Nasdaq Intraday Review - Wednesday 3 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - ADP Non-farm Employment Change + initial jobless claims
Early market close today - volume & volatility may be light today
Directional bias - BUY
During early morning analysis noted the following:
Yesterday the bulls pushed higher, breaking out from the 4H consolidation triangle that had formed. Bulls managed to close the D candle higher than the previous highest D close.
Bulls were flexing muscles yesterday.
Usually the profit target on a break out of a consolidation triangle is the same height as the height of the triangle itself (marked in orange lines). This means that theoretically we can expect a significant move up.
I suspect that price may retrace today - possibly a shallow retracement before moving up because bulls will be pushing for the orange profit target.
Identified two areas of interest (as at 6am GMT) highlighted in green. If price comes to these areas, I will enter a buy at my full position size;
Area 1:
Pivot point + 4H 0.382 fib level (drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.) + 1H 0.618 fib level (drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D)
Area 2:
Top of the consolidation triangle (i.e. assuming market would want to re-test this market pattern) + 4H 0.50 fib level + 4H EMA (EMA was at this area in the morning)
But I think it is unlikely that price will come down this far because the retest of the consolidation triangle already happened on the 1H TF i.e. the red candle close to C. (quite a high time frame thus representing a strong re-test)
Noted another consolidation triangle formed on the 1H TF (as marked by the dark pink lines) during the morning hours.
Entered a buy as price started breaking upwards from the market pattern (indicated by the hand).
I generally don't like to enter on these early morning market patterns because I've seen they are often prone to fake-outs on Nas100.
But I was watching price action carefully on the 5min, 15min and 30min TF's and bulls seemed to hold breakout strong. I entered gradually as my confidence rose that this is not a fake out.
Mental stop was placed below the consolidation triangle (marked with the thick pink line).
Market moved up by more than 250 pips and I secured my trades at entry.
Bears stepped in forcing a retracement and I was out at entry.
Price touched the 1H EMA and this was enough dynamic support to invite bulls back into play.
At this moment I was very distracted with work deadlines an unable to pay the close attention to my charts as I usually do. So I did not re-enter.
But looking back at the candles now, the buy entry at E. was not an easy one. Nas did not give clear confirmation. The bulls momentum candle was right as the US session opened at 14h30.
There was no nice DB on the 5min nor the 15min TF (which are the TF's I use for precision entries).
The bullish momentum candle came up so high that it just didn't feel right (to me).
Perhaps the correct entry would have been at F. which was the re-test of the uptrend pink line and also the 0.618 fib level on the 1H TF (fib drawn from swing low E. at to swing high at G.) But this entry style is not my entry style.
Usually what I do to combat these kinds of situations is to leave a small runner open. So for example if I had a successful trade open yesterday and market moved up +- 2'000 pips let's say...then I would leave a small runner open.
For me, it removes the FOMO I feel when Nas just turns around without much confirmation, because then I still feel like I am "part of" the big move up and dont feel like I am missing out.
Then my runners take advantage of days like today and I re-enter my bigger positions into the uptrend on strong retracement interest areas.
I recently closed all my runner's on the 3 bear day candle closes.
Hope you caught this nice buy!
If you did...tell me how you got in!?
Not trading tomorrow....see ya Friday!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
