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NATURAL GAS - Time to Pipeline a Short Position!Natural gas prices have soared in Europe in the past year, adding to inflationary pressure and threatening to dent consumer confidence. U.S. natural gas is in for another wild year as the insularity that once shielded North American energy consumers from overseas turmoil disintegrates. Benchmark American gas futures climbed almost 45% in 2021 for the strongest annual performance in half a decade after a deadly freeze that crippled output was followed by summer heatwaves that lifted demand and hindered efforts to stow away supplies for winter. Bulgaria's energy regulator said on Saturday it has approved a 30.4% increase of the wholesale natural gas price for this month, following a request by Bulgargaz, the Balkan country's main gas provider and public supplier. These news are what you would call 'Bullish' but we stick to the chart! Price has had such fluctuations before and history is our guide to what might happen next. In the meantime, Europe Plans to Say Nuclear Power and Natural Gas Are Green Investments (funny) but Spain objects for a variety of reasons (It makes no sense and it sends the wrong signals for the energy transition of the whole of the EU). There is off course Russia, Qatar, USA and many new players in this game (especially in the Eastern Mediterranean basin). More supply. more pipelines more funds ready to invest in this? The answer is Yes, to all. The Nord Stream 2 Russia-to-Germany pipeline could offer plentiful natural gas. But tensions with Vladimir Putin are keeping it out of reach. And how about China? Russia’s giant state-owned energy company, is slated to finalize an agreement in 2022 for a second huge natural gas pipeline running from Siberia to China , marking yet another stage in what energy analysts and Western diplomats say is a fast-evolving gas pivot to Asia by Moscow. They see the pivot as a geopolitical project and one that could mean trouble for Europe. To cut the long story short: We are going short under the resistance level and obey to our chart! One Love, the FXPROFESSOR
NShort
by FX_Professor
Natural Gas Forecast: Working Off Selling PressureThe natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the session on Thursday, hanging about the $3.80 level. Over the last year or so, I have been asked to do less analysis on natural gas, but quite frankly my email box has been full of questions as to what is going to happen with natural gas next. Retail traders have no idea, nor do some professional traders for that matter, that this contract is based solely upon the United States, meaning that what is going on in Europe or Asia has very little effect. In fact, the United States only exports 12,000,000,000 ft.³ a year, which seems like a lot but it is not. Currently, Rotterdam gas futures are trading at about nine times what the Henry Hub contract is. That can bring in a little bit of demand but transporting natural gas across the ocean is not easy. Because of this, a lot of retail traders that I have been contacted from have lost a fortune in this contract over the last month or so. It is because they do not understand that they need to pay attention to US weather patterns, and basically ignore what is going on in their own backyard. If you did not know this, do not be ashamed. I have recently had a conversation with somebody who runs a larger commodity fund who had no idea that natural gas contracts were so localized. He trades millions of dollars, which tells you just how uninformed some people can be. That being said, I felt the need to do this video due to the fact that somebody of you have been losing money as you are watching problems with Vladimir Putin delivering gas to the EU, etc. Temperatures in the United States should be much milder than initially thought for most of the winter, meaning that the United States, which is absolutely swimming in natural gas, will continue to see lower pricing. We have recently gapped lower, and I do think that we will try to fill that gap as most futures markets will tend to do. I will be shorting this contract of the first signs of exhaustion near the 200 day EMA which happens to be at the top of the gap, right around $4.16. We have seen the high for the winter, as we are trading the January contract already, meaning that before you know it will be trading springtime contracts.
OANDA:NATGASUSD
by SmoothJB
NATURAL GAS - BEARS followed by BULLSI believe the price is going to fall rapidly this week (Monday 22nd - Friday 26th) and start growing up again on Monday 29th. First of all technically 0,786 resistance survived the friday attack which only confirms the price downtrend. Fundamentals are on the bear side too because temperature in Europe and USA is going to be high this week. Lesser demand and high production of natural gas can send the price right through 4.73 support down to the next support at 3.66. If you want to play safe I recommend exiting the short position at 4.73 support and see how it plays out. Anyways the price fall should create a great opportunity for entering a big long position at 3.66. Its target will greatly depend on weather but I suspect it might rally again to the October 21st maximum of 6.45. Good luck and don't forget to set stop losses to keep your money safe. By the way good idea to decide how much to invest is to decide entry point and stop loss point then decide how much money you are willing to risk and count the position margin according to the stop loss (amount of money you're willing to risk). Oh and this is my first published idea on tradingview so please leave a piece of advice in the comments if you feel like it.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by Stribogius