Long Natural GasNatural Gas futures have retraced the 2022 bull trend to a 50% Retracement Level at 6.60. Price needs to hold this level or else it risks giving up the 2022 trend.
This trade was prompted by a 30 minute timeframe Spike Alert this morning that pegged the broader trend level and sets up a low risk test. Stop alert below the morning low and an initial target a Retrace of the move down.
Some D****** members chose AMEX:BOIL to express the trade (more volatility for more gains) and I chose AMEX:UNG as the vehicle.
Natgas
NATGAS LongHey,
I think NATGAS is oversold. The price has dropped some 30% from the top, partly because 2% of the US demand abruptly seized, as Freeport LNG had an explosion, and are delaying restart of the facilities.
Never know what happens in this volatile market, but as long as the conflicts between Russia and the west continues, I believe NATGAS is going to continue upwards soon. Be careful though!
Kind regards and God be with you,
Thomchris777
Jun 20, 22 NG time to go long?So I heard Germany will have to fire up their coal plants due to Russia clamping down on their supply of NG to Germany.
I don't know if this will affect U.S. NG or not, but considering how far NG has fallen in the last 3 days or so, I imagine NG might go back up 500 points or so this week.
Let me know your thoughts.
Stay safe.
Heiko
NATURAL GAS Strong sell towards at least the 1D MA200Natural Gas (NG1!) broke below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last week for the first time since February 11 and upon the first re-test as a Resistance, it got rejected. This indicates strong sell bias on the medium-term. The likely target is the zone within the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA300 (green trend-line) or when the 1D RSI turns oversold.
With the long-term pattern being a Bullish Megaphone since July 2020, the 1D MA200 was reached on both previous Higher Lows formation. Depending on the news at the time, as long as the pattern holds, the price is then more likely to bounce back up. However NG's multi-month cyclical behavior shows that it is close to the end of the current Cycle. So if the Megaphone breaks to the downside, be ready to invest in a long-term sell. Updates will follow until then.
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NatGas: It´s not over, yet!Yesterday´s massive sell-off of natural gas sparked many discussions about what is going to happen next. Well, we expect the price to drop further and reach the turquiose zone between $6.482 - $5.858. Here, we believe that the correction will end and turn into a big upward trend. However, if the course drops below this zone, further sell-offs will be triggered.
NatGas NG1! - Further Decline Ahead, P5 Possibly ReachedAllen Andrews gave us great rules.
The P5 rule is one of them.
As we see in the chart, P5 could be reached.
What does this mean?
It's an indication that price is at it's peak and a potential turn is ahead.
Furthermore we have reached the center-line, where
a) price will beak through, revisit and continues
or
b) price will turn and trade to the opposite direction, which would be far below at the L-MLH (the lower parallel).
I like to wait for some kind of confirmation.
One of these I have in my arsenal is the break of previous lower highs.
You can see the short line in the chart, where I would start to take action.
So, we have another LT chart to observe.
Keep it in your watch list - it could be an epic play.
Jun 14, 22 NG - Nice ProfitsHope all profited in that last huge drop today. Price action didn't hit 9 like I wanted, so I got in a little late, but still got in at 8.2 and got out at 7.2 for a very nice 1000 point profit in a couple hours!!
NICE!
With the hot weather across the U.S. and the LNG terminal damaged, I'm expecting price to go back up - not sure how high, but I put in a Buy Order at 7.5 expecting it to go to at least 8, but I'm hoping 8.2
Stay safe and congrats to all who made some serious money!! :-)
Heiko
US Natural Gas Had Its Worst Day Since 2018: RSI falls Below 50US natural gas prices posted their worst daily performance since mid-November 2018 today, plummeting 17% to $7.2/MMBtu, as of writing, after Freeport LNG announced early Tuesday morning that it does not expect the export facility to resume full plant operations until late 2022 due to the explosion occurred on June 8.
The Freeport LNG facility has a production of 2 billion cubic feet per day, or around 16% of US LNG export capability, and has been operating at near full capacity in recent months.
The disruption at one of the largest US liquefied natural gas export terminals will put a severe upward pressure on European gas prices ( Dutch TTF ), which have been falling in recent months as Europe has significantly increased its liquified natural gas imports from the United States.
Technically, US natural gas prices are now testing the 2022 bullish trendline, with the momentum indicator (14-day RSI) dropping to 38, the lowest level since the start of the year.
A breach below the psychological threshold of $7/MMBtu would open the door for a bearish assault to the nearest support in the 6.50 zone (lows of April 25 and May 10).
Jun 8, 22 NG WINNERS - Nice Profits for allWOW!! What a crazy ride eh this past week?? I put my initial order in and I was correct that price action dropped, but not low enough - I had my TP set at 8.
Then price went skyrocketing up so I put another Sell order in at 9 and moved my TP to 8.2
And just in the last 45 minutes or so, price action hit my TP at 8.2 and I made out with some NICE profits, one order at 800 points profit and the other order at 500 points!!
All in a weeks work :-)
Congrats to all who traded the same - enjoy your profits!!
Heiko
Jun 3,22 NG Sell Again if it hits 9?I thought price action would fall all the way down to 8, but it didnt. It came down to just under 8.2.
Congrats to all who took your profits then!!
I was out at the time so I missed the price change back up.
Now that price is basically back where I started, it might try to touch 9 again which is where I will put in another sell order.
I moved my TP to 8.2 as that is the new support level.
This might now happen till next week sometime.
Stay safe.
Heiko
EQT Flare-Off Top Somebody tell Toby Rice Sell Them SharesWhat Is Tragedy of the Commons?
The tragedy of the commons is an economics problem in which every individual has an incentive to consume a resource, but at the expense of every other individual—with no way to exclude anyone from consuming. Initially it was formulated by asking what would happen if every shepherd, acting in their own self-interest, allowed their flock to graze on the common field. If everybody does act in their apparent own best interest, it results in harmful over-consumption (all the grass is eaten, to the detriment of everyone)
Popular support for alternative energy has been very high for years. But it harms corporate profits.
The top is near for the fossil fuel energy mini-cycle, demand destruction will be the narrative this summer
NatGas: LowIt hit the floor (it hit the floor)
Next thing you know
NatGas got low, low, low, low, low, low, low, low
Okay, these aren’t exactly the lyrics of Flo Rida’s “Low”, but they are fitting, nonetheless, for we expect NatGas to move further downwards below the support at $7.524. Just before the next support at $6.466, though, NatGas should turn around and head upwards, crossing $7.524 and even the resistance at $9.60. However, there is a 38% chance that NatGas doesn’t listen to Flo Rida’s song. Instead, it could climb directly above the resistance at $9.60 and subsequently rise into the blue zone between $11.298 and $12.116.
May 23, 22 NG Almost short time?Looks like my prediction was correct from Friday. I was thinking we may have a spike on Mon and here it is. How long will it last? not sure...
But, I'm looking at a top out of 8.8 or 8.7
So I am looking at putting in a Sell Order around there tomorrow or Wed.
I'll keep you updated.
Heiko
NATURAL GAS | IMPORTANT LEVELNATGAS / XNGUSD is trading at very important resistance. The price is trading on this price for couple of days with long wick rejection candles.
Although the phobia among the European countries is still intact but price action suggest different stories.
Wait for breakout or clear rejection before opening any position.
Trade your levels accordingly.
May 19, 22-NG Pullback? Buy Opp at 7.7?NG has been making higher highs and higher lows this past week or so....I'm watching for another pullback today down to 7.7 - I will see if it blows past this point but if it finds some support here then tomorrow or later tonight could be a Buy Order around that 7.7 mark.
NG is still looking like it's on a tear so we will see what the report says today and go from there.
Heiko
Elliott Wave Analysis: Natural Gas Confirms Temporary TopHello traders and investors, today we will talk about Natural Gas in which we can see sharp and impulsive decline from the highs, which in Elliott wave theory suggests and confirms temporary top in place.
From Elliott Wave perspective we can clearly see a completed five-wave bullish cycle within 5th wave at projected 9.0 level. In Elliott waves, after every five waves, we can expect a three-wave A-B-C reversal, so with current five-wave drop from the highs, seems like Natgas is now slowing down within a higher degree (A)-(B)-(C) correction.
Well, wave (A) seems to be completed now, so we may now see a three-wave A-B-C corrective rally in wave (B) that can retest 7-8 resistance area and form a nice Head&Shoulders pattern before we will see another sell-off for wave (C).
Happy trading!
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Mar 12, 22 NG Buy or Sell?So NG has been in a bit of a sideways channel lately....what is it waiting for? Some kinda news?
I have no idea if it will go up or down or will it end this week sideways?
Frustrating as hell but I'm thinking it might drop some next week. Who knows though right?
Thoughts??
Heiko