Nasdaq sell ideaOANDA:NAS100USD
Retest at 17 438 for a potential move to the downside after price broke bullish structure on the 1h.
Nasdaqshort
NAS100 - MY DAILY AND INTRADAY ANALYSES (TARGET 17300)Yes this is contrarian, markets are booming but it's quite overextended and going long at a top is the most monkey trader thing to do. I'll do a reverse analysis where I start with the intraday and follow up with the daily. So here's my take on things:
What's on the intraday chart? (Follow the steps)
1) A 4 hour bearish FVG. This will serve as my entry zone.
2) Our 'support line'. You'll notice price keeps on making lower lows.
3) Our liquidity target. This is the price magnet. We know for certain (discretionary) that price will take this out.
4) The entry point. Again, do your own research. Do not follow the analysis from some random stranger on the internet and go all in (you degenerate).
5) The intraday target. The order of things matter. If we hit this before hitting the short entry then you might wanna reverse the idea but I do not like the idea of longing in an overextended market!
What's on the daily chart? (Follow the steps)
1) The previous all time high that was violently broken.
2) Our swing extension target area. This is great to know where to take partials or close entire positions in new price territories. Of course price can always go further towards 2 or 2.618 or anything else (it's up to you where you wanna take partials).
3) The bearish candle pattern: kind-of a mix between a gravestone, a spinning top, a shooting star and whatever other label I can muster to justify my bias lol. To me this is the main driver of the bearish bias!
4) Maximum target. I do not see price going any lower and the intraday target is more sane so I don't really expect price to go that low either.
5) The continuation of the rally. People love buying. I do not see that changing anytime soon.
As always, have a lovely day and happy trading! ;)
Nasdaq Crash Loading - The Black Swan The current state of the NASDAQ indicates an extreme overbought condition, with a rally influenced by speculation surrounding six potential rate cuts in 2024. However, the risk arises from the Federal Reserve's concern about inflation. If the Fed, in response to persistent inflation, opts to raise rates, it could lead to a market decline. Conversely, a decision to cut rates may not be sufficient to buoy the stock market if the number of cuts is lower than expected.
Examining current fundamentals, the housing market has stabilized with low prices and mortgage rates. Although there is a rebound, a potential increase in housing speculation and mortgage rates could prompt a reassessment. Improved employee wages contribute to consumer confidence against inflation.
President Joe Biden's initiatives, such as pausing student loan payments in November and plans to provide homes for 500,000 Americans, may stimulate housing demand, causing prices to rise. This could prompt a review of interest rates and a tightening of monetary policies.
While I maintain a long-term bullish outlook, anticipating a correction of at least 50%, it is prudent to reevaluate macroeconomic indicators at that point to determine whether to take profits or continue holding.
Will stock market crash in 2024?Hello everyone i want share my idea bout NAS100 price action at higher timeframe, here i will tell some reasons why stock market will stop moving up and change it will change trend.
First we had at stock market pretty good bullish movement in 2023. If we look economy of America they are in trouble, last few months of 2023 we had pretty bearish movement at US20 bond and DXY (Dollar index) but this year Dollar started positive trend with positive fundamentally news, Interest rates are high and it need correction, everyone in 2024 waiting for interest rate cuts but we don't have yet any indicative new which will approve rate cuts.
In last of autumn i published my idea about US20 bond and dollar index where i was bearish ( I will share that idea in this post) i was thinking bearish trend for high interest rates, after autumn us economy and dollar start fall until 2024 January.
If this price movement of dollar will continue that trend and the fundamentally will help then we will get new rates which will be lower. if we look NAS100 with technical analysis we have new all time high and big weekly divergence, if that divergence will work we will get lower rates and new opportunity for invest in stock market.
In second post i will talk my idea about stock SunPower corporation, which price will follow lower rate and it is perfect investment if rates will cut.
NASDAQ Sell OpportunityPrice provided with a head & shoulder pattern plus an AB=CD pattern. I am anticipating bearishness after a long the newly formed Lower Low
NAS100 - MY INTRADAY ANALYSIS (TARGET 16630)Here I'm trying to change things up with a smaller timeframe (15min) analysis because the daily is nice but how does one trade that? Well here you have it.
What is on the chart?
1) Yesterday's session low, aka sellside liquidity, that hasn't yet been taken out which gives us a juicy target for the day.
2) Yesterday's consolidation that gave the upper hand to bulls in the AM session but now it serves us for our bearish bias of the day.
3) Price wicking once more in the daily FVG and not taking out the high. Great news for bears.
4) Price retraced back into the reload zone (0.702 notably) and furthered its descent into bear territory.
5) Bearish 1 hour order block. Will be used partly for our entry coupled with the fibs.
6) London session lows that will also serve as a target. When there's an accumulation of targets it increases the probability of success when placing a trade aiming in that direction.
7) My ideal entry. To your own discretion, I can afford losing 1%, can you? (affording something isn't just monetary can also be psychological. Can you cope with losing your money once more because of the idea of a stranger on the internet?)
8) The outcome I'm looking for. If we're going for a bearish scenario this is what should (I want to) happen.
NOTE: Retail Sales data release 08:30 NY time. Could make it or break it.
Happy trading and have a nice day! ;)
NAS100 - MY BEARISH SCENARIO (TARGET 16500)What are we looking at?
1) An all-time-high (ATH) to end 2023 with fireworks and champagne.
2) A sneaky daily bearish FVG that we know is relevant thanks to step 5 and 7.
3) A retracement creating a range that ends on the notorious 0.618 fib level (weekly fib).
4) The continuation of the general trend, price pulls back into the range and creates a daily bullish FVG. It is indeed plausible that price does continue and forms a new ATH but for arguments sake, I prefer the probabilities a short gives me in a premium market with more liquidity to grab on the sellside.
5) Price halts in the bearish FVG mentioned in step 2 and prior to that created a 4H bullish FVG.
6) The CPI release had price wick into the 4H FVG and back into the consolidation we go!
7) Price wicking at multiple occasions in the daily bearish FVG which is to me a primary signal for a short setup despite all the bullish price action around it. Listen, if price breaks buyside aggressively, no short will be taken. We need price to break a low and then a short structure may present itself.
8) Here we have the potential break to the downside, taking out sellside liquidity. We can also call this a break-of-structure.
9) A pullback for a potential short entry and voilà.
10) 2 targets for partials.
NFA and happy trading guys! ;)
NASDAQ ANALYSIS💸NASDAQ💸
Chart : Daily
Overall Trend : Bullish
Current Market Structure : Downtrend
Scenario 1 :
Price is currently waiting to create new higher high on the daily time frame . This cause also give us a confluence as to bullish momentum coming to an end .
I will be looking for intra day set ups . But I would like to see how price reacts to our Daily OB .
If we do respect our daily OB price will continue moving towards the upside .
Scenario 2 :
If we do not respect our daily OB . We can expect price to move towards the downside ,signifying that bearish momentum has come into play . & We can look for shorts
Nasdaq sell signal Analysis Greetings traders, recently NQ has seen significant bullish momentum. While I maintain a bullish outlook for the long term, I anticipate a short-term retracement in the upcoming week before potential further upward movement, I'm interstend on shorting it at the FVG after a BOS while it's creating a MMSM .
Nasdaq weakness before Christmas?Nasdaq weakness before Christmas?
Barely hanging on to gains in a streak lasting ten days, US stocks managed to recover from initial losses and were trading slightly higher on Wednesday. The attempt to secure a tenth consecutive session of gains pushed the Nasdaq 100 to a new record high of 16,830.
In December, the Nasdaq has seen an increase of over 5%, and its performance for 2023 stands at 43%, on track for its best year since 2020. These gains can be attributed to expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year. Additionally, positive economic data this week exceeded expectations, with existing home sales unexpectedly rising and CB consumer confidence experiencing its most significant increase since early 2021.
The NAS100 Index is currently trading above both the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend. However, it is not far from yesterday’s close which raises caution, as it could suggest either a consolidation phase or a potential reversal.
In the short term, there may be some weakness targeting the 16,750 area and 16,400, the latter being the level where consolidation occurred at the beginning of December before the most recent upward movement.
NASDAQ Long Term Short PositionNAS moving in a parallel channel, getting resistance with bearish divergence on weekly time frame.
It's a long term trade so manage your risk accordingly.
Nasdaq 100 - Sell (Double Top, H&S Pattern, 0.618 Fib Extension)- Double top formation forming on the Daily/Weekly chart
- Head & Shoulders Pattern potential to form (2nd top in double top is the head of H&S patter)
- Price has reached Fibo 0.618 extension, potential area for reversal
- Mean reversion back to the long term trend line (excluding the inflationary impact of money
printing)
- News celebrating all time high, contrarian approach to avoid masses excitement/hysteria.
Large Sells Expected Here†LL LLHs being established. = downtrend. We are currently within 79% and 88.7% range of the previous swing. expecting price to finish its bullish correction in this zone then tank to create another lower low
NAS100USD ShortAccording to the index price movement, there is a formation of a rising flag, which might be a potential reversal hence a bearish momentum.
Also, there is a bearish dragonfly doji candle according to the higher timeframes (1D), which might be a potential bearish reversal in the price.
My entry point is at 15950 after the price has retested the support zone of the flag. SL at 16200, just above the resistance zone. Take Profit at 15200, with a R: R of 1:3.
Note, that risk is only 1% of your account.
Lower Imbalance to be filledPrice has been on a flawless uptrend initiating since the end of October. Being that price just put in yet another high above previous weekly levels as well as daily, I am expecting price to have a correction. Not only due to the natural course of price but also to the fact that a 200+ point fair value gap has been left below price. Price can retrace beyond 300+ points and still be in a definitive uptrend at the moment.
NAS100 - SHORTSelling only after the retest of the HMA
**This is just my trading thought process and does not constitute as financial advice.
**Please trade with proper risk management**
nasdaq active tradeTVC:NDQ I'm in sell already, not a trade advice. please do your own research.
Reason for sell was because, price already hit my take profit, and at 1:30pm NY time, I start to hunt for a change in market structure. On the 15min, I got that.
Went short there, 33.6rr
US100 SHORT, NASDAQ SHORTPrice has recently into an area of resistance, I'll be expecting price to trade down as marked on the chart. My setup for the week to come until take profit is hit. HAPPY TRADING
NASDAQ - NQ Black-Swan ScenarioThe Red Pitchfork is a Pendulum-Fork.
It grabs the biggest Swings and projects the most probable path of price, like in this chart.
The Count starts at P0 and relies on the REAL Swings that I teach you guys & gals. Therefore the Bump from the green Support-Line is NOT a Up-Swing. It's just the center part of a Sine-Wave.
Then P3 is created, breaking the Support from the Low of P1, and continues up to the Center-Line of the Orange Pitchfork at P4.
Since we know that
a) price has a high chance to turn in the opposite direction after reaching the Center-Line
AND
b) The Pivot Count ends and restarts at P5
AND
c) Price is still trading within the Red Pendulum-Fork
...we have a 80% Chance to reach the Center-Line of the Pendulum Fork around 1100 or even lower.
By when?
No clue yet, but have to drink another Coffee to read in the Ground again later §8-)
OK, I admit, that's a kind of a Black-Swan event.
But, I just follow my rules, my Framework and that is what I currently see.
The opposite side of this is, that the 0-3/5 Count is just a simple "Flag", and price Skyrockets to the green Center-Line of the Green Fork, around 16050 - 16250,
Taking the overall World situation, the incredible debt of countries like the USA, EU and others into the Blue-Print, I vote for the first scenario.
My Helmet sits tight.
Peace4TheWorld!
NASDAQ 100 INDEX (NDX)Target makes an impulse wave to wave 5 downtrend
- Stop Loss (15134.6)
- Target 1 (14304.0)
- Target 2 (14096.4)
- Target 3 (13888.7)
