Nasdaqsignals
NASDAQ The 3 Phase of its Bull Cycle.Nasdaq (NDX) had a strong closing last week, rallying aggressively after cementing the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. As the market will stay closed today on Washington's Holiday, it is a good opportunity to take the time and look at the bigger picture.
Nasdaq's whole Bull Cycle so far since the late 2022 market bottom, can be categorized into 3 separate Phases of Growth. Right now we are naturally on the 3rd and as you see, compared to the previous Phases, we are on the 2nd accumulation of the Phase. This has led on a strong rally of at least +22% that completed each Phase.
Each Phase has two such accumulations and the 2nd is what makes the Channel Up peak and then correct back to the 1D MA200 (red trend-line). Since the final accumulation rally of Phase 1 has been +25.78% and the one of Phase 2 +22.13%, we may have a -3.50% decrease rate between each Phase rally. Assuming this to be the case this time around too, we may be looking for a +18.60% rally at 24000 to complete Phase 3.
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US100 Trade Log - CPI Pre-ShotUS100 long ahead of "CPI release" , pre-shot long for Asia session.
- Entry at "1H Kijun" and deep into "15m FVG" , aligning with pre-triangle accumulation.
- Structure is "hyper discretionary" but leans into my bullish bias.
- "Max pain: 2%" , treating this as a CPI momentum trade.
- If price respects the level, expecting an upside expansion. If not, I eat the loss.
NASDAQ repeating the 2021 and 2019 rallies.Nasdaq (NDX) is about to complete a Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern. The whole sequence since the August 22 2024 High appears to be very similar with the price action that preceded the 2021 and 2019 C&H patterns.
As you can see, both of those pattern had an identical trend towards them and equally rally after them, which targeted the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
If the current C&H is completed on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), it is reasonable to expect to continue to repeat those past patterns. As long as the 20600 Low doesn't break, we expect a June rally to 24650 at least.
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NASDAQ SHORTConsidering Friday's PA where there was a liquidity grab,there is high resistance liquidity on the buyside. Formation of a one candle CISD further confirms that we might be bearish for a couple of days.
We will delve into the smaller timeframe (4H & 1H) to have our entry position and our targets will be at 20860 and 20670
Falling towards pullback support?NAS100 is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 21,526.66
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 21,287.96
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 21,910.11
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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NASDAQ 1D MA100 held. Strong rally ahead.Last week we took a look at Nasdaq's (NDX) Triangle and the buy signal that emerged on the short-term Support Zone (see chart below):
The signal turned out to be successful and the price eventually hit our 21800 Target and got rejected again on the Lower Highs trend-line.
Today an even stronger buy signal emerged, this time on a long term horizon as not only did the price touch the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the August 2024 Channel Up but also hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
This is the 3rd test of this level in 2 weeks and the 3rd hold. Technically this is a Triple Bottom formation and one of the strongest buy signals. Two times already within this Channel Up we have seen Bullish Legs of +15.70%. As a result we can technically target 23700.
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US100 Trade LogUS100 setup: Long position with "1:4 RRR" and "0.5% risk" based on accumulation and gap fill breakout.
- Entry within the "1H FVG" , targeting a push towards the "daily Kijun" .
- Structure confirms a potential continuation move, though risk remains controlled.
- Powell’s recent remarks and market liquidity shifts may fuel volatility.
- Stops placed below the accumulation zone; aiming for an extended move if momentum holds.
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, Sentimental Outlook:
The (US100 / US Tech / NASDAQ) market is expected to move in a bullish direction, driven by several key factors.
🟡Macroeconomic Factors:
Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve's dovish stance on interest rates is expected to support the US stock market.
Economic Growth: The US economy is expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace, supporting the stock market.
Inflation: Low inflation levels are expected to support the stock market, as they allow for accommodative monetary policy.
🟢Fundamental Factors:
Earnings Growth: Strong earnings growth from major tech companies, such as Apple and Microsoft, is expected to support the NASDAQ100.
Valuations: The NASDAQ100 is trading at a relatively high valuation, but strong earnings growth and low interest rates are expected to support the index.
Sector Rotation: The rotation into growth sectors, such as tech and healthcare, is expected to support the NASDAQ100.
🔵Trader/Market Sentimental Analysis:
Trader Sentiment: The CoT report shows that speculative traders are net long the NASDAQ100, indicating a bullish sentiment.
Market Sentiment: The market sentiment is bullish, with many analysts expecting the NASDAQ100 to continue its uptrend.
Technical Analysis: The technical analysis shows that the NASDAQ100 is in an uptrend, with a bullish breakout above the 13,000 level.
🟣Sentimental Outlook:
Bullish Sentiment: 65%
Bearish Sentiment: 20%
Neutral Sentiment: 15%
🟤Trader and Market Sentiment:
- 55% of institutional traders are long on the NASDAQ 100 index, indicating a bullish sentiment.
- Retail traders are also optimistic, with 60% of traders holding a long position on the index.
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US100 Trade LogUS100 analysis: Three "buy zones" identified for potential entries with distinct risk levels.
1. "Zone 1" : Near the "4H Kijun" and prior weak high, aiming for short-term rebound with controlled risk.
2. "Zone 2" : Aligns with deeper "4H FVG" support. This setup offers a higher conviction for a reversal targeting the mid-range.
3. "Zone 3" : Major buy zone with strong confluence at the "PML" and "1H FVG" . Willing to risk 2% for a potential return of up to 10%, depending on upcoming earnings.
Each zone represents escalating risk-reward setups, ensuring precise risk management across macro support structures. Consider macro headwinds and earnings season's volatility.
NASDAQ Triple buy signal.Nasdaq (NDX) is having a very aggressive correction early into the week, mostly due to Chinese start-up DeepSeek. Fundamentals aside, this move has taken the index back to its 1-month Support Zone, which has given an excellent buy entry 3 times already.
At the same time, it has come the closest to the Higher Lows trend-line that has been in effect since October 01 2024, while the 4H RSI entered its oversold (<30.00) Support Zone, which in the past 3 months has offered the 5 most optimal buy opportunities.
This is in our opinion a Triple Buy Signal on the short-term, which should test at least the Lower Highs trend-line at 21800, before patterns on the wider, longer term time-frames take over.
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