Nasdaq 100- Strong reversal can lead to continuationFor more than a year now(since Sept 2020), Nas100 is trading inside an ascending channel, and dips around support of this channel were constantly bought.
The correction of this trend, started last week, looks over and we have a very strong bullish engulfing candle on our daily chart.
This candle can lead to continuation to the upside and a new ATH could be reached.
The upper boundary of the channel can provide resistance and exit point for short to medium-term traders and only price under 15.500 would be bearish for US100.
Buy dips is my strategy for this index
Nasdaqsignals
NASDAQ may break even higher than its Channel UpAs mentioned on my previous analysis, the Lower High divergence on the 1D RSI was the signal that Nasdaq would pull-back. The small technical correction eventually ended at around -7% from the top, exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As I've mentioned before, this is generally considered a solid first buy entry.
The current chart shows that after a similar correction (8 to 8.50% roughly), NDX always starts a 2 month rise towards the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. The point of bullish break-out is typically when the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, which is currently close to happening. Previously that has coincided with the break above the internal Lower Highs trend-line.
The 1.786 Fib extension is currently a little over 17700. If that takes place within the next 2 months, we may see the dominant 9-month Channel Up break upwards and transcend into the Diverging Channel Up displayed in orange. Regardless of that, our next two long-term targets are 17000 and 17600.
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Nasdaq- No Christmas rally this year?After reaching a new all-time high at 16700, Nasdaq fell 1000 points pretty quickly, just to find support in the old ATH's zone.
From here, bulls took control and elevated the price again.
At this moment Nas100 is trading in a strong resistance zone and a new leg down could follow from here.
On the other hand, a break above this resistance could mean further gains for the index and, indeed, a nice Christmas for bulls with a new ATH
Nas100 Weekly Breakdown: Reading charts like a pro📈📉Hello friends,
Today I have decided to share with you what I look for in the market and what helps me to predict market movements. In this idea, I have used Nas100 as an example. I am sharing this for educational purposes and also to shed light on the current market structures as well as future movement of Nas100. Some of you might find this beneficial and others won't. It doesn't really matters. Hahahaha.
First of all, we see that Nas100 printed a head and shoulders pattern the past weeks. What exactly is a head and shoulders pattern? According to Wikipedia: "Head and Shoulders formations consist of a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder and a line drawn as the neckline. The left shoulder is formed at the end of an extensive move during which volume is noticeably high. After the peak of the left shoulder is formed, there is a subsequent reaction and prices slide down somewhat, generally occurring on low volume. The prices rally up to form the head with normal or heavy volume and subsequent reaction downward is accompanied with lesser volume. The right shoulder is formed when prices move up again but remain below the central peak called the Head and fall down nearly equal to the first valley between the left shoulder and the head or at least below the peak of the left shoulder. Volume is lesser in the right shoulder formation compared to the left shoulder and the head formation. A neckline can be drawn across the bottoms of the left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder. When prices break through this neckline and keep on falling after forming the right shoulder, it is the ultimate confirmation of the completion of the Head and Shoulders Top formation. It is quite possible that prices pull back to touch the neckline before continuing their declining trend." That make sense doesn't it?
For a head shoulders pattern to be completed, it should have a left peak (shoulder), top peak (head), right peak (shoulder) and a neckline. A neckline needs to be broken (sometimes retested) to validate the pattern and to ensure that the next impulsive move is likely to occur.
Let's look at the psychological human behavior behind the head and shoulders pattern (in this scenario, I will use the head and shoulders top like the one we currently see on Nas100). This will also help us to understand if this is a real head and shoulders or fake one (there can be fake ones that can give wrong signals, hahahaha). This will also help us to understand what really is in the in mind of traders both institutional traders and retail traders.
Please pay attention to my two arrows label X and Y.
X- Price rallied high and it did so strongly (the market moved very rapidly without resting and for sure people that bought during that time had big fat smiles😁). Now that is what we call an Impulsive Wave. Price pushed up, and from the neckline price began to take a break from a long run and it printed the Left Shoulder which can also be said as the higher high. Again, price pushed up and formed the head which can also be said as another higher high, this peak is higher than the previous high. Oops, that is the last time we saw buyers flexing their muscles. Sellers stepped in, pushing price to the neckline and from there buyers weren't strong enough to push price back to where they were brought from (head), instead sellers kept price at the same level as the left shoulder, which sponsored a strong reaction that violated the neckline and that became bears victory (a break of the neckline).
What is next for us? Since the neckline has been broken, how far should the fall be? Now here is where we get different answers. Some would tell you, first impulsive wave I labelled X is a shadow of what is to come, meaning what we should expect is the same impulsive wave to be printed at point Y, same length as X. It can make sense to some but it won't be to others. Here is a thing, whatever makes money for you is all what matters. What other people think is basically none of my business (sorry)😁, As long as the money is made. Right?
Yes!
We do not want to blindly follow what is in the books, what is taught and what is on the internet. We need to develop the mind of understanding and interpreting the current price action in the market. If we can do so on our own, that is maturity. Look at the market like you would look at a friend, you would understand and interpret your friend's feelings and emotions, when he is sad and when he is happy. The market, this thing called the financial market is dramatic, but if we only sit and try our best to understand and of course interpret the current mood in the market we can reap some measure of success.
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Wishing everyone the best this week.
Forexintelligence
NASDAQ resisting the selling pressure. Well supported for now.This is an update on my previous Nasdaq analysis where I called for potential further rise within a narrower Channel Up at the top of the longer-term Channel before a new technical correction comes:
So far this view has been confirmed as the Support of the previous Low (bold black line) is holding. See the similarities between now and the mid July - August Channel Up. The RSI sequences are almost the same following an identical RSI bearish divergence on Lower Highs. That should ultimately lead to a blow-off top around 17000.
If the small Channel Up breaks downwards and cracks the previous Low, I expect NDX to seek the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and if that doesn't hold either, possibly make a Low on the bottom of the 9-month Channel Up or even the Diverging Higher Lows trend-line.
Trade accordingly and with caution as Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report is very likely to shape the fundamental landscape of this month with regards to the Fed's taper program.
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Nas100 might rise to 16400 to complete the wedgeWe should expect further consolidations between 16000 and 16400 to complete the broadening wedge. There's high possibility that Nas100 will rise to complete the broadening wedge formation to the top side. A break above the wedge will attract more buying pressure and send price higher to 17000.00 and on the other hand, failure for bulls to break above the wedge, will attract more selling pressure and Nas100 will remain vulnerable to more weaknesses.
We should continue to monitor price and further developments while being vigilant with our positioning, following a very good trading plan.
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Nas100 will continue to rise after a retest of the necklineFriends, if you are enjoying my ideas please show your support with likes and do not forget to follow so you stay updated with new ideas.
Congratulations to everyone that followed the previous predictions and followed Nas100 from the bottom. As stated in my previous analyses, Nas100 formed a double bottom which the Neckline got violated to the top. We can expect price to retrace a bit down to retest the neckline before continuing higher. I expect price to react at the previous high before extending towards 17000.00.
Do also make sure to check out some of my previous ideas by following the links below.
Enjoy
Nas100 update: buy at the break of the necklineThe light is getting clearer, my bias still bullish for Nas100 for the fact that the November 2021 low wasn't breached by bears and this shows that their strength is getting diminished. Looking at current price action, we also see a possibility of a double bottom formation. If the neckline is violated, Nas100 will find its bottom at around 16110.00. For this setup to be more valid, the neckline must be violated to the top.
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Please consider checking my other ideas. follow the links below to see these previous ideas.
Trade smart!
Do not miss this Nas100 buy opportunity Congratulations to everyone that followed my previous sell idea. We saw a very strong drop on Nas100 the past 2 days, dropping with at least 3.80%. Looking at the technically aspect and market structure, we see that Nas100 has printed highs and lows which these Structures still holds. I expect bulls to push price above the November 2021 high and there I expect price to find support. A rise above 16400.00 will attract more buyers and price will be send higher targeting 17000 as the new high. Bears will have a struggle to fully violate the November 2021 high and the low.
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NASDAQ The level that has to holdNasdaq is ahead of critical crossroads as the Lower Highs on the RSI on the 1D time-frames show a bearish divergence against the Higher Highs of the actual price.
When the 1D RSI formed this sequence in the past, the index dropped at least -8% but only if the previous Low broke (black support). In mid July the Low held and Nasdaq continued on a small Channel Up towards one last Higher High before eventually correcting -8%.
As a result, I expect a Higher High as long as the previous low holds. If broken then a bottom on the Diverging Higher Lows trend-line is possible. In either case the next bullish target is 17000.
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After consolidation, Nas100 will be ready to rise for 4000 pointAfter consolidation, Nas100 will be ready to rise for 4000 points.
🔍 Technical expectations:
🔹Further consolidation have to be expected around the local resistance.
🔹A break above the local resistance will send price higher and bears will likely have less control of the market.
🔹I see nothing that can hold the giant index back to reaching for new highs. It has always been on the rise and this is just a fresh new beginning for Nas100 to climb high seeing that it recently bounced up from the high timeframe support.
❗️Take note: Do not take my idea as a general advice or signal and act upon it without your own analysis. I encourage you to follow me that when I post new updates you get informed of this.
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Many wishes and trade smart!
Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio. Final stage of the BUBBLE?This is a simple yet very interesting chart illustrating the Nasdaq-to-S&P500 ratio since the 1980s.
As you see after a price stabilization in the 1980s, the ratio started to rise but steadily within a Channel Up since 1998. That was when the tech index (Nasdaq) took off fueled by the dot.com mania on a 2 year rally that eventually led to the dot.com crash of 2000.
The ratio has been trading within a similar Channel Up since the 2008/09 subprime mortgage crisis. Currently the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) are converging in a squeeze evetn that was seen in the 1990s Channel Up at the end of it, when NDX's parabolic rally started.
Does that mean that we are about to enter the final 2 year stage of the Bubble? Share your thoughts in the comments section.
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Nasdaq 100Nasdaq us100 up & down wait for it . Check my analysis hope it will b correct . If u like it . Comment please
NASDAQ vastly overbought on 1DSince my last long-term update on Nasdaq 25 days ago, the price accurately recovered from the September correction, and hit both of our targets:
Currently however the picture from a technical standpoint seems to be reversing again as the index is approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 12 month Channel Up it has been trading on ever since September 2020.
The RSI in particular on the 1D time-frame is largely overbought and just a fraction away from the 80.000 Resistance which was last seen on the September 02 2020 market top. As you see on the chart that caused an immediate flash crash of more than -14%, with the index eventually finding support on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The 1D MA100 has been an accurate buy level within this Channel Up.
A repeat of this -14% correction, depending on where it strikes (I've put it at the top of the Channel Up), could even hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is a level the price hasn't made contact with since April 13 2020! Naturally, the strong medium-term swing buyers are expected to be found first on the 1D MA100 again and the long-term target set on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension around 17700.
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Nas100 a drop to the downside from resistance is imminent A drop to the downside for Nasdaq100 from resistance is imminent
🔍 Technical expectations:
🔹Nas100 has approached the resistance of the rising channel.
🔹We can expect some more consolidation closer to the resistance.
🔹Fake breakout can be expected, but a health correction to the downside is necessary and more imminent, testing the September 2021 high at around 15700.00
🔹We will closely watch future development at 15700 if bulls will be able to protect this level, if that happens then price will continue to print new record highs.
❗️Take note: Do not take my idea as a general advice or signal and act upon it without your own analysis. I encourage you to follow me that when I post new updates you get informed of this.
Please support this idea with a like and feel free to share your thoughts and opinions in the comment section below 👍
Many wishes and trade smart!
Amazing prediction yesterday and Nas100 still to reach 15400What an amazing prediction it was yesterday. Seeing Nas100 respecting the previous analyses is just such a beautiful thing.
Now here is what we can expect: just a slight correction and Nas100 will reach 15400.
🔍What is more?:
🔹I expect some dama at 15400, bears might defend this level and we mustn't be surprised if we see spikes to the bottom at least back to 15200 due to the fact that on 1 hour timeframe there was a divergence on the RSI and Nas100 didn't respect that instead it kept on going it's way up.😂
🔹On the other hand, if bulls successful violate 15400, then Nas100 will continue to lead the way to the top, followed by US30 and S&P 500.
🔹We need to be very cautious engaging with Nas100 today, as there might be anything unexpected in this market.
🤗What do you think? Please comment below🤔
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Expect Nas100 to roar again, next stop 15400A little pull back down is enough for Nas100 to roar again 😂
🔍 My expectations:
🔹A pull back down closer to 15000 psychological level will be enough for bulls to kick in.
🔹Psychological level 15000 and areas surrounding this are historical levels, looking back to August 2021, September 2021 and October 2021 these levels were a battle field for both buyers and sellers, the one that won took the crown.
🔹This time around I expect the bulls to wear this crown if they strongly defend level 15000.
🔹Supporting this idea are my previous analyses. Please follow the link below to view these.
🤗What do you think? Please comment below🤔
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Many wishes!