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Natgaslong

NATURAL GAS USD BUY ON WEEKLYWe going to continue to the price action between $1.862 and $1.957. Most importantly is its 50% level at $1.910. Trader reaction to this level will determine the direction of the March natural gas futures contract today. A trade through $1.862 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through $1.957 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum to the upside. If there is a breakout to the upside, $2.033 to $2.076 becomes the primary upside target.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by q12398
2
Natural Gas - EIA Natgas Storage ReportAfter Friday's drop I started to analyze Natural Gas with watching the fundamentals much closer. Cycles alone are simply not enough for predicting future price in this volatile commodity. Earlier this year I posted this idea : I still think that we printed the 3 year cycle low back in August.I updated a bit the idea chart - as I was early when I was waiting for the bottom in May: Techincals: After Friday's massacre price dropped enough to break the trendline, but at the end of the day we stayed in the rising channel. Monday price bounced and Tuesday we had a massive short squeeze as price broke through the 50 SMA and tagged the 200 SMA. The day finished well below the 200 SMA - and the 50 SMA too - but bears tasted a bit how overcrowded the short side and this is not a one way street. In the previous idea I was calling an early DCL on the 11th October: but now it's clear it was only a half cycle low and we are back to the stretched daily cycles which are 75-85 days long. The trendline break is quite normal at the daily cycle low just as the Bollinger Band crash signal and the 6 day RSI in the oversold territory. So after the Aug.2. intermediate cycle low we have a DCL in place last Friday: Who trusts in cycles - I do - knows that after the first DCL there is a good chance that the next daily cycle will right translate with a higher high above the November high. So cycle wise I'm still expecting a daily cycle top somewhere above 2.8$. And here comes the the advance of cycles vs to the fundamental traders. Fundamental traders are still expecting 2.5-2.6 maximum on this bounce , but I don't want to lose the possibility of a 1$ bounce because of the mild winter forecasts and global warming. I 've seen NatGas dropping on hard winters and we might see it bouncing on a mild winter where sudden arctic blasts are painting the picture and confusing the forecasts. Fundamentals: I'm closely monitoring the near-term computer model outlook. This will be the main driver of NatGas prices in the following days.The drop on Tuesday fundamentally was driven by the December 10-15 forecast of an arctic outbreak. I'm following 2 models: GFS Ensemble model and the ECMWF ensemble model. There is an interesting divergence between the 2 models. While both model is forecasting a colder than normal mid December weather, the GFS coming in much colder than the ECMWF. GFS is showing blasts of arctic air after the the 13 of December causing significantly below normal temperatures. So fundamentally we have both doors open to break up or break down in the following weeks , but if I'm watching the cycles and fundamentals together - knowing how overcrowded the short side in this market - I'm convinced that the surprises will move this market to or above 3$ in the following 2 months. Today's report is coming out at 10:30 EST, the forecast is -22B.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by chartwatchers
48
NATGASUSD -AnalysisNATGASUSD is highly oversold on every single chart except the daily (M30, 1H, 2H, 4H). On the daily chart, while not oversold, we have reached the RSI support line we have held since August 2019 (3 mo.). This line can easily be broken, but it is here where I am taking a position with a tight stop loss. Price bounced from the 2.26 (0.236) fibb level, and will normally reach 0.50 fibb (2.37-2.40) before next big move. Another option - is that it is setting up a much larger bearish head and shoulders pattern, which is a common pattern as I have noticed and mentioned in previous analyses. Winter storms are still to come, even though this winter is predicted to be lighter than most. I think reaction was very strong in the past daily sell off, and should rebound to at least 2.37-2.40.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by gbleier
NATGAS bounced from support, potential for a further rise! NATGAS bounced off 2.255 where it could potentially rise further to 2.430. *Disclaimer.* Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by Pepperstone
2
NATGAS bounced from support, potential for a further rise! NATGAS bounced off 2.410 where it could potentially rise further to 2.660. *Disclaimer.* Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by Pepperstone
NATGASUSD bounced from support, potential for a further rise! NATGASUSD bounced off 2.410 where it could potentially rise further to 2.660. *Disclaimer.* Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by Pepperstone
2
NATGASUSD bounced from support, potential for a further rise! NATGASUSD bounced off 2.450 where it could potentially rise further to 2.660. *Disclaimer.* Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by Pepperstone
1
NATGAS approaching support, potential for a further rise! NATGAS approaching support at 2.450 where it could potentially rise further to 2.660. *Disclaimer.* Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by Pepperstone
NatGas - Siberian Express"Arctic blast could break 200 records as historic 'Siberian express' brings cold front" This is what I was waiting for. We printed a daily key reversal today. I 'm posting this idea today because I think a long entry today or early tomorrow will be profitable in the following 2-3 weeks. On the 11th of October we printed a DCL . The first daily cycle was 49 days long. Natty after the ICL usually has longer 70-75 days long dcl so this one was an exception. After a short daily cycle the chance is high we get a longer daily cycle but even if we have a normal cycle it will be 70-75 days long. The peak here should come between day 30 and 40 (or if this is a long cycle then day 45 is possible) so I'm expecting a daily cycle top between 25th November and 16th December. Tomorrow we have the NatGas storage data. I think as the weather turned cold the data will be very bullish again and it will push natgas above 2,8 tomorrow or Friday. If you take a look at the bigger picture : you can see that the last few days' drop was just the backtest of the 200 SMA and the break of 2,9 easily can push Natgas up to 3,8 by middle of December if the weather turns cold. The 50 and 200 MA is crossing over , and RSI left the oversold territory.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by chartwatchers
24
NATGAS reversed from resistance, potential drop! NATGAS reversed off its resistance at 2.785 where it could potentially drop further to 2.600. *Disclaimer.* Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
OANDA:NATGASUSDShort
by Pepperstone