Natgas
NATGAS Breakout, Testing ResistanceNatGas is up +7% this morning as price has breached local resistance near $2.90 and testing long-term resistance near $3. Should price beat the $3 level the next move will likely be up toward the 200-day moving average which rests near $3.40.
The PPO is reading short-term bullish momentum with the green PPO line crossing up through the purple signal line after both lines held above the 0 level on a recent pullback. Both lines trending above the 0 level indicates intermediate to long-term bullish momentum.
The TDI indicator shows the green RSI line trending above the upper Bollinger Band and rising above the 60 level which both indicate short-term bullish trend. Generally, you want to remain long when the RSI line is outside of the upper band, and when the RSI is rising or trending above the 60 level. Overall action in the RSI has been trending between the 40-80 levels since May which is a sign of intermediate to long-term bullish price trend.
Overall view on NatGas price is bullish with more gains expected as we head into fall/winter when demand tends to increase.
XOM Exxon - Spring Coiled Or Hanging By A Thread?Every time the price of oil goes up, there's a group of bulls that are sure they're catching the train to $150. I mean, I do think oil will go to $150, and there has to be a bottom that comes first, so there's that.
But with fossil fuels and energy producers it seems the pumps are rare, the consolidations are frequent, and the dumps are more common.
In two recent calls, I suggest that oil may actually be on its way to a 3-handle
Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins
This particular thesis is at something of its inflection point. All the way to $85 would not be surprising, nor would it invalidate the short trade. But here we chop in the $80s.
For Natgas, in a recent call, I suggest that price needs to raid $1.6~ before the rocket mission to $10 can commence
NatGas - No Moon Until Doom
Natty has rallied fairly meaningfully in the last few days, and it may even actually finally punch out $3. But if it can't continue from there, the idea may still be correct.
A big tell that something isn't right in the bull thesis for Exxon is that after the highs were swept in April at $119~, everyone long over $111 has remained trapped ever since, with price not following oil's recent $20 rally.
Now for Exxon, something that's really notable is that the CEO recently bought himself some 650,000 shares for $69 million. This makes many people believe that new highs simply have to be coming.
When we look at monthly candles, we can see we're "flagging" above the old All Time High, there's no indication that it's a reversal, and yet, for three months, there is no reversal.
On the weekly, last week's price action gave the appearance that it's finally time, but it may have just been a stop sweep over the range high.
It's notable oil is pumping, but Exxon is not, despite its stellar earnings report.
An important thing to note about Exxon is next dividends ex-date is August 15 and the payout is 91 cents a share. The CEO will pick up some $591,000+ in cold cash mitigating his position.
It's also worth noting that when it comes to insider buys, they aren't necessarily indicative that price is going to go up before it goes down.
The man may have understood he could make more than the 5% he can earn in the money market by buying Exxon and loaning the shares out to short sellers, combined with dividend payments, over the next year, for example.
The most rational place for Exxon to correct to, if it were to correct, is the $68 level.
There are a lot of geopolitical risks right now with China, the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, and the CCP and the Jiang Zemin faction's 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong.
This is really the biggest piece of the puzzle that you need to educate yourself with, but establishment media doesn't talk about it.
All of this directly impacts the oil market. And the War in Ukraine impacts the oil market, because if the War is called off then Russian oil is going to flow worldwide again and amount to a big time supply increase.
Things can change any time.
#NatGas UpdateThis week, natural gas performed nearly perfectly. The wave count remains unchanged. Although I am still unsure about the ultimate shape of wave b, the scenario allows me to open cautious shorts. Of course, this is not advice. I look forward to the structure shaping the bottom and entering long positions into the winter.
Antero Attempting Rectangle BreakoutAntero Midstream is working on its 4th weekly close above the upper line of a rectangle pattern. Price is trading above all of its MAs with all MAs in bullish order indicating a bullish trend for price.
The PPO indicator shows the green PPO line rising above the purple signal line which indicates bullish momentum in the short-term. Both lines trending above the 0 level indicates bullish momentum on an intermediate to long-term basis.
The TDI indicator shows the green RSI line trending above the 60 level which indicates a short-term bullish price trend. Going forward we want to see the RSI remain above 60 to sustain this potential breakout above the upper line of the rectangle pattern.
Assuming that natural gas and oil have bottomed and continue to move higher AM should benefit from the rising trend.
E-cutieAll year EQT, an unloved natural gas producer has been a swing trader's paradise. I've harvested so many gains from these E-cutie trees I thought I'd make a thread just for it and post trading updates.
The macro technical picture is clear. Years of being battered by shorts ended with capitulation in 2020, followed by a swift rebound. Fundamentals are tightening. According to analysts, $25 is fair price for $2.50 NG price. Goldman Sachs has a $23ish target. Price action is showing signs of bottoming. It's lining up but this is much more profitable short term swings.
Currently, price is building a base at previous long term support around $18. More downside is certainly a possibility given that NG prices look overvalued. But, EQT is in a channel and fundamentally undervalued. Investors might front run this sector as demand picks up in later in the year, in which EQT will likely be closer to $25.
s3.tradingview.com
Long EQT
+200 @ 18.10
NatGas: Take-off 🛫The price of NatGas has gained significantly again since Friday and could thereby move further away from the support at $2.48. Thus, we assume that it has already left the white wave (2) and is ready for high flights. For the white wave (3), it must rise significantly above the resistance at $2.75. After the completion of this wave, we expect a small correction and then another significant rise in the form of the white wave 5. Hence, we see a lot of movement on the upside at the moment. However, it should be noted that there is still an alternative scenario with a probability of 28%, which occurs if the price now falls contrary to our expectations. Then it would first have to fall below the support at $2.48.
NATGAS Analysis 30July2023This analysis is still with the old analysis. Still in a positive condition bullish. After the price forms a choch structure and corrected, the price is stuck in the Fibo Retracement area 0.382 and is likely to continue bullish up to the right level of Fibo 1,618 in contact with the highest price in March.
#NatGas Update #OOTTThe chart is non-tradable (though I did enter some cheeky shorts). Natgas is tracing out something really intricate, as is its typical behaviour.
I suspect (and this is only specualation at this point) that the market is undergoing a compex [ w] [ x] [ y] correction as wave b where [ x] is a flat with an expanding diagonal in wave (C).
Then there has to be either another flat or a triangle in wave [ Y] to complete wave b and proceed to a simple impulse c.
That is extremely speculative at this moment, and hence not tradable from an ElliottWave perspective.
The key points are
- I believe the correction within the correction has not yet been completed.
- Once wave b is completed, there may be a nice quick short setup followed by medium-term long opportunity
This is not advise.
NATURAL GAS Buy lower, sell the break-outLast time we looked into Natural Gas (NG) we called for a buy entry (see chart below) right after the contact at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone:
The 2.550 target has been hit but the rise didn't stop there, breaking even above the former 2.690 Resistance and making a Higher High in the process. The price is right now above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but in terms of Risk/ Reward neither a favorable buy or a sell. We are willing to buy at 2.400 with a tight stop just below the Megaphone's Higher Lows trend-line and target 2.800 (below Resistance 1). If a 1D candle closes below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the pattern, we will sell and target the 1.950 Support.
The 1D RSI is trading inside a Channel Up pattern. If broken, it will be a first confirmation of a bearish break-out signal.
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#NatGas UpdateIf I elaborate on my earlier scenario with unfinished correction, Natgas might perform a spectacular drop over the next few days before resuming the uptrend.
Before this, I expected a triangle, then a flat with an ending diagonal and now a classic expanded flat in wave b. Since wave a was a contracting diagonal, there is an 80% chance that wave c is a quick impulse down and a 20% chance of expanding diagonal.