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Nasdaq100

NASDAQ \ US100 - AnalysisNASDAQ \ US100 MN - The price has risen by more than 50% without corrective movements W1 - After the trend line is broken, a downward movement can potentially form, which will lead to a correction on the MN timeframe and the formation of the Head and Shoulders pattern. In case of its implementation, we can expect the price to rise to the level of 14553 and further decrease to 13460. What can be expected now? If the formation is not false, then the nearest target is 15171 and further movement to 14710. Long term - targets 14553 - 13891 - 12870 Medium term - targets 15171 - 14907 - 14710
SKILLING:US100Short
by Trade_Hive_Signals
Exploring the Weekly OptionsCME: E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Weekly Options ($Q1D-$Q5D) When I first started trading two decades ago, I was overwhelmed by the amount of data that was available. I had a hard time correlating how data relates to price movement. While observing the stock market, I have one question in particular: why does the market often moves drastically immediately after the release of a major report? Over time, I learnt that these reports provide insight into how the economy works. New data validates our assumptions about the future. Take the United States as an example: • Consumers drive the U.S. economy; • Consumers need jobs to be able to buy things and keep the economy going; • The ebb and flow between the degree of joblessness and full employment drive economic activity up or down; • How easy or difficult for households and businesses to get credit affects consumption, jobs, and investment. The following reports have an outsized impact on global financial markets: • The Nonfarm Payroll Report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); • The Consumer Price Index, also published by the BLS; • Personal Income and Outlays, by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); • Gross Domestic Product (GDP), also by the BEA; • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, this is where the Federal Reserve sets the Fed Funds interest rates, ten times a year; • Interest rate actions by other central banks, including European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the People’s Bank of China. Binary Outcomes: Ideal Setting for Options Trading For these highly anticipated reports, investors usually reach a consensus on the expected impact of the new data prior to its release. Market price tends to price in such investor expectations. The next FOMC meeting is on September 20th. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the futures market currently expects a 94% probability that the Fed would keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged at the 5.25%-5.50% range. The September contract of CME Fed Funds Futures (ZQU3) is last settled at 94.665. This implies a Fed Funds rate of 5.335%, right in the middle of the target range. When new data is released, investors focus less on the actual data, but more on how it compares to the consensus. Because the prevailing price already reflected market expectation, new data serves to either confirm or dispute it. We could use a range of -1 to +1 to categorize these outcomes: • Well Below Expectations, -1; • Meet Expectations, 0; • Well Above Expectations, +1. The sign of the outcome does not necessarily correspond to a positive or negative price movement. It differs by the type of data and the respective financial instrument. We could further simplify the results into binary outcomes: • Within Expectation: 0, where actual data approximates previous expectation; • Beyond Expectation: 1, either below or above expectation by a pre-defined margin. Both human and computer think in binary terms: Light switch On or Off, Price goes Up or Down, Risk turns On or Off. In derivatives market, we could buy a Call Options if we expect the price to go up, and a Put Options if we think the price will decline. Weekly Options for Event-Driven Strategies The FOMC meeting is the most significant event that affects global markets. Market may stay calm if the Fed keeps rate unchanged (within expectation). However, if the Fed raises rate unexpectedly, you could hear investors screaming all around the world! To trade the Fed decision, investors could form different strategies using a wild variety of instruments, such as stock market indexes, Treasury bonds, forex futures, gold, WTI crude oil, and even bitcoin. Today, we focus on the Nasdaq 100 index. Here are some alternatives to consider: • Nasdaq 100 ETF: many asset managers offer them, including Invesco, iShares and ProShares. From a trader’s perspective, ETFs offer no leverage. A $100K exposure requires $100K upfront investment. If the market moves up 1%, you also gain 1%, minus the fees. • Nasdaq 100 Futures: CME Micro Nasdaq 100 ($MNQ) has a notional value of 2 times the index, valuing it at $31025, given the Nasdaq’s last close at 15512.5. Each contract requires initial margin of $1680. The futures contract is embedded with an 18.5-to-1 leverage. • Nasdaq 100 Options: As the nearby September contract expires on the 3rd Friday, or the 15th, ahead of the FOMC meeting date, we could not use it for our strategy. Instead, we could apply it with the December contract ($NQU3). On September 1st, the 15800-strike Call is quoted $541.50, and the 15400-strike Put is quoted $535. • Weekly Options: On September 1st, the 15800-strike Call to expire in one week is quoted $14.25, while the 15400-strike Put to expire in one week is quoted $54.50. Premiums for the standard American-style Options are expensive. They come with quarterly contracts and quarterly expirations. While our target date is September 20th, we have to use the December contract and acquire 3-1/2-month worth of time value. Weekly options, on the other hand, offer more precise trading and risk management with more expirations. Investors pay low premium to get the exposure they need and avoid the unnecessary and costly time value. For E-Mini Nasdaq 100, the weekly options that expire on Wednesday, September 20th will be listed on the prior Thursday, September 14th. If an investor forms an opinion about the FOMC decision, he could implement it with a weekly call or put next week. Nasdaq Weekly Options are deliverable contracts. If an investor owns a call and it expires in the money, he will settle the contract with a long position in E-Mini Nasdaq 100 futures. Likewise, if he owns an in-the-money put, he will get a short futures position. If the market moves in favor of an investor’s expectation, the potential payoff could be significant due to the leverage in weekly options. If the investor is incorrect, he could lose money, up to the amount of the entire premium. However, the low-premium nature in weekly options helps contain such loss at a tolerable level. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by JimHuangChicago
3
Indian and US market OutlookNifty has made a significant recovery after hitting a low of 19223 on August 31, 2023. According to Elliott Wave Theory, the Nifty made its low as Wave iv of Minute Degree Wave {iii} within Wave (i). Until November 2023, Wave (i) of Minute Degree Wave {iii} might drive the index toward 20400-20600. As Wave (ii) of Minute Degree Wave "{iii}," a pullback toward 19000 is what we can anticipate. On Friday, September 1, 2023, Banknifty may have completed Wave (ii) of Minute Degree Wave "{iii}." By November 2023, it may move toward 48800. The S&P 500 may rise as Wave (v) of Minute Degree Wave "{iii}" toward 4800. Minor Degree 1 and Minute Degree Wave {v} may peak between 4900 and 4950 till the year's end. Until November 2023, the Nasdaq 100 appears to be peaking as Minor Degree Wave 1 in the range of 16370 to 17450. In a sequence known as Wave 1-2 and 1-2, DJIA is expanding. Thus, given its current structure, the DJIA may outperform other major US indices through the end of the year.
NSE:NIFTY
by BISHNU_P_BASYAL
The Slight Depression - Why NFP Numbers aren't tha NB* with TechWhy jobs added or lost won’t have a big effect on the tech stock markets in the future Every month, I get asked about NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls). This is a barometer that comes out on the 1stFriday of every month. It tells us one thing. Whether the number of jobs were added or lost in the US economy for the previous month (excluding farming jobs). Well let’s take the NFP number coming out today (1 September 2023) Prior was 187,000 and the Forecast is 170,000. So already, they are guessing there’ll be 17,000 less jobs added this month compared to last month. In the past I would say, anything less than 170K might be a cause of concern to the stock market and companies (especially in tech) as less people were assigned jobs. But this month, I have a shift in mind and thoughts. If NFP comes out worse than expected… I don't necessarily think this will have a bad effect on the NASDAQ. In fact, the Nasdaq is showing strong signs of upside to come in the next few months. Between the Falling Wedge, the Price above 200MA, the price jumping from the prior uptrend - It looks like the NASDAQ wants to shoot up! And companies like Nvidia, META, Alphabet, Microsoft, IBM and even Tesla, I believe, will do just fine cutting jobs and building their empires simultaneously. And whether the NFP drops or rises, NASDAQ along with tech stocks will do just fine. Now let's talk about something a little more solemn. I have a wild thought of the day. In the era of accelerated technological advancements and revolutionary influence of AI (Artificial Intelligence), there is a paradigm shift happening between the biologics and the non-biologics. Sure tech companies will need a strong workforce, but I don’t think they need an excessive amount of employees like in the past. In the AI era with new AI developments, deep and machine learning to optimise and maximise operations and profits… I think we WILL undoubtedly see a major disruption in the employee force. But here is where it gets scary… Those who adapt, grow and evolve will make it. Those who don't might, fall behind and into what I call. The Slight Depression This is where things are getting tough and more expensive. · Salaries are staying the same while prices are going up. · Groceries you have to think twice when buying cereals. · Flights are crazy. · Rates and taxes are just ridiculous. · Some restaurants are out of their minds. · Don’t start with mortgages, bonds, insurance and medical aid. · Filling up a tank of petrol is showing off nowadays! Clearly, there is a shift between the lower and upper class. Where I truly believe the middle class is falling away very quickly. Soon it’ll be lower and upper class! No in between and that scares me! So… The onus now lies YOU. You really need to adapt, adopt and integrate to this rapidly evolving landscape. Foe examples, if you possess the skills to work alongside AI, harness its potential, and contribute to its development, you’ll stand a chance in the job market. If you continue to learn new tricks, no matter how old or young of a dog you are. If you continue to upskill yourself. If you invest in yourself (physically, mentally and financially). You’ll have the upper hand. What are your thoughts? Do you think a lower NFP number is bad for tech stocks and an index like the NASDAQ? Do you think The Slight Depression is among us? Answer yes or no.
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Timonrosso
NASDAQ100 LOND TERM SELLING IDEA Hello Traders In This Chart NASQAD100 HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today NAQI00 analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (NASQAD100 market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on NAQ100 Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by ForexPlanet20
1
Tech performance after peak valuation?Tech stocks have been soaring, but can this outperformance be sustained or will this artificial intelligence (AI) driven boom mimic the internet explosion and subsequent bust of the 2000-2002 period? Today, gains in the sector are concentrated in large companies like Nvidia and Meta, with year-to-date (YTD) returns standing at 225% and 148% respectively, subsequently causing the Nasdaq 100 to outperform the S&P 500 by around 25% YTD1, mostly due to its extra weighting in the Tech sector (~60% vs ~27%)2. This rally has been accompanied by a significant expansion in valuation multiples, specifically the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. Particularly relevant for the Tech sector, the P/S ratio offers a way to evaluate companies that may not yet be profitable but are generating sales—a common scenario among new and innovative firms. For many in the Tech sector today, this ratio has soared to unprecedented levels. At the end of March 2023, Nvidia became the company with the highest P/S ratio in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices. It has only increased since then, reaching a P/S ratio of over 40, which is based on the trailing 12 months of sales. Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report, however, did forecast a large (60%) jump in future sales, so analysts are now pricing in future sales which brings down the multiple to 25 times expected sales over next 12 months3. This leads us to our key question: based on a historical sample of companies that have reached these valuations in the past, what are the chances that Nvidia can continue to outperform? The research in this piece will explore the implications of high P/S valuations, which will be defined as 25 or over (coincident with Nvidia’s price over expected sales), on future company performance. P/S ratios: from rarity to normality From the late 1960s to the early 1990s, it was uncommon to find a company with a P/S ratio over 25. When it did happen, it was one or two firms each year, and the percentage of the total market cap they represented was negligible. Today, high P/S ratios have become routine, especially in the Tech sector: is this the new normal? The tech bubble of 1999-2002 saw a drastic surge in companies with high P/S ratios. In 1999, there were 56 companies with a P/S ratio over 25, representing over 6% of the total market cap. The trend peaked in 2000, with 113 companies and over 10% of the total market cap. For most of the 2000s, several companies each year reported a P/S ratio over 25, making up a small but not insignificant portion of the total market cap. The COVID-19 era of 2019-2023 saw another surge in high P/S ratios. In 2020, there were 32 companies with P/S ratios over 25, making up 1.10% of the total market cap. The trend extended into 2021 when 44 companies contributed to 2.46% of the total market cap. This shift was partly propelled by an influx of high-profile initial public offerings (IPOs), as newly public companies often command high valuations. The momentum shows no signs of waning in 2023, with over a dozen companies already boasting a 25 P/S in Q1 alone—the majority of which are tech stocks. Dynamics of top P/S stocks Within the universe of the top 500 largest US companies by market capitalisation, 99 companies have reached the distinction of having the highest P/S ratio of all companies since the 1960s. Nvidia now holds this title today. The Tech sector takes the lion's share of the highest multiple stocks, representing 27.3% of the companies, followed by the Health and Energy sectors, accounting for 22.2% and 17.2% respectively. To understand the dynamics of the companies with the top P/S ratio, we examined their performance over various periods following the point at which they claimed the top spot. We scrutinised their returns over the subsequent 1, 3, 5-year periods, and until the end of sample or March 2023. An interesting pattern emerged. In the year following the point when a stock takes the top spot for the P/S ratio for the first time, these companies continued outperforming—on average beating the S&P 500 by almost 1.5%. But their momentum falters in the years that follow; within the next three years, their average annual return declines to -4.4%, and the five-year average annual return fell further to -1.5%. Notably, the markets were annualising over 9% over those next 3-5 years, so their under-performance versus the market was more than double digits. When we take the entire history of these stocks, their average return still falls short of the market by over 12% a year. Even when we break it down by sector, it seems as though once a company reaches the position of ‘top P/S’, it struggles to maintain its momentum and keep up with the market. Tech and Health sectors, those with the most companies appearing in this top spot, don’t even outperform in the short term, but have negative returns on average. Declining odds of out-performance Looking at all 2691 companies that have been in the largest 500 at some point, the tables below show how frequently companies reach a specific P/S threshold, and the odds that it will outperform the market in the next 1,3,5,10, and 20 years. For the 231 companies that have reached a P/S over 25, they only outperformed the market in the next year 21% of the time, with a median relative return of -36%. Over longer horizons, this percentage worsens, reaching 9% over the next 3 years, and 4% over the next 20 years. For higher P/S ratios (>40) it’s even less likely to outperform the market on all time frames. The odds become stacked against you having a winning long-term stock at these valuations. The market has seen a shift in recent years, with high price-to-sales (P/S) ratios becoming increasingly common, particularly in the Tech sector. Our analysis suggests that an overemphasis on high P/S stocks may falter in the long run, as it may prove difficult for these companies to sustain the rapid growth required to justify these valuations and continue their performance trajectory. Sources 1 Source: Performance data is referenced from Yahoo Finance, with YTD referring to 2023 through 21 July 2023. 2 Source: Respective S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq 100 Index factsheets, with current data as of 30 June 2023. 3 Source: Investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2023/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2024/default.aspx This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
NASDAQ:NDX
by aneekaguptaWTE
Tsla: The sequence has changed #Tsla: The sequence has changed. The earlier updated chart's sequence has been change. Tsla is seems to have formed a leading diagonal, where wave 4 enters the area of wave 1. It has retraced more than 50% for wave 4. Now wave 5 may or may not go beyond the wave 3 high. When a leading diagonal is formed the price retrace badly after wave 5 completion. But the longer term horizon has no problem. This is purely an educational idea not a trading advice. Please consult your financial advisor before any trade execution. Thank you keep following for such updates and new charts or comment for any chart to be viewed for elliott wave patterns. Keep faith on you no on me...!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by imkhushal
2
NASDAQ Bank Weekly ChartNASDAQ Bank's market behavior is currently unfolding within the context of a cyclic wave pattern, specifically in its fourth wave. This cyclic wave pattern is a representation of the bank's price movements over time, and it is comprised of various phases that can be broken down for analysis. Starting from its inception, the bank's journey has been marked by significant trends known as primary waves. The first of these primary waves, primary wave 1, was completed in April 1987. This was a period of notable growth or decline that had a discernible impact on the bank's stock prices. Following this, primary wave 2 occurred in October 1990, representing another distinct phase of movement. Primary wave 3 followed suit, transpiring in April 1998, with its own unique characteristics that influenced the bank's market performance. Subsequently, primary wave 4 emerged in February 2000, accompanied by primary wave 5, which concluded in December 2006. These five primary waves collectively constitute what is referred to as wave I within the larger cyclic wave pattern. This initial cycle, termed cyclic wave I, reached its peak in January 2007, signifying a culmination of upward movement. However, as market dynamics are characterized by both upward and downward trends, a subsequent downward movement, known as cycle wave II, occurred from January 2007 to February 2009. This phase might have been influenced by broader economic factors or specific developments within the banking industry. Continuing the sequence, within the context of cyclic wave III, five new primary waves unfolded, each shaping the bank's trajectory in distinct ways. Following the completion of these primary waves, there was a retracement during primary wave IV, which spanned from an earlier point until May 2023. Retracements often represent periods of consolidation or correction in the market. As of the present moment, the bank's market behavior indicates the initiation of wave V within the cyclic degree. This implies that the bank is entering a new phase of market activity, and its price movements are anticipated to be influenced by a fresh set of factors and trends. In conclusion, the bank's journey within the cyclic wave pattern is a dynamic interplay of upward and downward trends, with each wave representing a distinct phase of market behavior. Understanding these patterns can assist investors and analysts in making informed decisions based on historical trends and anticipated future movements. Disclaimer: The following explanation is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market behaviors are subject to various factors and can be unpredictable. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:BANK
by imkhushal
NAS100 US100 Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaThe NASDAQ US100 has reached a significant resistance level and is presently exhibiting signs of being over extended. Within the video, we delve into a range of crucial elements related to technical analysis. These include evaluating the prevailing market trend, examining the structure of the market, analysing price action, and potentially identifying a trade prospect as we approach the conclusion of the video. It's important to note that the video provides a comprehensive and thorough explanation of all these factors. As a reminder, the content is intended for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by fxtraderanthony