Is Exxon Mobil prime for a trend reversal after 280% rally?On 8th November 2022, shares of Exxon Mobil reached a high of 114.66$, marking over a 280% increase since their lows in March 2020. The company has enjoyed this two-year lasting rally thanks to the growing prices of oil, which translated into growing corporate earnings during this period. However, with oil prices peaking in the first half of 2022 and worsening economic conditions around the globe, shares of XOM might be positioning themselves for a trend reversal. In addition to that, the U.S. government seeking to increase taxes on oil producers also does not help the situation. Therefore, we will closely monitor the price action. We want to see the price break below the immediate support/resistance level and a pick-up in volume to support our thesis. With that outlined, we want to set a price target for XOM at 90$ per share.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the weekly chart of XOM. Volume can be seen declining for the past eight months while the price kept rising. That hints at fewer investors willing to buy the stock at elevated levels.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bullish but losing momentum
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of XOM and 200-day SMA.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Natgas
Jan 4,23-NG-Has it finally hit bottom?Happy New Year all - time to make a shitload of money this year!!
ok - post first - NG rose today for the first time in weeks, so NG is settling around the 4 mark. Will it go lower?? Possibly, probably.
Warm weather is in sight with no let up in sight for the next 2 weeks minimum.
I'm not doing anything until the storage report tomorrow - lord knows price could fall down to the 3.6 - 3.8 area by close tomorrow. Will THAT then be the bottom?
Maybe....dunno.
OK - So excited!! SO you might find some posts from me this year on different trades, notably the S n P 500, Wheat, Oil and Gold. (OF course there will still be NG updates)
The reason???? Because we should ALL make a shitload of money this year. I've been talking to a lot of you, and I know there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the recession we are in (going into) and of course the ongoing war. Apart from all the worry though, there is ALWAYS opportunity in chaos. People have been made Millionaires from some smart trades not only in recessions, but in uncertain times. (Which we are definately in).
So trade safe, stay safe and here's to all of us making a lotta money this year! :-)
Heiko
NATURAL GAS🔥 breakoutNG1! broke down out of the raising wedge (yellow) and I expect further downside. It will prolly not be in straight line, pullbacks along the way expected. Actually now we are sitting at the support zone 7.78 - 7.55, so bounce up or sideways before next leg down is possible. Target being the support zone 6.46-5.95 and potentially the lime uptrendline.
Also there is a upward channel (blue) on the log scale:
Will we test the channel lower edge?
Let me know in the comments how much has your gas bill risen if you already pay new price.
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Natural Gas collapsing! Yet another deflationary signNatural gas in the US is collapsing. In part this has to do with LNG exports to the rest of the world being halted due to a fire to one of the export terminals. However in my honest opinion, there is more to it. It probably has to do more with the deflationary forces taking over, as high interest rates, money supply shrinking and inflation being too high, have destroyed demand to a very large extend. At the same time we are seeing progress in the energy space, with more projects and drilling taking place, as the ESG movement is taking a hit. The green movement needs to be sidetracked for a while, as we need cheap energy right now. Otherwise the war in Ukraine won't stop in Ukraine and we are gonna have famine in most of the world.
So where would I be looking to buy natural gas? Or until what level would I be willing to short it? Based on an average I created which includes several futures contracts, I think that closing shorts at around 5$ is a good idea, yet buying a lot of NatGas with significant upside, I'd say start buying between 3-4$.
NATURAL GAS🔥 to $4.6?Please 1st of all click the boost 🚀 button if you want me to post more ideas and follow me to support my work! It's absolutely for free.
Wassup guys?! After my NG short call (two months ago) and reaching it's target I think the drop may not be over yet. I can imagine price is going to test support cluster created by major uptrendline (lime), horizontal support 4.75-5.95, and the yellow trendline. The former support zone 6.46-5.95 now acts as resistance at it seems to me that the upside pullback from the low 4.75 to 7.22 is running out of steam. Closer look (4h)...
...reveals local triangle (yellow) which is just about to break one way or the another. My bet is to the downside breakout.
I wouldn't go long as long as the major downtrendline (red) holds.
Let me know your thoughts in the comment section.
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time to break recordsit looks like natural gas is about to finish and expanded flat correction. the next trend is going to be explosive and break records !!!
Dec 28,22-NG-How low will it go?So NG is tanking hard...question of course is how low will it tank?
I will be watching for a bottom and then put in a Buy Order seeing that it's still winter, price 'should' go up some at least, but you never know. We have had stranger winters where price just keeps coming down.
I'm not sure if we are looking at a time where it will drop all the way back to the 2's range - we shall see.
Happy New Year all.
Heiko
NATGAS Long Update! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
Here is another dimension
To the NG bullish forecast
That I posted last week.
In there we established
That the price is about to retest
The long-term rising support line
From where the rebound is almost
Inevitable. Now, the price has indeed
Almost reached that support and today
We are taking a closer look at the gas chart.
As you can see the rising support is
Confluencing with the horizontal support level
Which reinforces our bullish bias
And we are already seeing a bullish reaction
So I think that we can expect a move higher
And a retest of the local
Horizontal resistance level above
Buy!
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NATURAL GAS BEARISH OUTLOOKThe cold weather in US had done little to support a price rise of the Natural Gas, while the consumption was lower than predicted.
The price of the gas had broken its support at $5.3 and might be heading further down, testing prices of 4.25 in the next couple of days. In the opposite scenario the price might try to reach levels of $6.07
RSI and MACD both are supporting the bearish movement with MACD histogram below 0 line and RSI below the 50 neutral line.
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Natural Gas (NATGASUSD): Time to Grow?! 💨
Natural Gas dropped to a key weekly/daily demand zone one more time.
Chances will be high to see a pullback from that.
A bullish breakout of a falling parallel channel on 1H time frame confirms the strength of bulls.
Goals: 5.6 / 5.8
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Dec 20,22-NG-Did anyone else go long?So there was some consolidating around 5.4 so I put a Buy Order in and so far so good. I'll probably get out of it by close on Friday as Monday temps are back to warmer temps so I don't want to get burned by a huge dip when the markets open again on Sun night.
Did anyone else put their Buy order in? Or am I the only crazy one :-)
Heiko
Is GAS giving us a good entry into buy?The data indicates that gas supplies in the US are beginning to withdraw part of the stock from circulation, therefore, it would mean that Texas could possibly resume its activity.
Technically we are in a good support, which we will try to make purchases, without neglecting the corresponding stops.
Good Trading.
Diego Castro Trader.
Dec 20,22-NG-Go Long at 5.4? or 5?Price is continuing to drop even though the temperature this week across the U.S. especially into Christmas is going to be damn cold!!
So the question is...will price drop all the way down to 5?? or should we get in now at around 5.4?
Both are areas of Support, and this cold is going to send demand through the roof, but when? Will price keep going down until Thurs or Fri this week? Or will price spike up early next week?
All I know is I'm not missing out on this trade....could be a nice 1000 point spike :-)
What are your thoughts?
Heiko
Dec 19,22-NG-Not yet time to go longSO obviously my last call was horrible--I exited my position with a small loss.
The outside of the Linnear Regression Indicator is around the 5 mark so I'm thinking price action might drop to around there.
I will wait for clear signs of a turnaround, then I'll put in my Buy Order. I can't believe the price, I mean this is winter!! Anyway, sometimes there is no logic to trading.
When price gets down there I'll let you know what my plans are. With the holidays also, things are a bit wonky - might not even get a trade in until Jan.
To all, please have a safe and splendid Christmas, Holiday Season and a fantastic New Year!! Have a drink for me :-)
Heiko
NatGas: Don't trip 🚶🏼NatGas is currently facing down and should leave the turquoise target zone to climb below the support line at $4.750 to complete the pink wave iii. Our alternative scenario implies, that the course could rise above the resistance mark at $7.064 instead, if the course would stay above the $5.337-mark. After the completion of the pink iii in our primary scenario, we're expecting the course to rise between $4.750 and $5.337 to finish off the pink wave iv, before dropping back South. The downwards slope should stretch until the turquoise target zone between $3.436 and $1.880 to end the green wave .