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Natgas

Will Exxon march higher or perform a fake out?Since our previous post on Exxon Mobil, it has increased significantly in value against our expectations. Unfortunately, with the upcoming earnings, the stock might get an additional boost in price, which is already hovering near all-time highs. As a result, XOM breaking above $114.66 will force us to abandon our price target on the downside. However, even if a breakout occurs, we will continue to pay close attention to subsequent price action and monitor volume very closely. To support the idea of a fakeout, we would like to see a continual drop in volume accompanying price growth on the daily chart (just like on the monthly chart). As for the outlook beyond the short-term, we remain worried that ranging oil prices between $70 and $85 per barrel will threaten the well-being of this stock title. Furthermore, higher taxes on energy companies, economic slowdown, and oil down more than 35% since its 2022 peak will put pressure on further price increases. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the hourly chart of XOM. The yellow arrow points to a technical glitch at NYSE, which saw multiple stock companies plunge and turn on circuit breakers. We can potentially discard this movement. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the monthly chart of XOM. The red arrow indicates a continual decline in volume, which is a bearish technical development. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows the daily chart of XOM and the updated setup. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NYSE:XOM
by Tradersweekly
45
Jan 24,23-NG-Almost time to go longAs I mentioned in my post, 2 posts ago, I expect price to settle around 3. We had a little spike up in price but then it came right back down and now is under 3.2 So I will be watching closely to get in at 3.2, preferably lower if price goes lower. Every 100 points I will move my Buy Order lower to keep in step with the price lowering. Currently I'm in for a Buy Order at 3.2 Price might not go up too much or at all until next week. Watch out for the weekend Gap Ups or Gap Down from the 'Big Boys'... I expect I my order will get filled before end of day Friday. Take care and stay safe all. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
15
Go Long Crude and Nat GasCrude bounced smartly off of 79.69 twice, with the 2nd test just happening in the Euro session this morning. It has returned to 80.40ish level. This sets up nice for a move back to 81.80 level to try to break the short at the 61.8% line of the recent downtrend. If it can do that, it will open up further moves to the 83-84 area. And, Nat Gas has went down and tested it's low, not breaking it decisevily. This looks like a range. So, I would cover your short nat gas positions and looks to get long on any further strength that this potential 3.10 - 3.60 range presents.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CeresTrader
Crude and Nat Gas Update - Shorts are working but beware!We have been short energy since the gap up on Sunday. Now, it's time to lock profits in, especially in crude oil. The bounce off the lows today coincided with a 50% Long of the upmove, to the tick. That is a warning. Those in shorts above 81.08 might let it ride, as that is the 61.8% retrace. However, given the hit to the tick of the 50% long, we are inclined to lift the short. Nat Gas has continued to work lower, albeit in choppy trade. We have been sellers above 3.50 and think that it can go lower, to that $2.90 mark from here. Lock in gains on any move below $3.00.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CeresTrader
NATURAL GAS Astounding multi-year Cycles showing sell's not overThis is not the first time we look into Natural Gas (NG1!) and its long-term patterns. We have coined its Multi-year Cycles Theory in the past and it is time to extend on it a little on the 1W time-frame. Typically investors ask us for 1D analysis such as the following we published 2 months ago (November 24 2022) and helped us identify the conditions that would fulfil the long-term bearish reversal we expected: As you see NG delivered the expected drop since it closed below its 1W MA100 and even hit and closed below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Based on this multi-decade blueprint, this is a strong bearish continuation signal. As the chart shows, NG technically makes 4 year Cycles (bottom-to-bottom, top-to-top), which failed only one time in 30 years. Based on this, there is still significant time and range for the price to drop. The first stop is the (grey) High Volatility Zone, where the price typically trades for a longer-than-usual period of time. We need to keep an eye on the RSI on the 1M time-frame and its Higher Lows trend-line. If its holds, expect a bounce, in a similar fashion as the Lower Highs from May 2009 to February 2016. If they break, we expect first the 1.600 level to be tested as a Support and potentially under conditions (which we will analyze extensively if this time comes), the prices Lower Lows trend-line. Keep in mind that the RSI is always helpful and in recent months in particular, as its Bearish Divergence on Lower Highs (against the price's Higher Highs) from September 2021 to August 2022 projected the peak. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by TradingShot
4
Jan 21,23-NG-Price will settle around 3As you can see from the chart, somewhere between 2.8 and 3 is where the outside Linear Regression line is and that is where price will probably stabalize for the next while, until some force pushes price up....either weather, the War, Politics or some combination of all 3. Keep a close eye as 3 is a Support level. Weather is supposed to turn colder also, however, storage is pretty full, so I'm guesing until the EIA report shows a significant drop is reserves, or if the cold snap turns into a 4 week cold spell, price won't move too much. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
5
SWN Southwestern Energy. The Best Play on US Natural Gas ExportsI've held this investment for over a year now. Average price is around 5.8. It has not done anything in terms of stock price but the company's financials improved big time and they are bringing in massive free cash flow. In the next couple years they pay down their debt and get a big pop next time Natural Gas has good times. I feel good in it still think it's cheap and that the market just doesn't know it yet. The last year has been a hard times for stocks too. Target for SWN is at least $14
SLong
by inanis_
1
Long Natural Gas based on temperature decrease in USFundamental: 15.01.23 Weather reports point to the possibility of a further drop in gas prices amid forecasts indicating the likelihood of unusually mild temperatures in the United States through mid-January, Gelber's note said. 16.01.23 After consecutive weekly declines at the start of the new year, natural gas futures rebounded on Tuesday amid expectations of more cold spells later this month. The spot price fell about 27.6 cents on Friday after several days of unusually warm weather to start 2023. Production also proved strong and stood at around 101 billion cubic feet per day. It remained near record levels of around 102 billion cubic feet per day. However, natural gas prices are more than 50% lower than they were just a month ago, and for futures contracts to maintain an upward trajectory, cold air needs to arrive soon and other February predictions may need to be made. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's eight-to-14-day forecast calls for below-average temperatures in the western, midwestern and southwestern parts of the lower 48 states. 18.01.23 US gas prices are rising today (knowing that volumes are limited due to MLK Day), while European prices are falling sharply. There are new weather forecasts for the last week of January in the United States. Temperatures are expected to drop significantly across most of the United States, to below average levels. It turns out that February could bring more volatility for natural gas. Seasonality indicates two local troughs (cold winds) - January 21 and February 4. "Looking ahead, it's not out of the question that NYMEX gas futures will return to $5 mmBtu or higher, but it will take a lot of arctic air to dominate the nation for several weeks," adds Gelber's note. "Conversely, if the weather forecast models revert to a longer spell of warmth, this would set the stage for new lows for NYMEX gas futures." Technical: - RSI over 30.0 + Standard deviation increasing (high volatility) - High volume at $3.54 - Support reached
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by thefrenchsniper
1
Jan 15,23-NG-Will it get back down to 3So NG started this week off with a Gap Up, not huge but still up. Question is....will it stay up and gain or is it going to get back to the 3 mark. 3 would put it at the bottom of the Linnear Regression Indicator as you can see on the chart. I'm going to hold off on any trade until I'm sure price action is going to keep going up (as sure as I can be anyway). I'm still thinking price will end this week down, if not to 3 then to 3.2 - then I might consider putting in a Buy Order. Thoughts? Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!
by HEIKOTradingSystem
8
Consumer savings decline, economy slows down, and EIA's forecastSince December 2022, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has been moving choppily between $70 and $83. Currently, one barrel trades near $77.50. We continue waiting on the sidelines for the market picture to clear. However, we are still unconvinced by bullish scenarios for oil, forecasting a return of $100 and above. That is because we already see a significant slowdown in economic activity around the globe and evaporating savings of consumers in the United States, both of which are likely to weigh on the oil demand in the coming months. Therefore, we would not be surprised to see USOIL break below $70 after some time. However, the U.S. administration might put a temporary floor for oil around that level due to its plans to refill Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the lower range of that price tag. As a result, this makes a compelling case for the continuation of choppy price action in oil; interestingly, that coincides with the latest assessment of the EIA. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global petroleum production will increase by 1% (1.1 million b/d) in 2023. As for U.S. petroleum production, it sees an increase of 5% (1 million barrels per day). In addition to that, it expects OPEC's output to grow by 0.5% (160 000 barrels per day), and, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and war-related sanctions, the EIA expects Russia’s production to drop by more than 12% (from 10.9 million barrels per day in 2022 to only 9.5 million barrels per day) in 2023. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price to stay relatively flat through the first half of 2023. After that, it expects the price to decline through the end of 2024. As a result, the agency foresees WTI crude oil to average $77 per barrel in 2023 and $72 per barrel in 2024. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL. It also shows 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. Yellow arrows indicate retracements toward these levels, which acted as corrections of the downtrend. We will pay close attention to the 50-day SMA and whether it will halt the price rise in the future; if it fails (and the price breaks above it), it will bolster the bullish case for oil in the short term. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
7
Third time lucky!!! Buying NatGasTrade Idea: Buying Natural Gas Reasoning: Invesrse head & shoulders on hourly chart at major support level. Posted a bullish hammer on daily. Entry Level: 3.722 Take Profit Level: 4.418 Stop Loss: 3.543 Risk/Reward: 4:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by Signal_Centre
1
Jan 11,22-NG-Will Price Drop to 3?In looking at the chart, price doesn't look good for a rebound anytime soon. I think 3 is in the cards for next week. Weather is warmer than usual across the U.S., NG prices in Europe are dropping, China might have to go back into lockdown because of Covid concerns, the WORLD is heading into a hell of a recession, even though some of the world is already into it. This is why I have stayed on the sidelines for the last 2 weeks and probably will for the next 2. Unless something changes, but price could actually drop to maybe 2.... I think 2.5 is certainly a possibility. Hence, I am looking at trading a few other markets in the meantime to make some coin. I will keep you posted. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!
by HEIKOTradingSystem
2