Nat Gas: Heating Up into the WinterBrief Overview on Natural Gas
Natural Gas is a commodity generally traded on the premise of weather forecasts indicating cooler or warmer seasons. This allows traders to speculate on demand for the product as it generally trades higher with cooler temperatures. Today we are looking at the weekly chart.
Thesis: Technical Analysis Pointing to a Bounce
This analysis is mainly focused on the lasting demand zone that Natural Gas time and time again respects and typically bounces from. The weekly chart points to the likelihood that the R/R is favorable for a long position at these levels in the 2.20's. Not only do we see NG tap back into this heavy demand zone, but we also can see a Cup & Handle on the weekly chart signaling potential greater upside.
Demand Zone offers strong R/R as it dips back in to these levels.
Cup & Handle can represent even further upside, but will rely on the initial rebound to prompt the possibility of it playing out.
There is also a trendline (not pictured) that is supporting the current bounce we are seeing today from the 2.18/2.19 level. It is important to note that the commodity has been seeing higher lows since the Spring.
Lastly, a tap of fundamentals play into this idea as well. Though winter demand is always priced in, this year forecasts have repeatedly painted the picture that this winter will be historically mild. Due to these forecasts implying less seasonal demand for Nat Gas, a shift in the shorter-term and more accurate models as we approach the winter season will sharply move the price of Nat Gas and represents that the current price is truly pricing in a very mild winter. This basis supports the idea of great R/R on this LONG trade idea.
Disclosure
I am currently in a long position in Natural Gas after entering on the Friday (10/18) Close
My position includes: AMEX:UNG Credit Spread 13/12P , AMEX:BOIL common shares
If this thesis holds up, I would plan to roll my credit spread contracts into further expirys
Thanks for reading!
Not Financial Advice
Natgasbuy
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NATGAS LONG TERM TRADEBUYINGHello Traders
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today NATGAS analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (NATGAS market update)
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This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
NATURAL GAS ( XNGUSD ) Long Term Trading IdeaHello Traders
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This Video is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts.
NatGas Cup and Handle in the making?On my first public analysis, I suggested that NatGas would reach its 2.66 resistance before any profit taking that could bring it back to its 2.42 support zone. Now that the first target is reached, and considering the strenght/speed at which it got there, I am leaning to the idea that we'll have a cup and handle and not another reverse H&S forming. Therefore, 2.54 is the new support I check. The 2.66 resistance could even be turned as a resistance without a pullback. If it hold, then 3.01 becomes possible short term. Remember that NatGas is usually bullish from March to May. Considering recent behavior of the price, and despite our overall warm winter, we are now getting ready for summer months.
NAS100The NAS100 index appears to be bullish, as it has been displaying a consistent upward trend in recent times. This is largely attributed to positive market sentiment and a strong earnings season, which have contributed to the overall bullish outlook. Additionally, technical analysis of the NAS100 chart suggests a potential continuation of the bullish trend, further reinforcing the optimistic outlook for the index
USGAS TAKE PROFIT HIT 📉📉📉📉 I CLOSED ALL TRADES IN PROFIT ON USGAS, we are still bullish on this asset from a fundamental/tehnical analysis context. My last target for this asset is 6.0,i think we will go there but not before price makes a retracement back into 5.0 institutional figure H4 Imbalance + bullish orderblock area.
What do you think ? Do you agree on my analysis ?
Natural Gas (NYMEX) - Weekly UpdateNatural Gas - Weekly
Bottom Line : "Big-picture" Bullish.
Repeating : The higher probability view is to label the Primary wave ((C)) decline as an ending diagonal to complete Cycle y . Ending diagonals are terminal structures. They are typically followed by swift reversals that retrace the entire length of the pattern. There’s not enough historical price data to confidently assess the wave degrees above Cycle, but a multi-year rally from the Cycle wave y low is likely to retrace the bulk of the decline from the 15.78 all-time high set in 2005 .
NATURAL GAS INTO 5.50 - 6.00 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bullish price action on NATURAL GAS as we have fundamental reasons behind a strong bullish move the war between Ukraine-Russia + sanctions that will affect the supply/demand of this asset, another fundamental reason why price will go higher way above 5.0 is because we have a BULLISH MARKET SEASONALITY till July.
From a technical perspective institutional figures 4.0 - 4.50 keeps the price bullish, we have a clear bullish market strucutre just be patient and ADD LONGS.
What do you think ?
NATURAL GAS LONGS 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bullish price action on this asset as the price of natural gas should rise from a seasonality point of view, we have a bullish market strucutre on H4/D1 timeframe as price keeps making higher highs and lower highs during the move, i will switch my bullish bias only if price will close bearish below the 4.0 area which is a important institutional level.
What do you think ? Comment below..
Well this interesting...Certain geopolitical events, rising prices in Europe and cold snaps across North America seem to be pushing Natural Gas higher. It's broken a key overhead resistance but upside will be limited. You can see some of the previous support lines which do correspond rather nicely with the last move downwards. This is strictly a short-term play unless other resistances and a falling dollar pickup pace.
Friday: Natural Gas - Week 29Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context - it's going exactly as we identified, the pattern in NGAS is clear and it's been moving beautifully and very lucrative!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
Thanks for the support!
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💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you!
RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
Tuesday: Natural Gas - Week 28Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
Thanks for the support!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SMASH that follow button! 👍
💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you!
RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
Gas Long SetupGas Long Setup
🔵 Entry: $2.740
🟢 TP & RR: $2.890 (2.14)
⛔ Stop Loss: $2.670
Trade Reasons:
✔️ Oversold Level Market Flow
✔️ Diagonal Trend Line Support
GAS Fibonacci Retracement - Long TradeGas Fib Retracement - Long Order
Entry: $2.407
TP & RR: $2.549 (3.38)
Stop Loss: $2.365
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
So far Gas has respected the Fibonacci levels twice, leading me to believe that we may see a bounce from the 0.236 level and a potential reversal. We also have a descending trendline, which I am not sure how well will be respected, but it's worth keeping in mind. The Stop Loss is set at a reasonable distance from the Fib level and the target is at the 0.5 level. Although, if a reversal follows from 0.238, we may keep at least part of our position for higher levels.
Gas Climbing Up - Long OrderGas Climbing Up - Long Position
Entry: $2.715
TP & RR: $2.877 (3)
Stop Loss: $2.661
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
So far price action has formed a diagonal trend line, so I believe if it respects that level the price should bounce up and head towards a double top. There's also the possibility that we don't get filled and the price starts trending up without us, which is fine. We want to put the SL at a level that makes sense and the only one such is just too far, giving us a pretty bad Risk:Reward Ratio.
GAS Testing Support Level - Long OrderGAS Testing Support Level - Long Position
Entry: $2.566
TP & RR: $2.673 (2.49)
Stop Loss: $2.523
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
This looks a lot like the infamous " market maker method ", so I am expecting the price to continue trending down even below my entry zone. The logical question is then why are we opening a long trade? Well, if this support holds and I believe it will, even for a short bounce, then the RR is pretty decent if the price reaches the upper trendline. We can then open a short order with a SL just above it.
My SL here is very tight and I do warn you that you may get stopped, so adjust it accordingly. I will use slightly less than my traditional trading size, thus limiting my loss, and be able to re-enter again if the setup turns out to be valid.
NATGAS BUY TP_4.008_38.97%_1.124pips_SL_2.649_8.15%_0.235pipsNATGAS BUY TP_4.008_38.97%_1.124pips_SL_2.649_8.15%_0.235pips