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NATGAS Trading Opportunity! SELL! My dear subscribers, NATGAS looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 2.252 pivot level. Bias - Bearish My Stop Loss - 2.355 Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 2.090 About Used Indicators: The average true range ATR plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by AnabelSignals
2
NATYY Bullish H&S StructureQuite clear H&S shoulder pattern has developed on NATTY which began accumulating at the beginning of March of this year. The green rectangle is the base of the massive accumulation zone which has acted as support previously, now turned resistance. There's been 2 prior attempts at breaking through, on the third, it broke but wasn't able to hold. The target is c15% increase in price and also takes us to the gap on 22nd Jan - this was calculated using the distance between the top and bottom of the cup. GOOD LUCK!
CAPITALCOMSB:NATURALGASLong
by SkyTrees
30
Oil setting itself up for a rebound after six days of sellingAmid a quick change in the market sentiment in mid-April 2024 and subsequent weakness in stocks, West Texas Intermediate crude oil (USOIL) retreated from its highs to $78 per barrel. In the process, USOIL broke below the lower bound of the ascending channel, and the daily time frame turned bearish, with MACD crossing below the midpoint, Stochastic falling into the lower area, and RSI approaching 30 points. The weekly time frame also turned slightly bearish, with MACD, Stochastic, and RSI reversing; nevertheless, it must be noted that MACD remains in the bullish zone, and ADX contains a relatively low value, hinting at a neutral or very weak trend on the medium time frame. As for the monthly time frame, technicals indicate a sideways-moving market as well. From a bigger perspective, USOIL appears in the range that has been under development since early 2023, defined by roughly $83 on the top and $70 on the bottom. In the smaller picture, USOIL experienced a decline of approximately 11% just within the past six trading sessions, potentially setting it up for a rebound; should it occur, close attention will be paid to the resistance level at $79.72, which has acted as a barrier on multiple occasions throughout the past half year. In the event of a failure, the attention will be shifted to the support at $76.82 and $75.56, where buying interest might emerge. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows USOIL’s daily chart. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower bound of the channel. Illustration 1.02 The illustration above depicts the daily graph of MACD. The yellow arrow highlights a crossover through the midpoint, normally a bearish development. Technical conditions Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish (weak trend) Monthly time frame = Neutral OPEC’s workshop As a result of the directives of the OPEC’s meeting held on 3rd April 2024, member countries with outstanding overproduced volumes were required to submit detailed compensation plans by 30th April 2024. In accordance with that, OPEC held a workshop on 3rd May 2024 to share compensation plans for Iraq and Kazakhstan for their outstanding overproduced volumes for the months of January, February, and March 2024, which totaled about 602,000 barrels per day for Iraq and 389,000 barrels per day for Kazakhstan. Houthi’s aggression Yemen's Houthi attacks on commercial shipping are escalating and spreading beyond the confines of the Red Sea. After the targeting of the MSC Orion on 26th April 2024, positioned 600 kilometers (375 miles) off Yemen's coast, another assault occurred merely two days later, on 29th April 2024, hitting the ship Cyclades near Mokha, Yemen. This increasing aggression highlights the region's growing instability, compounded by the United States and its allies' failure to curb the situation through airstrikes on Yemeni targets earlier this year. Hamas-Israel negotiations After months of stalled negotiations, Hamas representatives arrived in Cairo, Egypt, over the weekend for another round of ceasefire talks with Israel. Major media outlets reported that a truce is closer than ever before. Nonetheless, significant hurdles remain beneath the surface as both sides hesitate to make concessions. Hamas is adamant about the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and obtaining a guarantee from the United States that Israel will not launch a ground invasion of Rafah. Meanwhile, Israel maintains its stance that it will proceed with the invasion regardless. In addition to that, Israel’s hawks are vocal that even if a ceasefire deal is reached, it will not mark the end of the war. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
2
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook: The tables have turned for riskWhile we await earnings from Nvidia (on 22 May) that will be influential on future market direction, we move into the tail-end of US quarterly earnings, but also past a dovish Fed meeting, a strong US ECI report and weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls and 2 hefty bouts of MoF/BoJ intervention. Yet, despite these landmines, a gentle calm descends over financial markets – early last week the USD was threatening to trend higher, but now momentum shifts to the downside, with US Treasuries finding better buyers, US interest rate markets pricing close to two cuts by year-end, while the VIX index has pulled back to 13.5%, with the S&P500 closing above the 29 April high. By way of significant movers - aside from a lazy 25% w/w fall in Cocoa and a 32% w/w gain in Nat Gas – where NG needs to be on the radar given the breakout and the growing potential for a bullish trend to materialise, we see solid movement in the HK50 (closing 6.9% wow), while Bitcoin has rallied 10% off its lows and is eyeing a move back to the 50-day MA at 65,890. In FX, CADJPY saw the biggest 5-day percentage change, falling 3.6% w/w. The MAG7 equity names look to have regained their mojo, amid solid earnings and some lofty guidance for capex - suggesting growth and innovation remain at the core of their investment thesis, backed by renewed buybacks and some big names even rolling out dividends. China tech is also flying higher, where both Tencent and Alibaba have run hard of late and while overbought should be well supported into weakness. How the tables have turned, and the reassuring view from Fed Chair Jay Powell that policy is still “sufficiently restrictive” and “it’s unlikely the next policy move will be a hike” has reinvigorated the risk bulls. Add in a weaker US ISM services print and a moderation in US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and the market has gained greater confidence that the US economy is not indeed overheating. Conviction levels may still be low, but the platform is in place for risky assets to move higher this week, notably if truce talks in Gaza gain real traction. Looking ahead and the landmines through which we navigate positions: US data is thin on the ground this coming week, with the senior loan officer survey on bank lending practices really the only economic event risk to be concerned with – traders can trade the KRE ETF (US Regional bank ETF) here and react to markets interpretation of the survey. We also get 11 speeches from Fed members, but until we get the US (April) CPI report on 15 May, I suspect traders will not be too concerned with holding risk over their respective views. It will be a lively week at a central bank level, with the RBA (on hold), BoE (on hold), Swedish Riksbank (skewed to cut), Banxico (cut) and Brazilian Central Bank (50bp cut) all meeting. We should get a 25bp cut in Mexico, with a 50bp cut expected to the Brazilian Selic rate. The RBA meeting and Statement on Monetary policy will get big focus, and while the RBA will almost certainly keep rates at 4.35%, and continue to suggest “the board is not ruling anything in or out”, Aussie swaps price a near 40% chance of a hike by August (see pricing below), so many are expecting a modest shift in their commentary and a clearer roadmap to future hikes – if we don’t see that play out in the wording then we could see the AUD trade lower, notably vs the FX cross rates. The GBP navigates Thursday’s BoE meeting, with the broad consensus expecting a dovish split in the voting and a statement that justifies the view priced into interest rate pricing, where the BoE is expected to embark on its first cut in August. We also get UK Q1 GDP, a speech by BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill and 1-year inflation expectations from the DMP (Decision Makers Panel), and that could be looked at by some in the market. GBPJPY and GBPAUD shorts, EURGBP longs, were the preferred plays last week, and I still favour these staying in these positions. Wednesday’s Riksbank meeting puts the SEK (Swedish krona) firmly in play, with economists split on whether we see the Swedish central bank join the Swiss National Bank in starting its easing cycle. The SEK swaps market implies a 25bp cut at around 80% probability, so those holding SEK short positions will have some concern with that position over this event. The risk-to-reward trade-off favours short NOKSEK over the meeting, but a 25bp cut is a lineball call and as many will attest to, trading over news like this is more of an exercise in risk management, or for those running tactical or special situation strategies. We also see inflation prints in Mexico, Norway, Columbia, Chile, Brazil, and China. Trade data (Thursday – no set time) from China will also get a focus, with imports expected to increase by 4%. In Japan, I guess kudos go to the MoF/BoJ - they hit JPY shorts hard with two bouts on size intervention and as luck would have it, they’ve been given a helping hand from Jay Powell and the first below estimate NFP print since October 2023. Those using the JPY to fund a saturated carry position will almost certainly think twice about using the JPY tactically here in the near term, and until we see a better trend in the US data, or if we see a hotter US CPI print, USDJPY has scope for ¥150. Conversely, on the week, I’d be expecting the upside to be capped at ¥155 and would be selling rallies into ¥155.50. As always, an open mind to market movement (as price will always go to where it wants to go), and a dynamic approach to react will serve you well in this market.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
NATGAS My Opinion! SELL! My dear friends, NATGAS looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 2.150 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 1.994 Recommended Stop Loss - 2.252 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by AnabelSignals
1
NATURAL GAS Can turn bullish on the short-term.Natural Gas (NG1!) has been posting Higher Lows, three so far since the February 20 Low, despite the fact that it remains within a Channel Down since the October 27 2023 High. This might be a short-term trend change similar to the Channel Up that started on the April 14 2023 Low following a sharp and long-term selling sequence. Notice also the Higher Lows Bullish Divergence on the 1D RSI patterns. As long as the bottom of the (dotted) Channel Up holds, we will be bullish short-term, targeting the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at 2.050. If the bottom of the Channel Down breaks, we will turn bearish, targeting the Lower Lows trend-line at 1.400. The risk is low on both sides. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:NG1!
by TradingShot
1
Oil could go to $90 and higher if this happens...Since the eruption of the war between Hamas and Israel in early October 2023, we have been occasionally reporting on some of the developments in the oil-rich region. In one of the more recent articles, we outlined how Israel’s deadly airstrike against Iranian generals in Damascus, Syria, was likely to provoke retaliation from Iran and its proxies. On Saturday, Iran followed through and launched a large-scale attack on Israel. Per media reports, Iran sent approximately 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles, most of which were intercepted outside of Israel’s airspace with the help of Israel’s allies, including the United States. The attack sparked a discussion of retaliatory strike against Iran within Israel’s war cabinet, with officials not being able to agree on a timeline. Initially, it was announced Israel would reciprocate aggression in a window of 24 to 48 hours. However, just shortly before the futures market opened on Monday, Israel’s officials backtracked their plans, noting the country was not looking for significant escalation of the conflict while leaving a possibility of payback on the table. Besides the attack, there was also news concerning Iran’s seizure of the Israel-linked MV MSC Aries cargo ship (operated by Geneva-based Mediterranean Shipping Company and owned by Gortal Shipping) off the Strait of Hormuz. At the moment, it does not seem very probable there will be some sort of disruption to cargo or tankers transiting through the area, but keep in mind that about 21 million barrels per day were transiting through here in 2022, which is about three times more than oil passing through the Red Sea before the start of the Israel-Hamas War. All in all, the geopolitical situation in the region progresses from bad to worse, carrying many unknowns. But judging by how things are unfolding, there is a high chance of a conflict passing beyond a point of no return, which, in turn, has profound implications for the oil market and could see the oil price rise above $90 per barrel (and potentially to the upper $90 per barrel). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly