$UNG to sub $2? I know this would be a crazy move and I have no clue what would cause it, but the chart says that this is a possibility.
As you can see, the chart has formed a H&S pattern and is breaking down. If you take the length of the pattern and extend it down past the breakdown, you get a price target of sub $2. Maybe this is a move that plays out like oil did in 2020?
Natgas
$NG $UNG $BOIL Where Price would be for the Next couple weeks- UNG NG BOIL have retraced over 50% fib of the A to B move from the bottom, that's a clear sign that we will likely get an equilibrium base on how significant these swings are.
- NG has a tendency to break a resistance and have no follow through vice versa breaking a support and have no follow through so im looking for a equilibrium tightening up price action the next couple weeks.
- Short term bears still in full control
Mar 9,22-NG-Pullback is here-TurnaroundAs I said in my last post, price dropped this week. Question is, with the jobs report tomorrow, will price plummet? Or Rebound?
THis is the question I am battling with. I will be watching closely and if price continues to fall overnight and into the moments leading up to the report, I might put in a Buy ORder in case price sky rockets.
We shall see. As for next week, will price go back up to 3ish? Or will price just go sideways for a while. Hard to say, especially because there appears to be no end in sight for the War.
Stay tuned.
Heiko
Pullback to 2.582 before another bull runNG likely to pullback to this support area highlighted at 2.582 before pushing off to another bull run. This area was previously the area of consolidation as well. This pullback seems to be short term corrective.
NATGAS Long- Used SFP & Breaker Order Block, with confluence SFP at the Monday low on 12H, 4H, and 1H
- MSB to the upside on the 30m buying retest of Breaker Order Block
- TP1 will be Monday's high, will reassess there but there's a possibility of filling the gap at ~2.93 and could hit 1D FVG at ~3.05
USOIL stuck between $70 and $82A month ago, we noted that USOIL would likely stay stuck within the wide range between $70 and $82. We outlined several developments that pointed to a neutral trend and said that even if the price fell below $70, we would expect it to be shortlived due to the U.S. administration seeking to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) near that price tag. A week later, the U.S. announced it would release 26 million barrels of crude oil into the market (in line with its mandate). However, based on the publicly available data, the Strategic Petroleum Reserves have remained unchanged since the start of 2023, at 371.58 million barrels. That indicates U.S. officials are waiting for a higher oil price at which they could unload their reserves at a profit. With the price of USOIL approaching $80 per barrel, this event might not be that far away. Our view has not changed; we still expect the oil price to stay choppy within the wide range for an unforeseeable future.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL within the wide range and two simple moving averages. Previously, we said that the flattening of these moving averages indicated a neutral trend.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Mar 5,23-NG-is this the pullback?Last week NG went up a hell of a lot...are we ready for a pullback now? We shall see how this week plays out. Should be crazy with the Fed raising rates again on Wed.
If this week closes below 2.6, maybe NG will fall back to 2 next week.
If price action falls anywhere close to 2 THIS week, I will put in a buy order for price to return to the 3 zone.
Heiko
Natural Gas $NG $UNG $BOIL Tips for Riding your Profit- 4H 12EMALast weeks NG video i mentioned that this is likely a climax bottom and we are heading higher with potential inverse H&S pattern, it ended up playing out in the hourly time frame and bulls were a lot stronger than i expected.
- Looking at the 4h time frame 12 EMA as full bull control support if we don't lose it then we wont be getting 4h and daily consolidation yet.
- im still holding my $BOIL position (it 2x leverage of UNG) its a small position so i'm letting it ride at least 20~30% of course ill still be watching how we consolidate on 4h and daily time frame will tell me a lot if the bull move will continue.
Feb 28,22 - Closing Order with 400pt ProfitNice little profit maker there...I'm not sure whats going to happen on Thursday with the storage report, hence I'm taking my profit and running.
Also, this is the 5th day in a row of gains for NG so I'm going to wait for a pullback and get back in. I'm assuming price will drop some as people take profits from this last little bull run.
I'll post by Friday again.
Heiko
Natural Gas gaining momentumThe rally continues, what's next for Natural Gas?
Massive long term reversal signals on watch.
Feb 27,22-NG-Was 2 the bottom?Not sure if 2 was the bottom or not, but there was a support/resistance line around 2.3 so I put a Buy Order in on Fri at 2.350 to see if I can catch 500 points.
So far so good but I might cash out shortly. We shall see.
Question is....WAS 2 the bottom? Or will price just reverse this week and head back down to 2? Regardless, keep an eye on your trades - anything can happen and the recession is still coming(even though it's already here but most people don't want to admit it - AND - their realization hasn't shown yet in the markets).
Trade safe, stay safe.
Heiko
NatGas Cup and Handle in the making?On my first public analysis, I suggested that NatGas would reach its 2.66 resistance before any profit taking that could bring it back to its 2.42 support zone. Now that the first target is reached, and considering the strenght/speed at which it got there, I am leaning to the idea that we'll have a cup and handle and not another reverse H&S forming. Therefore, 2.54 is the new support I check. The 2.66 resistance could even be turned as a resistance without a pullback. If it hold, then 3.01 becomes possible short term. Remember that NatGas is usually bullish from March to May. Considering recent behavior of the price, and despite our overall warm winter, we are now getting ready for summer months.
Natural Gas prints an RSI bullish divergence As you can see in the chart, natural gas had a big downside movement for the last months. Now It looks like the bottom is printed so I will consider entering a long here with targets 3.11$ and 4.69$ .
You can see apart from the Bullish Divergence that It is starting to show a lot of strength, you can observe a gap-up between 2.314$ and 2.415$.
For the buy setup I will enter now and set an stop loss order under the gap. If the position goes well, I will keep locking profits manually trailing the stop under key areas.
Don't forget to share your thoughts on the comments and happy emotionless trading.
💨 $NATGAS UPDATE⤑ NATGAS found strong support around the key support zone as detailed in my previous post (see related idea)
⤑ The strong weekly performance points to a change of behaviour by market participants.
⤑ The change of behaviour does NOT automatically mean that there is a TREND CHANGE. This is only the first step required for a TREND CHANGE to occur.
⤑ At this time, it is the first sign that the "status quo" bear market condition has "stopped" for an unknown period of time. It may be only act as a temporary PAUSE prior to a resumption of the bear market.
⤑ In the immediate term (next couple of weeks), I would expect prices to reverse higher as there is strong upward momentum. Afterwhich the price may drop once more to re-test the support zone. The price action resulting from the re-test (if any) will guide us further to where prices may move in the longer term.
MrStocky
Natural Gas - RSI Low to Price LowThis chart shows the number of weeks between a low on the RSI for #natgas and the low in price. 2019/2020 period is omitted due to the unusual effects of pandemic and lockdowns on markets.
RSI Bottom to Price Bottom
2001 - 13 weeks
2009 - 26 weeks
2012 - 12 weeks
2016 - 13 weeks
Average = 16 weeks
Bottomed In Month
2001 - September
2009 - September
2012 - April
2016 - March
Natural Gas- Killing the BullsFrom our previous post, linked in description, we counted Natgas to be in wave iii of C, keeping extending to the downside as long as retailers bottom fishing in mass. We believe that Natgas will provide a beautiful long opportunity, but only once retailers will be shaken out. Price bounced from our support, but created lower highs in a triangle.
We are sort from @2.628 stop loss @2.7 risk 0.5%. Targeting a lower low in the 2.2-2.3 area.
Best
GMR