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Natgas

Natural Gas: Commodity DivergencesThe correlation between DBC (orange line) and Nat Gas is strong. However, Nat Gas gas does have price history where it diverges, leads & lags the average DBC price action. The white arrows on the screen display the periods where Nat Gas And DBC (in orange) diverge. Some of the divergences have lead to steep pops & drops of mean reversion. What were seeing now is a massive divergence of about -33%, Nat gas has crashed and is the number one underperforming commodity in this basket. Nat gas has retraced back to the Pre Covid low levels. Looking at the DBC ETF its about 33% off the Pre Covid Lows. Over history the correlation usually tightens up and it has a long way to go to close the gap divergence. This presents one of 3 scenarios.. 1. Other commodities in the basket collapse 2. Natural Gas Rallies 3. Both options (Our Base Case)
NLong
by Trading-Capital
Natural Gas and the Dangers of Swing Trading Leveraged ETFsThinking that the war in Ukraine would cause the price of natural gas to surge higher over the winter, many traders got stuck on the wrong side of a trade. Natural gas futures have plunged more than 90% over the winter. In this video, I explain that regression analysis was warning that a significant price decline was imminent in late 2022, and I explain that it is now suggesting that a bounce in natural gas prices may soon occur. This video also explains the pitfalls that many novice traders experience when trying to swing trading leveraged ETFs that employ derivatives and which undergo volatility drag over time. Here is the link to the risk-reward / win-ratio spreadsheet that is referenced in the video. docs.google.com Shared with permission from @HeWhoMustNotBeNamed Note for stats nerds: The log-linear regression channel indicator does not give negative numbers for the Pearson correlation coefficient (r). The indicator gives the absolute value of the Pearson correlation coefficient |r|. So if the correlation is strongly negative or strongly positive, it will appear near 1 in both cases. Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
AMEX:BOIL
by SpyMasterTrades
54
Mar 27,23-NG-Price ain't going up!SO - from my last post, thinking price would rally even 500 points failed to occur. Sucks but that's the world we live in currently. Even with the contract rolling over there is no chance of a rally. The IEA says inventories are 22% above the 5 year average - this combined with winter being over in the U.S. means no demand for NG. So, I am sitting on the sidelines, waiting. Price may go well below 2 this week, maybe 1.7.....maybe even 1.5 - who knows. Anyway, I'll be looking at other trades - maybe oil, and the S & P 500 to make some money. Take care and stay safe. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by HEIKOTradingSystem
6
NATURAL GAS Confirmed our long-term view, now turning sideways.Those who follow us for long, know that we tend to utilize long-term patterns, especially cyclical pattern that give a high probability of return as they filter out the day-to-day noise from the news. Natural Gas (NG1!) is no exception and our multi-year Cycles analysis last January proves that: As the price continued to free-fall, we now find it useful to better explain the situation to you, to turn back to the 1D time-frame and compare the 2022/23 Cycle to 2014/15. As you see the correlation is fairly high. Both started on a 1D Death Cross, with the 1D RSI deeply overbought. As the price never broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since December 20 2022, it appears that we are in a similar level as February 2015 when after a test of the first Support Zone (green), the price rebounded, got rejected on the 1D MA50 and then turned sideways to break it. It stayed neutral for basically 6 months before starting a new multi-month round of heavy selling. The signal to sell it again was when the price was at its closest to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The downside potential is significant and goes lower than the previous Low of 1.450, which is our long-term target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:NG1!
by TradingShot
1
Natural Gas - Bigger correction in this area?Hello traders, Today we will do an analysis for NATGAS. This commodity is in a big downtrend on the daily and weekly timeframe that started in August 2022. For now the higher probability move is a bigger correction in this area. On the 4h timeframe we expect the price to move to the upside and break the previous local high that it made on the 3rd of March. Once it reaches the area of the magenta rectangle marked on the chart we must see if we will have a continuation to the downside or it will continue making a bigger correction (upside). Another possible scenario is a move to the downside that coincides with the 70,5% Fibonacci retracement and then a move to the upside to break the local high. Please don't jump in, wait for your setups, no matter what, and don't risk more than 1% of your capital.
NLong
by financialflagship
UNG - Natural Gas ETF - Potential Double Bottom Support PlayUNG (US Natural Gas ETF) has formed a double-bottom price pattern on the Daily chart. The Price has found temporary support above $8.21. Support Price Targets are: $8.21, $8.16, $7.72, $6.11. Resistance Price Targets are: $8.99, $9.93, $10.97, $11.97. UNG etf does not always correlate & follow technical analysis charts. Be aware of global fundamental news changes regarding energy assets (government policies, corporate policies, supply & demand, etc).
AMEX:UNG
by NoFomoCharts
Mar 18,23-NG-Turnaround this week? YES!As we know, NG has stayed down and storage is at an all time high - U.K. NG is at an 18 month low. Weather has been exceptionally warm in the U.S. the last 8 weeks, hence the huge amount in storage. My thinking is the following: There is a quick cold snap this week where it will start to warm up again on Fri,,, It's almost the end of this contract...most of the time, price moves up as contract end nears - not always, but a lot of the time. Where is the bottom? I believe in and around 2 is the bottom. It's going to be hard for price to STAY below 2 for long. Sure, it might dip down to 1.5 for a day or two, then right back up again around 2. Therefore, I am choosing 2 or maybe 1.9 or 1.8 as a good spot to go long - even if it's just until friday this week, then get out. Hopefully price goes up to 2.5 and I take my 500 or so points profit and run. I might be wrong, but that's how I'm going to play this week. I will be watching price action closely Sun night as NG comes online. If price is flat or turns negative slightly, I will lower my entry price to 1.9 or 1.8. Stay tuned this week for more posts. Stay safe and trade smart. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
18
Natural Gas Full Bear Control. Short term 15m EMA 12 Guide- NG UNG is on a downtrend in every time frame, bears are in full control. - Bulls would hope we hold the 52 week low - need an hourly trend change back to the bulls for we to potentially get a 4h and daily bounce going and shape up an Equilibrium pattern. - short term intra-day 15m 12 EMA is our guide for full bear control. - I definitely wouldn't be shorting all the way down here but also there's no signs for me to be interested long as well atm unless bulls can start to shape up some hourly trend change.
AMEX:UNG
by ArcadiaTrading