Nasdaqshort
NDX : It's time to take a step backThis is a level I'll be closely watching for making aggressive additions. Until then, only selective entries in U.S. Oil ETFs, Silver and Gold ETFs, and a few individual stocks may be considered. However, large-scale accumulation is not advisable until this level is reached.
I may also consider dollar-cost averaging into index ETFs if I start to see signs of consolidation from here onward.
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If my perspective changes or if I gather additional fundamental data that influences my views, I will provide updates accordingly.
Thank you for following along with this journey, and I remain committed to sharing insights and updates as my trading strategy evolves. As always, please feel free to reach out with any questions or comments.
Other posts related to this particular position and scrip, if any, will be attached underneath. Do check those out too.
Disclaimer : The analysis shared here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in all markets carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It’s essential to conduct your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this analysis are solely mine. It’s important to note that I am not a SEBI registered analyst, so the analysis provided does not constitute formal investment advice under SEBI regulations.
Short Position - NASDAQShort Position Entry: Consider initiating a short position if the Nasdaq-100 Index falls below 21,000.
Stop Loss (SL): Set a stop loss at 21,555 to manage potential losses.'
Market Sentiment: The combination of the Federal Reserve's cautious approach and rising inflation may contribute to a weakening market sentiment, potentially leading to a downward movement in the index.
his recommendation is for educational purposes only. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Stock trading involves risks, including the potential loss of capital. Ensure to evaluate your risk tolerance and conduct thorough research.
Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq: BTC Shows Signs of Decoupling Amid US Stock
For years, the narrative surrounding Bitcoin’s price action has been inextricably linked to the performance of traditional financial markets, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite. Often moving in lockstep, Bitcoin was viewed by many as a high-beta asset, amplifying the gains during bullish periods and suffering even steeper losses when risk sentiment soured in equities. However, recent market movements have sparked a crucial question among investors and analysts alike: is Bitcoin finally beginning to forge its own path, decoupling from the gravitational pull of U.S. stocks as they face mounting headwinds?
The past few weeks have witnessed a notable divergence. While U.S. stock markets, reeling from a confluence of factors including escalating geopolitical tensions stemming from a potential “Trump tariff war,” persistent inflation concerns highlighted by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish warnings of “higher inflation and slower growth,” and broader macroeconomic anxieties, have experienced a significant downturn – shedding a staggering $3.5 trillion in value – Bitcoin has demonstrated a surprising degree of resilience, even posting gains in some instances. This nascent divergence has ignited a wave of optimism among Bitcoin proponents who have long yearned for the digital asset to be recognized and traded based on its own fundamental merits, rather than as a mere proxy for risk-on sentiment in the equity markets.
The concept of Bitcoin decoupling from traditional assets has been a recurring theme in the cryptocurrency space. The original thesis for Bitcoin, after all, positioned it as a decentralized, censorship-resistant store of value and a hedge against traditional financial system vulnerabilities. Its finite supply, its independence from central banks and government policies, and its inherent scarcity were touted as key differentiators that would eventually lead it to trade independently. However, the reality of the past few years has often painted a different picture, with institutional adoption bringing increased correlation with established asset classes.
The current shift, however tentative, offers a glimmer of hope for those who believe in Bitcoin’s unique value proposition. The factors contributing to the stock market slump – trade war anxieties, inflation fears, and the prospect of tighter monetary policy – arguably strengthen the case for Bitcoin as an alternative asset. In times of economic uncertainty and currency debasement concerns, the fixed supply and decentralized nature of Bitcoin could become increasingly attractive to investors seeking a safe haven outside the traditional financial system.
Furthermore, the increasing maturity of the Bitcoin market, with the development of more sophisticated trading instruments, greater institutional participation, and a deeper understanding of its underlying technology, may be contributing to its growing independence. As Bitcoin gains broader acceptance as a legitimate asset class, its price discovery mechanisms may become less reliant on the sentiment driving traditional equity markets.
However, it is crucial to approach this apparent decoupling with a degree of caution. While the recent divergence is encouraging for Bitcoin bulls, it is too early to definitively declare the long-awaited break has finally arrived. Market correlations can be fluid and influenced by a multitude of factors. A sudden shift in global risk sentiment or a significant negative event specific to the cryptocurrency space could easily re-establish the link between Bitcoin and traditional assets.
Adding a layer of complexity to the current narrative is the warning from some analysts regarding a potential Bitcoin price correction. Despite the recent resilience, multiple BTC price forecasting models have pointed towards a scenario where Bitcoin could fall back to its 2021 all-time high of around $70,000 in a relatively short timeframe – some even suggesting this could occur within the next ten days. This potential “crash risk,” as one analyst termed it, is attributed to various technical and market cycle indicators.
The notion that $70,000 could represent Bitcoin’s “practical bottom,” as suggested by some, highlights the inherent volatility and speculative nature of the cryptocurrency market. Even if Bitcoin is beginning to decouple from traditional equities, it remains susceptible to its own unique set of risks and price swings. Factors such as regulatory developments, network security concerns, and shifts in investor sentiment within the crypto space can still exert significant influence on its price.
Therefore, while the current divergence between Bitcoin and the struggling U.S. stock market offers a compelling narrative and fuels the hopes of long-term Bitcoin holders, it is essential to maintain a balanced perspective. The confluence of factors driving the stock market decline could indeed be creating an environment where Bitcoin’s unique characteristics become more appealing, leading to a sustained period of independent price action. However, the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market and the potential for a significant correction remind investors that the journey towards true decoupling is likely to be a complex and potentially bumpy one.
In conclusion, the recent market dynamics present a fascinating juncture for Bitcoin. The initial signs of decoupling from the crumbling U.S. stock market, driven by a confluence of macroeconomic anxieties and the potential for Bitcoin to act as an alternative store of value, are undeniably encouraging for those who believe in its long-term potential. However, the warnings of a potential price correction underscore the inherent risks within the cryptocurrency space. Whether this nascent decoupling marks a definitive shift in Bitcoin's market behavior or proves to be a temporary divergence remains to be seen. Investors would be wise to monitor these trends closely, remaining cognizant of both the potential for independent growth and the ever-present risks associated with this dynamic and evolving asset class. The coming weeks and months will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can truly forge its own path in the face of traditional market turmoil.
Bearish Alert: Nasdaq’s Downtrend May Deepen Beyond 5%Hey Realistic Traders, Will CAPITALCOM:US100 Bearish Trend Stop? Let’s Dive In....
On the H4 timeframe, Nasdaq continues to follow the bearish trendline and the EMA-200 . Both trend analysis tools clearly signal a bearish trend. The downtrend may persist as a rising wedge pattern has formed, followed by a breakout and a MACD crossover.
Based on these technical signals, I anticipate a potential downward movement toward the first target at 19,077. After reaching this level, a minor pullback is likely before the decline continues toward a new low at 18,544.
This outlook remains valid as long as the price move below the stop-loss level at 20,080
Besides technical factors, U.S. President Donald Trump still intends to implement new reciprocal tariff rates on April 2, adding further uncertainty to the market. This could limit growth potential and contribute to an inflationary environment by increasing the cost of imported goods. Given this uncertainty, we believe the market will continue to decline.
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Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Nasdaq.
NAS100 Potential Intraday Shorts (Technical Analysis)Technical Outlook:
The price action since late February has been decisively bearish, characterized by a significant decline throughout March, indicating a clear mid-term distribution phase. We observed a recent rejection from a 4H and 1H supply zone (which fell within a pronounced drop-base-drop pattern). Notably, the most recent downward push failed to establish new lows. This follows a period of rapid decline with minimal bullish resistance. This suggests two possibilities:
Bulls are strategically allowing sellers to exhaust themselves before a potential countermove.
The prevailing bearish momentum is overpowering any attempts at bullish recovery.
Trading Considerations:
The daily candle has formed a bearish engulfing pattern, confirming strong selling pressure. My trading strategy involves waiting for a price retracement back into the identified supply zone. This pullback would serve to fill existing price imbalances and trigger resting orders above, providing an opportunity to enter short positions with improved risk-to-reward ratios on lower timeframes (LTFs). Currently, there are no indications of significant bullish manipulation. Therefore, I anticipate continued downward momentum this week. It's plausible that we might witness a final bearish surge coinciding with the FOMC announcement before a potential bullish reversal - a hypothetical scenario based on technical analysis.
Final Notes:
The previous instance of the price trading this far below the 200 EMA occurred in December 2022, marking the culmination of a year-long bearish trend. While we are currently only one month into this downward movement, it's crucial to remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. Although a bullish rally is possible, I will maintain a bearish bias and focus on short opportunities until a clear bullish reversal pattern emerges on the 4H and 1H timeframes. When such a reversal occurs, we will be ready to capitalize on the subsequent upward trend! ;)
Nas100 1. Market Structure & Context
The market has been in a bullish uptrend within a rising channel (trendlines).
A "Diagonal Expecting" zone suggests a potential exhaustion of bullish momentum.
A "Trend Trap" indicates a possible liquidity grab before a major move.
2. ICT Concepts Applied
Liquidity Grab & Manipulation:
The market may have engineered liquidity above the previous highs before the sell-off.
The "Sell Off" label suggests Smart Money could be distributing positions at the premium levels.
Market Structure Shift (MSS):
If the price breaks the trend trap zone with conviction, it signals a shift from bullish to bearish order flow.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) & Price Targets:
The first take-profit level at 16,529.9 aligns with an area where liquidity might rest.
The final target at 14,125.1 suggests price filling an imbalance or mitigating an order block (OB) at a lower timeframe.
3. Expected Move
Potential Short-Term Rebound:
A small retracement could occur before the major drop (blue projection).
Overall Bearish Expectation:
A strong downward move into lower levels where Smart Money may reaccumulate positions.
Conclusion
This chart is anticipating a significant bearish move after a liquidity grab at highs, with take-profit zones aligning with ICT principles like FVG fills and order block mitigation. If the market respects these areas, traders could look for confirmation (e.g., displacement, breaker structures) to enter short positions.
NASDAQ100Hello friends
Our ascending channel had a strong break and considering the negative news, how far do you think the decline will continue?
The support levels identified can help you trade, but we need to see where the price will go with the news that will be announced this week...
*Trade safely with us*
NASDAQ 100 Elliott Wave Analysis – A High-Probability Setup in P📌 Is the NASDAQ 100 in a Bearish Impulse Wave?
Based on Elliott Wave analysis, NASDAQ 100 appears to be in Wave 3 of an ongoing bearish impulse (Wave A or 1). This setup suggests that after the current downward move, we might see a corrective structure before another leg down.
Key Insights:
🔹 Wave Structure: The first wave of this move was a leading diagonal, followed by a pullback. Now, we are likely in Wave 3, which could extend further before a corrective phase begins.
🔹 Retracement Zones: After Wave 3 completes, we expect a corrective structure (Wave 4), which typically retraces between 38.2% and 50% of Wave 3 before Wave 5 resumes.
🔹 Trading Strategy: The most favorable entry zone would be during Wave 5 of A (or 1), ideally in lower timeframes such as H1, H4, or even M15. Before entering a trade, we need to confirm a three-wave corrective structure—whether it forms a sideways correction or a complex zigzag.
📌 Critical Levels to Watch:
A break into Wave 1 territory could invalidate the impulse structure and shift the outlook.
If the corrective phase is shallow, a deeper drop may still be on the table.
🚀 Patience is key! Once the correction completes, the next move could offer a strong trading opportunity.
#NASDAQ100 #ElliottWave #StockMarket #TradingSetup #BearishImpulse
💬 What’s your take? Are we heading lower, or will the market surprise us?
NASDAQ: Bearish Engulfing PatternWhat is a bearish engulfing?
A bearish engulfing pattern, which is a technical chart pattern that indicates that lower prices are on the way. The pattern consists of an up candlestick (white or green) followed by a big down candlestick (black or red) that eclipses or "engulfs" the smaller up candle.
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and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations.
Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing.
This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.