend line (marked in purple).
1H and 30min EMA + pivot point was above the candles (so bulls would need some strength to break through and would they have it after Tesla earnings?)
Long wick candles had formed on the 1H TF rejecting the 0.50 buy fib level (fib drawn from swing low at B. to swing high at D.)
A massive head and shoulders pattern had formed on the 1H TF (indicated by the pink lines)
The neckline of this pink pattern was just above the 1H EMA, so a big chance for bears to step in and cause a big push down.
I entered a buy at A. (at 60% of my usual position size) – Confirmations:
Fib – candles rejecting the 0.50 buy fib level
Candlesticks – long wick candles on the 1H TF
Market pattern – break of the neckline of the double bottom on the 1H TF
Trendline – market respecting the purple uptrend line
An aggressive entry, especially based on what bulls had to break through after negative Telsa news.
Mental stop loss placed by the thick pink line – if candles started breaking below 0.50 fib level then buy is invalidated.
Bears fought hard at the neckline of the 1H head and shoulders, you can see the two red candles after A.
Eventually bulls came out victorious and market pushed up.
On New York open, market pushed down heavily to retest the pivot point and seems now (at time of writing) to be moving up.
I closed 50% of my position when I noted that market open might push down hard. It can often be the case that New York has a totally different sentiment to the earlier traders and I was sensitive again to the bad Tesla earnings.
Luckily I still have quite a significant runner open and will judge by price action on when to take profit – but rough plan is to maybe take profit once more today and consider leaving a runner for next week’s (hopefully) good earnings from some of the Magnificent Seven stocks.
What could I have done differently:
Sounds all good and easy on paper…but the reality is that I chickened out at E. and closed my full position.
I re-entered again at about A. when I saw bulls regaining strength.
I was super scared that bears would dominate, as the potential move down (the same distance as the height of the pattern) could have been to C.
One of my development goals currently is learning to stick to my trade plan. Market was not at my stop loss and I acted out of fear. These small losses eat away unnecessarily at profit.
Hope you navigated the market well today…it was a tough one!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 24 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am.
Looking exclusively for a buy – “The trend is your friend”
Netflix earnings came in showing good forecasts
Risk for the day was that there may be hesitancy for traders to step into the market, as we wait for Tesla to report.
At time of analysis I noted the following:
Temporary pink downtrend line had been broken and retested at A. (also retest of pivot).
Candles showing strong bull presence in the market (green momentum candles on 1H and 4H candles are all green).
Rising wedge formation noted and marked in green lines
1H 20 EMA is tracking the dark blue trend line almost perfectly
If market retraces, I would enter a buy with my full position size.
Watching price action, I entered a buy at C. (at 20% of my usual position size). Confirmations:
Market Pattern – Rising wedge formation formed on the 1H TF. Usually this pattern breaks to the downside but can break either way. Market broke to the upside this time.
News – Netflix earning release + forecast were really good
This was an aggressive entry – lack of strong confirmations. I usually don’t like buying at the peak, hence my small position size.
But market sentiment was extremely bullish. Market pushed up, broke through the top line of the Day ascending wedge (marked in light blue), retested at E. and took off from there.
Ultimately market moved up 1800 pips from my position.
Logically I would have liked to close half my position size at the peak and leave the rest running in case Tesla earnings came out well and market moved further up. However, candles did not give a clear reversal pattern on the lower TF and by the time it did, the monetary value was not significant enough for me to actually take profit.
I decided that because it was such an aggressive entry, that I might as well be aggressive and keep the whole position open and see what Tesla earnings does.
Unfortunately for me, market came crashing down and I was out at entry with ZERO pips for the day.
What could I have done differently:
At the time market reversed, I was no longer in front of my trading screens and was monitoring on my phone. My ability to judge and “feel” a shift in sentiment from the price action is significantly reduced. I think that if I was in front of my screens I would have taken partial profits, but we can’t be in front of the screens 24/7.
Ultimately, I will never regret a situation where I decide to be aggressive and then am out at entry. If Telsa had come out differently I would have been smiling all the way to the bank, so, happy to have taken that “go big or go home” risk.
Hope you made some good bucks out of this move!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 25/01/2024We are looking at wave (3) in the higher time frame. Wave 1 of wave (3) could be finished or we had a relatively short wave (3). This is unclear for now. We reached the limits of the bearish scenario, we need to see downside from the current level.
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Tuesday 23 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am.
At time of analysis I noted the following:
I still had some buy positions running from yesterday.
Noted that the early morning bulls had pushed up and were respecting the orange uptrend line.
Unfortunately, bulls could not break through the pivot point and a double top formed close to C. on the 1H TF.
When a doji candle closed at C. (bulls again not able to break through pivot point, which was also the 0.382 Fib sell retracement level (fib drawn from swing high at A. to swing low at B.)) – I knew market would sell and I closed all my buys from yesterday at a small loss.
In my trading style, I would only want to trade with the trend (the trend is your friend). I felt like Nasdaq would not buy any further today until we have earnings forecasts on the table which justify a further rally. That would not come during the trading day today, because we are all waiting for Netflix tonight and Tesla tomorrow.
Until there is a bigger TF confirmation of a sell, I am not interested in taking intraday sells on such a strong bull trend.
My view was that market would consolidate and be choppy today. Judging by the price action, I feel it was.
I did not enter again today but I do have a buy limit at E. because this is an area of confluence:
Market pattern – At this level price would have moved down the same distance as the height of the 4H Head & Shoulders and would most probably retest the neckline. I like being part of a re-test that is in the same direction as the overall trend.
S&R: 4H EMA is in this region
Fib: this area is close to the 0.618 buy fib level and also in the proximity of the sellers TP2.
What could I have done differently:
Glad I stayed out today.
Hope you managed to squeeze out some pips!
Although not for me personally, the sell from D. was nice – 0.618 sell fib + 4H neckline + 1H & 4H market pattern (timeframe confluence).
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average