The NASDAQ Index Officially Enters CorrectionThe decline to current levels from the peak of the top of the year, set on July 19, exceeded 10%, which is generally considered to be the trigger for the start of the correction. According to statistics, this is the 70th official correction since the index was created in February 1971.
Despite the positive report from Microsoft, the bearish dynamics of the NASDAQ index were determined by the decline in shares of Tesla and Google, as well as the rise in the yield of long-term treasury bonds, which increased the cost of borrowing.
Futures for the NASDAQ index are declining amid falling META shares. How strong can the correction be? According to the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the last 20 corrections:
→ it took Nasdaq an average of 3 months to improve its performance;
→ after 1 year, the index added an average of 14.4%.
Time will tell how the correction that has begun will fit into the statistics. The chart shows that the median line of the downward channel, shown in red, is already exerting pressure, as can be seen from the price action on October 24th.
So far, the index price is close to the lower boundary of the ascending channel, shown in blue, which describes the prevailing bullish trend; within its framework, the NASDAQ price was able to rise by more than 45% in less than 7 months this year. So the correction looks really appropriate.
In the near future, we may witness the formation of fluctuations caused by the support of the lower border of the blue channel and the current bearish sentiment. Growth may be resisted by the level of 14,460, which acted as support in September.
The AAPL report (expected next week), as well as geopolitical news, will have an important impact.
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Nasdaq100
NASDAQ Price Trends Analysis: Identifying Overvaluation Periods The NASDAQ, one of the most closely watched stock indices globally, is often characterized by its volatility and tendency to be influenced by tech and growth stocks. In this analysis, we will examine three key elements: periods of overvaluation represented by "circles," the potential presence of hidden bullish RSI divergence in green, and bearish RSI divergence in red.
2. Overvaluation Periods:
The "circles" in the NASDAQ context may be interpreted as periods when stock valuations are likely to be overextended. Investors, driven by excessive optimism, may push stock prices to unsustainable levels relative to underlying company fundamentals. These overvaluation periods can be attributed to various factors, including irrational market enthusiasm, speculative bubbles, or favorable macroeconomic conditions.
To identify these periods, a graphical analysis of NASDAQ price movements, highlighting significant price spikes or speculative bubbles, can be valuable. The goal is to identify moments when price trends significantly deviate from the overall trajectory.
3. Hidden Bullish RSI Divergence in Green:
Hidden bullish RSI divergence in green on the chart can suggest potential improvement in the underlying market strength, even when prices continue to decline or remain stagnant. This situation could imply a possible trend reversal to the upside.
4. Bearish RSI Divergence in Red:
Bearish RSI divergence in red on the chart may indicate potential weakness in the upward trend, even if prices continue to rise. This can signal a potential trend reversal to the downside.
5. Conclusion:
In summary, the NASDAQ, as a major stock index, experiences significant fluctuations. "Circles" may indicate overvaluation periods, while hidden bullish RSI divergence in green and bearish RSI divergence in red can signal potential opportunities for trend reversal. It is essential for investors to closely monitor these indicators and incorporate them into their decision-making processes.
However, it is important to note that stock market investments come with inherent risks, and no technical analysis can guarantee success. It is highly recommended that investors consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions.
This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and stock market investments carry risks.
Zigzag For Wave Four!!! Or Turning MarketGreetings, dear friends. I hope you are having a productive week.
I am happy to assist you in ensuring that all previous analyses are attached to each corresponding analysis. This will provide a comprehensive overview and help you make well-informed decisions. Please do not hesitate to let me know if there is anything else I can do to assist you further.
I want to share my market analysis ideas based on the Elliott Wave Principle with you.
I am a fan of this principle and follow all the rules and guidelines for analyzing the market.
However, please note that my ideas are based on my personal experience and may change over time.
If there is an error in my analysis, I am open to re-analyzing it from the beginning and learning from my mistakes.
It's important to understand that making an error in analysis is not a fault, but evading responsibility is.
No one can analyze financial markets with 100% accuracy, but it's remarkable how close we can get.
We analyze from multiple perspectives to consider all possibilities.
Let's mention a few opinions and ideas!
Based on mathematics.
I am still practicing to understand the Elliott Wave Principle better and hope to provide an even better analysis in the future.
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Keep trying and never give up.
Good luck!
US 100 INDEX. THREE WORDS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW - LET'S GO DIVINGThere are looming risks that could "break" the US economy and end its current growth cycle.
Third-quarter GDP estimates are tracking above 5% and the US economy has added more than 2 million jobs year-to-date.
But there are three looming risks that could "break" the stock market and economy and end its current growth cycle, according to a Tuesday note from Ned Davis Research. These are the three risks to consider.
1. A resurgence in inflation
Inflation has made progress in trending towards the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% target after CPI peaked at about 9% last June, but any resurgence in rising prices would threaten the trajectory of the Fed's current tightening cycle.
2. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.00%
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged so far this year, hitting a 16-year high of 5.02% on Monday. A further increase in this key benchmark rate would spell trouble for the broader economy, specifically if the yield breaks above the 5.25% level.
The 5.00 - 5.50% yield range TVC:TNX was an important double-top in 2006/2007, and also represented the peak policy rate of that tightening cycle.
So perhaps we wouldn't take a break of that level lightly.
Higher interest rates increase borrowing rates for consumers and businesses and often curtail demand, leading to slower economic growth, if not a contraction in growth. The 10-year US Treasury yield was at 4.86% on Tuesday.
3. Credit conditions deteriorating
So far this year, the bond market has been more concerned about interest rate risks than credit risks.
Technical graph below for US 100 Index NASDAQ:NDX says that main 125-Day SMA support has been broken as well as major upside trend, and technical figure known as "Head and Shoulders" is in progress right now.
$NQ! Close to support. Now what ?I closed my short position on Friday.
There is a little more room for downside, but we are basically on support.
I will follow a wait and see apporach today and tomorrow.
Top of the wedge will be the target if some market strength returns.
If we break support to the downside, a failed retest of the breakout line will be a good place to short. I am cautious in the medium term and will remain nimble.
Geo political instability and rising US treasury yields not doing markets any favours.
We also need to keep an eye on oil prices.
NASDAQ to see a temporary move higher?US100 - Intraday
Levels close to the 61.8% pullback level of 15365 found sellers.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 14546.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 14955, resulting in improved risk/reward.
The medium-term bias is neutral.
We look to Sell at 14955 (stop at 15055)
Our profit targets will be 14705 and 14655
Resistance: 14955 / 14995 / 15348
Support: 14636 / 14546 / 14445
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#NASDAQ last chance --------------NASDAQ/NDX/USTECH100-------------
Amidst tensions there is one final hope indexes can turn around and continue their route to the upside instead of biting the dust. Now or never I would say. If current support levels don't hold price, nothing will and we will see more downside movement. Based on that I closed my hedge position and if it proves to be true that price cannot fall beyond these levels I would consider to add to long position.
This is not a financial advice, do your own research and analysis.
#NASDAQ to the upside------------NASDAQ/NQ/USTECH100-----------
I just went long on Nasdaq index and looking for further upside movement. From fundamental point of view I can say investors expect no more rate hike this year or in the near future. War news outside the US does not really affects this market. From technicals I can see a higher chance to go upside rather than downside at the moment. Weekly level can be the first target here (blue line).
This is not a financial advice, do your own research and analysis!
NAS100 Technical analysis and Trade Idea US100In this video, we conduct an in-depth analysis of the NAS100. Taking a close look at both the weekly and daily timeframes, we can see the emergence of a prominent topping chart pattern characterized by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, prominently visible on the US100 daily chart. In this video, we delve into various facets of technical analysis, including the prevailing trend, price action, and market structure. We also explore a potential trading opportunity. As always, it's crucial to emphasize that the content presented is solely for educational purposes, and it should not be construed as financial advice.
NVDA Can Fall NVDA Can Fall:
NVIDIA hit the 161.8 Fibonacci extension and took a little correction. It has been consolidating for some time but also forming a diamond pattern. Although this pattern is not one of the strongest, if it plays out, the market can fall below the FCP zone. Or even the previous high level with a 200sma (daily time frame) confluence and trend line.
This can have a knock-on effect on NASDAQ 100 (US100).
Something to watch out for.
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NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 16/10/2023 (+ Higher TF)In the higher timeframe, we have completed a WXY correction and this can be the end of wave (4). However, in the lower time frame, we are missing one more swing up to identify an impulse. If we do not get the additional swing up, we will probably see more corrective price action as a wave (4) and take out the low.
QQQ: 3 Falling Peaks at Bearish Shark PCZThe QQQ has been trading at the PCZ of this Bearish Shark for quite a while now and it has recently come back to make a 3rd Consecutive Lower High with Hidden Bearish Divergence on the RSI and looks to be ready to confirm it as a 3 Falling Peaks Pattern that I think would result in a major move down towards the 800 EMA or even lower down to the pre-2022 levels.