DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In RussiaI write this as I listen to Tchaikovsky's Violin Concerto in D Major on the excellent Shen Yun Zuopin platform. It seemed quite fitting for watching the world burn.
When you hear propaganda on English social media on a Saturday night that a group of mercenaries are raiding Moscow to overthrow Putin, you absolutely must take what you are hearing and seeing with an entire box of Maldon.
Before we begin, I will provide you with the DXY Monthly, which shows the topography more clearly than the daily bars I use for the moving graph:
Remember it wasn't even 10 days ago that the US Military was running an exercise in the streets in the United States and the QAnon cultists/CIA campaign were trying to tell people it was because Donald Trump was about to overthrow Joe Biden.
The United States has three significant abilities that exceed its direct military power and are why it's able to empire around the world:
1. Masters of propaganda and manipulation
2. A stranglehold on the world economy via the Petrodollar and its oil/LNG production
3. Intelligence, subversion, corruption, and cyber warfare operations
No matter what you hear, the war in Ukraine directly involves NATO because NATO member countries are all over the area West of Russia and Belarus, and Washington is the leader of NATO.
Wagner PMC and Prigozhin himself are rather savvy propagandists and tacticians. They previously used the narrative that there was much discontent between themselves, the superheroes of the Bakhmut campaign, and the Russian military's old guard, to bait Ukraine into attacking.
The end result was a lot of dead UAF and a captured city for the Russian Federation.
Moreover, many things right now serve as a distraction to keep the world's eyes and ears away from what's going on inside of mainland China and the coming fall of the Chinese Communist Party.
Perhaps Xi Jinping will be this decade's Mikhail Gorbachev and will one night dump the CCP, much to the consternation and dismay of a totally clueless majority mankind.
This matter, and the persecution against the 100 million practitioners of Falun Gong by the former Jiang Zemin regime, which Xi has directly contested since he took power a decade ago (this is what the "Anti-corruption campaign" is really annihilating), is what you really need to focus on, rather than "World War III" propaganda.
So, you shouldn't go too hard on Sunday and Monday selling equity futures and getting long on gold because you've been told on Twitter that World War III is coming.
What you want to do is take a calm and rational look at what can happen. And what can happen entirely revolves around the US Dollar.
Right now, the USD looks as if it will pump, rather than dump.
Like it or not, it looks like it's going to pump, rather than dump.
But the confirmation for the trade comes down to whether or not DXY can breach $105.883.
If it can breach $105.883 either in the remaining six trading days of June or in the early portion of July, then we have two scenarios, in my opinion:
Whether the target is only the $108-$109 Point of Concern
Whether the target is $115-$118-$120 above the '22 high.
Frankly speaking, if you look at yearly bars for the DXY:
Then literally $135 is en route before 2030.
But if $109 is all we have today then $98 is incoming.
Generally speaking, it's really worth remembering that USD up = risk off on equities.
What's important in life isn't making money in the markets, but it's your family, your friends, your heart, your soul, and your future.
Trading should just be a vector for your personal and spiritual development.
Gamblers are going to lose more than their shirts, you hear?
See the additional calls below for more broad spectrum macro analysis of the situation.
