Natgas
Dec 11,22-NG-Who's pissed off now?a 700 point Gap Up??? SERIOUS??
I am sooooooooooooooooo pissed off - I can't believe I missed this buying opportunity last week - like I told you all in my last post last week, I missed the buying opportunity, I screwed up....but then for fate to rub it in my face with a 700 point gap up over the weekend???? CRUEL!!
Totally Cruel.
Anyway, now that NG has gone up over 1000 points in 6 days, can it go higher?? or is price going to come back down a bit. Hard to say.
I'll tell you this though.....I will be watching like a hawk. If price goes down a bit, I think I might put in a Buy Order at 6.8 or so in case price spikes up. If price keeps going down, hits 6.6, then 6.4 then lower, then I will keep my Buy Order about 200 points above the current price in case price action reverses quickly one day this week.
I know Wed the FED is going to hike rates again and this is going to cause the markets to go crazy. I've already shorted the S&P500 and making money there so I'm keeping that trade. I'm also Long on Oil as there is the whole Russia uncertainty and U.S. Supplies are dwindling quickly so I'm keeping that trade also.
But NG?? Again - I think between now and March price will go up no doubt...I just want to get in at the best price possible, and that was LAST WEEK!!! :-(
Anyway, stay safe and hit me up with your comments - I wanna know what you all think - am I crazy? Or is price still gonna go up from here?
Heiko
Dec 9,22-NG-Didn't go as low as is shouldSo how many of you missed getting in on the long trade this week? I DID!!
Piss me off - I was expecting price to get to the late Oct low of around 5 - I actually had my Buy order in at 5 and as we all know, it never got that low. So I was without a trade this week.
Now it's back up to 6 so I missed an 800 pt profit - oh well - at least I didn't lose any money :-)
We will have to see next week where price goes...good chance it might keep going up - colder weather, the War etc. Even though Oil is tanking - who knows, maybe Oil will recover next week. Anyway, I digress...
I hope everyone has an awesome Holiday Season. I have 2 weeks off work so I know I will have an awesome time!! :-)
Tons of food - tons of people - tons of visits to an from my home. Time to reconnect with everyone and have some bloody fun!
Take care and stay safe.
Heiko
Picking up rally bottoms on NATGASThe commodity shows appreciation for the bullish divergence, and seems to have bottomed its 15-day long bearish rally. A recent formation of higher low indicates the trend might just go bullish
End of the lineCheniere Energy Inc. (LNG) stock has been on the rip since the Russian invasion on Ukraine in Febuary of '22. Russian invasion has shaken the global flows of natural gas and has enabled USA to replace Russia as dominant supplied of natural gas to Europe.
Cheniere is the company which basically dominates the shipping of LNG across the Atlantic, so its no wonder their stock did more than 50% since the start of the war.
As Natural gas, and energy prices in general, are slowly correcting to pre-war levels it makes sense for LNG stock to correct to its former support. It happens that support at about $120 is the same support which was tested after the war broke out, and the stock broke out to new highs.
Bloated Bears on December..Monthly chart analysis show a bearish December bias on Natural Gas against USD. Since 2017, the pair has always been bearish in December, making this year 6th in a row!
Natural gas 2023 outlook: Approaching a key confluence zone The recent price action in the daily natural gas price chart updated to December 5, 2022, saw prices falling rapidly and breaking below the supports of two moving averages (50dma and 200dma) and some key Fibonacci retracement levels, such as the 50% retracement of the post-Ukraine war rally to August highs.
The two moving averages earlier created a death-cross pattern on November 10, which proved bearish after a brief rally to $8.04/MMBtu.
In the summer, natural gas completed a head-and-shoulders pattern, falling below the $5.30 price support. That technical pattern was preceded by negative RSI divergence between April and June 2022, which also led in severe bearish price action to the $5.30 support level.
The double bottom in October and July, as well as the significant technical resistance between November 2021 and March 2022, signal a very critical confluence zone for natural gas.
The $5.30 critical support line is an important test for natural gas prices, which would have dropped by a recession-like 47% from their peak in August.
If the war in Ukraine persists, it is quite improbable that prices will return to the $4.3 level, where they were trading on February 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Bulls may therefore reappear if the $5.3 support line and $5 psychological level are tested.
On the upside, it is unlikely that the skyrocketing price levels observed in the summer of $9.5 or more will be retested anytime soon, as they coincide to an unprecedented supply issue in Europe that triggered an increase in US domestic prices due to increased LNG exports.
In the first quarter of 2023, a sideways market trend with prices ranging from $5 to $8 appears to be the most likely scenario for US natural gas. The colder the winter. The more severe the winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the greater the possibility that prices will trade between $6.5-8 range. Rising recession risks and warmer-than-average temperatures, on the other hand, could prevent a depletion in gas reserves, keeping prices under pressure.
Dec 4,22-NG-How Low Can It Go?In my last post last week, I gave several reasons as to NG declining in price. I said that it would probably get down to 6, maybe lower.
It opened tonight in a Gap Down situation and now sits around 5.8 - crazy low.
What will it do this week? Good question...
I'm thinking it could get as low as 5.2, maybe touching 5 in a low 'rubber band' touch one day this week.
Longer term I believe price will go up...problem is you have this thing called a Worldwide Recession hanging over us in the 1st quarter next year. This will keep prices down.
You have Winter which will push prices up. And who knows what the War holds.
Bottom line...dangerous time to trade. Unless you have a sure bet (which we never do), maybe best to stay on the sidelines and keep your cash :-)
Stay safe and trade well.
Heiko
NATURAL GAS: AND IF THIS HAPPEN...?Hi guys, this is my biggest "fear".
I'm planning to buy low, obviously, but if the rise start now, i'm not confident to enter at this point of the year with recession and war.
Do you have a plan for this?
Let's see.
Nov 27,22-NG Neutral this week?As you can see from the Daily Chart, price action is at the outside of the Linear Regression so it's possible this week price action could drop...maybe under 6.
1 - late last week both European AND UK NG price dropped
2 - Weather is looking steady, certainly on the cooler side, but still no snow really in the forcast for basically all of the U.S.
3 - China is in lockdown to the point that the world is now fearing a slowdown at the least - most of the world is thinking China will push the world into a recession as early as Jan, where price would certainly drop for NG
4 - Fractal from last week on the Daily so price will probably drop some. If price acion does NOT go up past 7.6 this week then there will be a fractal on the weekly chart also for next Sun.
So will price drop this week?? Or just stay around Neutral?? No idea. Will probably go down some, at least that's what I'm thinking.
So I have no idea how to trade this week so I'm on the sidelines till I can figure something out.
Heiko
InvestMate|Natgas gaining momentum🔥🔥Natgas is gaining momentum.
🔥In the current post I would like to give you an overview of my current upward scenario on Natural gas.
🔥As you can see, for a good few weeks the price of natgas has started to rise again.
🔥Big upward impulses are preceded by small corrections.
🔥The level I intend to see is around 8.2
🔥The price level stems from a resistance zone that I determined based on a cluster of two fibo measures.
The first is the 1.618 level of the largest downward correction. The second is the 0.618 level of the entire downward wave from peak to bottom.
🔥This combination of fibo levels is highly effective I am very curious to see how the market will react to it in the coming days.
🔥You can see that as recently the price just approached this level there was immediately a sellers reaction.
🔥I determined the support zone based on the last peak and it has been a place in the past where the price has reacted many times.
🔥The scenario I am playing out is a continuation of the upside, taking into account smaller corrections along the way.
🔥 *Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario.
🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
NATURAL GAS Looking for short setup at 200 MA#NATURAL_GAS Is on the way to meet the 200 MA and the lower belly of the bullish channel. There is a high probability of rejection at that level. I am looking for a short at that point with a reasonable stoploss.
Check out my older NATGAS idea
NATURAL GAS Critical test for bullish or bearish DecemberNatural Gas (NG1!) hit yesterday the Lower Highs trend-line of the August 22 top and today we see the first signs of a rejection. Until this breaks decisively, we can expect NG to pull-back to the 0.382 and 0.236 Fibonacci levels.
Based on the 1W RSI though, which is on a Falling Wedge since the October 01 2021 High, there is still some room to rally, and if yesterday's Lower High is anything like the February 02 2022 Lower High, then after this pull-back we can expect a rebound back to the 0.786 and 1.0 Fibs even a new Higher High. In that case we will be buying every closing above each Fib.
A complete bearish reversal scenario will take place if the price makes a weekly close below the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which is where NG rebounded on October 24.
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NatGas: Caffeine Overdose ☕️🔋Looks like somebody overindulged on caffeine yesterday since NatGas jumped quite high to complete wave a in pink. We're currently expecting the course to drop back below the resistance line at $7.221 to finish off wave b in pink, before starting another climb above this mark. As soon as NatGas has crossed $7.221, it should rise further to complete wave (B) in white near the resistance at $9.238. A 33% chance remains, though, that NatGas could continue the downwards movement and fall below the support at $5.547, thus triggering further descent below $4.750 and into the pink zone between $4.068 and $3.493.
Nov 23,22-NG Winner-Finally closed original tradeFINALLY!! lol My original trade from like 2 months ago which was a Buy Order at 7 I finally closed this morning at 7.3 for an ok 300 point profit.
As you can see from the chart, I have no more open trades. I'm going to stay on the sidelines as this week is a short trading week because of the American Thanksgiving.
Between now and Sun night?!?!? Who knows what can happen! The War, Covid in China, Cold Weather, Warm weather - who knows. All I know is I don't want to hold trades for the next 5 or 6 days not knowing what the Big Boys are gonna do - then Sun night there is a huge Gap Down or something.
Anyway, price action might continue up to 7.6 or so early next week, or maybe it will tank based on all the crap happening in the world - hard to say.
Happy Thanksgiving to those of you celebrating. Otherwise, take call all and stay safe - I will post early next week and let you know my thoughts.
Heiko
NATGAS long viewThe price of gas should continue the current bullish consolidation, and the target is the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $7.50. We may also see gas at the $8.00 level.
Natural Gas goes Gartley!Natural gas show somewhat gartley harmonics pattern, indicating a subsequent bull-run. Buyers should wait for rejection of a subsequent bearish ABCD pattern before going long.
NGAS BULLISH OUTLOOKNGAS prices started rising on Monday after a cold wave engulfed the European continent, testing its ability to coupe with the cold weather without its main natural gas supplier Russia.
The instrument broke the resistance levels of the triangle chart pattern entering into a bullish movement. RSI indicator is above the 50 neutral line and MACD histogram is above 0, both confirming the potential bullish movement.
If the trend continues the price might try to test levels of 7.649 In the opposite scenario, the price might try its previous support of 6.554
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USOIL - Deteriorating outlook On 7th November 2022, USOIL broke above the short-term resistance at 93.61$ and peaked at 93.73$. However, a few hours later, the breakout became invalidated, and the price started to drift lower. For the subsequent ten trading sessions, the price kept declining approximately 16% to a low of 77.24$ on the last Friday; before closing at 80.14$ that same day.
In April 2021, we stated the oil market peaked, and the price was headed to 90$ in the long term, which was hit four months later. In addition to that, we provided several more short-term and medium-term price targets until the volatility started to pick up in late summer.
Because of this elevated volatility, we announced that we would abstain from setting more price targets, except for a long-term one at 70$. Now, with the recession in full progress and the deteriorating outlook for the oil market, we are starting to reconsider the timestamp on our price target.
We are considering updating the price target to medium-term (and potentially short-term after a while) depending on more oil market developments. With that being said, we will pay close attention to the rhetoric of the U.S. administration and the possibility of more SPR releases, which would lead to lower oil prices. Additionally, we will monitor the narrative of OPEC and other energy institutions for more oil market data that could suggest lesser oil demand and oil demand growth going forward.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
MACD broke below 0 points, which is very bearish. RSI and Stochastic are also bearish. DM+ and DM- performed a bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Although the trend remains weak,
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is bearish. Stochastic and MACD are neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
#Natgas short opportunitycontractionary monitory policy on one hand and full storage of European countries to cover the winter put pressure on energy commodities like oil, Natgas and etc..
from technical point of view we are in bullish corrective move after massive impulsive Daily bearish move which took out the Daily low. Price on the way down formed measuring gap which also got filled by price corrective move.
Now there are 2 key areas above current price which can bring selling pressure and cause topping formation but if price can close above the first arrow in 4H timeframe or higher then we expect price to goes higher to test the high.
🔥 Natural gas (NG): resumption of the long-term bull trend.●● Preferred count
● Natural Gas Cash ( NG .C), 🕐TF: 20D
Fig.1
I worked out in detail the counting of long-term waves on the historical chart 1930-2022 .
The chart has a number of notes. The structure of wave (IV) in the future may become more complicated to a triangle. The ending diagonal (V) is also questionable — the development of momentum I-II-III-IV-V is possible.
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● Natural Gas (CURRENCYCOM), 🕐TF: 1W
Fig.2
Variant of counting of wave structure V of (III) in the form of an expanding diagonal and subsequent (IV) , which, apparently, took the form of a double zigzag with a triangle in x .
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● CFDs on Natural Gas (OANDA), 🕐TF: 1D
Fig.3
The July 2021 forecast has been implemented. As expected, correction ② (wave Ⓑ in the current version of the counting) took the form of an expanded flat, returning to the area of the previous fourth wave .
A long-term bullish trend is expected to resume.
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● CFDs on Natural Gas (OANDA), 🕐TF: 8h
Fig.4
A good signal for opening a long position will be formed by waves 1 and 2 with consolidation above the moving average with a period of 610 .
📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️
Nov 17,22-NG-900 pt profit-pullbacktimeI still have my stubborn original trade sitting at 7...but I made a nice 900 point profit overnight as my 5.6 Buy Order hit 6.4 - NICE :-)
So is there going to be another pullback now? Not sure...weather is still looking cold, but the storage report later today will probably show no change, not very much change so price might go down some. If there IS a pullback, I will wait till the bottom hits and put in another Buy Order.
Overall, between now and March I'm still LONG on NG - between Winter and the War, I see no reason for price to fall too much.
Stay safe all...
Heiko
