Natgas
NGAS BULLISH OUTLOOKNGAS prices started rising on Monday after a cold wave engulfed the European continent, testing its ability to coupe with the cold weather without its main natural gas supplier Russia.
The instrument broke the resistance levels of the triangle chart pattern entering into a bullish movement. RSI indicator is above the 50 neutral line and MACD histogram is above 0, both confirming the potential bullish movement.
If the trend continues the price might try to test levels of 7.649 In the opposite scenario, the price might try its previous support of 6.554
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USOIL - Deteriorating outlook On 7th November 2022, USOIL broke above the short-term resistance at 93.61$ and peaked at 93.73$. However, a few hours later, the breakout became invalidated, and the price started to drift lower. For the subsequent ten trading sessions, the price kept declining approximately 16% to a low of 77.24$ on the last Friday; before closing at 80.14$ that same day.
In April 2021, we stated the oil market peaked, and the price was headed to 90$ in the long term, which was hit four months later. In addition to that, we provided several more short-term and medium-term price targets until the volatility started to pick up in late summer.
Because of this elevated volatility, we announced that we would abstain from setting more price targets, except for a long-term one at 70$. Now, with the recession in full progress and the deteriorating outlook for the oil market, we are starting to reconsider the timestamp on our price target.
We are considering updating the price target to medium-term (and potentially short-term after a while) depending on more oil market developments. With that being said, we will pay close attention to the rhetoric of the U.S. administration and the possibility of more SPR releases, which would lead to lower oil prices. Additionally, we will monitor the narrative of OPEC and other energy institutions for more oil market data that could suggest lesser oil demand and oil demand growth going forward.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
MACD broke below 0 points, which is very bearish. RSI and Stochastic are also bearish. DM+ and DM- performed a bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Although the trend remains weak,
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is bearish. Stochastic and MACD are neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
#Natgas short opportunitycontractionary monitory policy on one hand and full storage of European countries to cover the winter put pressure on energy commodities like oil, Natgas and etc..
from technical point of view we are in bullish corrective move after massive impulsive Daily bearish move which took out the Daily low. Price on the way down formed measuring gap which also got filled by price corrective move.
Now there are 2 key areas above current price which can bring selling pressure and cause topping formation but if price can close above the first arrow in 4H timeframe or higher then we expect price to goes higher to test the high.
🔥 Natural gas (NG): resumption of the long-term bull trend.●● Preferred count
● Natural Gas Cash ( NG .C), 🕐TF: 20D
Fig.1
I worked out in detail the counting of long-term waves on the historical chart 1930-2022 .
The chart has a number of notes. The structure of wave (IV) in the future may become more complicated to a triangle. The ending diagonal (V) is also questionable — the development of momentum I-II-III-IV-V is possible.
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● Natural Gas (CURRENCYCOM), 🕐TF: 1W
Fig.2
Variant of counting of wave structure V of (III) in the form of an expanding diagonal and subsequent (IV) , which, apparently, took the form of a double zigzag with a triangle in x .
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● CFDs on Natural Gas (OANDA), 🕐TF: 1D
Fig.3
The July 2021 forecast has been implemented. As expected, correction ② (wave Ⓑ in the current version of the counting) took the form of an expanded flat, returning to the area of the previous fourth wave .
A long-term bullish trend is expected to resume.
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● CFDs on Natural Gas (OANDA), 🕐TF: 8h
Fig.4
A good signal for opening a long position will be formed by waves 1 and 2 with consolidation above the moving average with a period of 610 .
📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️
Nov 17,22-NG-900 pt profit-pullbacktimeI still have my stubborn original trade sitting at 7...but I made a nice 900 point profit overnight as my 5.6 Buy Order hit 6.4 - NICE :-)
So is there going to be another pullback now? Not sure...weather is still looking cold, but the storage report later today will probably show no change, not very much change so price might go down some. If there IS a pullback, I will wait till the bottom hits and put in another Buy Order.
Overall, between now and March I'm still LONG on NG - between Winter and the War, I see no reason for price to fall too much.
Stay safe all...
Heiko
Natural Gas Rebounds Targeting $6 Level AgainOn the hourly chart, Natural Gas (NATGAS) has recovered its short- and long-term EMAs. Buyers are aiming for $6.035-6.105 as primary targets, and $6.203-6.222 as a secondary bullish target.
On the other hand, a break below the $5.864 level may invalidate the previous bullish hypothesis, and we will target the $5.697-5.628 and $5.549-5.492 levels.
NATGAS UP AS TEMRATURES DROP ?- Tempratures are dropping in EU after a relatively soft Autumn
- Cold weather should increase demand for NATGAS
- NATGAS in a up-sloping Wyckoff channel
- Looking for a 1 deviation run higher
- Lower GAP is support
- Mid GAP should offer support once broken
- Higher GAP is target = 2nd DEV = Monthly R2
NATURAL GAS - NatGas - Long - H&S patternThe natgas have a potental drop until support area .. e new long push up.
In this case there are possibilities for an H&S patter
see in the picture the monitoring area before open a trade
if the price break the double top are we will go up directly
Nov 9,22-NG-Get ready to go long folksNG has dropped a hell of a lot this week already, not sure how much more it can drop. I'm looking at Friday to get into a Long trade...if not then Sun night or Mon morning next week. Why?
COLD WEATHER!! It's coming...damn cold weather across the U.S.
Friday starts cold weather here in Toronto...in Alberta we already have snow on the ground. And next week in the U.S. it's gonna start getting quite cold, at least for U.S. standards.
So I'm thinking price action will probably go back up. I still have my Buy Order at 7 waiting for some profits. I will put in an order maybe at 6, but I'm hoping to get in at 5.7 on a dip in price, sometime before the end of this week.
Stay safe all.
Heiko
WTI oil - Global oil demand is set to fall with deeper recessionIn the recent past, we abstained from setting price targets for the short and medium term. Meanwhile, we became focused on the long-term price target of 70$, which stays in place as we continue to be bearish on USOIL. Our view is based on the deepening recession and falling oil demand.
Yesterday, the IEA Executive Director, Faith Birol, said in his interview with Bloomberg during the COP27 summit, "The recent decision of OPEC+ to cut the production by two million barrels a day was definitely not helpful." Additionally, he said that this move by the cartel was fueling inflation in developing countries and may require a "rethink".
If his words come true, the world could see temporary stabilization of USOIL prices between 80$ and 90$. However, all depends also on Joe Biden, who currently does not support more drilling activity. Since the stance of the U.S. administration might quickly change (with an even deeper recession and end of midterms) and send prices much lower, we pay close attention to the energy dispute between the U.S. and OPEC.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD show signs of exhaustion. DM+ and DM- are bullish but due to cross each other. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.
Illustration 1.01
The image above shows the hourly chart of USOIL and simple sloping support/resistance levels. Interestingly, the immediate sloping support was broken to the downside, which is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and MACD are neutral. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Taf's Gun to the HeadTrade Idea : Sell Nat Gas at market
Reasoning: broke down from the medium term trenline and retested it with rejection so looking for bearish continuation to target previous resistance which becomes support at 6.300.
Entry:6.690
TP:6.305
SL:6.858
RR:2.29
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Nov 7,22-NG Winner Again-1000 pt profitWhat a beautiful open last night for NG - It had a massive Gap Up where in my last post to you I said I was looking for another 700 pt profit closing at 6.7. Because of the Gap Up I was able to close my Buy Order at 7. Buy at 6 and close at 7 is a 1000 point profit - NICE :-)
Last up is my first Buy Order from about a month ago at 7. I'm looking again for a 700 pt profit, but depending what price action is looking like I might close it out at 7.5, we shall see.
Anyway, 3 for 3 on some decent profits over the last few weeks - congrats to all who have been following my trades.
Stay safe and take care.
Heiko
NATGAS Looks Bullish! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS was trading below
A key horizontal level but now
We are seeing a bullish breakout
So I am bullish biased locally
And I think that after the retest
We will see more growth
Buy!
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See other ideas below too!
NATURAL GAS: I'M WAITING NEXT SPRINGHi guys,
as you can see on my NatGas analyses, for now i'm bearish but this doesn't mean i'm short on price.
I'm just watching and waitinig for a good entry point to long NatGas, and now seems obvious we were in a big channel that now is broken.
So what's next?
Maybe we will see a retest of support in these weeks and then a big fall, since all EU country have big reserve for this winter.
Next year will be more different.
Let's see.
NATURAL GAS NATGAS Technical analysisSee Chart For Analysis.
Higher Timeframe:
-Price inside weekly demand
-Trend = uptrend
-Looking for longs
Lower Timeframe:
-4hr over-extended market broke 3x DBD in a row.
-Price making HH/HL on 4hr timeframe.
-Price shows both ML break + opposing zones removed + quality zones
Options:
1) buy inside 4hr demand
2) look for 5min/15min buys with confirmation once price enters 4hr demands.