NATURAL GAS - NatGas - LongSo after a deep down of price we can have a shortly pull back.
Attention about possibilities for a long continuation after the pull back .. or in case of deep change of global situation about e breakdown of price until 6$ area.
After the pull back could be more clear the wave situation
Final ((C)) is completed or not?
Natgas
XLE BO:bottom@66,Support@76, next stops are 90/98/107BULLISH CASE: XLE held a June low @66 which is a 0.618 retracement. It formed a triangle & has since bounced off the base very strongly with 2 gap-ups. Moving averages 50, 100 & 200 are forming a ribbon & are all pointing up. 76 is a strong support with volume profile.
If this breakout from the triangle sees a follow-thru in the next few days, XLE may double the triangle & target the next 2 Fib levels at 98 & 107 with some consolidation at the recent ATH at 90.
Crude oil & Natural gas bouncing strongly.
10-yr rate TNX & dollar index DXY turns up & are also bouncing higher.
BEARISH CASE: If this will be a false breakout, then the 2 recent up-gaps will be filled with XLE going back inside the triangle.
Not trading advice
NATURAL GAS on a head & shoulder 🦐NATURAL GAS after the bull run is losing momentum.
The price on the daily chart is creating a head and shoulder and according to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below the neckline and satisfy the A ACADEMY rules we will set a nice short order.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Oct 4,22-NG Still Long at 7So today was a good day - NG recovered nicely from some serious lows of 6.3. WTF? No idea. Anyway...
We will see where NG ends this week but I'm hoping it will close above 7. Price action is almost at the green line of Williams Alligator - once it closes past it, we should be in good shape.
I'll keep you updated at the end of this week.
Heiko
WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind BullsWhen crude was trading at $120 a few months ago, all you would hear on Twitter from people like Javier Blas from Bloomberg and other propaganda pundits is about how the fundamentals of oil are so bullish, because OPEC production is maxed out, the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine, domestic demand because summer, the government donating the strategic reserves to Chinese Communist Party firms on the cheap , etc, etc.
There was all that chatter about Europe putting a price cap on Russian oil, and that causing the price to surge overnight to $350 in some kind of dystopian nightmare.
At the time, everyone wanted to get long. Everyone would only get long. I remember one day in July oil returned to $91 on like a 10% daily drop and one Twitter pundit thanked the market makers for their "delta squeezing put options" before expiry and that he was happy that he got to buy calls that cheap because it was never going to happen again.
This is the way bull runs are. They tend to end when the narrative flips entirely to "who would ever short this?!"
And that ending is easier for bulls when something gaps down and breaks the momentum than it is with the price pattern being employed by the WTI MMs where everything all the way up and all the way down is trading in an efficient pattern that seeks-and-destroys both ways on the shorter timeframe.
In terms of specific price action, as I pointed out in my early August call that oil was on its way to far lower double digit numbers:
WTI Crude Oil - Running and Gunning
That the August price action with a quiet sweep of the July ~$86 lows, followed by a bounce, followed by a quadruple bottom, was simply too naive to think would be support.
Now, we're at $81, and it once again sounds like a dip to buy. And while we're probably going to see a run back to $86~, this market is no longer in a dip to buy position.
A lot of things make sense when you look at the monthly:
All of this price action we just experienced in early 2021 was, ultimately, a clean up of the unfinished business from the 2008 bubble pop, which was never addressed during the 2010-2014 ranging.
And really, after oil hit... -$38 during Coronavirus Disease 2019 hysteria, you really have to call that the bottom.
If you can't call -$38 the bottom, what would a bottom ever be?
Now, for those who guffaw at the prospect of oil going back to $50, this is totally fair enough. As always, it sounds impossible, until it unfolds. Humans are only able to believe in what they see. Having even a modicum of faith is a real stretch for almost everyone.
But I would like to point out that there is a precedental fractal left behind in the run up to the 2008 bubble pop, which you can see on the left hand side of the monthly chart above.
Oil more or less traded in a miniature of this exact same 2022 pattern. When it broke its pivots before finally rocketing to $140, it amounted to a total 35% $28 downturn, which was an enormous number in those trading ranges.
Everything is highly inflated and much more volatile and interesting today.
The weekly chart shows just how dangerous the situation is for bulls.
The reality is, the only inefficiency during this current market structure is in this $81 range, which we are sitting in. It's not showing a lot of interest in bouncing, and it would have to get back into the $100s to really count as a reversal.
So if $80 isn't the target to make a bottom at, what is?
Well, looking at the daily we can see more clearly that there's something of a plan B in the $69 range that can count as maintaining market structure if a reversal occurs within it.
And there's also a chance to maintain the trendline at $66.
But in reality, there's a fat double bottom to blow away formed from the September and December 2021 lows.
And based on the weekly, there are inefficiencies left behind that were never readdressed at the unfortunate numbers around $50, and specifically right under the psychological $50 level.
In my opinion, before oil turns around and rips North to levels that will make living in this world nearly impossible for everyone who isn't a billionaire, the MMs will seek and destroy these levels. And they may stop being so polite about it.
It may start to come faster and faster.
At some point in the near term future, dumps may come with a quick and significant gap down, and this time, they won't fill.
Pundits, analysts, and all sorts of charlatans will all be stunned and bewildered by how it could happen under the macro conditions. And then they will all say "oh, of course, look at these data points. It was only natural that $120 was an inflated number."
The answer, they will say, is undoubtedly "something something mainland China 'Zero-COVID' economic demand," not understanding the real state of disaster being wrought in that country as Wuhan Pneumonia goes on a tear and the Chinese Communist Party is starting to be unable to cover it up for much longer.
But $125~ was not a top for WTI crude, and neither was $140. A much more painful number like $180 or $200 is coming, and it's not going to take years to get there.
I believe that natural gas, likewise, has a lot of downside left to go:
Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull?
A lot of things are probably going to bounce for a bit longer and then start to very aggressively dump. You should be prepared for this.
Stop listening to talking heads, propaganda, and charlatans, and be rational. None of them want to help you survive financially and none of them want you to be rich. Most of them don't even trade. Trading is hard. Everyone who has ever traded with live funds knows how hard it is to get in at the right time, in the right direction, and hold through all the chaos and pain until something bears fruit.
Fronting and flexing on the Internet to a flock of 50 Cent Party bots and collecting a 6 figure salary from Bloomberg or a 6 figure donation from YouTube's profit sharing program, on the other hand, is just so, so easy.
Talk is cheap, and yet, mastery is not.
Rationality is, ultimately, linked to your level of morality and your values.
$BOIL Nat Gas play scaling inBOIL is a very volatile ticker that follows NG Natural Gas Futures
Scaling into CSPs ( cash secured puts) OCT 45P trading at $4.90 here .
Used some of this premium to buy OCT $80 calls at 3.65
A bit of knife catching and mean reversion speculating here
If we get one more flush, will do final scale in .
I'm comfortable to roll or even be assigned shares as there are juicy premiums !
Higher risk trade idea, playing with profits !
Sep 27,22-NG-Buy time? I think soSo price action fell back a bit down to 6.7 and 6.8 so I put a Buy order in at 7. I'm anticipating this to be filled tomorrow. The storage report on Thurs might bring prices back down a bit depending on what the numbers are, but I'm hoping the numbers will spike the price up to 7.3 or so. Hoping to finish the week off at about 7.5
Your thoughts?
Heiko
NATURAL GAS - NatGas - shortok ok .. this not an easy trade!.. probably, in this moment work on Natural gas is near to gambling at casinò but based on technical point we can have a short direction
Let me explain the main point
1) COT report say that non commercial are short (with increase)
2) Europe has completed the "stock" for this winter
3) Europe has created a big plan to reduce the electricity consumption
4) USA has a short possibilities for increase the natural gas export at least for the next two mounths
5) The petroil cost are decrease and cuold be more convenient that GAS
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all this with technical wave analysis suggest a potential drop ...
Trade safe.. always
A risky NATGAS long play // SC - short correctionHi Everyone!✋🏽
I want to show you an idea that has a possibility to turn into winner trades, however, compared to the reward, the risk involved is quite high, since this goes through a CORRECTION.
Primary trend is short, but we have a weekly south breakout to be tested, if the price bounces back from the Daily 138.2 target has been recently reached. That weekly south breakout happens to be just topping a nice daily south breakout. Both zones are within the 38.2-61.8 FIBO retracement levels. In my analysis, such phases on the markets mean, that price can turn into direction of the primary trend, that is short. But we are not there yet!
The first direction at the moment is long only after the green trigger level is broken, but shouldn't let the profit run this time, because the market may make a round in no time!
ANYWAY, a lot of Qs about the direction of the price. But it doesn't matter. WE JUST REACT!
Happy trading! ⚪️⚫️
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Thanks for reading my analysis!🤘🏽
Please remember to support the idea with a BOOST or COMMENT
with your highly appreciated opinion!
USOIL - An attempt to support the price failsOn 17th August 2022, we warned that the oil market might be positioning itself for a downtrend correction. Accordingly, we said we would pay close attention to the sloping resistance and a potential breakout above it.
Then, a few days later, the breakout occurred, and the price of USOIL spiked to 97.65 USD. Meanwhile, we abandoned our bearish price targets due to the OPEC considering production cuts. However, we also stated that the retracement (below the sloping resistance) could be utilized as short position re-entry.
Finally, after the OPEC announcement, we said the production cut would have a minimal impact on the market. So today, we would like to update price targets for USOIL. Our new short-term price target is 80 USD, and our long-term price target is 70 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The image above shows the daily chart of USOIL. It also depicts the bullish breakout above the sloping support/resistance and subsequent bearish retracement.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows simple support and resistance levels for USOIL. The yellow arrow indicates the most recent bearish breakout.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Sep 23,22-NG still sliding...to what? 6?So recession fears are the talk of this week and the markets are tanking.
As you all know, people have a short memory - could be next week or the week after, NG will rise again.
Be ready for the turnaround and ride it up. That's what I'm going to be looking for.
How low will it go? Probably 6.5 for sure, maybe even 6. Next week is a new week so trade smart - volatile times we are in that's for sure. Between War, Cold coming, and world resources changing ESPECIALLY regarding NG (as Russia has cut Europe off), NG is going to be a hard one to trade.
Stay safe and enjoy your weekend!
Heiko
Sep 21,22-NG-Totally Neutral right nowSo as you can see from this weekly chart...NG has certainly been in a downdraft - congrats to everyone who sold NG when it was above 9.
The question now is, where is price going to go? I will wait for an order until I can see a direction. Still 2 days to go this week and the weekly storage report tomorrow so we shall see if that moves price at all.
Otherwise, I guess I will wait until next week to put an order in.
Stay safe.
Heiko
Natural Gas (NATGASUSD): Technical Outlook 💨
Natural Gas formed a huge head and shoulders pattern on a daily time frame.
7.33 - 7.88 is its wide horizontal neckline.
If the price breaks and closes below the neckline, it will be a very strong bearish signal.
I believe that then the market can easily drop to 6.17 level.
Remember, that for now, a neckline represents a strong demand area.
Consider shorting only after its breakout.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Soybeans ZS - Lagging the Pack, but Ready to GoThis is a call I wanted to make yesterday, but didn't have time. With the time I had, there was a choice between this and a Nasdaq NS call and made the Nasdaq call:
Nasdaq NQ - 8 Days & 1,700 Points
But in fairness, I did pick up November options during yesterday's session, so at least I can say that much for myself, since this has some vibes of hindsight based on today's action.
Regardless, Soybeans gives strong cause to believe bullish action is imminent, based on the monthly candles:
What this tells us that our June high formed a double top with the '12 all-time high. But most critically, it formed a lower high double top, which means that MMs are likely to seek this level to crush bear skulls, and it's just a question of when.
The post-resistance top was really a long gap fill and we've also had three months of consolidation. As everyone who's traded with real money knows, picking the direction and the price is not the hardest, but instead, the timing is the very hardest, and most critical, thing.
And in terms of timing, the weekly gives us good cause to believe we're ready to go. We see that late July featured a gap up, which has been filled in and heavily consolidated over the course of five weeks:
And thusly, there is significantly reduced reason to believe that Soybeans are set to seek new lows instead of new highs.
And indeed, on the daily, what has manifested is a string of higher lows, culminating in this morning's gundown of the 1,400 level
A gundown that looks exceptionally turtle soup on the 1H, albeit retrospectively since it already ripped. But note that the rip occurred at 9:00 just before NYSE opens, significant because there are ETFs like SOYB that get caught gap up.
More importantly, maybe consider not trying to short the pop. Instead, going long on a pullback could be quite good.
And so, in magnifying the timeframe down to the 4H, I discovered that targeting boxes that appeared correct on the wider time frame were a little too shallow on the lower time frames. Thusly, I have generated a "revised" targeting box.
However, like I said, time is the harder consideration. I feel ZS will get there, but who knows when? In the meantime, a rundown of the 1,500 level, which corresponds with those August-July relative equal highs around ~1,485 is very realistic.
Everyone knows the global food supply is in trouble because of all the drought . Whether it's corn, wheat, soy, or whatever. And while you can certainly expect a new all time high to be made, it's really a question of when.
Months like December, January, and February when everything is both trapped in winter, a new calendar year, and people are struggling to pay incredibly high natural gas/electricity bills across the world resulting from problems governments have created since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine this year, may be the more likely time target for 2,000 point Soybeans.