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Nasdaq Crash Loading - The Black Swan The current state of the NASDAQ indicates an extreme overbought condition, with a rally influenced by speculation surrounding six potential rate cuts in 2024. However, the risk arises from the Federal Reserve's concern about inflation. If the Fed, in response to persistent inflation, opts to raise rates, it could lead to a market decline. Conversely, a decision to cut rates may not be sufficient to buoy the stock market if the number of cuts is lower than expected. Examining current fundamentals, the housing market has stabilized with low prices and mortgage rates. Although there is a rebound, a potential increase in housing speculation and mortgage rates could prompt a reassessment. Improved employee wages contribute to consumer confidence against inflation. President Joe Biden's initiatives, such as pausing student loan payments in November and plans to provide homes for 500,000 Americans, may stimulate housing demand, causing prices to rise. This could prompt a review of interest rates and a tightening of monetary policies. While I maintain a long-term bullish outlook, anticipating a correction of at least 50%, it is prudent to reevaluate macroeconomic indicators at that point to determine whether to take profits or continue holding.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by ttfx098_
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo - The Most Underrated Indicator (e.g. NAS100)Welcome to my first educational post. This is a big one, Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is the most underused, underrated, least understood and yet most powerful trend indicator available to the general public. I'll first briefly describe the 4 components: - Tenkan Sen (turning line): it's like a small period moving average but calculated slightly differently. So if price breaks it, it's a first signal of a trend reversal but always wait for the retest. - Kijun Sen (standard line): it's like a larger period moving average but like the Tenkan it's calculated differently. One interesting note is that when it flatlines it represents the 0.5 fib level of the current range. Together, they are used for crossovers just like classic moving averages. - Kumo (Cloud): which is composed of 2 special moving averages called the Senkou Span A and the Senkou Span B. Generally serves as a support/resistance zone and is also subject to crossovers that can confirm reversals (not signal) since it is too slow to signal them. The thicker the cloud the stronger the trend and vice versa. - Chikou Span (Lagging Span): Mirrors current price action 26 periods in the past. In simple terms, it puts things into perspective and can detect potential blocking points for price. Here is a case study of the NAS100 and monthly Ichimoku: What do we see? (Follow the steps) 1) Price breaking the Tenkan and retesting it twice. This is already a major bearish signal. 2) Following the Tenkan break, price doubled down and broke the Kijun + retested it TWICE! A strong bearish confirmation that the downtrend will continue. 3) The Tenkan/Kijun crossover, this is like a death cross of MAs (look it up). 4) This is a reversal signal. You'll notice how price never touched the cloud again. The monthly Ichimoku really puts things into perspective. It really enables you to see the bigger picture and that it is okay to buy in a bear market. You just have to let it guide you. 5) First confirmation of the reversal: the break of the Tenkan + retest. 6) Second confirmation of the reversal: the break of the Kijun + no retest was even needed. 7) 'Golden cross', the Tenkan/Kijun crossing over which is the third confirmation and that price is simply extremely bullish. 8) The Chikou Span breaking past price. This is similar to price breaking a resistance level, it gives the same kind of signal. This is the final bullish confirmation. This a very summarised explanation of how the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator should be used BUT if you want to learn more about it, I strongly suggest you read the book by Karen Péloille: Trading With Ichimoku, A Practical Guide to Low-Risk Ichimoku Strategies. As always, have a lovely Sunday and happy trading! ;)
FX:NAS100Education
by Lexi_Is_Trading
3
7 Dimension Trade idea For Nasdaq 😇 7 Dimension Analysis Time Frame: H4 1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bullish 🟢 Structure Behavior: Break of Structure (BoS) 🟢 Swing Move: Corrective move, indicating a Point of Interest (POI) for potential reversal. Vigilance is required for a bullish reaction at this level. 🟢 Inducement: Not done yet; waiting for a proper internal bullish BoS. 🟢 Internal Structure: Currently bearish, anticipating a shift with a bullish BoS. 🟢 Decisional Order Block: About to be mitigated. 🟢 Demand Area: Identified via FVG, indicating a discounted area. 🟢 Time Frame Confluence: Daily and H4 2️⃣ Pattern 🟢 CHART PATTERNS: No significant chart patterns observed. 🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS: Various signals: Record Session count, Shrinking long wick, Change in guard with engulfing, Doji, Momentum, Inside bar, and a blended combo suggesting a potential reversal. 3️⃣ Volume 🟢 Fixed Range: Bullish dominance in these areas. 🟢 Volume during Correction: Comparatively less during correction than in impulsive moves. 4️⃣ Momentum RSI 🟢 Zone: Extremely Bearish 🟢 Range Shift: Waiting for a potential shift from bearish to sideways. Two strong bullish divergences indicate weakness in bearish momentum. 🟢 Loud Moves: Conventional RSI theory suggests an extremely oversold market, possibly signaling a reversal. 🟢 Grandfather Father Son Entries: A robust 7-star buy signal. 5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands 🟢 Price is already under the Middle band. 🟢 After a strong expansion, the market is moving into contraction, indicating a potential bullish sideways move. 🟢 Squeeze breakout awaited. 🟢 Walking on the band not yet. 6️⃣ Strength According to ROC 🟢 Values: Nasdaq shows the highest rate of bullish sentiment compared to all other indices. 7️⃣ Sentiment Price action signals a clear long entry, but other dimensions like momentum and volatility tell a different story. Waiting for final volatility and momentum confirmation for a long position. ✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4 ✅ Entry TF Structure: Bullish ☑️ Current Move: Corrective ✔ Support Resistance Base: FVG demand area ☑️ Candles Behavior: Bullish signals intact - RSC, Long wicks, Doji, Inside, Momentum. ☑️ FIB Trigger Event: Occurred ☑️ Trend Line Breakout: Breached but not confirmed. 💡 Decision: It's prudent to wait until the price provides a proper internal structure breakout. Once a bullish BoS is confirmed, consider a buy. I will update entry, take profit, and stop levels when triggered. 🚀 Entry: ✋ Stop Loss: 🎯 Take Profit: 2nd Exit if Internal Structure changes, also Exit 3rd Trendline Breakout, FOMO. 😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 🕛 Expected Duration: SUMMARY: The analysis suggests a potential bullish reversal but advises caution until the price demonstrates a clear internal structure breakout. Various signals indicate a reversal, and a detailed plan will be updated upon market confirmation.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Optimum369
Nasdaq weakness before Christmas?Nasdaq weakness before Christmas? Barely hanging on to gains in a streak lasting ten days, US stocks managed to recover from initial losses and were trading slightly higher on Wednesday. The attempt to secure a tenth consecutive session of gains pushed the Nasdaq 100 to a new record high of 16,830. In December, the Nasdaq has seen an increase of over 5%, and its performance for 2023 stands at 43%, on track for its best year since 2020. These gains can be attributed to expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year. Additionally, positive economic data this week exceeded expectations, with existing home sales unexpectedly rising and CB consumer confidence experiencing its most significant increase since early 2021. The NAS100 Index is currently trading above both the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend. However, it is not far from yesterday’s close which raises caution, as it could suggest either a consolidation phase or a potential reversal. In the short term, there may be some weakness targeting the 16,750 area and 16,400, the latter being the level where consolidation occurred at the beginning of December before the most recent upward movement.
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by BlackBull_Markets
NAS100 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Today is NFP and anything can happen, but according to my analytics that am using, which is universal to everyone, PRICE , PRICE MOVEMENTS , I would like to see a pullback to a Fib level 61.8 which perfectly fit with the previous resistance which is about to turn into Support if the level Holds. If not then I will be buying at the support level, why? Because the Index have 2 weeks in range, no clear move, and will apply the simple approach or rule of thumb which say's "BUY LOW & SELL HIGH", in this in case, according to my understanding when the price is at support, with the right tools one always have a chance to buy.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by juniormoseki1
NAS100USD ShortAccording to the index price movement, there is a formation of a rising flag, which might be a potential reversal hence a bearish momentum. Also, there is a bearish dragonfly doji candle according to the higher timeframes (1D), which might be a potential bearish reversal in the price. My entry point is at 15950 after the price has retested the support zone of the flag. SL at 16200, just above the resistance zone. Take Profit at 15200, with a R: R of 1:3. Note, that risk is only 1% of your account.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by Vapari_Inc
NAS100 MID-WEEK ANALYSIS-24/09/2023NAS100: Exploring Potential Bullish Scenarios Amid Market Shift The market has recently exhibited a notable shift in the NAS100 index, particularly on lower timeframes, which has piqued my interest in exploring potential buy opportunities. Join me in the quest to uncover emerging bullish scenarios for NAS100 and adapt our trading strategies accordingly. Stay tuned for ongoing insights and updates! 📈📊 #NAS100Trading #BullishScenarios #MarketShift SAME BIAS AS US30 AND SPX500
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Dion-FX