Natgas
NATURAL GAS Expecting a dead-cat-bounce. Get ready to sell it.Natural Gas (NG1!) has been trading within a long-term Falling Wedge pattern since the April 2023 Low, with its latest Lower High coming right at the top of June 11 2024.
With a short-term bullish divergence on the 1D RSI, we expect to see a 'dead-cat-bounce' in August, which even though it might get as high as the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level to price yet another Lower High, an acceptable level to get a sell entry again, would be the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Our Target is 1.400, which would be the -0.5 Fibonacci extension (where the February 20 2024 Lower Low was priced), even though the Wedge's technical Lower Low extends as low as 1.200.
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NATGAS Technical Analysis! BUY!
My dear friends,
NATGAS looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 1.994 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 2.084
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Natural Gas...New All time lows? Natural gas has seen a failed breakout on the daily chart. After this failed breakout occured its been weeks of relentless sell side pressure.
We have lost key weekly and daily supports, which doesn't help the bullish case.
There is 1 small positive on the daily chart: a positive RSI bullish divergence.
Understanding how this commodity works, one should be prepared for a downside case of $1.60. Its not a guarantee but a possibility.
The Nat gas resource stocks are mixed and showing sings of volume accumulation.
I'm watching the $1.95 Gap fill on Nat Gas very closely. If the bulls defend that area we could rally quickly.
Keep your eye om the "Death Cross" signal, usually a buy signal for a short term bounce.
Natural Gas SurfingZones and levels or shapes for potential support/resistance forces that might influence this market in the future. Dotted path is an envisioned scenario which doesn't need to manifest necessarily but the overall picture might come in handy if the market shows signs of synchronicity with the design.
Starting off with the resistance met at the cyan rectangle where I have 2 scenarios in mind: reversal, or consolidation and a break. I am more inclined to believe that bullish pressure could weaken here so I marked the spot with a down arrow.
Will provide updates as we go along, looking to see 4 or 5 interesting events at the elements in the snapshot, also looking to see some interesting hits on the icons, preferably with a wave that coincides with their path.
Natural Gas: Will the bulls ever come back? Another sell side day for nat gas...what else is new?
back to the same technical support trend line for Nat gas. technically this is support. If this trend line holds we will see an epic bounce IMO.
If we break this are we could be testing $1.90.
I believe that this is still a great risk to reward to accumulate for the long term, while understanding there could still be another 20% down if we break this level...so HODL accordingly.
NATGAS What Next? SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the NATGAS next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 2.124
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 2.095
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
3 Events to Watch: CrowdStrike, 25th Amendment, & US weather 3 Events to Watch: CrowdStrike, 25th Amendment, & US weather
CrowdStrike Oversold?
A widespread outage on Friday left computer screens blue, grounded flights, halted hotel check-ins, and disrupted freight deliveries, forcing businesses to revert to paper and pen.
The incident, allegedly triggered by an update from CrowdStrike (down ~12%), also affected Microsoft’s Windows (down 0.7%).
Running into the fire is Cathie Wood's ARK ETFs, with a significant acquisition of CrowdStrike valued at approximately $13.24 million, through ARKW and ARKF ETFs.
Biden Steps Aside
President Joe Biden announced today his decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party’s nominee.
While Harris is poised to become the nominee, confirmation will come at the Democratic National Convention from August 19-22 in Chicago.
The key market-moving news from this event could hinge on Harris’s choice of running mate.
There is also speculation around the use of the 25th Amendment, which could theoretically see Biden removed from office early, though no officials have indicated such intentions.
US Natural Gas Futures Plummet
US natural gas futures plummeted over 10% to below $2.1/MMBtu last week, influenced by milder weather and reduced feedgas to LNG export plants. This price drop occurred despite expectations of a return to hot weather in late July and early August, which should increase demand for gas-fired electricity to power air conditioners. Meteorologists project near-normal temperatures across the Lower 48 states through July 25, with a hotter-than-normal trend anticipated through at least August 3.
NATGAS My Opinion! SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on NATGAS and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 2.313 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 2.282
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NATGAS: Long Signal with Entry/SL/TP
NATGAS
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long NATGAS
Entry Point - 2.330
Stop Loss - 2.196
Take Profit - 2.580
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Natural Gas Bleeding LowerNatural gas has seen negative price action since we got the golden cross.
The 50 & 200 moving average is touted as a bullish signal but often sold into in the near term.
This sell off in Nat gas is going quick and deep.
The problem with that is the sector is leveraged with triples & doubles.
If we complete the measured move down, we should see a bit lower price.
Intra day I would not be surprised for a sharp dead cat bounce.
NATGAS Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for NATGAS below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 2.601.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 2.745
Recommended Stop Loss - 2.506
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NATGAS GROWTH AHEAD|LONG|
✅NATGAS is about to retest a key structure level of 2.40$
Which implies a high likelihood of a move up
As some market participants will be taking profit from short positions
While others will find this price level to be good for buying
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bullish correction
LONG🚀
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NATGAS Technical Analysis! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for NATGAS below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 2.719
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 2.831
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Natural Gass CompassIn this one I use my preferred charting tool that uses data points from the past: Curved Trendlines. While there are other variations of such lines that I might use depending on the context, in this case the pattern low-high-high or high-low-low is widely detected as relevant and used as such for mapping out potential forces and support/resistance zones.
As you can see there is a relevant potential support zone validated by both the white curve and the blue curve which overlap further in time. There will be no surprises if the these levels keep holding the price for a while.
The yellow one is the weakest one in my opinion, because of the peculiar case on natural gas that doesn't provide much options for such support/resistance lines, because of the X high that was created in a strong but weird position relative to past highs and lows. Meaning that if the yellow is broken on the up, it might not even matter in the future because a different setup might unfold, creating a totally different type of line in any type of pattern regarding previous highs and lows.
What I like about these lines is that the relevant ones tend to provide clear cut cases of rebounds (example in the white dot), retests after break (green dot), or even pure power breaks with no comebacks (yellow dot).
The scenarios I find important in this picture are the following:
- the obvious potential rebound from the white and blue
- the less obvious but very important break on the downside of the white and blue which has a higher chance of a retest because of the significance of these lines (these retests tend to happen for these long lasting lines with many data points)
- supposing the yellow line does hold, or if another similar resistance line appears after another high lower than X, and supposing the white is finally penetrated, we enter the C zone which I believe has a decent probability for action inside it.
I find the B zone less likely to be relevant as it implies the breaking of the white which should lead to a more bearish or consolidation mood rather that another power bullish move.
I decided to post this snapshot here with these lines because as you can see the price has provided decent relevant lines in the recent past with the greens and blue, while in the current present case, these lines are almost non existent because of the position of the X high relative to the previous highs and lows.
My guess is that a careful analysis of the reaction of the market to these lines could give us clues of what the sentiment in the market is, shifting from the bullish mood to a more cautious neutral or indecision mood with the break of the white and blue.
NATGAS The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for NATGAS is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 2.918
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 2.792
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK