NASDAQ Long 2 Possible Scenarios of the next 21 DaysWell a chart says more than 1000 words
Overall trend is bullish, but current predicted crrections(See my previouse Nasdaq trading ideas!) and Gap filling has been ocured successfully. Scenario 1: We keep arriving the bottom of the bear area future zone(red marked Time zone) Powell speaking in Jacksonville, but fundamentals are yellow green. If we break 14488, then it means the market will fill the last possible gap, below 13885, an we certanily will go to around 13200 area(Local area) So watch closely the support reaction.
At this area I expect very hard and bloody fight between the bears and the bulls, as the bullish trend has been started at 11890, and 12885-13200 is the first bullish acumulation zone.So the bulls will efend this area, with everything what it takes to survive. Volume is up, and e have a big ,,K,, sshifting of the MP in this area.
That means we have doubled POC(bullish). In senrio 2 we will see a big drop off the market below the last gap, but very quikly and fast agrressively attak of the bulls, that will reat a big V pattern:this is a good area to buy, uz the risk reward managemnet will be high enough to survive or protet the position.
After that we retrurn the green bullish zone whih I have alulated, an then re again:The red area is a natural defene of the bears, so we will expet that the bears will try to push down the market. It is logial. Any kind of speulation will be just ruining your strategy. And the we will fight higher.
This is normal range as we will enter September!
And this month is just jerk. So a sideway movement and lower volatility is expted, if higher volatility omes in, then I ill ertainly be long, to add my positions, whih I have built at 10490 already.
For daytraders and salpers:Trade in trend diretion as the probabilitiy of winners will be higher.
Good luck Traders!
Nasdaq Composite Index
NASDAQ: Watch out for a correctionNASDAQ is in the final stages of the third Elliott wave which started at 6460 (dark blue). It appears to have already completed four minor waves (green) and is currently in its fifth leg.
Further, if you drill down, you would notice that the fifth green wave has also completed four minute waves (pink) and the fifth pink wave has completed three sub-minute waves (turquoise). I have also shown them below for clarity.
A significant correction is expected to start after the completion of the third dark blue wave (around 7350) which could follow an ABC pattern as shown in the red wave and take NASDAQ down to 6900 level. The fifth dark blue wave will start after this correction which could take NASDAQ up to around 7500.
Note: It is just for my own future reference and is not a trading advice.
NASDAQ going down to 6400 in Wave E of the ABCDE pattern?NASDAQ appears to be moving in an ABCDE corrective pattern. It has completed four legs and is currently going down in the E wave.
Wave E should be made up of an ABC sub-wave. Currently, wave 2 of the wave A is in progress (red wave) which can have another short movement up on Monday to 6950, from where it could go down in the third wave.
Nasdaq (NASX) Monthly Chart AnalysisHi everyone. In my TA I'm considering fib levels, elliot waves, Ichimoku Cloud, RSI, and MACD.
--> I see a 1-5 count on MACD and price action and we are about the end of the wave 5.
--> fib extention shows we have rejected 360% (7.5k) and we see a high+long+red wick that signals reversal soon.
--> fib retracement tells us that the next stop(support) is at 26% fib level, which is at 6.2k.
--> ichimoku: tenkan supports the fib retracement level of 26% as tenkan acts a hard support when a candle closes below kijun.
--> RSI is stretched enough for the month and signals a side way action. it broke a hefty support and i anticipate a retest of it as resistance. this will also form a bearish divergence as price will likely retest resistance.
Overall anticipation of price action is more consolidation/sideway action near extention 360% fib level before any major moves downwards, which is also predictable as a correction is due sooner or later. target of bears would be at 6.2k-5.8k as the safe bets. but a higher risk/reward target would be at fib retracement level of 38% or 5k-5.3k.
imgur.com
MSTX: A Case in Psycological and Financial Pain ToleranceTechnicals imply a sweetheart deal for MSTX bulls to GET OUT @ 10.3-10.4. This chartist implies to just GET OUT. If only I would take my own advice. Literally, I don't even care about a profit anymore as long as my losses are minimized. Anybody else trapped in the 1408-style MASTX? My opinion based on previous trading sessions is B-b-b-bearish, while a hope and a prayer could lead it to formulate this harmonic pattern.
$NASX - Interim Correction; Bulls Eye 5859.51 | #nasdaq $NQSYNOPSIS :
1 - Overall price action suggests an incomplete 5-wave impulse with Elliott Wave alternation rules giving way to a complex Wave-IV consolidation with support expected at 4104.70, compared to a simpler Wave-II which occurred between 04-2010 and 10 2011; A resultant Wave-V completion remains pending
2 - Predictive/Forecasting Model eyes ONE pending targets, namely TG-Hix = 5255.11 and a WL level suggesting high-probability reversal level, namely WL = 5859.51
3 - Interim support corresponds to alignment of both a structural level where Intermediate Wave 4 (circled) defined its residence, as well as a quantitative target generated by the same Predictive/Forecasting Model as that which generated above qualitative levels, TG-Hix and WL
A QUICK NOTE ON RSI:
I often receive comments and suggestions about RSI, pointing to so-called divergences, which are typically referred to as "bullish" or "bearish" divergences - I will be short on this, as I have hammered this topics in public lessons several times over the years, but the author had originally suggested that BEARISH divergences in RSI (RED in the RSI field) are commonly associated with BULLISH trending markets, and not with declining markets, as many junior traders tend to perpetrate the same misstatement from misinformed tutors.
If you need to use RSI for a market expected to rally, look instead for POSITIVE (neither bullish, nor bearish) divergences (GREEN in the RSI field), where the origin of the green line imposes a solid support, which price will seldom transgress (as is consistently shown in this case) - The analogy I teach is that of a "shovel", where the origin of the green line is the handle, and the tip is the shovel, propping price up and above to higher height, in a situation where price carves a HIGHER-low against a LOWER-low in RSI ... If confused, just ask me for more examples, or feel free to post some suggestions here or in another appropriate chart ... Kapish?
The inverse is true, where a NEGATIVE divergence is price, where I use the "hammer" analogy, has the handle defining a level which price will not transgress, where the right-end of the RSI (not shown in this chart, since there is no downtrend defined as of yet) would rise at a HIGHER-high, compared to a LOWER-high in price, thus giving the impression of hammering the price further DOWN.
The ORANGE lines are convergent lines, and they simply have no "telling" as to the direction, strength and extent of subsequent price action.
Hope this helps in your own analyses.
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
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Top of the nasdaq bubble?Entered at $17.7 here, this will be a multi month holding position with little risk.
Stop loss will not be exactly at 16.7, I will watch for other macros such as the upcoming FED rate hike on june 17 (yes again, and probably not raise it lol )
Weekly chart:
Nasdaq 40 year perspective: