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Nasdaq Cash: Trading Plan For The Coming WeeksHere is my "Nasdaq Cash" trading idea for the weeks ahead. As it is clear, Nasdaq has moved a huge amount and may continue this trend hence forth. In H4 time frame there is an strong level of liquidity( at price 17320.59 ) after hunting the mitigation of decision level and touching the FVG , and doing so, the extreme flip in the positive range is remained untouched. I Presume that the price will try to reach out the level of liquidity and touch the mentioned extreme flip in order to go higher. For doing so we may have a negative Break of Structure(BOS) at H4 time frame which I assume might be a temporary BOS to reach out the liquidity level. Keep in mind that if the price reaches the extreme flip, we will need an H4 Reverse pattern( H4 Positive Mainpulation ) to occur in order to jump in Buy Position since the structure of H4 time frame may have been changed in that time.
NLong
by AlirezaNas
2
Nasdaq February Monthly Review – Contin.Refer to the previous post regarding Feb Monthly Analysis for part 1 of this post. So as promised, here is the detailed analysis of each of the Feb month’s entries, marked with number’s on the chart: Trade 1: Entry Point: 17254 Time of entry (GMT): +-8h30 Confirmations: Market Pattern: DB formed on 1H TF with neckline broken. Also on the 31 Jan, price had travelled down more than the distance equal to the height of the day DT that had formed (marked in blue lines). From profit target (end point of the blue vertical line), probability is high that market will move back to retest the neckline of the market pattern. I like being part of a retest that is in the same direction as the overall trend Fib: The Day candle on 31 January had closed with a spike down to the Day 0,50 fib level (fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.). Day fib levels are strong and a DB forming in the area of the D 0,50 fib level is a strong entry signal Candlesticks: 31 Jan Day candle closed with a longish spike down to the D 0,50 fib + D EMA S&R: Strong dynamic support provided by the D EMA Trend lines: The trend is your friend - taking a buy in a bullish market will always get you the most pips because rallies can often run for longer than you expect (buy the dip) Stop loss: Half the height of the DB i.e.. At 17175,9 Draw Down pips: 754 pips TP points: TP1 = 17963 (fib level -0,27) TP2 = 18348,8 (fib level -0,618) Fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.) Both TPs hit Close half your position at TP1 and the other half at TP2 Profit in pips: 10’943 Comments: Successful trade --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trade 2: Entry Point: 17607 Time of entry (GMT): 21h00 Confirmations: Market Pattern: Db formed on the 15min TF, with strong momentum candle breaking the neckline. Fib: DB formed by the Day 0,618 fib level (fib drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D.) 0,618 fib levels are very strong especially on the D TF Candlesticks: On the 15min TF, there is a long wick hammer candle right by the D 0,618 fib level + strong momentum green candles on the 15min TF to break the neckline of the DB. S&R: DB formed by a strong Day S&R zone + D EMA right by this zone providing dynamic support Trend lines: The trend is your friend - taking a buy in a bullish market will always get you the most pips because rallies can often run for longer than you expect Stop loss: Half the height of the DB i.e. At 17531 Draw Down pips: 137 pips TP points: TP1 = 18293,2 (fib level -0,27) TP2 = 18617 (fib level -0,618) (Fib drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D.) Plan is to close half your position at TP1 and the other half at TP2 Profit in pips: zero Comments: This trade did not work out - ultimately price came down and took the trade out at entry - Market moved up 3504 pips from entry -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trade 3: Entry Point: 17364 Time of entry (GMT): 20h30 Confirmations: Market Pattern: A huge DT formed on the D TF with a break of the neckline (neckline and profit target (ie same distance as height of market pattern) marked in orange lines). Price travelled the full distance of the profit target. End of profit target (end of the orange vertical line coincides perfectly with Week 0,382 fib level). Market has a high probability of retesting the neckline of the market pattern after reaching the profit target. I like being part of a retest that is in the same direction as the overall trend. DB formed on the 15min TF at this level with a break of the neckline. Fib: 15min DB formed right at the W 0,382 fib level Candlesticks: None S&R: Strong Day support level + 4H 200 EMA Trend lines: The trend is your friend - taking a buy in a bullish market will always get you the most pips because rallies can often run for longer than you expect Stop loss: Half the height of the DB ie. At 17333 Draw Down pips: zero TP points: TP1 = 18542 (fib level -0,27) TP2 = 19189 (fib level -0,618) Fib drawn from swing low at E. to swing high at D. Plan is to close half your position at TP1 and the other half at TP2 Profit in pips: still in progress Comments: Trade still in progress - market has moved 10'923 pips from entry ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trade 4: Entry Point: 17834,6 Time of entry (GMT): 13h30 Confirmations: Market Pattern: DB formed on 30min TF right at the W 0,382 fib level + D 0,382 fib level. Enter at break of the neckline. Fib: Area of confluence because Week and Day 0,382 fib levels coincide Candlesticks: Long wick candle close on 30min TF piercing both the Fib levels but closing above S&R: 4H support level + D EMA providing dynamic support Trend lines: The trend is your friend - taking a buy in a bullish market will always get you the most pips because rallies can often run for longer than you expect Stop loss: Half the height of the DB i.e. At 17825 Draw Down pips: 130 pips TP points: TP1 = 18307,5 (fib level -0,27) TP2 = 18581 (fib level -0,618) Fib drawn from swing low at 3. to swing high at F. Plan is to close half your position at TP1 and the other half at TP2 Profit in pips: TP1 hit + TP2 in progress Comments: Tp1 hit at 4748 pips above entry ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you had taken these trades, you would have closed out on 15'691 pips of profit. Always easier to pinpoint entries in hindsight - but the point of this exercise is to understand these entries and understand why you didn’t take them. This will connect the dots in your brain and then in future, you have a higher chance of spotting these high-quality entries and actually taking them. Looking at the chart above, one can clearly see the trending market i.e. the market runs and pulls back…runs and pulls back. So you want to get in on the trend at the pull back (at retracement levels). These are not the only high-quality entries - there were some good sells with the break of the DT necklines (marked in black lines). But these are sells in a bullish market, so your TP's will never run as far as buys in a bullish market. A note about stop losses on Nasdaq – my advice is not to set actual stop losses on MT4 or MT5 for your trades because Nasdaq is so volatile that it can often spike you out. Unfortunately, you need to use mental stops and use judgement with stop losses and see how candles CLOSE, not how candles spike. Once price has moved a significant distance away from your position, you can secure at entry and trade risk free. Screen time with this index will help you get the "feel" of this I learnt from this analysis and hope you did too 😊 All the best for March month trading! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance EMA = Exponential moving average DT = Double Top DB = Double Bottom
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq February Monthly ReviewNasdaq - Feb Month Analysis I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post February review and analysis in case it can help you! Looking back at February, I want to review if I took the best trades for the month. The Day TF provides me with the strongest confirmations and the most profitable trades. This timeframe provides me with my bread and butter each month, so I need to make sure that I am taking these trades and getting the most out of them. Have a look at what I believe where the best trades for February and see how many you took. If you didn’t take a trade, try to understand why you missed it. This way you will increase your chances of getting into these trades in the future. For Feb, there were 4 trades to be taken - trades marked in numbers on the chart. Of course, there were many other profitable trades in Feb....but these are my "bread and butter" trades. Tomorrow I will share a very detailed analysis on entry points + confirmations + SL + TP expectations. See if you can come to your own conclusion on these 4 trades and then tomorrow we compare notes :)
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 7 Mar 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:20am GMT From my previous post you will know that I had a buy position at D. running. As the morning progressed, market came down and the long wick at E. took out my D. position because I had secured at entry. Waiting to see price action, I entered a buy at C. - Confirmations: Fib: DB formed on the 1H TF (not marked on the graph but clear to see on the 1H TF at E.) at the 4H 0,618 fib level + Week 0,382 fib level Market pattern: DB formed on 1H TF and neckline broken Candle sticks: Long wick bullish candle on 1H TF (at E.) + strong bullish momentum candle to break the neckline S&R + EMAs: DB formed at strong Day support level + D EMA providing dynamic support roughly in this area too Trend line: None specifically but position is in the same direction as the overall trend (bullish in this case) - the trend is your friend SL: Placed roughly halfway into the height of the market pattern, marked by the thick purple line Tp's were determine using the fib drawn on the 4H TF (swing low = A. and swing high at the time was B. - se A. and B. on 1H TF and ignore on 4H TF on graph) TP1 - 18240 TP 2 – 18360 Market moved well in my favor, ultimately creating a DB on the 4H TF (marked in black lines) with a neckline break and so interesting that the profit target (i.e. the same distance as the height of the market pattern) lined up perfectly with TP 1 On the 1H TF, price broke through the temporary down trend blue line at F and then a small red candle to re-test, before moving up again. Took partial profit at TP1 and Finally closed my full position right up close to TP2 when a double top formed on the 15min TF. Ultimately market moved 3586 pips from my C. position and I closed out at 3300 pips. It was a goooooooooooood day! :) What could I have done differently? Entered a much MUCH bigger position! Haha! Hope you caught this buy! Good luck for NFP trading - think I will stay out today. TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance EMA = Exponential moving average DT = Double Top DB = Double Bottom
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Wednesday 6 March 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:20am On 5 March I entered buy positions at C. Refer to that post for confirmations Market moved up, breaking the 1H neckline and retesting the neckline at E. Bulls pushed through all obstacles (i.e. various EMA's and pivot point) Ultimately though, bears stepped in on sellers 0,618 fib level (at D.) and pushed down heavily Bulls were unable to close above the 4H EMA - meaning that the 4H EMA will be a strong resistance on 7 March. A large double top formed with neckline and profit target (height of the market pattern) marked in black lines Bears broke the neckline down, with a neckline retest at F. and market pushed down further. Ultimately market moved 2594 pips from my entry and I closed half my position in the region of F. (1344 pips) Reason for closing at F. = bearish market pattern with neckline break The remaining half of my position will be left running and hope that NFP will buy tomorrow, otherwise I will be taken out at entry. I suspect that market may be weird today as we approach NFP tomorrow. What could I have done differently? No very happy with the pips I grabbed. I feel I should have closed out more pips since market moved so high. Looking at the 30min chart, there is a clear DT (at D.) and I should have taken profit at break of this neckline This would have meant I would have secured 630 pips more Bulls were so strong throughout the day and I was hoping that buyers would step in again at the 1H EMA. But a double top on the 30min TF at a seller's 0.618 fib level cannot be ignored! Happy Trading! :) TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance EMA = Exponential moving average DT = Double Top DB = Double Bottom
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 5 March 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:20am During analysis noted the following: So following on from Monday's analysis, I had identified the yellow highlighted area as my "Zone 2" area of interest This was a strong area of confluence because: It was the 4H 0,618 fib level (drawn from swing low at A to swing high at B) + Day 0,382 fib level + 4H EMA (position during the morning roughly marked in green) I entered a pretty big buy at C. and set my stop loss really low at the orange thick line. Ultimately I watched my position tank and took a big loss. This scenario has caught me out many times before. I know that before entering at a fib level, one should wait for price action to confirm the reversal. If you look at the price action at C. level, there is clearly no price action indicating a reversal. But if you trade Nasdaq and you know this index well, you will know that Nasdaq very often does not give price action confirmation on the bigger timeframes (15min and above) You see it all the time how Nasdaq will dip down touch an area and the spike back up, leaving a loooooong wick candle of a hundreds of pips. Some of my most profitable trades have been entering at these levels without price action confirmation. But like yesterday, it can also bite me in the behind. I still haven't figured this out yet. Maybe there is confirmation on a lower timeframe? If you know what I mean and have an antidote, please let me know! ;) My next area of interest was the green highlighted zone. This represented an area of confluence because: The D EMA was at this level This was also the Week 0,50 fib level This time I did wait for price action confirmation :) And in typical Nasdaq style, it only gave it to me way above my area i.e. 600 pips above where I would've wanted to enter (see what I mean). So I entered at D. - Confirmations: Market Pattern - a DB had formed on the 15min TF with a break of the neckline Candlesticks - neckline break with strong momentum candle Fib - W 0,50 fib level and market moving up S&R - Dynamic support from the D EMA Market moved up and I have secured my positions at entry, so trading risk free today. I hope market moves well today. Lots of news so could be choppy! What could I have done differently? Still trying to figure it out, but on the surface, I don’t think I could have done anything different other than cutting my losses sooner. As said, this strategy often pays off for me. All the best! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance EMA = Exponential moving average DT = Double Top DB = Double Bottom
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 4 March 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:20am (just before 1am EST) Looking exclusively for a buy because "the trend is your friend" During analysis noted the following: Price consolidating in a triangle on 1H (marked by blue circle) I feel the market will retrace today Two interest zones identified Zone 1: Area of confluence because - Pivot point 4H 0,382 fib level (fib drawn from swing low at A to swing high at B) Market pattern - Just past profit target if a double top forms; market tends to reverse at or near profit target to re-test the neckline. I like being part of a re-test that is the same as the overall trend (bullish in this case) Zone 2: Area of confluence because - 4H 0,618 fib level D 0,382 fib level 4H EMA (was in this region at time of analysis and throughout the day) I set buy limits at each zone as follows: A smallish buy position at Zone 1, because for me the confirmations are not soo strong and it really depends on price action so I will judge the market sentiment based on candles to see if I add more A large buy position at Zone 2, because these are strong confirmations and price should at least bounce from here. Ultimately a DT did form and break the neckline down. But market was very slow and none of my zones of interest were triggered. In the evening, I cancelled my buy order in Zone 1 because I felt market was very slow and I wouldn’t get the reaction that I wanted in this area. Clearly, investors are waiting for the inflationary data this week. What could I have done differently? Nothing Hope you had a good trading day! :) TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance EMA = Exponential moving average DT = Double Top DB = Double Bottom
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Friday 1 March 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 6:30am GMT (1:30 EST) During analysis noted the following: The February month candle closed as a green momentum candle, indicating a very bullish market, despite being at all-time highs and despite the worries around inflation / Feb rate cuts On the D TF, a beautiful DT had formed in the past few days, broken the neckline down and then price completed the pattern perfectly by moving down the same distance as the height of the market pattern The area at the pumpkin was an area of confluence because: It was the profit target of the DT (same distance as the height of the DT) It was the D 0,382 fib level, as well as coinciding with the W 0,382 fib level Generally, after reaching the profit target of a market pattern, price will reverse to test the neckline I like to be part of a re-test that is in the same direction as the overall trend (in this case bullish) From the pumpkin, price re-tested the neckline and with the help of inflation data news on 29 Feb (PCE and initial jobless claims), price broke through the neckline and continued upwards Meaning that the bullish trend CONTINUES!! Interesting to see how price came back down to test the temporary downtrend line marked in red. It was a deep retest of 830 pips by bears (pushing down till A.), but on 1H TF, you can see how bulls pushed back up and managed to close the candle at A. above the temp downtrend line So looking exclusively for a buy - the trend is your friend! At time of my analysis, price has reached TP1 (roughly at the pink horizontal line) of the move yesterday This means that market may retrace at this point, so I need to wait patiently for a convincing break of this area before buying, or alternatively, wait for the retracement before jumping in. Yellow highlighted area = area of good confluence: 4H EMA was in this zone at time of analysis 4H 0.618 fib level - a strong fib level (Fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.) Daily pivot point I set my Buy Limits in this zone for a big position size, due to strong confirmations Entered a buy at C. - Confirmations: Market seemed to have convincingly broken above the TP1 level (on 30min TF) and seemed to want to move directly to TP2 I don’t like buying at the very peak of price, so I entered a very small buy Ultimately price reversed and this position was in draw down I closed at entry as soon as price moved back up I was waiting for price to reach my yellow buy zone, but it never did. Price dipped to touch the 4H 0,50 fib level, and a DB appeared on the 15 min TF This indicated that price was ready to move up and would not reach my buy zone I entered a buy at D - Confirmations: Fib - price had touched the 4H 0,50 level and moved up Trend - entering a buy meant I was trading in the same direction as overall trend Market Pattern - DB formed on 15min TF at 4H 0,382 fib level Candle sticks - The red 1H candle at D. closed with a long wick touching the 0.50 fib level and closing above the 0,382 fib level I entered at half my total planned buy position in case market still moved down into my yellow buy zone and at the moment of entering a buy at D., I cancelled half of my buy limits as I had entered these positions higher at D. Ultimately market moved up 3000 pips and I took partial profit at TP 1 and closed above TP2. What could I have done differently? I am happy with my D position I should not have entered my position at C as there was not enough confirmations - I was lucky to be able to close at entry Hope you had a great trading day! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance EMA = Exponential moving average DT = Double Top DB = Double Bottom
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
NAS100 simple trading - follow the trend A very bullish market always needs a pullback. What a great Head and Shoulders pattern for a reversal to the downside. NAS100 has officially broken below all bullish trend lines on the Daily. NAS100 is looking to create more sell pressure. With NAS100 being at the top of its weekly trend, look for a correction. Massive sell if NAS100 cannot remain above the 4hr support zone. BULLS : Buy at 17588 4hr support, If candles remain above this area and create bullish momentum, look for a target at 17661. A new higher lower should be a confirmation for continuation to the upside. BEARS : Wait for a retest to 17661 with bearish candles, Do NOT sell now but wait for a retest *Previous sell opportunity: 17730 17665 This week's trading: Look for NAS100 to consolidate and respect market support and resistance areas. Once the market has made a decision, then we trade!
FX:NAS100
by nikdobii
NASDAQ ANALYSIS💸NASDAQ💸 Chart : 4Hour Overall Trend : Bullish Current Market Structure : Downtrend Scenario 1 : | If you look at the overall trend on Nasdaq , we are currently in a bullish market . As price is respecting our trend-line . Where price is now we are currently sitting at a 4Hour supply area ,where sellers can come into play . As CPI impulsive move to the downside was recovered by the correction phase . Possible sell opportunities on the lower timeframe if 4h supply area holds , counter trend
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Brehayne_
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 8 Feb 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Looking exclusively for buys - the trend is your friend! :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am During analysis noted the following: Bulls rallied over 2000 pips yesterday and overnight, had managed to keep price at this level. Market has consolidated in a triangle / rising wedge pattern (I felt it was more a rising wedge pattern based on the bodies of the candles) Rising wedge patterns tend to break down, but can break either way Pivot point and fib levels are far down from where price currently is, +- 800 pips. So I need to be careful buying because if the market does retrace, it is a big draw down that I will have to handle. Initial jobless claims will be released today - I feel that due to the sensitivity of the Fed / interest rate debate, this may cause volatility at time of release. Pivot point zone looks of interest to me as a potential buy zone because it is close to the 1H 0.382 fib level, creating an area of confluence. This fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B. To make matters a bit more exciting, I am not able to be at my trading screens today. This means I need to set my buy limits and hope for the best. I set my buy limit for 50% of my usual position size at C. - Confirmations: Fib - This represented the 0.382 fib level S&R - pivot point I set a second buy limit at D. for 50% of my usual position size - Confirmations: Fib - This represented the 0.618 fib level Trendline - blue uptrend line, intersecting this area S&R - 4H 20 EMA was roughly at this level Unfortunately, price never reached my buy zones. When I returned to my screens and did my analysis, I noted that the entry for today would have been quite clear. If I was trading properly today, I would have entered at E. because price made a nice double bottom just above my zone, by the 1H EMA. I would have entered on the break of the neckline, which also meant that price had broken back above the 1H EMA There was also a nice inverted hammer candle on the 1H TF, followed by a green momentum candle at E. further supporting the buy entry. Market moved up from here +- 700 pips. What could I have done differently? Nothing, as I wasn’t able to be at my desk today! :( Hope you had a good trading day! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance EMA = Exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 7 Feb 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:20am During analysis noted the following: The 4H EMA has acted as a strong support for 2 x 4H candles (marked at A.) The D neckline (you see it better on the line chart) that was previously broken down and re-tested by market, is resistance turned support & is acting as a strong support Trend is clearly uptrend - nearly seen from D line chart Looking exclusively for a buy - The trend is your friend Entered a sell (even though I just said I was looking for buys ;) ) at B - Confirmations: - Market Patterns - Market had broken the 4H neckline marked in pink, travelled down the same distance as the height of the pattern i.e. reach profit target and was now returning to test the neckline. The early morning bulls had pushed past the neckline but met bear resistance at C. It looked as if bears had won the battle as price was pushed below 1H + 30min EMA + pivot point at E. So even though I was looking for a buy, I believed market would sell as neckline failed the bull re-test - Candlesticks - Strong bear momentum candles between E. and B. on 15min through to 1 H TF - Fib - Point C. was at the seller's 0.618 fib retracement level and market was moving aggressively down - S&R - Pivot point had failed as support and 30min + 1H EMA was acting as resistance - Trendline - This was against the trend but I looked to me like a trend change in progress The 4H EMA + the red support line of the "D Neckline " was too strong for bears to break down and ultimately market moved up from here. I closed at my mental stop, which was the thick pink line, taking a loss of 445 pips. Usually I would have been discouraged that my first entry for the day did not work out. Usually, self-doubt creeps in and I become very insecure and hesitant. Today, I was determined not to let that happen and keep my mental state as level as possible. Watching price action carefully and needing to be convinced that market had indeed properly broken through the neckline, I entered a buy at D. - Confirmations: - Market Pattern - My initial reason for selling is not turned around so, price seemed to have convincingly broken through the neckline, meaning that the down trend was over and an uptrend would begin - Fib - Point B. was at the buyers 0.50 fib level, representing a strong fib level - Candlesticks - I opened a buy after a very long wick green hammer candle closed on the 15min TF. This represented market testing the pivot point one last time with a big rejection. - S&R - The 30min + 1H EMAs + pivot had turned into support - Trend - Trading with the overall trend which usually tends to be my most profitable trades. Also the orange temporary down trend had been broken Usually when self-doubt creeps in, I tend to open very small positions in an attempt not to increase my losses for the day. But this time I opened at my full position size. As market moved up, I closed partial profits to cover my losses for the day and still have a runner open which I will close as per what the candles are saying. Market has moved 1886 pips from my position, I am trading risk free (stop loss at entry) with my losses covered for the day. So I am a happy chappy! Ultimately I closed my position at 17739, when a double top started forming on the 30 min. What could I have done differently? I had analysed in the morning that the 4H EMA and the red slanted support line were very strong, but I choose to ignore that when I entered my sell as price was right at this level. I should have waited to see how price would react to these strong elements before jumping in. Hope you caught this nice buy! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance EMA = Exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
NAS100 - MONDAY'S SMALL SHORT FOR BIG LONG! (TARGET 17265)As you might have noticed, the Nasdaq is on fire and I'm more of a reversal trader so times are harder. But, there is an old saying that states: "the trend is your ". I forgot the rest but I'll let you figure out the last word. So in homage of this old saying, we'll tighten our bullish running shoes and propose a setup that satisfies both camps. Here's what I see happening on Monday (29/01/2024): What is on the chart? (follow the steps) 1) We have our liquidity target level which gave place to the continuation of the rally. So far so good for bulls, price is going up and their net worths too. 2) Our first reversal structure, with a low taken out and the high intact. 3) This is our retracement signal, confirming the market structure shift to the downside. This is paired with the fact that price broke the hourly Tenkan and Kijun + the Tenkan and the Kijun crossed over + breaking the Kumo + breaking the latest low. Additionally, the 4H Kijun and Tenkan reside within the 1H Kumo so those too were broken (not shown on the chart to promote clarity). These are reliable reversal signals. I am not trying to be a contrarian against the general trend but, this is how we spot general highs and lows. The daily is simply bullish so it's harder to spot a minor intraday opportunity such as this one. 4) This rejection confirms our reversal idea, and strengthens the probability of sellside liquidity getting taken out. 5) This is our final target, ideally the 1 Hour FVG. Again, on Monday anything can happen of course but this seems the most likely. I want these lows taken out before anything and, therefore we can short in anticipation of these lows getting taken out! Most importantly, take some rest and have a great weekend! ;)
FX:NAS100Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
2
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Monday 29 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. My feeling about today’s price action was that price would just consolidate as we all wait for this action packed week to kick off. No amount of technical analysis will help – bears or bulls will step in depending on the earnings + guidance provided this week and FOMC. My ideal plan would be to get a buy in as low as possible and then hopefully market would start pushing up in anticipation for the earnings on Tuesday. Then I would just hold as I expect earnings + guidance to be good and a further rally to ensue. At time of analysis I noted the following: Formation of a consolidation triangle (marked with turquoise lines) Double top had formed on 1H TF (marked at yellow dot with purple lines), reached profit target (at B.) and now coming back to test neckline Bears stepped in previously at A. (as seen by the red candles at A. on the 1H TF) but support of pivot point and 30min + 4H EMA was holding strong. Turquoise uptrend line confirmed with 3rd touch and close above at B. therefore validating this uptrend line. Green doji candle close on 1H TF at C. I entered a buy at D. – confirmations: S&R – price respecting 30min EMA well (when market is very bullish then this EMA is respected). When price started closing above the 1H EMA and 4H EMA, I knew that these EMA’s would not act as resistance. Candlesticks – 1H green doji right on pivot point Fib – none Trendline – Turquoise uptrend line respected It was an aggressive entry as 1H neckline still had not been broken through, but I felt that if market was going to drop from the neckline, then it would have done so at A. already. Due to aggressive nature of this entry, I entered only 20% of my usual position size. Mental stop was placed at thick pink line. Market moved up, I secured at entry but bulls could not break through the 4H neckline at E. on this attempt. Unfortunately, market came back down to take me out at entry. I decided to stay out as market was choppy. Unfortunately, price eventually took off without me. So I missed out on the move that I was anticipating and hoping for. But Nasdaq is never short of entry opportunities, and I live to trade another day. Hope you caught the buy! What could I have done differently: I should have set a buy limit at B. the night before, because price had not travelled the full distance as the height of the market pattern at the yellow dot. This would have been such a great level to enter and hold for earnings! Next time ;) TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Friday 26 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) I'm reading a trade phycology book called the "Mental Game of Trading" by Jared Tendler. In it he explains that each trader has a C-game (where all your worst mistakes are made), a B-game (where you are a little bit profitable but are still making some mistakes) and an A-game (where you are really performing well). Today, I was making every single mistake in my C-game. Trading against the trend, cutting trades too soon, flip-flopping from a sell to a buy and chasing price. Don't know what the hell happened, that I suddenly made all these mistakes. But I am out for the day (at a loss, of course). Not trading when I am clearly in my C-game mentality! Disaster ;( But despite my horrible trading day....January has been my most profitable trading month ever. Bad days happen - one bad trading day does not make you a bad trader (don't let it get you down - just learn from it). Hope you are having a better day....good luck!
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Thursday 25 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. Looking exclusively for a buy – “The trend is your friend” Tesla earnings came in below expectations and Tesla execs advised of lower growth for 2024. Not good. Risk for the day was that Nasdaq might take a dip based on Tesla Earnings release. But what makes trading in ”earnings week/s” hard is that you never how what investors will be sensitive to. At time of analysis I noted the following: A double bottom had formed on the 1H TF (marked by black lines). Market was tracking a temporary uptrend line (marked in purple). 1H and 30min EMA + pivot point was above the candles (so bulls would need some strength to break through and would they have it after Tesla earnings?) Long wick candles had formed on the 1H TF rejecting the 0.50 buy fib level (fib drawn from swing low at B. to swing high at D.) A massive head and shoulders pattern had formed on the 1H TF (indicated by the pink lines) The neckline of this pink pattern was just above the 1H EMA, so a big chance for bears to step in and cause a big push down. I entered a buy at A. (at 60% of my usual position size) – Confirmations: Fib – candles rejecting the 0.50 buy fib level Candlesticks – long wick candles on the 1H TF Market pattern – break of the neckline of the double bottom on the 1H TF Trendline – market respecting the purple uptrend line An aggressive entry, especially based on what bulls had to break through after negative Telsa news. Mental stop loss placed by the thick pink line – if candles started breaking below 0.50 fib level then buy is invalidated. Bears fought hard at the neckline of the 1H head and shoulders, you can see the two red candles after A. Eventually bulls came out victorious and market pushed up. On New York open, market pushed down heavily to retest the pivot point and seems now (at time of writing) to be moving up. I closed 50% of my position when I noted that market open might push down hard. It can often be the case that New York has a totally different sentiment to the earlier traders and I was sensitive again to the bad Tesla earnings. Luckily I still have quite a significant runner open and will judge by price action on when to take profit – but rough plan is to maybe take profit once more today and consider leaving a runner for next week’s (hopefully) good earnings from some of the Magnificent Seven stocks. What could I have done differently: Sounds all good and easy on paper…but the reality is that I chickened out at E. and closed my full position. I re-entered again at about A. when I saw bulls regaining strength. I was super scared that bears would dominate, as the potential move down (the same distance as the height of the pattern) could have been to C. One of my development goals currently is learning to stick to my trade plan. Market was not at my stop loss and I acted out of fear. These small losses eat away unnecessarily at profit. Hope you navigated the market well today…it was a tough one! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 24 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. Looking exclusively for a buy – “The trend is your friend” Netflix earnings came in showing good forecasts Risk for the day was that there may be hesitancy for traders to step into the market, as we wait for Tesla to report. At time of analysis I noted the following: Temporary pink downtrend line had been broken and retested at A. (also retest of pivot). Candles showing strong bull presence in the market (green momentum candles on 1H and 4H candles are all green). Rising wedge formation noted and marked in green lines 1H 20 EMA is tracking the dark blue trend line almost perfectly If market retraces, I would enter a buy with my full position size. Watching price action, I entered a buy at C. (at 20% of my usual position size). Confirmations: Market Pattern – Rising wedge formation formed on the 1H TF. Usually this pattern breaks to the downside but can break either way. Market broke to the upside this time. News – Netflix earning release + forecast were really good This was an aggressive entry – lack of strong confirmations. I usually don’t like buying at the peak, hence my small position size. But market sentiment was extremely bullish. Market pushed up, broke through the top line of the Day ascending wedge (marked in light blue), retested at E. and took off from there. Ultimately market moved up 1800 pips from my position. Logically I would have liked to close half my position size at the peak and leave the rest running in case Tesla earnings came out well and market moved further up. However, candles did not give a clear reversal pattern on the lower TF and by the time it did, the monetary value was not significant enough for me to actually take profit. I decided that because it was such an aggressive entry, that I might as well be aggressive and keep the whole position open and see what Tesla earnings does. Unfortunately for me, market came crashing down and I was out at entry with ZERO pips for the day. What could I have done differently: At the time market reversed, I was no longer in front of my trading screens and was monitoring on my phone. My ability to judge and “feel” a shift in sentiment from the price action is significantly reduced. I think that if I was in front of my screens I would have taken partial profits, but we can’t be in front of the screens 24/7. Ultimately, I will never regret a situation where I decide to be aggressive and then am out at entry. If Telsa had come out differently I would have been smiling all the way to the bank, so, happy to have taken that “go big or go home” risk. Hope you made some good bucks out of this move! TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review – Tuesday 23 Jan 2024I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :) Did my analysis at +- 5:20am. At time of analysis I noted the following: I still had some buy positions running from yesterday. Noted that the early morning bulls had pushed up and were respecting the orange uptrend line. Unfortunately, bulls could not break through the pivot point and a double top formed close to C. on the 1H TF. When a doji candle closed at C. (bulls again not able to break through pivot point, which was also the 0.382 Fib sell retracement level (fib drawn from swing high at A. to swing low at B.)) – I knew market would sell and I closed all my buys from yesterday at a small loss. In my trading style, I would only want to trade with the trend (the trend is your friend). I felt like Nasdaq would not buy any further today until we have earnings forecasts on the table which justify a further rally. That would not come during the trading day today, because we are all waiting for Netflix tonight and Tesla tomorrow. Until there is a bigger TF confirmation of a sell, I am not interested in taking intraday sells on such a strong bull trend. My view was that market would consolidate and be choppy today. Judging by the price action, I feel it was. I did not enter again today but I do have a buy limit at E. because this is an area of confluence: Market pattern – At this level price would have moved down the same distance as the height of the 4H Head & Shoulders and would most probably retest the neckline. I like being part of a re-test that is in the same direction as the overall trend. S&R: 4H EMA is in this region Fib: this area is close to the 0.618 buy fib level and also in the proximity of the sellers TP2. What could I have done differently: Glad I stayed out today. Hope you managed to squeeze out some pips! Although not for me personally, the sell from D. was nice – 0.618 sell fib + 4H neckline + 1H & 4H market pattern (timeframe confluence). TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support and resistance EMA = exponential moving average
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Crash Loading - The Black Swan The current state of the NASDAQ indicates an extreme overbought condition, with a rally influenced by speculation surrounding six potential rate cuts in 2024. However, the risk arises from the Federal Reserve's concern about inflation. If the Fed, in response to persistent inflation, opts to raise rates, it could lead to a market decline. Conversely, a decision to cut rates may not be sufficient to buoy the stock market if the number of cuts is lower than expected. Examining current fundamentals, the housing market has stabilized with low prices and mortgage rates. Although there is a rebound, a potential increase in housing speculation and mortgage rates could prompt a reassessment. Improved employee wages contribute to consumer confidence against inflation. President Joe Biden's initiatives, such as pausing student loan payments in November and plans to provide homes for 500,000 Americans, may stimulate housing demand, causing prices to rise. This could prompt a review of interest rates and a tightening of monetary policies. While I maintain a long-term bullish outlook, anticipating a correction of at least 50%, it is prudent to reevaluate macroeconomic indicators at that point to determine whether to take profits or continue holding.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by ttfx098_