Nasdaq100
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 7 Jan 2025I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - JOLTS Job Openings @ 15h00
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
Morning analysis:
M TF - Currently showing bullish sentiment, even after last month's doji candle close.
W TF - Bulls have managed so far to keep price above W neckline (on the W TF change the chart type to line chart and you will clearly see the "M" representing a DT market pattern).
D TF - D 0.618 SELL fib level was broken, as bulls pushed price up well above this level and managed to close the D candle above it. Even though bulls showed massive strength on Monday, they were unable to close the D candle above the D falling wedge pattern top blue line, i.e. they were unable to break the pattern upwards. At time of writing in the morning, temporary blue downtrend line is being respected. The blue downtrend line represents the D downtrend of the falling wedge (drawn on the D TF) and the green down trendline represents the 4H downtrend line (drawn on the 4H TF)
4H TF - Potential neckline of a DT noted and marked with orange. If the 7am candle breaks this neckline downwards, price will push down because we are at the top of a higher TF market pattern (D falling wedge) + we have a 4H DT. These are strong bearish signals, but they will only be valid should price action give a reversal signal by bears being able to break the orange neckline downwards. The D buy fib levels coincide with the 4H buy fib levels as both are drawn from swing low at B to swing high at A on each respective TF. This gives a form of TF confluence and makes these levels stronger.
1H - Bears have managed to break below the pivot point + 1H EMA. The 1H candle that closed at 6am, wicked down to the pink uptrend line and there was a strong reaction (long lower candle wick) alluding to the validity of this uptrend line.
Interest area's:
1. One buy area of confluence marked in green highlight - 4H EMA + D EMA (at that time) + D 0.382 buy fib level
As the day progressed:
Bulls managed to push up and break the pivot point upwards.
The candle that broke the pivot closed right on the 30min EMA. When Nas is very bullish or bearish, the 30min EMA will act / be respected as dynamic support and resistance.
Hence, I didn't want to enter my buy right at this level. I waited to see what price action would reveal.
Looking at the 15min TF you can see a small price retracement to the pivot point (red candle at C.), a doji right at the pivot point and a green candle pushing up and away from the pivot and closing higher .
It was at this point that I entered on a full position size, as I deemed my risk low because I had waited for the break and re-test:
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - 30 min DB with neckline broken upwards and re-tested
2. S&R - pivot point + 1H EMA acting as dynamic support
3. Trend - Buy is in the overall bullish direction of the recent market and temporary orange downtrend line broken upwards. Price also rejecting and moving away from temporary down trend blue line
4. Fib -
5. Candlesticks - bullish engulfing candle to the left of C. on the 1H TF + previous long wick candle rejecting the D sell 0.618 fib.
Mental SL placed at the thick pink line, so that the pivot point the 1H EMA and bulls rejecting the 4H neckline could possibly protect my buy.
Price action was a bit choppy, but I held my position open as price was making higher highs and higher lows on the 1H TF. Price gradually trending upwards along the 1H EMA.
Then news came out at 15h00 and price fell through the floor.
JOLTS Job Openings is not really a "high impact" news event for Nasdaq like the CPI and NFP is. So this was a surprisingly volatile move, indicating how sensitive traders are to economic news that would affect Fed decisions regarding rate cuts.
For me, up until the news, Nas was showing really good bullish price action. And then price just fell through the floor.
I closed my biggest position at 1'150 pips loss (as I usually don't like to take losses of more than 1'000 pips a day). My smaller position size, I hesitated to close and took a loss of 2'411 pips! WHAT THE HELL!!!
This was the fist time in a long time that I hesitated to close and it cost me badly, my emotions really got in the way here.
Then, as per my strategy, when price reached my interest area, I moved down to the 5min TF and entered a buy when price made a DB on the 5min TF at the lower hand icon..
But that was a false signal i.e. a small bounce off a strong reversal zone, but price ultimately tanked further and I closed at 1'126 pips loss.
What a freakin disaster....I basically took a 2'927 pips loss today (if I smooth the effect of position sizing).
Part of this loss is due to variance and part of it is due to my own fault.
There is no way I could have projected that Nas would fall through the floor on this news event and I don't regret my entry as I do believe my entry is correct for my bias and I did wait for the break and re-test.
My mistake was that I hesitated to close and took a bigger loss than I should have.
I also should not have entered again if I had already taken such a huge loss for the day. My strategy is to be out for the day if I make a 1000 pip loss.
So it was a bit of a disaster.
Nasdaq (and mostly myself) DESTROYED me today!
After this devastation to my trading account, I think I will sit the rest of the week out, as tomorrow market are closed in national mourning and then Friday is NFP which I don't trade anyway.
I need market to be as "normal" as possible because now I have my work cut out for me to slowly make up these losses. I will need to look for good quality entries and limit my risk.
Losses are normal in trading and these will be faced by every trader. But the biggest damage a trader can do to his progress is to have uncontrolled losses and let losses get bigger than they should.
It has been many months since I made this error, so I am making progress, but one bad day can cause serious damage.
Limiting losses is more important than making money. If you don't have this skill you will never be profitable over the long run - I was reminded of this valuable lesson today.
Hope you had a better day than me!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 6 Jan 2025I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None
Directional bias - I think BUY.
Morning analysis:
M TF - so far, buyers are showing strength after last month's doji candle close. Can't read too much into it though because the candle is not fully formed and closed, but it does indicate buyers sentiment currently.
W TF - Last weeks candle closed just below the W neckline, but does this constitute a break of the neckline downwards? Difficult to say because bulls were in total control of the market last Friday and drove price up by thousands of pips, creating a very long wick candle. It was only in the final 4H of Friday that bears pushed price down +-170 pips below the neckline. The market is imperfect, and I would not be too quick to read this as a neckline broken downwards, especially because the early morning trading of today shows a strong rejection of the neckline area. I draw my neckline and S&R as lines but one should always keep in mind that these are areas or zones.
D TF - Clear falling wedge pattern in formation (shown in grey and blue lines). These tend to break upwards, but can break in either direction. A break of this pattern in either direction, will result in a large move because the pattern is so large the resulting break + profit target will be large. At time of writing this morning, price is consolidating at D EMA.
4H TF - Strong uptrend and this morning we see a strong rejection of the W neckline area, with a gap up and a candle wick down to the neckline area.
Morning interest areas where identified but these later changed as fibs had to be re-drawn (and so not shown on the charts).
Later once price stabilised, interest zones where identified but price did not retrace. Day and 4H fibs were drawn from swing low at B to swing high at A.
Area's of confluence marked in green highlight but now invalid as price keeps climbing.
This morning....
I identified a red highlighted area which I deemed a strong sell area due to D EMA possibly acting as dynamic resistance + D 0.50 sell fib level.
Price started to consolidate here in an ascending triangle pattern. These patterns usually break upwards, but can break in either direction.
I entered a buy at the hand icon on the break of the market pattern + the D EMA (D EMA has now moved higher as price has moved higher).
I took a small position because I don't like these entries where you buy at the highest level of the day which it was at the time of my buy (I find these to be risky and prone to fake outs). I prefer retracement entries (for me, safer entries).
Hence my small position.
Now I wish it was my usual position size because price is up +- 3'300 pips! :)
At least I caught the buy!
Hope you had a good trading day! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 01/06/2025This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
Market Analysis And Market Outlook of the Week of 01/06/25Saturday: End of the Week Analysis
The Week ended Red;
with a range of 735 +- points.
Monday's Open continued to bring price down through Thursday; Friday being the only Green day.
___________
Overall Weekly bias:
- Price reached a major level of support at 20,800 +- and is currently moving up.
- With enough momentum the next area being targeted is 21,800 +- .
Daily Bias:
- Further confirms Weekly bias and support zone along with price targeting 21,800 +- .
- A higher low has been created which indicated a reversing market or the beginning of consolidation.
- Directional confirmation is needed by taking out has High or making a Lower Low.
1 Hour Bias:
- The 1 hour shows a trend change from short to longs.
- Taking out last lower high, a retracement is anticipated at this level to last support.
5 Minute Bias:
- Looks bullish with price currently retracing to last support.
____________
Considerations:
- Presidential inauguration, 01/20
- Earnings Reports, 01/20
- Red Folder News, 01/07 till *ongoing.
_____________
Market Anticipated Performance:
- The Markets will Range till after the Inauguration and after earnings report.
- My bias is a range of 1,300 +- points , from 20,800 +- to 22,100.
How to Trade for Week of 01/06:
- I am looking for price to retrace on the 1hour, 100 - 200 point +-
- Then Looking to enter long as price targets 21,800
- Zone to Zone and pattern trading till 01/20
Short Position - NASDAQShort Position Entry: Consider initiating a short position if the Nasdaq-100 Index falls below 21,000.
Stop Loss (SL): Set a stop loss at 21,555 to manage potential losses.'
Market Sentiment: The combination of the Federal Reserve's cautious approach and rising inflation may contribute to a weakening market sentiment, potentially leading to a downward movement in the index.
his recommendation is for educational purposes only. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Stock trading involves risks, including the potential loss of capital. Ensure to evaluate your risk tolerance and conduct thorough research.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 2 Jan 2025I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - Initial jobless claims @ 13:30
News - None
Directional bias - Not sure, will decide after analysis
Morning analysis:
M TF - Doji formed on the M TF, with a long upper wick of 11'636 pips. This indicates that bulls may have run out of steam to push price higher. Sellers may be entering the market at this point. So price could either be stalling at this level and then push through upwards, or bears may take control at this level and push price down. Price action on the lower timeframes will answer that question.
W TF - DT has formed and price is currently below the neckline. The candle for this week has not closed yet and so we don't know for sure if neckline is in fact broken downwards (can only reach this conclusion once the candle is closed). But either way, price is very bearish, with sellers currently holding price below neckline. Also have a temporary uptrend line on W TF seemingly broken downwards (again can't know for sure until this weeks candle closes).
D TF - I interpret the chart to indicate a massive DT with the neckline broken downwards. So I see very bearish price action. The Day candles have closed below the weekly DT neckline for 2 days in a row - very bearish. But in the early morning trading of today, price spiked down low and bulls have managed to fight back and push price higher (at time of writing). So maybe the W 0.618 level is holding strong.
4H TF - Bulls have pushed past the 4H 0.382 and 0.50 fib levels and price now at the 4H 0.618 fib level. This indicates that bulls have found strength. Also we have a small dojiísh green candle, followed by a gap up and the a long wick bullish green candle that has a body that is much larger than the previous candle. This indicates that bulls are (so far) building momentum upwards, even after a strong bearish push down (the long wick). However, price is at a very strong S&R zone (as indicated by the red highlight), so it remains to be seen if bulls can break this resistance zone.
1H TF - Early this morning there was a DB formed right at the W 0.618 level. If I was awake then, I definitely would have taken that buy. Price moved up and broke the pivot point + the 30min & 1H EMA, indicating that price is very bullish.
Falling wedge pattern noted on the 4H and 1H TF (as marked in blue lines). These tend to break upwards, but can break in either direction.
So the higher TF's are bearish and lower TF's are bullish, meaning we do not have TF confluence (all TF's are not saying the same things).
I have already missed the buy, so I think considering the bearish indications on the higher TF's, today I will look for a sell!
I will wait until the lower TF's are also giving bearish signals and then we will have TF confluence i.e. all TF's giving bearish signals.
If that doesn't happen and price moves up, then I am happy to sit on the sidelines and wait a day or two until Nasdaq direction is clear again.
The 7am 4H candle closed with a candle body bigger than the previous 4H candle. Indicating that bulls are picking up momentum and effectively breaking the 0.618 sell fib level.
As the day progressed:
A nice DT formed at the 4H 0.618 fib level.
Entered a sell at the bottom hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Fib - 4H 0.618 fib
2. Trendline - temp uptrend broken downwards (as marked with the light blue line)
3. Market pattern - DT on 30 min TF with neckline broken down which formed at the top of the falling wedge pattern (i.e. at the downtrend line)
4. S&R - DT formed on strong S&R zone
5. Candle sticks - none
Mental SL placed at the thick pink line, which was above the highest close of the DT peak.
Price moved upwards with strength and momentum and closed a 15min candle above my mental stop and I closed my position - took a loss of 560 pips
Turned out just to be a spike upwards when the 30min candle closed red with a long wick spike sticking up.
Nasdaq can be such a bi@@tch sometimes with it's hectic spikes.
So I re-entered a sell at roughly the some level as my first entry.
Unfortunately for me, price moved up again, because the 1H + 30min EMA provided dynamic support.
I closed my position at the blue arrow, taking another loss of 550 pips.
So that's more than 1'000 pips on a full position size.
This trade would have been higher quality if the 30min and 1H EMA's were broken down too.
Then even though I had identified the red highlighted zone as a strong area of confluence for a sell (4H EMA + D 0.318 + W neckline), I took no action when price got there.
Usually on area's of interest, I would move down to the 5min TF and take a position once a price reversal pattern forms.
However, I am so used to working in a bullish environment that my brain didn't register what to do in a bearish environment.
It sound's dumb because I literally didn't click that I need to take action now. I am not used to applying my strategy in reverse.
So what I should have done is enter a sell again at the squiggly line on the 5min DT. Would have made a few thousand pips.
But would have, could have, should have.
Point is that I didn't take the sell and I do know from the past that I struggle to apply my strategy in reverse.
Lesson: Write actions directly on my chart for bearish biases.
I do take comfort from the fact that my analysis was ultimately correct (at time of writing), I just didnt find the correct entry today.
Out for the day, I like to limit my daily losses to 1'000 pips.
I know I can easily make this up and prefer to live to trade another day than trying to revenge trade.
Hope you had a better 1st day trading than me! :)
The total bullish move for the day was 3'100 pips (at time of posting)
I captured ZEROOOOOOOO % of the total move AAAAAHHHHH :(
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NASDAQ 100 index / US 100 outlook Based on the previous week rejection of the 21742.33 zone, I'm anticipating price to come back to 21610.60 which is my daily point of interest for sell continuation (a pullback os anticipated) taking the Monday high as Inducement. But I'm looking forward to catching the pullback with the H4 POI: 21045.73 , yesterday's low as Inducement hence buying till we reach my daily poi before the sell continuation.
What's your outlook on this.
Comment let's interact
Don't forget to follow to get notifications of I drop my outlooks.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 30 Dec 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None
Directional bias - BUY, all higher TFs are bullish
Morning analysis:
M TF - Bullish, but long wick starting to appear which indicates the pressure from bears - at time of writing, wick is 7'295 pips
W TF - Potential W neckline identified. On line chart candle closes have managed to stay above upward trend line.
D TF - Price came up to retest the DT (marked with green lines) and failed to successfully break the neckline upwards. Bears stepped in and pushed back down, now (at time of writing) it seems D EMA is acting as dynamic support.
As the day progressed:
Tried a small buy position at the top hand icon, but it turned out to be a fake out and I took a small loss (+- 300 pips).
Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - DB on 30min TF
2. S&R - D EMA seemed to be acing as dynamic support
3. Trend - temporary pink downtrend line broken upwards
4. Fib - DB forming right at D 0.382 fib level
Mental SL placed at the thick pink line i.e. half the height of the DB pattern. As candles started closing below my mental stop, I closed my position at 300 pips loss.
Price was unable to break through the 30min EMA. If Nasdaq is particularly bullish or bearish, price will react to the 30min EMA.
I was wary of this when I entered and so I entered my buy with a small position, ready to scale in if price moved my way.
However, price moved down significantly, tapping the W 0.618 fib level and the D 50 EMA.
Here price started to consolidate and formed a DB on the 15min TF.
Entered a full position size buy at the blue arrow icon - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - DB on the 15TF, with a strong momentum candle breaking the neckline upwards (marked in turquoise lines)
2. S&R - strong D S&R zone (marked in red highlight on the D chart), from which price has significantly moved at A. and B. This level acted as resistance at A. and support at B. evidencing that this level is strong.
3. Trend - The temporary downtrend line (marked in orange) was broken upwards, indicating that price is no longer respecting this downtrend and is ready to move upwards.
4. Fib - Price wicked down to the W 0.618 fib level and the DB formed just above this level. This indicated that price is not only reacting to this level but also gave a trend reversal signal (DB pattern) at this level.
5. Candlesticks - A red inverted hammer candle formed on the 30min TF, just before the break of the 15min DB. This candle is bullish in nature and shows that bulls have entered the market and tried to push price higher, but bears did not have the strength to push price down significantly past the candle open. Indicates bearish loss of momentum.
Mental SL placed at the thick pink line, placed below the W 0.618 fib level and below the candle wicks sticking out below this fib level.
Price moved up nicely and I closed my position at 1'300 pips at the top blue arrow when price made a reversal pattern on the 15min TF (DT).
YEAR END CLOSING:
After today's nice profit, I decided to close out my trading year and so I wont be trading tomorrow.
This year was my best trading year yet.
I made 72% ROI and I can't help but say how proud I am of the progress I have made.
It's been a long road, but seeing the returns slowly building is very rewarding.
I hope you had a great trading year! And if not, this is a reminder that it is possible. It's extremely hard, but it is possible. Just keep going!
All the best for 2025! :) Hope we make some good $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ :)
The total move for the day in the direction that I was looking for was 3'118 pips:
I captured 42 % of the total move and looking at the candles, I am happy with that.
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
"US100 / NASDAQ 100 / US TECH" Indices Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
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however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
Goal 🎯: 22,800.0
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Elliott Wave Analysis on MNQ: Anticipating Wave 3Hello, TradingView community! As I am exploring the Elliott Wave Theory with the Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures (MNQ), I've observed the potential start of a new impulse wave sequence after completing an ABC correction on Friday morning and starting new impulse wave 1 with corrective wave 2 in the afternoon. Based on this, I expect we may be entering the longest wave 3, aiming for a target of 22,800, supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
This target for wave 3 I chose for its typical strength and reach. The 12/18 liquidity level is critical here; a breakthrough could indicate strong buy-side support, confirming the bullish trend. I used Fibonacci levels to manage potential pullbacks and determine profitable exits 1 and 2. Additionally, monitoring market structure shifts helps validate the continuation of the upward trend.
I am eager to hear your thoughts or corrections on this analysis, as I am still grinding my skills in applying Elliott Wave principles effectively.
We already bottomed, you just don't know it yet! NASDAQ:QQQ
We already bottomed, you just don't know it yet!
Daily Chart analysis:
A look back at 2024 shows us that every time we have come down to the Green support line on the Wr% we've bounced hard all the way back up to the red barrier.
It coincides with every time we've went below the 9ema that this occurs then we rocket back up. This time could be different but what I'm seeing on the weekly chart as well it doesn't look like it to me as we've already rebound back above the 9ema to this point.
I'm just a nerd who loves all things stock market, I'm no oracle but from my TA and my GUT we should bounce hard heading into the new year and back up to ATH's in January friends!
Not financial advice.
NVIDIA | 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME | STOCK TRADINGHello guys, I made NASDAQ:NVDA analysis for you. For this kind of analysis, please value my analysis with your likes Thank you very much to everyone who supports me by liking
SIGNAL ALERT
BUY NVIDIA 137.26 - 134.44
🟢TP1: 140,90
🟢TP2: 144.90
🟢TP3: 150.90
🔴SL: 128,03
Stay with love guys.
Below is a quick, high-level read on what the chart suggests for1. Recent Downward Momentum
Price has clearly dropped from a swing high (around the mid‑21,400s to 21,480 area) and is now trading in the low 21,300s.
The series of lower highs on the way down suggests near-term bearish pressure or at least a corrective pullback.
2. Key Support Zones
There’s a notable support band around 21,280 – 21,250 (green boxes/lines on your chart). This area appears to have propped the market up once already.
Below that, the next region of interest is near 21,200 – 21,180, which may act as a secondary support if the first zone fails.
3. Overhead Resistance
Near-term resistance looks to be the 21,360 – 21,400 zone. The market rejected in that region not long ago.
A break and hold above 21,400 could indicate buyers are regaining control, potentially setting up a run toward prior swing levels in the 21,450–21,480 range.
4. Volume Profile Observations
There’s heavier volume around the mid-21,200s and again in the upper 21,300s/21,400 region. These are likely to remain “hot spots” where price may stall or pivot due to heavier trading activity.
The 21,250–21,280 band also shows a fair amount of transactional volume, reinforcing that support zone.
5. Short-Term Bias
As long as price stays below the 21,360–21,400 ceiling, the immediate tilt is mildly bearish or consolidative, leaning negative.
If bulls manage a strong push above 21,400, it would suggest short-term buyers are stepping in; failing that, watch for a retest of the 21,250 zone or potentially the 21,200 handle.
Bottom Line
Short-Term Bearish Bias: Lower highs and a clear downward swing off recent highs.
Immediate Supports: 21,280 → then 21,250 → deeper support near 21,200.
Immediate Resistances: 21,360 → 21,400 → beyond that, 21,450+.
Keep an eye on how price reacts at those volume-rich zones—if momentum breaks above 21,400, that could quickly shift sentiment more bullish in the immediate term. If support near 21,280/21,250 fails, expect a further leg down.