NatGas: GeyserLike a geyser, NatGas is spouting upwards from the white zone between $6.255 and $6.684. We expect it to have enough drive to reach the resistance at $8.065 soon. There, it should gain some more momentum to make it into the orange zone between $8.559 and $9.241, where wave (5) in white as well as wave iii in orange should end. However, there is a 42% chance that NatGas could rebound off the line at $8.065 and subsequently drop below $6.466. In that case, it should fall into the green zone between $5.687 and $4.939 first before rising back above $6.466 and further toward $8.065.
Natgas
Apr 26, 22 NG-Time to ride it up?I put in a Buy Order at 6.9 as I just read that Russia is going to turn OFF the gas deliveries to Poland starting Wed Morning.
I am expecting NG to go up with NG in Europe as Poland will have to get it's supplies from other countries - like the U.S. maybe?
We shall see but maybe I can make some money back on what I lost last month :-)
Stay safe!!
Heiko
USOIL - Choppy but still bearishYesterday, we showed a bearish breakout in the RSI of USOIL. Although, later, during the trading session, this breakout became invalidated, and RSI moved back above the horizontal support. Despite that, we remain bearish on the USOIL, and our price targets stay in place.
Illustration 1.01
The idea above shows yesterday's intraday breakout below the support in the RSI on the daily time frame chart.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX exhibits growth which signals that the bearish momentum is gaining strength. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the retracement in the RSI on the daily chart.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bearish. MACD performed a bearish crossover recently; however, it remains in the upper area of the bullish zone. DM+ and DM- show bullish conditions in the market, with ADX suggesting their further deterioration. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
ABC Still correcting?Missed most of the wave up, but it hasn't broken the high so it could correct and then move a lot higher. Weekly log scale pitchfork holds the price incredibly well.
NATURAL GAS Multi-year Cycles.Natural Gas (NG1!) has been one of the most profitable trading assets of the year offering great returns. On a long-term scale though (1W time-frame on this chart) it has starting to form a peak pattern, which we have seen previously in the past 20 years.
I've plotted the Sine Waves on the chart to more efficiently illustrate NG's long-term cycles. Currently it is within a Bull Cycle having formed a Golden Cross (MA50 crossing above the MA200) last June. However after every 1W Golden Cross since 2000, the market made a Top shortly after. This was disrupted this year due to the Ukraine-Russia war and as a result the price negated the peak of October 2021 and broke outside the Sine Wave.
This is not the first time we see that. On the upside this took place in December 2003 - January 2004 and on the downside in June 2015. If 2004 - 2005 is repeated, we should see the price pull-back immediately towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and within this year towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), and then rebound on Higher Highs/ Higher Lows towards the next Sine Wave to form a Top. On the other hand, this is negated if we get 2 straight weekly (1W) candle closings below the 1W MA200 or if the December 2021 low of 3.535 breaks first.
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USOIL - A gloomy outlook for WTI oilA few weeks ago, we noted that we believe USOIL peaked and is headed lower. Indeed, we set a long-term price target of 90 USD. Now, we would like to change this price target to medium-term and set a new long-term price target of 80 USD. Additionally, we would also like to set a short-term price target of 95 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Yellow arrows indicate the recent bullish breakout (above the trendline) and subsequent loss of momentum.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-, which recently performed the bearish crossover. In addition to that, ADX halted its decline, suggesting the resumption of the bearish trend. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish for WTI oil.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are developing bearish structures. MACD performed the bearish crossover. DM+ and DM- show bullish conditions in the market. However, ADX signals that the bullish trend is losing momentum. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Startring to short natural gasNatural gas was off my radar for obvious reasons. I am starting to think it is getting ridiculously over priced and perhaps some noob hedgefunds have been already short squeezed or in the process of being squeezed.
My plan is to short now (3% at my portfolio) and if we go the the next resistance, around 8.5$ I will commit another 3%.
Target take profit around 5$.
I mean the war can go on for a long time. But then we have the summer and I have some hopes by the May 9th, where the Russians have their parade they will say we have won the war and end it :)
NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE
NatGas UpHey.
NatGas, I'm betting that it goes up again after a little retracement. As far as I'm aware, there is still bullish sentiment on US Natural Gas, given the macroeconomic situation with Russia and everything.
God bless, and safe trading!
Remember, taking a bet in trading is okay, as long as you keep your stop losses tight. No need to lose your whole wallet on a single trade.
Peace out, in Jesus' name.
Disclaimer: I do not swear to abide by Tradingview's "House Rules", and therefore I won't be mad if my idea is hidden. I will never swear on anything, because Jesus told us not to.
I simply want to publish my idea.
Nat Gas Should Hold Support @ $6.5The natural gas market has been supply constrained ever since the Russian ukraine war started. The war is significant to the natural gas market because Russia is the worlds 2nd largest producer of natural gas. Russia also holds 20% of the worlds natural gas reserves. NAT GAS is trading above a crucial 10 year resistance level around $6.5, we broke this level around April 13th. Since breaking that level we saw NAT GAS trade up to $6.5, now we are seeing NAT GAS come back down to this level, I believe we see this $6.5 level hold and NAT GAS move higher
NATURAL GAS 📉📉📉Expecting bullish price action on this pair but simply on a fundamental reason, price tapped on 7.0$ institional figure taking out some retail stops below this price area and for now we are going for the ATH - ALL TIME HIGH.
What do you think ? Comment below..
WTI oil - The EU ban on Russian oil risks higher pricesRecently, we stated that USOIL has bottomed out and is due to drift lower during the rest of the year. We continue to maintain this stance. However, over the past few days, there has been an increase in talks about the EU ban on Russian oil. Indeed, several media outlets reported that the EU is about to proceed with this step. Though, it is just a rumor at the moment. But if the EU manages to ban Russian oil, it will force us to abandon bearish bias for USOIL. Actually, in such a case, we think the oil ban would revive the rally and drag prices higher, possibly reaching a new high.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows USOIL on the daily time frame. It also shows the resistance at a slope (white line) and the bullish breakout above it (indicated by the yellow arrow). We will look for a potential breakdown in price and invalidation of the bullish breakout.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and MACD are bearish. However, MACD is trying to break above 0 points into the bullish zone. If it manages to do so, it will bolster the case for USOIL. Stochastic reversed to the upside and points in the bullish direction. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. However, ADX contains a low value, indicating no significant trend. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI started to flatten recently. However, its bearish structure remains intact. MACD is in the bullish zone; however, it began to decline first and then flatten. Stochastic is bearish. DM+ and DM- signal bullish conditions in the market. ADX declines, which suggests that the prior bullish trend of a higher degree is weakening. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above portrays the weekly RSI of USOIL. The bearish structure can be seen intact.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NATGAS D4: 250%+ gains BEST level to BUY/HOLD (SL/TP)(NEW)Why get subbed to to me on Tradingview?
-TOP author on TradingView
-15+ years experience in markets
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-Supply/Demand Zones
-TD9 counts / combo review
-Key S/R levels
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NATGAS D4: 250%+ gains BEST level to BUY/HOLD (SL/TP)(NEW)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: NATGAS monthly price chart review
::: chart looks strong / favors BULLS
::: natural gas STRONG BULL MARKET
::: 200% upside from current level
::: massive breakout in progress
::: expanding triangle bottom formation
::: we just got a clean breakout of the pattern
::: best strategy: MARKET BUY/HOLD IT
::: best reload BULLS:MARKET BUY NOW
::: TP bulls is 250% gains final TP 17.50 USD
::: we are currently entering commodities super cycle
::: prices are set to increase 100-300% over next 24 months
::: speculative setup always do your own due dill
::: fresh liquidity will be targeted by BULLS
::: BUY/HOLD setup do not expect miracle/fast gains
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
::: N/A
::: N/A
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies
::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A
::: Sentiment mid-term: BULLS/SUPERCYCLE
::: Sentiment outlook short-term: BEARS/PULLBACK
RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Apr 17, 22 - NG Hitting ATH AgainI'm OUT! Crazy how high NG is going so I pulled the plus and got out of my losing trade.
As I said on Friday's post update, I will see how Sun night and Mon goes but if it keeps going up I will probably exit around 7.5 - that's what I did.
I won't be getting into a SELL position anytime soon - NG has to have some serious downdraft in order for me to get back in.
Meanwhile, my Wheat Buy Order is doing well so I will focus over there for now.
I will keep you updated on any other trades I do.
Heiko